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Six Flags Entertainment Corporation (FUN)

Q1 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, Apr 29, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day and welcome to the Cedar Fair First Quarter Conference Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Stacy Frole. Please go ahead.

Stacy Frole

Management

Thank you, Tracy. Good morning, and welcome to our first quarter earnings conference call. I am Stacy Frole, Cedar Fair’s Vice President of Investor Relations. Earlier today, we issued our 2015 first quarter earnings release. A copy of this release can be obtained on our website at www.cedarfair.com under Investor Relation, or by contacting our Investor Relations offices at 419-627-2233. On the call this morning are Matt Ouimet, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian Witherow, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I need to caution you that comments made during this call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These statements may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in such statements. You may refer to filings by the company with the SEC for a more detailed discussion of these risks. In compliance with SEC Regulation FD, this webcast is being made available to the media and the general public as well as analysts and investors because the webcast is opened to all constituents and prior notification has been widely and unselectively disseminated, all content of the call will be considered fully disclosed. Now I’ll turn the call over to Matt Ouimet.

Matt Ouimet

President

Thank you, Stacy, and good morning, everyone. As we mentioned during last quarter’s call, we are going to take a different approach today. Since our first quarter typically represents less than 5% of our expected full year net revenues, because most of our parks are closed for the winter season, we will provide only a brief summary of the first quarter result on this call and then spend the majority of our time discussing our longer term goals, strategies and initiatives. But just before I turn it over to Brian, I want to call out an important element of our business strategy that was particular evident to me as I toured the parks in preparation for our 2015 operating season. Cedar Fair is always been good at delivering great rides and attractions. And this year’s most notable entry Fury 325 at Carowinds is just laid it in a long history of record breaking coasters. Over the past two years, we’ve started to apply this same quality level commitment to our other lines of business. On the resort front, the newly refurbished Hotel Breakers exceed a point. We now provide accommodations that match the parts world class attraction. And the renovated and expanded Campgrounds at several of our parks now offer upscale cabins that are the first to fill up. On the retail front, the addition of Harmony Hall of 550 seat dining and entertainment facility at Carowinds has meaningfully improved the parks F&B per cap while reducing labor costs. Also the additional of innovation retail camps that like the New Candy Mega Store sweet spot that both Cedar Point and Kings Island are sure to be well received by guest of all ages. Lastly, new and renovated catering facilities at several of our parks including Cedar Point and Great America allow us to expand capacity and provide an enhanced guest experience for our catered event customers. It’s difficult to communicate asset quality in a call such as this, but I show these investments will make a difference to our guests and to our results in 2015 and for many years to come. I strongly encourage all of you to visit one of our parks and see firsthand what make Cedar Fair, a Cedar Fair. I would now like to turn the call over to Brian to discuss our 2015 first quarter financial results in more detail. Brain?

