FirstService Corporation (FSV) Q3 2025 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Welcome to the FirstService Corporation Third Quarter Investors' Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Today's call is being recorded. Legal counsel requires us to advise that the discussion scheduled to take place today may contain forward-looking statements that involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results may be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements contemplated in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the company's annual information form as filed with the Canadian Securities Administrators and in the company's annual report on Form 40-F as filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Today is October 23, 2025. I would like to turn the call over to Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Scott Patterson. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, Didi. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our third quarter conference call. Thank you for joining us. I'm on with our CFO, Jeremy Rakusin. And together, we will walk you through the results we reported this morning. I'll begin with an overview and some segment-by-segment comments. Jeremy will follow with additional detail. Total revenues were up 4% versus the prior year, driven by tuck-under acquisitions completed over the last 12 months. Organic growth was flat overall, as gains at FirstService Residential and Century Fire were offset by organic declines in our restoration and roofing platforms. EBITDA for the quarter was up 3% to $165 million, reflecting a consolidated margin of 11.4%, generally in line with the prior year on a consolidated basis. Finally, our earnings per share were up 8% to $1.76. Looking at divisional results. FirstService Residential revenues were up 8% with organic growth at 5%, in line with expectation. Solid net contract wins versus losses have led to an improvement in organic growth sequentially. We expect similar growth for Q4 in the mid-single-digit range. Moving on to FirstService Brands. Revenues for the quarter were up 1% in aggregate, with growth from tuck-under acquisitions largely offset by organic declines of 4%. Revenues for our two restoration brands, Paul Davis and First Onsite, were up sequentially relative to Q2, but down versus the prior year by 7%. I mentioned last quarter that we were pleased with the level of activity, both day-to-day at the branch level and in terms of our wallet share gains with national accounts. That continued into Q3. Industry-wide claim activity and weather-related damage was very modest across North America and generally down in every region, but we still generated higher revenue sequentially than the first 2 quarters of this year. We believe we're capturing market share gains during this prolonged period of mild weather. We were down from the prior year, as we were up against a very strong quarter, particularly in Canada, that benefited from significant flood and wildfire restoration work. As well, storm-related revenues in the U.S. were minimal this quarter compared to Q3 of 2024, when we generated about $10 million of revenue from named storms, primarily Hurricane Ian. Looking to Q4, absent widespread inclement weather or named storms over the next few months, we expect to be down from the prior year quarter by about 20%. We generated $60 million of revenue from Hurricanes Helene and Milton in Q4 of last year. On average, since 2019, our revenues from named storms has exceeded 10% of total restoration revenues. Based on our visibility today, we anticipate this year's revenues from named storms to land at less than 2%, a big drop that impacts Q4 in particular. Apart from cat storm events, which we all believe will, on average, increase in frequency, we continue to grow and improve our platform and believe we're in an excellent position to capitalize on the long-term opportunity in restoration. Moving to our Roofing segment. Revenues for the quarter were up mid-single digit, driven by acquisitions. Organically, revenues declined 8%, an improvement over Q2, but below expectations. We simply did not convert backlog into revenue at the rate that we anticipated. We continue to see the deferral of large commercial projects and a general reduction in new construction. Our 3 largest operations all benefited last year from several large industrial roof projects that have not been replaced this year. Most of our year-over-year decline relates to these specific operations. Bid activity remains solid, but award activity has been delayed. We're confident that our market position and relationships remain strong. The uncertainty in the macro environment is definitely impacting new commercial construction and causing delays in reroof and maintenance decisions. We continue to believe that the demand drivers in roofing and generally in commercial building maintenance are compelling, and we remain focused on investing in this segment. As evidence of that, we were pleased during the quarter to announce the acquisitions of Springer-Peterson Roofing in Lakeland, Florida and A-1 All American Roofing in San Diego, California. These operations extend our presence and capability in two key markets. The Springer-Peterson and A-1 teams will continue to operate the businesses, and we're excited to have them on board with us. They jumped right in, collaborating and creating value with our existing operations in the regions. Looking ahead to Q4, we expect total roofing revenues to be up modestly from prior year, again due to acquisitions. Organically, we expect continued weakness, with revenues down 10% or more in the seasonally weaker quarter. Moving on to Century Fire. We had another strong quarter, with revenues up over 10% versus the prior year. Growth continues to be broad-based across the branch network and again, is supported by robust repair, service and inspection revenues. Our backlog remains strong at Century, and we expect similar double-digit year-over-year growth for Q4. Now on to our home service brands, which as a group generated revenues that were flat with year ago, right on expectation, and a result we're proud of in the current environment with weak existing home sales and broad economic uncertainty. Consumer sentiment remains depressed and is down from Q2. Our lead flow reflects this trend. Our teams have held revenue steady by driving a higher close ratio this year, combined with a higher average job size. They are executing extremely well in a challenging environment. Looking forward, we expect a similar result in Q4, with revenues roughly matching the prior year quarter. Let me now hand it over to Jeremy.

