Operator
Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Fulton Financial Fourth Quarter Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Jason Weber. Please go ahead, sir.
Fulton Financial Corporation (FULT)
Q4 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, Jan 19, 2017
$21.39
-1.59%
Same-Day
+0.56%
1 Week
+4.17%
1 Month
+6.67%
vs S&P
+1.98%
Operator
Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Fulton Financial Fourth Quarter Results Conference Call. This call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Jason Weber. Please go ahead, sir.
Jason Weber
Management
Thanks, Tracy. Good morning. Thanks for joining us for Fulton Financial’s conference call and webcast to discuss our earnings for 2016. Your host for today’s conference call is Phil Wenger, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer of Fulton Financial Corporation. Joining Phil Wenger is Phil Rohrbaugh, Senior Executive Vice President, Chief Operating Officer, and Interim Chief Financial Officer. Our comments today will refer to the financial information and related slide presentation included with our earnings announcement which we released at 4:30 p.m. yesterday afternoon. These documents can be found on our website at fult.com by clicking on investor relations and then on news. The slides can also be found on the presentations page under investor relations on our website. On this call, representatives of Fulton may make forward-looking statements with respect to Fulton Financial’s condition, results of operation, and business. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other factors, and actual results could differ materially. Please refer to the Safe Harbor statement on forward-looking statements in our earnings release and on slide 2 of today’s presentation for additional information regarding these risks, uncertainties, and other factors. Fulton undertakes no obligation, other than as required by law, to update or revise any forward looking statements. In discussing Fulton’s performance, representatives of Fulton may refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to the supplemental financial information included with Fulton’s earnings announcement released yesterday on slides 13 and 14 in today’s presentation for a reconciliation of those non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP measures. Now I would like to turn the call over to your host, Phil Wenger.
Phil Wenger
Chairman
Well thanks, Jason, good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I have a few prepared remarks before our Interim CFO, Phil Rohrbaugh, shares the details of our 2016 and fourth quarter performance. When he concludes, I will review our 2017 outlook and then we will open up the phone line for questions. We reported diluted per share earnings of $0.93 for 2016, an increase of 9.4% year-over-year. Pre-provision net revenue increased approximately $20.7 million or 10.4% year-over-year, and our return on assets was 0.88% and our return on tangible equity was 10.3% for the year. Our financial results in 2016 reflected the continued progress in executing our growth strategies. And despite a challenging interest rate and operating environment, we were able to grow revenues at greater pace than our expenses. As a result, we generated meaningful positive operating leverage, a goal that we set out at the beginning of 2016. Our average loan portfolio increased 6% year-over-year which was in line with our 2016 outlook and was driven by growth in most of our loan portfolios. Our average residential mortgage portfolio increased 6.8% year-over-year. In 2016, we made a strategic decision to originate and retain certain purchase-only jumbo and CRA mortgages. Going forward, growth in the mortgage loan portfolio will be a function of our strategic priorities and market pricing in the secondary market. Our average commercial mortgage portfolio increased 7.4% year-over-year. That growth was spread throughout our footprint, but primarily in our Pennsylvania market. We were able to take advantage of the market opportunity to grow our commercial mortgage portfolio while maintaining Fulton’s consistent underwriting standards. Our average C&I loan portfolio increased 5.1% year-over-year, even though our line borrowings at December 31, 2016, were $56 million or 4% less than the same time last year. Our commercial leasing…
Phil Rohrbaugh
CFO
Thank you, Phil, and good morning to everyone on the call. Unless I note otherwise, quarterly comparisons are with the third quarter of 2016 and annual comparisons are with 2015. Turning to fourth quarter results on slide 5, earnings per diluted share this quarter were $0.24 on net income of $42 million. While net income increased 2% from the third quarter, earnings per diluted share were unchanged linked quarter and were $0.02 higher than the fourth quarter of 2015. Fourth quarter earnings reflected an increase in net interest income, an increase in the provisions for credit losses, an increase in noninterest income, and an increase in noninterest expenses. Pre-provision net revenue decreased 5.1% in the fourth quarter, largely due to certain expenses that I will highlight later. For the fourth quarter, returns on average assets and tangible equity were 89 basis points and 10.47%, respectively. Moving to slide 6, our net interest income for the fourth quarter increased $1.7 million or 1.3% driven by growth in earning assets and a one basis point increase in the net interest margin. Average earning assets were up 1.2% due mainly to a $260 million increase in average loans. Average interest bearing liabilities were up only 6% as a $220 million increase in interest bearing deposits was partially offset by a decrease in short and long term borrowing levels. Both the yield on average earning assets and the cost of average earning interest bearing liabilities declined by one basis point, but the net interest margin improved due to the growth in average balances of our non-interest bearing deposits funding linked quarter. The one basis point [decrease] in earning assets yields resulted from a three basis point decrease in loan yields partially offset by the impact of a decrease in the average balance of lower…
Phil Wenger
Chairman
Thank you, Phil. We expect the annual average growth rate for loans and deposits to be in the mid to high single digits. We expect modest improvement in the net interest margin. We expect the net interest margin to be flat to up five basis points in the first and second quarters. The margin trends in the third and fourth quarters will be largely dependent upon changes in the Fed funds rate and competitor actions. With respect to asset quality, we expect the provision to increase, driven primarily by loan growth. We expect the growth rate for noninterest income excluding security gains to be in the mid to high single digits. We expect the growth rate for noninterest expenses to be in the low to mid single digits. And finally, we will manage our capital to support growth and provide appropriate returns to our shareholders. Thank you for your attention, for your continued interest in Fulton Financial Corporation, and now we will be glad to answer your questions.
