Jocelyn Perry
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open
Thank you, Barry and good morning everyone. As Barry mentioned, third quarter results were in line with our expectation. Reported earnings for the quarter of $278 million or $0.64 per common share were comparable to earnings of $276 million or $0.65 per common share last year. On a year-to-date basis, reported earnings of approximately $1.3 billion or $3.02 per share were significantly higher than last year. You will recall that our second quarter 2019 earnings included a $484 million net gain on the sale of our 51% interest in the Waneta Expansion. Adjusted EPS of $0.66 for the quarter was $0.01 higher compared to the previous year. This increase reflects rate base growth in our regulated businesses, partially offset by decreased production at the Belize hydro generating facilities due to lower rainfall, and a higher weighted average number of common shares outstanding. On a year-to-date basis, adjusted EPS was $0.02 lower than the first nine months of 2018. Rate-base growth, again, driven by our regulated businesses was offset by unfavorable weather impacts in Arizona and Belize as well as reduced earnings at Aitken Creek. Turning to Slide 13, I’ll walk through the EPS drivers for the quarter. Growth at our regulated utility businesses was led by ITC, which contributed $0.02 increase in EPS during the quarter and largely reflect weight-based growth. Next, UNS Energy increased EPS by $0.01 in the quarter, which reflects higher revenues due to operational regulatory recoveries offset by higher costs associated with rate base growth that are not yet included in rate, due to the historical test year. Weather was not a significant driver of results for the third quarter. At our non-regulated energy infrastructure businesses, EPS decreased by $0.01 for the quarter. This was mainly driven by lower production in Belize as the country continues to experience drought conditions. With the lower rainfall, production in the third quarter was 11 gigawatt hours compared to 59 gigawatt hours in the previous year. Lastly, the $0.01 EPS decrease in the Corporate and Other segment was driven by a higher number of weighted average common shares, partially offset by lower corporate costs. Higher average common shares reflect the shares issued under the Company’s dividend reinvestment plan and our at-the-market equity program or ATM. The sale of the Waneta Expansion did not have an impact – net impact on earnings during the quarter, as the earnings loss from no longer having the Waneta Expansion was offset by reduced corporate finance charges. Results of our other regulated utilities were comparable to last year rate-based growth that those utilities was offset by timing differences in the quarter, including a $5 million favorable capital tracker true-up recognize that FortisAlberta in the third quarter of last year. Moving to Slide 14, adjusted year-to-date earnings per share for the first nine months of 2019 decreased $0.02 compared to the same period in 2018. The key driver of this decrease was weather in Belize and Arizona, which I’ll discuss shortly. ITC, our largest utility improved EPS by $0.05 compared to last year, again, driven by strong rate-based growth, partially offset by the reduced independence incentive adder. A higher U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar foreign exchange rate for the first nine months of 2019 resulted in the $0.04 EPS increase. The year-to-date average rate was $1.33 compared to a $1.29 last year. At Central Hudson, EPS increased $0.01 driven by higher delivery rates and lower storm restoration costs. Our Western Canadian utilities improved EPS by $0.01, largely reflecting rate based growth at our gas business in BC. The non-regulated energy infrastructure businesses reduced EPS by $0.06 year-to-date, again, lower rainfall in Belize resulting in lower production, reduced EPS by $0.04 for the first nine months of the year. As I noted earlier, Belize has been experiencing drought conditions, production for the first nine months of 2019 was 50 gigawatt hours compared to 179 gigawatt hours in 2018. Lower realized margins at Aitken Creek in 2019 also negatively impacted EPS for this segment. EPS contribution from UNS was $0.05 lower for the first nine months of 2019 compared to last year compared to last year. This was largely driven by cooler temperatures in Arizona during the second quarter as well as higher costs associated with rate base growth, not yet in rates again due to the historical test year. And lastly, EPS was lowered by $0.02, reflecting a higher number of weighted average common shares, partially offset by lower corporate costs. And the decrease in corporate costs was mainly driven by lower financing costs and timing of tax expense. Turning now to our regulatory outlook. At ITC, we await a final decision from FERC on the MISO based ROE and next steps on two notice of inquiry issued in March. The first NOI saw comment on FERC’s policies for determining the ROE used in setting rate and the second on how to improve its transmission incentive policy to ensure it appropriately encourages the development of needed infrastructure to the benefit of our customers. You will also recall FERC issued an order in 2018, which determine ITC was no longer fully independent and subsequently reduced the incentive adder included in rates of ITC’s utilities operating in the MISO region to 25 basis points, down from the approximate 50 basis points that ITC was earning in rates. ITC has appealed this decision to the U.S. Court of Appeals and there is no designated time for the court to decide on this matter. Tucson Electric Power filed its rate case on April 1 using 2018 as a test year. TEP’s current rates are based on a mid-2015 test year, and therefore requested rates include approximately US$700 million of additional rate base investments that have been made since then. Additional requests in the rate filing include our ROE increase of 60 basis points to 10.35% and increased equity thickness to 53%. Intervenor testimony, including the ACC staff testimony was filed in October, next steps in the rate case include TEP filing rebuttal testimony later this month with hearings expected to commence in early 2020 and we anticipate a decision in the second quarter of next year. As discussed during the last quarter, FortisBC filed its multi-year rate plan earlier this year as the current term expires at the end of 2019. The proposed plan seeks approval for rate-setting framework for 2020 through 2024. As we do not anticipate a decision until next year, the utility has filed for interim rates to be effective January 1, 2020 and to remain in place until the rate plan is approved. In September, the Alberta Utilities Commission issued an order proposing to change how the Alberta Electric System Operator’s customer contribution policy is accounted for between distribution owners including Fortis Alberta and transmission owners. The decision prevents these transmission related investments by the utility in the future and directs that unamortized balance, which forms part of Fortis Alberta’s rate base be transferred to the transmission facility owners. Currently, Fortis Alberta has approximately $400 million of rate base associated with these investments. We were surprised and disappointed with the decision and immediately filed for a review and variance. The filing is currently being reviewed by the AUC and we will continue to contest both the AUC’s unprecedented treatment of the unamortized balance, as well as future ongoing customer contributions. Before concluding, I wanted to review the funding plan associated with the five-year capital plan that Barry just discussed. Most of the required funding is coming from cash from operations and regulated debt of the subsidiaries, a small portion of the funding or 3% will come from our ATM program. As you’ll recall, we currently have a $500 million ATM program and commence using the program in the second quarter to fund the increase in the 2019 capital. Through the end of September, we have issued 3.5 million shares under the ATM program equating to gross proceeds of approximately $181 million. Fortis is well-positioned to execute on the new five-year capital plan and improve the credit profile of the company. Specifically, we expect to improve CFO to debt to an average of 12% over the next five years and decrease the ratio of wholesale debt to total debt to low-30s by 2024. We remain committed to our investment grade credit rating and our focus on improving our credit profile. This concludes my remarks. I’ll now turn the call back to Barry.