Thank you, Scott. Good morning, everyone. Leading off with a recap of our consolidated third quarter financial results, we recorded revenues of $1.45 billion, up 4%, and adjusted EBITDA of $165 million, a 3% increase relative to the prior year period. Our consolidated EBITDA margin for the quarter was 11.4%, down slightly from last year's 11.5% level. Adjusted EPS during Q3 was $1.76, resulting growth of 8% quarter-over-quarter. The growth on the bottom line exceeded our EBITDA performance as we saw the benefit of reduced interest rates on lower outstanding debt compared to prior year. I'll provide more details on our balance sheet in a few moments. For the 9 months year-to-date, our consolidated financial performance includes revenues of $4.1 billion, up 7% over the $3.85 billion in the prior year; adjusted EBITDA at $425 million, a 13% increase year-over-year, with our overall EBITDA margin at 10.3%, up 50 basis points versus a 9.8% margin for the prior year period. And lastly, our adjusted EPS year-to-date is $4.39, reflecting 20% growth over the $3.66 reported for the same period last year. Our adjustments to operating earnings and GAAP EPS in providing adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS, respectively, are disclosed in this morning's press release and are consistent with approach in prior periods. I'll now walk through the third quarter performance within our two divisions. At FirstService Residential, we generated revenues of $605 million, resulting in 8% growth over the prior year period. EBITDA was $66.4 million, a 13% increase over the third quarter of last year. Our current quarter EBITDA margin came in at 11%, up 50 basis points over the 10.5% in Q3 '24, extending the year-to-date margin improvement we have realized through ongoing operating efficiencies and streamlining efforts across our property management platform. Our teams have done a terrific job of execution, driving to a year-to-date margin expansion of 60 basis points. For the upcoming fourth quarter, we expect some tapering of these favorable impacts, leading to margins roughly in line to slightly up versus prior year. Shifting over to our FirstService Brands division. We generated revenues of $842 million during the current third quarter, up 1% versus the prior year period. EBITDA for the division was $102.1 million, down from the $105.8 million last Q3. Our margin of 12.1% compressed 50 basis points compared to the 12.6% margin in last year's third quarter. The lower margin was attributable to negative operating leverage resulting from tempered activity levels and declines in organic top line growth at our restoration brands and roofing operations. Our Home Improvement and Century Fire Protection brands continue to deliver healthy margins, roughly in line with prior year. Reviewing our cash flow profile, we generated more than $125 million in cash flow from operations during the third quarter, driving to a total of $330 million year-to-date, a significant year-over-year increase of roughly 65% compared to prior year period's. Capital expenditures during the quarter totaled $34 million, and spending year-to-date sits at a little under $100 million. We expect to be in line with our annual target of $125 million in CapEx for 2025. Acquisition investment during the quarter was approximately $45 million, largely encompassing the roofing tuck-under acquisitions that Scott noted. Our balance sheet at quarter end included net debt of $985 million, resulting in leverage at 1.7x net debt to trailing 12 months EBITDA. Maintaining a strong balance sheet has always been a cornerstone of FirstService's operating philosophy and has been aided by the ability of our businesses to collectively generate strong and relatively consistent free cash flows in any type of environment. This has played out once again over the past almost 2 years since our Roofing Corp of America platform investment at the end of 2023, with the steady quarterly deleveraging bringing us now back in line with our long-term historical trend. We also have more than $900 million of total cash and credit facility capacity, providing us with ample financial flexibility and liquidity. In terms of outlook, to close out 2025, Scott has provided top line indicators by brand, which will aggregate to revenues roughly in line with prior year for our upcoming fourth quarter. This will culminate in mid-single-digit growth in consolidated annual revenues for the full year. We expect that our 2025 consolidated annual EBITDA growth will be in the high single digits, approaching 10% compared to prior year. During our February year-end earnings call, we will provide indicators on our outlook for 2026. And that now concludes our prepared comments. Didi, can you please open up the call to questions?

