Drew Del Matto
Analyst · Gabriela Borges, Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open
Thank you, Ken. Let me share our financial results for the third quarter, which can be seen on slide 3. As Ken mentioned, Fortinet's billings increased 16% year over year to $347 million. Total revenue of $317 million was up 22% year over year. Our deferred revenue balance increased to $935 million up 32% year over year. This is a trend that has become more pronounced as our mix of business shifts to enterprise and we have more margin-rich recurring subscription and service revenue. We continued to deliver a strong non-GAAP gross margin of 75% which exceeded our guidance range of 73% to 74%. This reflects our focus on driving sales of higher value, higher price and higher-margin recurring revenue streams such as services and virtualized product offerings. From a profitability perspective, non-GAAP operating margin and non-GAAP earnings per share were 15% and $0.18 respectively both at the high end of our original guidance ranges. We remain focused on driving profitability and are on course towards our previously stated longer-term goal of 20% non-GAAP operating margins exiting 2020. We managed expenses well, and if not for the billings shortfall would've delivered substantial progress toward that goal this quarter. Finally, we generated $70 million of free cash flow during the quarter despite our billings and revenue shortfall. With respect to our third quarter topline performance, as Ken discussed, both market and execution issues were at work. We believe we are well positioned competitively in the market and our laser focused on improving the things we believe we can control such as our own execution and ramping the productivity of our sales and marketing investments. We have an aggressive plan in place to address the execution issues in North America which includes -- enhanced and increased enterprise-specific marketing in areas such as digital marketing and lead generation to drive quality leads and better sales productivity. We plan to reallocate marketing budgets, not meaningfully increase them. We're also working to improve sales onboarding, training and enablement. We're focused on ramping salespeople more quickly and training them to sell them broader Fortinet security fabric and enterprise bundles. That should help drive larger deals and improve sales productivity. We're also implementing a more frequent and disciplined review of sales force productivity and pipeline conversion, with a drive toward more balanced linearity to reduce the amount of business that needs to be closed in the final weeks of the quarter. And finally, our plan also includes forging and deepening partnerships with key systems integrators and enterprise solution providers to sell our end to end fabric in large enterprises. Fortinet has the best technology in the market and technology that the market wants. We've made the investment and have the salespeople in place. We are laser focused on making them more productive. Increasing sales productivity should benefit both top line and serve as a key contributor to long-term operating margin expansion. Let me provide some context on how we plan to drive sales force productivity and non-GAAP operating margin expansion to our target of 20% exiting 2020. First, we believe revenue and margin improvement will be driven by improved productivity of our North American sales team. With more than 40% of these people, these sales reps with less than one year, we have yet to realize their full potential. As mentioned on previous calls, we have been realigning our sales teams to be more strategically focused on the enterprise space which we believe has a longer sales cycle. However, our pipeline is growing, which provides us with optimism going forward. We believe we will have a more efficient and effective model in place for future growth as we focus our sales teams more directly on defined enterprise customers. Also, we are in the process of bringing best practices to North America around focus, marketing, lead generation, and training I mentioned earlier. These are currently effective in our higher-achieving international regions. In addition to these improvements, we believe the continued shift to higher margin services bundles such as our newly released FortiGuard enterprise bundle and FortiCare 360 support services, will provide a beneficial tailwind to margins over time. The shift in our customer base to larger enterprise can also provide a tailwind to margins. These customers often purchase more over time and have higher lifetime values. It costs less to maintain and up sell an existing customer than it does to acquire one. Finally we continue to sell more virtual products, which have higher margins than physical projects. As Ken mentioned, Fortinet's strong technology advantage enables us to benefit from key secular trends such as security vendor consolidation and the move to the cloud. These are powerful tailwinds for Fortinet for many years to come and also substantially expand our market opportunity. Fortinet security fabric weaves together our market leading products, advanced services and partnerships to provide seamless protection in all points in