Brian Witherow

Management

Thanks Matt. The first quarter net revenues are up $6 million or 16% to $47 million, while operating cost and expenses are up $3 million or 3%. As Matt just mentioned, our first quarter represents a small percentage of our annual operating results as it included first quarter operations from our only year-round amusement park, Knott’s Berry Farm, and the end of March opening weekends of three seasonal parks, Carowinds, Kings Dominion and Great America. During the first quarter, we generated record attendance along with increases in all revenue categories including admissions, food and beverage, merchandise and games, and accommodations. The 3% increase in cost is primarily related to the strong unit price performance in the quarter up 20% and its impact on the reporting of non-cash equity base compensation. We also saw a nominal increase in cost of goods sold due to the increase in attendance. Partially offsetting these increased was a decrease in the first quarter operating cost, primarily related to the timing differences on offseason maintenance projects and planned expenditures on 2015 OpEx initiatives. Turning to the first quarter balance sheet for a moment, the solid start to our 2015 season is also reflected in differed revenues which are up $23 million or 33% to $93million when compared with the first quarter last year. This increase has been driven by positive early season momentum in the sale of season passes as well as strong early adoption of our all season dining program, which is being rolled out broadly across all our parks this year. While the earlier timing of Easter and some accelerated promotional programs contributed to a portion of the first quarter increase in differed revenues, season pass and all season dining sales have continued to strong into April and differed revenues remained up more than 20% year-over-year. We continue to believe that our season pass base and our new all season dining program represent meaningful areas of growth for us in 2015 and beyond. As of today, we have seven parks opened for operations and an eight Dorney Park opens this weekend. I am pleased to say all of our 2015 capital investment projects have opened or scheduled to open on time and on budget. Delivering our new attractions at the early as possible day helps to reinforce the solid price value proposition we rely upon to drive strong attendance and per caps and encourage as early season visitation. Obviously we are pleased with our great start so far in 2015 as the positive first quarter trends in terms of attendance and guest spending have continued into April. These early season trends put us on pace to deliver what we believe will be our six straight record year, but it is important to remember that the vast majority of our 2015 results are yet to come. Now, I’ll turn the call back over to Matt.

Matt Ouimet

President

Thank you, Brian. In early 2012, Brain, Richard Zimmerman and I presented our fund FUNforward strategic plan that targeted $450 million or more in adjusted EBITDA by 2016. Within the plan, we identified several initiatives we are relying upon to achieve our goal. We are please to say this solid execution of the initiatives has products results that are ahead of what we had originally forecast. With this in mind over the past year, we worked actively with our Board of Directors to establish the next generation of FUNforward. In doing so, we paid special attention to what was happening outside of our parks. The including trends that would represent both opportunities and threats. We also focused on our core competencies, some like park operations and the delivery of world class attractions have long legacy. While other like CRM and management have been installed over the past few years. As we look forward, it was satisfying to reflect on how far we come since we started putting in new management team together in June of 2011, but we are not sad about the past, let’s talk about the future. Beginning of this new chapter, we launched the first generation of our new corporate website today www.cedarfair.com. This site will play an important role in communicating the new Cedar Fair to potential partners, investors, vendors and future employees. To be clear, Cedar Fair’s guest are loyal to their parks and while many of them may appreciated the collective Cedar Fair story, the individual park websites will still be the primary online to for our guests. But as we operate under a house of brand approach with each part owning a unique brand build over many years, our new corporate website will allow us to combine all that is happening into one…

Brian Witherow

Management

Thanks Matt. As you are aware, we do our best to be as transparent as we can be in regard to the allocation of our cash flow. This is fairly easy business to model as cash is primarily allocated to four areas, cash used for debt obligations including interest payment; cash used for taxes; cash used for capital investments and cash used for inner older return primarily distributions. Going forward, we expect annual cash interest payments to be approximately $85 million as the majority of our debt has been fixed through long term fix rate notes or interest rate swap agreement. At this point in time given we are within our targeted leverage ratio range of three to four debt to adjusted EBITDA, we do not intend to make any additional debt payments outside of our regular amortization requirements. Cash taxes are expected to be $20 million to $25 million this year and will continue to increase into 2016 and 2017 as the remainder of our NOLs are used up. Based on our performance projections, our current entity structure and an effective tax rate of approximately 28%, cash taxes are expected to increase to north of $50 million in the next few years. Over the past year, we’ve been analyzing various ways to optimize our entity structure. The options we’ve identified could result an effective tax rate approaching 25% an additional cash tax savings. However, we have more work to do as we analyze the implications of these options. We expect our review to be completed by the end of this year. On the capital investment front, we continue to believe investing new rides and attractions at our parks is critical to driving long term growth. For 2015, our capital program is at a peak level a $170 million driven…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We’ll go first to Afua Ahwoi.