Operator
Operator
[Operator Instructions] We will go first to Bob Ramsey with FBR.
Bob Ramsey
Analyst
Good morning guys. How are you?
Phil Wenger
Chairman
Hey Bob, morning.
Bob Ramsey
Analyst
So, quick question for clarification on the guidance. Is it flat to 5 bps in each of the first and second quarters or cumulatively over the two?
Phil Wenger
Chairman
That is a quarterly number. And we got the increase in December so you can probably, in the first quarter, go more to the higher end of that range. And then maybe in the second quarter more to the lower end of the range without any additional rate increases.
Bob Ramsey
Analyst
Okay, perfect. And is that a fair way to think about if we already get another rate increase sometime later this year, that you would get another maybe 5 to 10 or something benefit that would follow from that?
Phil Wenger
Chairman
Yes, the only difference is we will have -- we still have in the first quarter -- actually there’s a couple things I would note. In the first quarter we get the additional benefit of the FHLB refinancing that happened in December, so that’s a little additional benefit. Now, there is also we have $100 million of senior debt that matures in May. A $100 million. Actually, it’s subordinated debt. It matures in May. I paid a coupon of 5.9.
Phil Rohrbaugh
CFO
6.
Phil Wenger
Chairman
Or 6.
Phil Rohrbaugh
CFO
5.96%.
Phil Wenger
Chairman
5.96%. So, we are still analyzing the best route to take there, but there is a possibility we could pick up some margin from that as we move forward or so.
Bob Ramsey
Analyst
Got it, great. And if you sort of put the sub-debt on the side and if there are no more increases then in the back half of this year, are we flat? Are we back to modest compression? Just how should we think about no change from where we sit today kind of outlook?
Phil Wenger
Chairman
No. I think flat it is a way to look at it right now. Given where rates are right now, we believe that towards the end of the sometime late third quarter, early fourth quarter, our new loan production will be at a higher yield than the loans that are running off. And it’s going to be very close, but -- so that should lead more to, without rate increases, flat margins going forward without any additional rate increases and then the other factor is we’re still not seeing pressure on the deposit side, so that kind of will play into margin with or without rate increases in the second half. We’ll have to wait and see how that plays out.
Bob Ramsey
Analyst
Okay. And then what deposit beta are you guys using in terms of how you’re thinking about the December increase that just happened?
Phil Wenger
Chairman
We have at this point not changed any deposit rates. We have some public funds that are on index rates, but it’s not a big, a large amount doesn’t have a big impact. So we expect, or right now we see deposit rates from this increase functioning similarly to the last increase.
Bob Ramsey
Analyst
Got it. And then shifting gears, I know you highlighted why the tax rate was favorable this quarter. Just curious -- and it will be volatile, but is 25 still a good rate to use on full-year 2017 expectation outlook? Or is there anything that has maybe shifted that?
Phil Rohrbaugh
CFO
This is Phil Rohrbaugh. I think the best way to think about the effective tax rate is somewhere between 22% and 25%. Because the pacing of that is impacted by the investments we make in low income housing and when that tax credit may be attributed to us. And when we try to time that there can be some fluctuations in that in terms of the credit that arises, but it should fall somewhere in that range next year.
Bob Ramsey
Analyst
Okay. Great. Thank you for taking my questions.
Phil Wenger
Chairman
Thank you.
Operator
Operator
We will go next to Casey Haire with Jefferies.