the network. From end point to data center to cloud in virtual, physical and hybrid environments. This is a strategic and important consideration for our customers as they move from the limited capabilities of point products and away from incumbents lacking the necessary innovation or integration capabilities that are Fortinet's hallmark. We expect this consolidation trend to continue as a business driver for Fortinet and to drive multiproduct deals in the future. As evidenced in Q3 2016, sales of non-FortiGate product lines grew significantly higher year over year than our overall growth rate, with the highest growth coming from FortiSandbox ADP products. We also saw more deals that included multiple Fortinet products in both physical and virtual or cloud environments. Reflective wins in the quarter included landing a large healthcare provider with expansive operations in both North and South America. This organization wished to replace model aging security solutions with an advanced end to end security platform. In a competitive bake-off, Fortinet was chosen for our ability to provide an expansive tightly integrated fabric. This deal included numerous FortiGate, FortiMail, FortiATP and FortiAnalyzer products along with our FortiGuard enterprise security subscription bundle. We're having early success with our cloud solutions which represent a significant expansion opportunity and long-term driver of our growth. Fortinet delivers security to the cloud and for the cloud. We support all major cloud deployment scenarios whether public or private. This provides customers the ability to choose and migrate where and when they need. We partner with AWS, Azure, Google and others who offer a variety of deployment choices, a common operating system and a management platform across IOT to cloud. We have a strong competitive position in the early days with cloud adoption and are winning deals and partnering with customers as they architect their next generation infrastructures. For example, during the third quarter we won a global AWS cloud migration deal with the Fortune 500 travel company. This hybrid cloud deal included the combination of our virtual FortiGate and FortiManager solutions along with numerous FortiGate hardware appliances. We were chosen for our ability to offer single pane of glass management and increased control capabilities with a unified operating system. This is a global project with first deployments commencing in the United States. Our base of customers continues to grow and in Q3 we added 9,000 new customers, bringing our total to approximately 290,000 customers worldwide. We also continued to see growth in the number of large deals across deal size categories. Deals over $100,000 grew 27%, deals over $250,000 grew 12% and deals over $500,000 grew 16%. Growth in large deals during the quarter primarily reflected a tough comparison versus Q3 of 2015 and the impact of the macro and execution issues we discussed. Our breakdown of billings across our top site verticals with service provider at 21%, government at 14%, financial services at 12%, education at 11% and retail at 8%. Now let me turn to the geographic breakdown of billings for Q3. Americas billings grew 16%, EMEA billings grew 16% APAC billings also grew 16%. In addition to the macro issues we discussed all three regions faced tough comparisons of a record 41% billings growth in Q3 of 2015. We saw the same market trends of longer sales cycles and more strategic buying behavior across all regions. The Americas growth rate of 16% also reflects the aforementioned sales execution issues and softness in Brazil as well as a tough year-over-year comparison of 36% Q3 2015. EMEA grew 16% year over year although we anticipated a tough year-over-year comparison of 50% growth in Q3 2015 and the potential impacts of Brexit and macro uncertainty in our plan, these factors recently proved more challenging. Finally, APAC grew 16% against a tougher 36% year over year comparison in Q3 of 2015. Now turning to billings by product segment on Slide 4, we continued to see diversity of FortiGate product billings across all segments with the high end accounting for 37% of total product billings, our mid-range enterprise products accounting for 29% and our entry-level products, for 34%. Total revenue was $317 million in the quarter, up 22% year over year. Revenue performance was driven by the combination of 7% year over year product revenue growth and 34% year over year services revenue growth. We saw a continuation of the revenue mix shift trend we and others have seen this year, in which services are outpacing product growth. Aside from tough year-over-year comparisons, this reflects our success in selling higher-priced subscription bundles and virtual products. On a geographic basis, you can see on slides 5 and 6 that revenue continues to be diversified globally, which remains a key strength of our business. In the Americas revenue grew 18% to $134 million. EMEA revenue grew 27% to $117 million and APAC revenue grew 19% to $66 million. Moving to non-GAAP expenses and profitability. During the quarter our non-GAAP gross profit margin was 75%, above our original guidance of 73% to 74%, primarily due to more higher-margin services