Afua Ahwoi

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. One question, first I think in past given the current fiscal year or calendar year guidance, hit in the first, so is there, why is there, can you share with us to help us think about, I think it’s a long term guidance. And then the follow-up question on the - I think you mentioned is for the partnership established products with all companies of established productions, are you talking about some sort of IT or rise, I am just trying to get more specifics on that. Thank you.

Matt Ouimet

President

Sure. Good morning. So first let me linear little bit on 2015. I don’t want this audience to read anything into are not giving annual guidance as to anything less than absolute confidence in where we end up in 2015. So we have seen over the course of time that forecast, is it necessarily as helpful as it used to be, maybe there is for certain analyst. By the way I will acknowledge. And so we’ve decided to go to the long term targets. The other reason we want to do that is to make sure that we are making the best decisions both short and long terms. So we’re not going to provide annual guidance anymore, I think that the long term guidance probably fills that bill. On the second question, is that group does include as part of that group, people who have been electoral property that we’ve started to establish relationships with that we think can have a unique role in our parts and I am hopeful that that comes to lighter with the next six months.

Operator

Operator

And we’ll go next to Tim Conder from Wells Fargo Securities.

Tim Conder

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

Thank you. Matt, I just wanted to review the long term guidance, this is first question here. What revenue do you have baked into that or Matt or Brain either one. And then secondly, is it relates to overall season passes. Can you give us a little more color on the units, are those trending year-over-year, the attach rate, the dining pass. And then any consideration you guys are giving, I think you know you’ve said you’d look at it and maybe just give us an updated color related to looking at a more membership type modeling, you have the monthly payments available but more of the membership title models and what’s done elsewhere in the industry?

Brian Witherow

Management

Tim, it’s Brain. I’ll tackle the first couple of parts of that. As far as season pass trending, we - as we said on the call, we are very pleased with the early progress and trends that we’ve seen not only in season pass in terms of the numbers of units, but also the season pass dining program that’s being broadly rolled out. We’re not going to break out the level of detail between those but I can tell you from an adoption rate perspective at the park level, we are pacing ahead of our original plan and strongly enough at certain parks that we’ve already begun review taking pricing up and in fact one park in particular and that’s Berry Farm, we have taken pricing up on that as that park but in daily operations from day one. So we feel very good about where we are both of those product lines and initiatives. As far as the long term guidance has concerned, we talked to the 500 million of EBITDA line representing a 4% CAGR. I think we would expect something very similar to top line, maybe a little insight of that we are not pushing at this point or talking to growing margins dramatically at this point in time. That continues to be an areas or metric of focus for us but it’s not the end. So we’ll continue to make the right investments in the OpEx as we’ve talked as well as CapEx. But I think you can anticipate a top line growth rate that something close to that same 4%.

Matt Ouimet

President

And then Tim, this is Matt. Good morning. As to your other question about the potential of other programs, season pass programs, we have done a considerable amount of work. The ethic to our customer base and so I don’t want to go into details today about what the renewal program that will be. But at this point in time, you can anticipate that our path with be a little different than maybe others are doing in the industry, because I think our consumer base is different. So we are excited about the program will roll out this fall and I’ll lead with that for this call.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go next to Joel Simkins from Credit Suisse.

Christie Frederick

Analyst

This is Christie Frederick for Joel. I just had a question about the increased distribution that you mentioned, how should investors think about an increased dividend versus potentially repurchasing stock in the future.

Matt Ouimet

President

I’ll take that and Brain you can part along. Look, the core investment of these was proceed are fairly remains a fact that we need to produce the optimal amount of free cash flow and continue to grow the distribution aggressively and sustainably. And so that is the priority at this point in time, stock buyback is not a priority on our list.

Christie Frederick

Analyst

Great, thanks.

Operator

Operator

We’ll go next to Barton Crockett from FBR Capital Markets.