Casey Haire
Analyst
Thanks, good morning guys. Wanted to dig in a little deeper on the outlook for ‘17. Specifically loans and deposits as well as fees. If I’m understanding you correctly, in the mid to high single digit growth on fees, I think you guys are indicating that mortgage banking can drive that. Is that true? And what is the main driver of the fee growth, which seems a little aggressive versus my model and consensus? And then on the loans and deposits, Phil, I see your point that you guys can sell more of your mortgage production, but that was also a decent driver of the loan growth this quarter -- sorry, the loan growth in 2016. And if you do decide to sell that, that will hurt your loan growth and yet you have a loan growth steady state at a mid single digit pace. So I’m just wondering what category, other than mortgage would pick up the slack if you decide to sell more mortgage.
Phil Wenger
Chairman
So, just let me talk briefly about mortgage. So we have been hiring additional mortgage originators, and we have been successful I think in picking up market share. In fact, our percentage of production, purchase versus refinance, was higher than I think the industry average. So we don’t see if the refinance goes away, I don’t think it will hurt us as much as it is to some of the other folks. We think we can continue to pick up market share and grow that revenue. We believe investment management and trust will have a better growth year for us. It was pretty flat this past year, so we see some there. Our treasury services on the corporate side, we continue to pick up market share there. We believe that we will continue. SBA fees, we expect most of that growth really came in the late third and fourth quarters, so we see additional growth on the SBA side.
Casey Haire
Analyst
Okay. So you are expecting a similar mix of loan growth in ‘17 and then mortgage banking will benefit from increased hires and then the fee growth will benefit from strength across other line items as well?
Phil Wenger
Chairman
Yes.
Casey Haire
Analyst
Okay, understood. And then the expense guide, low to mid single digits, what is the base in 2016 on which that grows?
Phil Rohrbaugh
CFO
Well, we tried to highlight for you the fact that there were a number of discrete items in the fourth quarter. But if you adjust and we only highlighted the most significant, but if you adjust for those you end up with more a core run rate somewhere in the $121 million to $123 million range coming into the first quarter. You have to remember in the first quarter you have slightly lower day count, you have some seasonality in payroll taxes, but that is a way to think about it. With then components of noninterest expense increasing at different rates, but in the aggregate, certainly low to mid single digit growth rate.
Casey Haire
Analyst
Okay. So $121 million, $123 million is the expectation on a quarterly basis for ‘17?
Phil Rohrbaugh
CFO
Starting out there and then increasing throughout the year in terms of various components increasing at higher rates than others.
Casey Haire
Analyst
Okay, understood. And just lastly, so I understand the enforcement orders are out of your hands, but is there any -- is there another -- when is the next key date in terms of we get -- and when you hear more from the regulators in terms of making progress in getting these lifted?
Phil Wenger
Chairman
So, there are five different regulators involved in this. We have a number of dates really that span across right now the first six months of the year. And they are staged throughout the first six months.
Casey Haire
Analyst
Okay, thank you.
Operator
Operator
And we will go next to Frank Schiraldi with Sandler O’Neil.
Frank Schiraldi
Analyst
Good morning.
Phil Wenger
Chairman
Frank.
Phil Rohrbaugh
CFO
Good morning Frank.
Frank Schiraldi
Analyst
Just a couple of follow-ups, I guess. On the mortgage banking front, Phil, I think you mentioned the better mix between purchase and [indiscernible]. What is the breakout there in terms of the business?
Phil Wenger
Chairman
So, overall, 63% purchase in 2016. In 2015 we were 52% purchase. And I think the refinance market was probably better in ‘16. So, we were able to bring on originators that picked up market share specifically on the purchase side.
Frank Schiraldi
Analyst
Okay. And is it fair to say given I mean you highlighted some other drivers of fee income growth in 2017. Is it fair to say mortgage banking business you expect to grow, but maybe could grow somewhere below that mid to high single digit rate that you expect fee income to grow in total, given some of the other drivers?
Phil Wenger
Chairman
I do think that would be a fair statement, yes.
Frank Schiraldi
Analyst
Okay. And just on the expense front, just want to make sure in terms of guidance I’m thinking about it correctly. So your guidance, what is it? Low to mid-single-digit growth year-over-year. That is off of a reported 2016, including some of the discrete items you talked about in this quarter and maybe past quarters?
Phil Rohrbaugh
CFO
Yes, we’re talking off a base, as I indicated, coming into the first quarter of 121 to 123. And various components of noninterest expense increasing at various rates from certainly low to mid single digits over the course of the year. So that will run up over the course of the year from that starting point, Frank. And hopefully I answer your question here.