revenue. Non-GAAP services gross margin was 83%, in line with last year. Non-GAAP product gross margin was 62%, down 180 basis points from the third quarter of last year, partially due to higher inventory reserves. Non-GAAP gross margin was again positively impacted by higher sales of software products such as our VM line of virtualized security solutions for cloud and virtual deployments and the impact of our price increases on our subscription bundles. Non-GAAP operating expenses were $190 million during the third quarter, resulting in non-GAAP operating income of $46 million or 15% of total revenue. This was above a revised guidance range at the low end of our original guidance. Non-GAAP net income for the third quarter was $32 million or EPS of $0.18 per share which was at the high-end of our original guidance range based on approximately 178 million diluted shares outstanding. The annualized non-GAAP tax rate for 2016 decreased to 33% as we become relatively more profitable abroad. As seen on slide 8, we ended Q3 with a strong balance sheet including $1.271 billion in cash and investments. Our $70 million of free cash flow included $6 million in capital expenditures. Similar to Q2, our free cash flow was impacted by a shift in linearity where more of our business occurred in the third month of the quarter versus Q3 2015 resulting in a higher ending accounts receivable balance. Annualized inventory turns for Q3 were 1.7, below our annualized goal of 2 or a better, as a result of billings falling short of expectations. Deferred revenue increased to $935 million, up $228 million or 32% year over year and $31 million sequentially. Finally, during the third quarter, Fortinet repurchased $25 million of our common stock in the third quarter at an average price of $36.04. That's noted in our press release on October 11. Fortinet's board approved an additional $100 million of authorization for share repurchases, increasing our current authorization to $300 million for repurchases through December of 2017. As of September 30th, we have purchased a total of $75 million of our common stock under our authorized $300 million share repurchase program, leaving $225 million available. Now let me finish with our guidance for the fourth quarter 2016. As a reminder, all forward-looking statements including all of the guidance statements provided are subject to Michelle's cautions at the start of this call. Fortinet's market opportunity and competitive advantage is significant. Our investments have helped lay the foundation for our future growth and share gains, increasing profitability and cash flow as we execute on our plan to increase productivity and improve sales execution in the coming quarters. We're well positioned to benefit from secular tailwinds such as security product consolidation and the move to the cloud with our end to end security fabric. However, our third quarter performance and what we're seeing and the market has given us some pause. We expect North American sales execution issues to take a few quarters to fully resolve and sales productivity to ramp over time as the sales force matures and we execute on our improvement plan. In addition, the markets moved toward vendor consolidation and next-generation cloud architectures could continue to elongate sales cycles. Although these trends ultimately benefit Fortinet as one of the few vendors with the technology, products and performance to capture those opportunities, they could continue to impact growth for the near term. In addition, we see political and economic uncertainty around the globe and continue to face comparisons, tough comparisons versus our outperformance last year. It is prudent for us to carefully factor all of this into our forward outlook. During Q4 we expect billings to be in the range of $424 million to $432 million, up approximately 12% year over year at the midpoint. Total revenue is expected to be in the range of $341 million to $347 million up 16% year over year at the midpoint. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be approximately 74%, non-GAAP operating margins expected to be in the range of 15% to 16%. And finally, we expect non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of $0.20 to $0.21 based on an expected diluted share count in the range of 178 million to 180 million fully diluted shares. This brings our full-year 2016 guidance to full-year 2016 billings in the range of $1.476 billion to $1.484 billion, up 20% year-over-year at the midpoint. We expect total revenue to be in the range of $1.254 billion to $1.260 billion, up 25% year over year at the midpoint. Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be approximately 74%. We now expect our non-GAAP operating margin to be approximately 13% to 13.5%. Finally, we continue to expect non-GAAP earnings per share to be in the range of approximately $0.64 per share to $0.65 per share based on an expected diluted share count in the range of 176 million to 177 million fully diluted shares. In closing, I would like to thank Fortinet employees, partners, customers and shareholders for their continued confidence and support. With that, Ken, Michelle and I will now take your questions. Operator you may start the Q&A.