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Daryl Young with Stifel.

I just wanted to touch on the divergence in the performance between Century Fire and the roofing business. And I would have expected that both of those would have had similar end markets, and so it's just a bit interesting to see the performance delta between the two. Is there a specific end market versus industrial versus data center or something like that, that is maybe driving the difference between the two divisions?

Daryl, there's a few things. I'll start with the fact that Century, close to 50% of the business is service repair and inspection, more recurring in nature. And then you've heard from us over the last couple of years that Century has been very successful in driving consistent growth in this aspect of the business. Century does have a piece of its business, again, close to half, it's tied to new construction. It's been more resilient than our Roofing Corp of America platform, in part based on the verticals that it focuses on, as you alluded to in your question. Century has benefited from the growth in data centers. And also, they have a strong multifamily business that has been -- remained solid through the year. Their strong results are hiding the fact, though, that a number of jobs continue to be delayed, deferred at Century, similar to what we're seeing in our roofing platform. Work is not being released at the same rate as the prior year, although bid activity remains strong. Hopefully, that answers your question.

Yes. That's good color. One more for me, just on margins. The margins in the Brands division were actually, I would say, fairly healthy in the context of the weak restoration and roofing results. So just wondering if you can give me a little bit of color on where the strength is coming from in margins in that platform?

Yes. Thanks, Daryl. I'll take that. I touched on it, home improvement, a lot of initiatives over the last year or 2, 1.5 years and in a tough environment for the top line have really produced superlative profitability. Century Fire, we have top and bottom line, a terrific performance throughout. We've made great strides in restoration over the last couple of years. And even in periods of mild weather patterns like we're experiencing, just the focus on the brand, the platform, the client relationships, the national accounts that Scott touched on, a lot of efforts around that. And then there has been some streamlining and headcount reductions in appropriate places as we've centralized a lot of functions. So just terrific execution there, and notwithstanding the mild weather patterns that we've seen year-to-date.

And our next question comes from Stephen MacLeod of BMO Capital Markets.

Just a couple of questions I wanted to follow up on. Maybe the first one is kind of in line with what you were just -- or dovetails with what you were just talking about, Jeremy, just on the restoration side. You talked about having gained some share in the market despite the weak backdrop. And I'm just curious if you can point to kind of where that's coming from?

I think it's a lot of the things that Jeremy just referred to. It's the hard work our teams are doing in positioning with national accounts, solidifying the account base. We have evidence that we are gaining wallet share with a number of our larger accounts, and we're signing new national accounts. It feels healthier across the board. We just have more activity across the branch network. We're not relying on any one event or one region to drive results. And I think it sets us up well to continue gaining momentum in mild weather conditions, but also to really benefit during more significant weather conditions.