Frank Schiraldi
Analyst
Sure, yes. So Phil, so then low to mid, you start at that 121 to 123, and then you will see low to mid single digit growth from there through the year?
Phil Rohrbaugh
CFO
Right, that’s correct.
Frank Schiraldi
Analyst
Okay. And then just finally a follow-up on the tax rate. As we think about the lower tax rate in the quarter, is there an offsetting higher expense in the quarter? Because you had higher benefit from these tax credits in the quarter? Or is that not the case?
Phil Rohrbaugh
CFO
I think all the expenses are reflected within that line item, so you have no geography here relative to understanding the impact. So it is in your effective tax rate.
Frank Schiraldi
Analyst
Okay. It’s all in the effective tax rate. And if the tax rate goes from 19.5 to 22 to 25, that there is no offset anywhere else?
Phil Rohrbaugh
CFO
That’s correct. That’s correct.
Frank Schiraldi
Analyst
All right, thank you.
Operator
Operator
We will go next to Joe Gladue with Merion Capital Group.
Joe Gladue
Analyst
Morning.
Phil Wenger
Chairman
Good morning Joe.
Joe Gladue
Analyst
I guess most of my questions have been asked, but was wondering if you could give us a little more I guess color on the Philadelphia area. You’ve said you have hired some more lenders there, just how quickly do you expect those -- that area to ramp up?
Phil Wenger
Chairman
Well, we continue to look for a couple of additional lenders and I think by late second quarter we should be full steam ahead.
Joe Gladue
Analyst
All right. I guess that’s it from me.
Operator
Operator
And we will take next question from Chris McGratty with KBW.
Chris McGratty
Analyst · KBW
Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Phil, the premium amortization, I was wondering if you could disclose what it was not only this quarter but maybe last quarter in the bond portfolio?
Phil Rohrbaugh
CFO
Sure. Just give me a minute here to grab some information on that question. The premium amortization was about $2.7 million in the quarter, and that compares to $2.7 million.
Chris McGratty
Analyst · KBW
Last quarter, okay. Now, everyone recognizes that a little bit different based on their assumptions. Is the expectation given what has happened to rates since the election, could that number is -- I guess is there any reduction of that number factored into the guide for the first quarter margin support?
Phil Rohrbaugh
CFO
Yes, slightly, but obviously with the rising rates you would expect that to be reduced and actually you’ll see improve slightly. So that is being considered in the guidance we’re providing.
Chris McGratty
Analyst · KBW
Okay, great. And on the investment portfolio, you guys have kept it relatively flat over the past couple quarters. Is that the expectation for the next few quarters that the 2.5 or so bond size is about, right? Or is -- do you have expectations to either reduce it or grow it?
Phil Wenger
Chairman
Well, I think that is a good number assuming our loans continue to grow at the rate that they’ve been growing. So if loan growth would slow down, that would probably pick up a little.
Chris McGratty
Analyst · KBW
Okay, that’s great. Maybe the last one and if I may have missed it so I apologize. Given the disruption that you have seen in your market from BB&T, I’m a little bit surprised to see the flat year-over-year C&I balances. And again, you may have explain this, so maybe you can just repeat it. But were there any losses of lenders or key teams during the year that may have explained the kind of stagnation in the C&I book?
Phil Wenger
Chairman
I think ending year number was driven mostly by line of credit borrowings, which were down year-over-year close to $50 million.
Chris McGratty
Analyst · KBW
Okay. And the expectation for this year is that, to get to the loan growth guidance, that this would have to be a positive contributor? Is that a fair assessment?
Phil Wenger
Chairman
I think it is. Yes, Chris.
Chris McGratty
Analyst · KBW
Okay, all right, great. Thanks for taking my questions.
Operator
Operator
And we will go next to Matt Schultheis with Boenning.
Matt Schultheis
Analyst
Good morning.
Phil Wenger
Chairman
Hi Matt.
Matt Schultheis
Analyst
A quick question on your mortgage servicing rights. You booked a $1.7 million again this quarter and was trying to figure out how much of that is from new rights being created through the sales loans and the retention of the mortgage servicing rights and how much of that is a mark on the existing book.
Phil Wenger
Chairman
Yes, that would all be a mark. And if you recall in the second and third quarter, those rights were marked down $3 million. Then with the increase in rates, we have essentially [indiscernible] 1.7 of that.
Matt Schultheis
Analyst
Okay. And then --
Phil Wenger
Chairman
So the net impact for the year of those adjustments was negative.
Matt Schultheis
Analyst
And so then related question. For the fourth quarter, what was the change in the expectation for the weighted average life of the underlying portfolio to drive the increase in valuation?