Barton Crockett

Analyst

Hi, thanks for taking the question. I was curious about the - about a couple of things, one is how you see current forecast fund this year, you have such strong growth in the differed revenues type of season pass from the all season dining, you know sometimes that can difference the that’s like a per capital that we see as we change the mix. Does that a phenomena that you expect to see this year or not? That’s my first question. And I guess the second question that is here is, if you could give us some detail on the tax structures your reviewing and get that MLP related or something completely different?

Matt Ouimet

President

Yeah, so Barton, your first question and - they are both good question I should say. Your first question though, we do have a little higher season pass mix in our attendance for the first quarter. But as Brain referenced we also saw increases in per cap spending in the parks. So we aren’t experiencing that traditional phenomena, we did a lot of work last year to understand season long spending of our season pass holders and we’re approaching at a little differently and again for purposes of this call, probably not appropriate to go into. But we have not seen the dilution of the per cap yet even though we have a higher mix of season pass hesitation so far this year. Now again keep in mind, it’s one small quarter and primarily now it’s vary from.

Brian Witherow

Management

Barton, it’s Brain. As it relates to the tax structure, I mean first let me remind everyone that the overall tax structure that we put back in place in 2006 with the parks acquisition has been very efficient and beneficial to the company and our unit holder over the years. However as the business results have continued to grow, we’ve begun to use of those NOLs and benefits that from those NOLs have begun to dry out. So as we look at a various options, we more contemplating in a number of scenarios of some of which where we would basically super charge our partnership structure. I think we have to remember the MLP structure are unique, assets up to Cedar Fair that we don’t want to just walk away from. But as we look at super charging that structure to reduce the overall effective tax rate, keep in mind that the gross income that we earn under those partnership structures are subject to a PTP excise fact, so it’s a zero some gain necessarily. So we’ll continue to do our homework. As we said on the call, we’ll be better positioned later year to comment on the direction of what we are go in, but there are certain limitation and certain things that we have to keep in mind the excess tax and the PTP structure being one of those. And the fact that we have for an interest in the case of Canada’s Wonderland that we won’t be able to get necessarily out of the partnership structure, those were are into the partnership structure I should say. So there are going to certain assets that will always reside in the C-corp entity world and that will continue to be the case going forward.

Operator

Operator

We’ll take our next question from Josh Borstein - Longbow Research.

Josh Borstein

Analyst

Hi good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions here. You’d mentioned you probably not likely to go towards the membership pass model and you referenced the fact that your customers are a little bit different than maybe some of your regional part peers. I am just wondering if you can comment a little bit about how those - how your customers maybe a little bit different is because on the face of it we would seen that your customers should be similar to some of your regional peers. Thanks.

Matt Ouimet

President

Yeah, I’ll Josh, but obviously I don’t have - the information I have is specific to us and I know that we have - that the data we have within the case that we have a larger percentage of family attending as family and that is one of the characteristics that differentiate us. We’ve also seen through our research that our customer does not seem to have an appeal for certain devices that are in membership systems more broadly, not just in our industry. So we think we have other levers available to us that will encourage more renewal. The other thing I should say is what, our renewal rate have been growing very well for the last years and I credit that to our CRM system where we are now able to have an active and relevant dialog with each of our season pass holder particularly. In the new hotel platform we are going to put in place will be particularly effective with our season pass holder. So I think we’re just - you can play different play books, ours is just going to be a little different.

Josh Borstein

Analyst

Great, thank you. And then just a follow-up, if you can talk about the advance bookings for the hotel breakers, it sounds like that’s on scheduled, just what that might say about the business prospects for the year. And in the press release you mentioned that catering adjacent to the hotel, could you discuss what it is if it’s included those at the breakers, as it going to an add on option.