Right. Okay. That's helpful, Scott. And then maybe just on the margins and looking at the FirstService Residential business, you guided to sort of flattish margins year-over-year for Q4. And I'm just wondering if some of the streamlining that you've seen that's led to the improvements in recent quarters, is that kind of coming to an end? Or is that more reflective of the seasonal Q4 weakness? And I guess, would you expect those kind of benefits to continue into 2026?

Stephen, I'll take that one. 2026, we'll go through budgets with the businesses, so I'll defer on that point. But in terms of the outlook for Q4, I think we've known all along that the performance should taper. We've been working on these initiatives or the teams have at FirstService Residential for the better part of a year or more. And we saw it carry through. We've had significant margin improvement. There's also some moving parts in the quarterly fluctuations. And so what we're seeing in Q4 between the mix of higher-margin ancillaries, the timing in terms of hiring teams in face of contract wins, when we're going for contract renewals and getting pricing, there's a whole bunch of moving parts in this large enterprise. So it's just what we're seeing, but we're always working on initiatives. And again, I think we'll have more to speak about in terms of margin outlook for '26 on the February call.

Okay. That's helpful. Thanks, Jeremy. And then maybe just one more, if I could. Just maybe more higher level when you think about restoration and roofing, where we're seeing some of the near-term temporary macro headwinds. Do you believe this is just, particularly in roofing, just a delay of work that people are -- your customers are putting off? And I just want to confirm, is that more of a delay that you expect to get back over time?

We certainly expect to get back, but we need some -- we need macroeconomic stability to see improvement in commercial construction and to give buyers more comfort and confidence to release work. It's -- we're in an uncertain environment, and it's definitely impacting roofing. And of course, in restoration, we need some weather. And I said in my prepared comments that this is the lightest year that we've seen since we took the big step with our acquisition of First Onsite in 2019. And -- so we expect both to improve. When we made these decisions, originally, our focus was and remains on the long-term opportunity in both these spaces. There is more fluctuation quarter-to-quarter and year-to-year. But on the flip side, there are more tailwinds and opportunity as well. So we remain focused on the long term in these businesses. We believe that there's a huge opportunity in both of them. And we've got the right teams and the right platforms to capitalize on them.

And our next question comes from Stephen Sheldon of William Blair.

Maybe just starting on the M&A front. Can you talk some about the level of competition you're seeing for tuck-under deals? And is it generally getting tougher to deploy capital towards M&A at attractive valuations in this environment? So yes, just be helpful to get any color on what you're seeing there in terms of competition across the different segments, if you could.

Yes, Stephen, I think it's definitely competitive. Multiples remain high, particularly in fire protection and residential property management. They've been at elevated levels for a few years now. Very competitive environment. Multiples are trending higher in roofing. I've indicated previously that there are literally dozens of private equity-owned roofing platforms that are competing for acquisitions. So similarly, very competitive in that space. The one thing I would add is that activity has actually slowed in roofing this -- in the last couple of quarters, slowed considerably due to the uncertain environment and the fact that most roofing companies are experiencing exactly what we are and are down year-over-year. So there's a number of processes that have been pulled this year or deferred until results improve. But those are all private equity-owned, generally. And they'll be back to market. But to answer your original question, it is very competitive. I don't know if it's increasingly competitive. But as always, we've got to make smart decisions and pick our spots. And we've been in that place the last few years. And we have opportunities in the pipeline, and we'll deploy capital every year. We'll find a way.

Got it. That's helpful. And then just maybe to dig in a little bit more on the slowdown in roofing awards. I guess you kind of answered earlier, it seems like it's kind of macro factors. I guess, any more detail you can give on some of the bigger factors weighing down roofing projects moving forward even with the strong bid activity? And this is not -- this would be a tough question to answer, but just how long do you think it could take for decisions there to be made and activity to move forward, especially on the reroofing side? I mean, I get new construction permitting starts are down. But on the reroofing side, it seems like -- how long could this kind of be a pause in activity?