Phil Wenger
Chairman
I don’t think the person they can answer that question is in this room, I’m sorry. But we can get back to you on that.
Matt Schultheis
Analyst
Thank you.
Operator
Operator
[Operator Instructions] And we will go next to the Matthew Breese with Piper Jaffray.
Matthew Breese
Analyst
Good morning everybody.
Phil Wenger
Chairman
Hi Matt.
Matthew Breese
Analyst
I just wanted to touch on the C&I business again and line utilization, especially in light of your commentary that we might see some better expansion there. And I wanted to know if since the election, you have felt that in terms of optimism from your borrower base.
Phil Wenger
Chairman
I think there is a sentiment of optimism. But I wouldn’t classify it as crazy and everyone’s -- but people are starting to talk much more positively.
Matthew Breese
Analyst
Maybe in that guidance, what are your expectations for change in line utilization?
Phil Wenger
Chairman
I don’t know that we’ve got or getting that granular on our guidance. I think our guidance is more about market opportunities, about picking up market share, moving into some new markets like Philadelphia.
Matthew Breese
Analyst
Okay. And then switching gears maybe to the commercial real estate portfolio, obviously the yield curve has picked up a little bit. Has that translated into higher commercial real estate loan yields? And could you give us some examples of how things are changed from 3Q to year-end when the yield curve ran up?
Phil Wenger
Chairman
So, I would just first say that in general we see a little less competition on the commercial real estate side. There are some folks that are pulling back for whatever reason, but our pricing is beginning to improve slightly. But again, it’s not something that is dramatically improving.
Matthew Breese
Analyst
Okay. And would you characterize that as less than one-for-one in terms of the 50 basis point move we’ve seen in the five-year C&T?
Phil Wenger
Chairman
I would say yes, less than that.
Matthew Breese
Analyst
Okay. Any color on as to why you haven’t been able to more dramatically increase pricing?
Phil Wenger
Chairman
I think it would be one word, and it’s competition.
Matthew Breese
Analyst
Okay. That’s all I had, thank you.
Operator
Operator
And we will go next to Matthew Keating with Barclays.
Matthew Keating
Analyst
Thank you, good morning.
Phil Wenger
Chairman
Good morning.
Matthew Keating
Analyst
My question would be on I guess the geography of some of the fee income performance. So obviously in 2016, other service charges and fees increased pretty materially, so is that the area where you see some of the treasury services and interest rate swaps flow through into your performance? Thanks.
Phil Wenger
Chairman
I look at different reports than you do, so --
Phil Rohrbaugh
CFO
It’s Phil Rohrbaugh. See, in other service charges and fees you would find commercial swap fees in that category and which year-over-year we indicated were up.
Matthew Keating
Analyst
Okay. That’s helpful. And then on the small SBA loan sales, is that in there as well or is that within other? As we think about --
Phil Rohrbaugh
CFO
That’s in the other category.
Matthew Keating
Analyst
Okay. No, that is helpful to clarify that. And then, Phil also if you could quantify the typical seasonal impact. You mentioned higher FICA and payroll taxes in the first quarter usually; what’s the dollar level of that increase traditionally?
Phil Rohrbaugh
CFO
It has an impact historically of around $2 million.
Matthew Keating
Analyst
About $2 million? Okay. But then as you mentioned, the day count is a bit less, so that -- does that mean that you can have a flattish performance? I guess you mentioned you think quarterly expenses stay around Q4’s core adjusted run rate, and then grow from there, is the right way to think about it.
Phil Wenger
Chairman
That’s right.
Matthew Keating
Analyst
Okay. And then finally we have heard a lot from some bank executives about the impact of potential tax reform and whether or not, in a competitive industry that will be sort of competed away as banks I guess re-price products, loan products, etc. What is your perspective as an almost $20 billion asset bank that operates in a pretty competitive market, about whether potential tax reform will fall to the bottom line? Thanks.
Phil Wenger
Chairman
Well, that is a really tough question to answer at this point for a couple of reasons. Number one, it is really just talk right now and nobody has any idea if it will happen or what the timing will be. But I do think if it happens some, I would say at least half of it, in my personal opinion will end up dropping to the bottom line, but probably not all of it.
Matthew Keating
Analyst
Got you. Well, thanks that’s helpful. That’s all I had.
Operator
Operator
It appears there are no further questions at this time. Mr. Wenger, I would like to turn the conference back to you for any additional or closing remarks.
A - Phil Wenger
Analyst
Well, thank you all for joining us today. We hope you will be able to be with us when we discuss first quarter results in April.
Operator
Operator
This does conclude today’s conference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.