Matt Ouimet

President

So the second is the first, which is the catering facility in the hotel which we just walked yesterday are both going to be phenomenal assets. As the catering facility primarily services large ground would catered meal and so those of your trips groups bands, the company picnics and those pavilions are the scale now that will allow us to provide both better service and a better experience. And though that’s my opening comments, I think it’s important for people to get out to our parks and walk these assets to understand perhaps what differentiate us. The hotel is the same thing, this hotel is going to allow us to jump start the multiday positioning towards Cedar Point, it is - it is maybe the most important invest that we’ve made over system I’ve done here. So I am encouraged by that. The early season booking trend is positive but I got you know again it’s so small and the lead time for booking in our business is relatively short. So I don’t want you to read too much into that, but the quality asset is dramatically different from what it was before.

Josh Borstein

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

We’ll take our next question from Tim Conder from Wells Fargo Securities.

Tim Conder

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

Thank you. Just wanted to little bit of clarity on FX plan, just a little more color in the quarter have been more importantly for the year that relates to Canada’s Wonderland?

Brian Witherow

Management

Sure Tim. As it relates to the quarter given Canada’s Wonderland wasn’t in operation. There is really no material or meaningful impact on Q1. As we said in our year-end call, all depending on what’s your outlook is for the Canadian dollar long term. But based on the projection that we’ve seen, we would estimate the potential impact at the EBITDA like could be somewhere between 5 million to 10 million for 2015. So more than it was last year, but still in the grand scheme of things not overly burdensome on the full year EBITDA.

Tim Conder

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

Okay and if I may just circling back, I know again maybe that for slight component and there is variability in the focuses on the long term here. But your bookings that you are going achieve your full 50 goal for ’16 that’s on track, that’s ahead of plan, just any color on that would - the timing of that would that be expected towards that early then, was that material effectively saying by ’15 and then we go on and focus more on ’18, just anything you can offer there?

Matt Ouimet

President

Yeah, all I would say Tim is we feel very confident that we are going to find that milestone relatively shortly and all things considered and that’s why we moved on to the $500 million. But all indication for 2015 are positive, we feel good not only about the program we put in the place but the people we have in place, things like our CRM system, things like the products we’ve introduced, rollercoaster here at Cedar Point, it is an outstanding coaster. So you know Tim we are leaning into ’15 and hopefully we’ll see that.

Tim Conder

Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities

Okay, great and that’s it. Thanks Matt.

Matt Ouimet

President

Okay, thank you, Tim.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We’ll go next to Ray Cheesman from Anfield Capital.

Ray Cheesman

Analyst

Matt, I was wondering if as you start this new season, are you expecting to see any kind of those weather, school, calendar, challenges that some other parks faced last year?

Matt Ouimet

President

We don’t anticipate that right.

Ray Cheesman

Analyst

Terrific. The other thing I wondered was, we again are staring a new season out of substantially lower fuel cost or let’s fuel bleed of the family’s disposable budget, do you think that’s having any impact on you with the renewal rates, growth rates or the addition of people addition on in all season dining pass to what they might have had before?

Matt Ouimet

President

You know what we’ve traditionally said is when gas prices go up, we don’t seem to lose attendance. So I think within electoral integrity, I don’t know that we’re going to see incremental attendance associated with it. Where we do expect to see is some in park spending in last just should gas prices to stay down measurably, that’s normally where we would experience that dynamic.

Ray Cheesman

Analyst

Thanks very much.

Matt Ouimet

President

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And there are no other questions at the queue at this time. I’d like to turn the conference back over to our moderators.

Matt Ouimet

President

Thanks first of all. Thanks everybody for your question and your continued interest and ongoing support for Cedar Fair. As I am sure or hope you can tell from our comments today, we are proud of what we’ve accomplished over the past four years and even more excited about what is in store for us in the next four including 2015, which we certainly expect to be another record year for Cedar Fair. Finally I’ll say I encourage all you again to visit our park this summer and experience firsthand the Cedar Fair difference. Tracy?

Stacy Frole

Management

Thank you everyone for joining us on the call today. Should you have any follow-up questions, please feel free to contact our Investor Relations department at 419 627-2233. We look forward to speaking with you again in about three months to discuss our second quarter results.