Yes. I mean, I don't know the answer to that. Certainly going to carry through Q4. I do think we need macroeconomic stability. Some of these reroof projects can be patched and sort of prepared and kicked down the road for a time. So it's -- I would say it's uncertain right now. For us, I mean, the good news is that we have 24 branches, and most of them are performing at approximately year-ago levels or even better. We do have these 3 large branches that last year, were benefiting from significant large new construction and reroof work. And some of these jobs are $10 million to $15 million. So if they're not replaced, it can skew a quarter. But generally, backlogs in roofing are stable. They are weighted towards reroof. As a reminder, we're generally 1/3 new construction, 2/3 reroof and repair and service. Our backlogs are weighted at that even more heavily towards reroof. And so it's going to take some time. We just don't know. But again, I'll just repeat, the long-term demand prospects are excellent. Our thesis has not changed. The aging building stock, increased frequency of weather events, increased legislation around building codes and other drivers. The other thing I would add is that last year in Q4, our Florida operations were benefiting from weather, and we're not seeing that this year. And so that's 1 of the 3 operations that are down. And that is -- they're missing a few of their large roof projects, but it's also being impacted by weather. So weather would certainly help in a few areas for us.

And our next question comes from Himanshu Gupta of Scotiabank.

So just a follow-up on the roofing weakness here. Is there any commercial asset class, specific commercial asset class or geography which is where you're seeing most of the contract deferrals and weakness? I think you did mention Florida, but any other region or within...

One of our larger branches is in Las Vegas, and that market is very soft. And we see that, Himanshu, in all of our other brands. We're weak in Vegas, really across every business that we operate. So that's -- each of these branches has a little bit of a different story. In terms of the asset classes -- I think I can only really speak to new construction, and it's down everywhere except for data centers, and that's not a vertical where we have participated historically in our roofing platform.

Got it. And I mean, assuming that the new construction cycle is further delayed, like without the help of new construction cycle, how much organic growth can you deliver, assuming the strength in reroofing business comes back?

Organic growth in roofing?

That's right, yes.

Well, we've been down every quarter this year, in part because we were surging in a few areas last year. But we'll reset here and get -- and we'll start growing. We'll get to a point. Our branches are strong. The leadership at our branches are strong. It's -- this is market-driven. We're in a good position, and we'll start to see the growth come back. I just can't tell you -- I can't give you dates in time. We need more clarity in the marketplace.

Got it. And is Roofing still a segment where you want to grow from an M&A point of view? Or would you wait for this weakness to pass and then get more active on the M&A side?

We're definitely interested. I mean, our thesis really hasn't changed at all. We're very pleased with the transactions we did last quarter. We continue to look -- we have priorities. We're focused on white space areas to build out the platform. We're very focused on fit with our culture and the people at any business that we'd be interested in. If we find the right opportunity, absolutely, we will participate.

Got it. And then turning attention to restoration business. Can you comment on the backlog? I mean, in terms of the magnitude or directionally speaking, like, how is the backlog today versus last year or versus last quarter? And also, if I exclude the strong activity, how is the backlog looking?

The backlog is about the same as prior quarter and a little off from last year. And it's off from last year for some of the reasons I talked about in my prepared comments, just the strength we had in Canada with -- and some remaining named storm work. And at the end of September, we did start to see a little bit of Helene and Milton get into the backlog. So we're a little off from last year, but solid and healthy based on the environment we're in. I feel good about it.

Got it. And my last question is on FSR, FirstService Residential. I mean, good to see organic growth back to 5% level this quarter. Question is, is Florida also at mid-single-digit level? Or is it a bit slower than the rest of the portfolio? And I remember, you've been talking about budgetary pressures in Florida a bit more than some of the other regions, so just to check how Florida is doing.

Yes. Florida is, I'd say, in line. And the budgetary pressures have been relieved a bit because the insurance market stabilized. It's still a difficult one because there are many communities that are underfunded. So it's our largest region, and it can influence results for the division, and we've seen that. But it's holding its own right now and is up low- to mid-single digit in the prior quarter, Q3.

And our next question comes from Tim James of TD Cowen.

Just wondering if you could talk about the relationship between sort of pricing and costs in each of the different segments? And I realize that involves kind of different brands to talk about on one side of the business. But I'm just thinking about as we look forward or into next year and beyond, is there -- do you feel fairly confident that kind of your pricing power, if I can call it that, is going to be or is suitable to offset any cost pressures? Or is there potentially an opportunity to push pricing and actually use that as a lever to push margins slightly higher?

Jeremy, over to you.

Yes, Scott, I can take that. Well, right now, we think we're in a good equilibrium with FirstService Residential. We've always talked about that business being a very price competitive industry, always has been, and currently is in line with historical trends. So we're always needing to look for efficiencies even to maintain margins, and the teams have been very successful with that over time. In terms of the Brand side of the business, the Brands division, Century Fire, I think quarter in, quarter out, year in, year out, has been getting good pricing power in their business, and don't see any pressures there. Home improvement, it's a watch for us. Obviously, the top line, Scott spoke about lower lead flow, but we're converting at a higher rate, and the top line is holding in there. We will flex pricing there accordingly to ensure that we keep revenue -- top line growth and profitability intact. And right now, we're not using promotional activities extensively, with the exception of some local marketing. So we see that holding. I think the one area where we could see it is in roofing, the availability of labor, subcontractors in some of our operations versus self-perform, resulting in a little bit of an uptick in our cost there and perhaps competing more for reroof jobs with our competitors. Pricing and margins could come in a little bit there. But we're going to go through budgets with all of our businesses in November and through the end of the year, and we'll have greater visibility for '26, which we'll communicate in the appropriate fashion with you on the February call.

Okay. That's really helpful. My second question, and kind of along a similar track. Again, the margins are actually, I think, really good considering the challenges that the business had. But are there any particular initiatives that we should think about on the cost side or on the efficiency side? And I guess I'm thinking more about in the Brands business sort of going forward, where you're looking to focus on -- again, not maybe to drive net margin improvement, but to kind of stand still or to keep just making the business more efficient or making sure that you're keeping as cost competitive as possible.

I mean -- and that's exactly what we've been doing. I mean, we do it every year, year in and year out. The businesses are focused on healthy profitability. The last year, we pointed out the strides we made in home improvement. Longer term, I alluded to it in one of the earlier questions around the performance in the restoration brands over the last couple of years, focusing on the brand, focusing on accounts, but also streamlining costs. So every brand -- and including FirstService Residential, the strides we've done this year, always looking for ways to be more efficient. I wouldn't call anything major out for significant margin improvement in the Brands division heading into 2026. And if we do -- if any of that surfaces during the budget discussions, again, we'll build that into our thinking and communicate it in February.

[Operator Instructions] And our next question comes from Sean Jack of Raymond James.

Just quickly switching back to roofing. If the short-term macro has been softening for a while, do you expect this to make acquisitions easier in the space coming up, especially and like specifically with mom-and-pops?

I don't see that. And again, it's because of the number of private equity-owned roofing platforms that are in the market. Private equity firms have made a bet on the space. They are all focused on adding to their platforms. And so we need to differentiate ourselves and focus on the long-term brand-building strategy that we have. I don't think it will be -- we'll value it appropriately, based on the results of the business. But I don't see us having an advantage or it being any easier to buy the companies.

Fair, fair. Looking at that brand-building strategy you mentioned, is there any new offensive strategies you guys are employing to position or gain share while the broader macro is weak?

Nothing of note. I mean, we -- the strategy, the focus we have on building iconic brands over time is all focused on people and customer service, building culture and incrementally improving the platform, and that does take time. But we approach these investments with a very long-term focus and timeline.

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. This concludes the question-and-answer session and today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.