Earnings Labs

FirstService Corporation (FSV)

Q3 2019 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 23, 2019

$137.71

-3.71%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-5.80%

1 Week

-8.56%

1 Month

-1.49%

vs S&P

-5.19%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Third Quarter Investors Conference Call. Today’s call is being recorded. Legal counsel requires us to advise that the discussion scheduled to take place today may contain forward-looking statements that involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially different from any future results, performance or achievements contemplated in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to materially differ from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the company’s annual information form as filed with the Canadian Securities Administrators and in the company’s annual report on Form 40-F as filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. As a reminder, today’s call is being recorded, October 24, 2019. I would now like to turn the call over to the Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Scott Patterson. Please go ahead, sir.

Scott Patterson

Management

Thank you, Denise and welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to our third quarter conference call. Thank you for joining today. I'm pleased to be here with our CFO, Jeremy Rakusin to walk you through a very strong growth quarter for us, which reflected high single-digit organic growth balanced across both divisions and the inclusion of Global Restoration. I will start with a high-level review and some quarterly highlights and then Jeremy will provide a more detailed review of our financial results. Revenues were up 33% over the prior year with organic growth at a robust 8% and the balance from acquisitions, primarily the acquisition of Global Restoration, which closed on June 21 and is included in our results on a full quarter basis for the first time. EBITDA was up 30% year-over-year and reflects 20 basis points of margin dilution, primarily as a result of the mix change from the inclusion of Global. And finally earnings per share were $0.92, up 3% in the face of higher interest cost, a higher share count and a higher tax rate. Jeremy will flush this out in more detail in a few minutes. At FirstService Residential revenues grew 13% in total, 8% organically. The 8% organic growth represents the strongest level we have reported in over three years and reflects robust sales activity late in 2018 and for the first six months of 2019. The sales success has been weighted towards larger communities with significant staffing requirements and higher-than-average revenue. These have included many large high-rise and master-planned communities which have been areas of focus for us over the last several years. Growth was broad based across all regions but with particular strength in Florida and California, our two largest markets. We also generated strong growth in our Arizona, Nevada and British Columbia markets.…

Jeremy Rakusin

CFO

Thank you, Scott. Good morning, everyone. As you've just heard, we reported solid third quarter financial results. The consolidated performance included revenues at $672 million, adjusted EBITDA at $77.1 million and adjusted EPS at $0.92, up 33%, 30% and 3%, respectively. I will walk through the drivers for each of these Q3 figures in a moment. In terms of our nine months year-to-date performance, our consolidated results line up as follows; revenues of $1.73 billion, up from $1.43 billion in the prior year period, an increase of 21% including 7% organic growth. Adjusted EBITDA at $171.3 million, a 21% increase over the $142 million last year, driven by top line growth with the consolidated margin matching last year's 9.9% and adjusted EPS of $2.38, up 20% versus $1.99 per share reported for the same period last year. As always our adjustments to operating earnings and GAAP EPS arriving at adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS respectively are summarized in this morning's press release and are consistent with our disclosures in prior periods. I'll now walk through our segmented highlights for the third quarter. At FirstService Residential, we generated revenues of $375.2 million, an increase of 13% year-over-year. Our EBITDA for the division increased 11% to $39.8 million with our margin declining modestly by 20 basis points to 10.6%. We have called out in recent earnings calls that our quarterly margin trend would bounce around from here on in as the business morphs into a top line growth driven story and so profitability for the division was in line with expectations. Shifting over to our FirstService Brands division, we reported revenues of $297.1 million for the third quarter, an increase of 70% versus the prior year period. EBITDA during the quarter increased to $40.8 million, up 53% over the prior year. Our…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from George Doumet with Scotiabank. Your line is open.

George Doumet

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open

Good morning, guys.

Scott Patterson

Management

Good morning, George.

George Doumet

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open

Can you talk to the EBITDA margin performance?

Jeremy Rakusin

CFO

The EBITDA margin performance for overall?

George Doumet

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open

Yeah. Just the GRH and company-owned just to get a sense of the margin performance – just trying to get a sense of the delta last year versus this year?

Jeremy Rakusin

CFO

Yes. So, we've been focusing on the brands division a big chunk of the margin dilution going down from 15%-plus to high 13% would have been layering in Global Restoration. Last year, they would've had margins above 10%. This quarter more in and around 10%-ish that's a function of declines in activity levels and also the investments that Scott cited in terms of growing this out for long-term growth, but also just mathematically bringing that business in to a division that did 15% last year coming in at lower margins would account for the biggest chunk of the brand's dilution.

George Doumet

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open

No. I was referring maybe not at the segment level, but maybe just at the operations like just GRH itself and maybe Paul Davis company on itself how they – this year's – this quarter's performance versus last quarter's performance just on a margin level?

Jeremy Rakusin

CFO

Revenue is down 10% on – due to low activity levels. EBITDA down more than 10% margin's down due to the fixed cost structure.

George Doumet

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open

Okay. That makes sense. And just – I know it's early days but can you maybe give us an update on the plans for filling out the vender network at all at GRH? And would you guys expect that effort at all to impact margins?

Scott Patterson

Management

Well, the vendor network is filled out George, but I think maybe you're referring to layering in the Paul Davis network as part of the global vendor network.

George Doumet

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open

Correct.

Scott Patterson

Management

And that certainly started during the quarter and we expect that to continue. The net impact of that would be to increase revenues at Paul Davis the margin to – at the global level will not change and really it won't impact the margins at Paul Davis, it's more of a top line revenue driver. But very positive and we made some – definitely made some progress on that during the third quarter.

George Doumet

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open

I agree for that. And on the – on some of the profitability headwinds that you guys called out at the residential some strong organic growth. But can you maybe call them out is it labor is it mix? Where do you expect those to be kind of in the next couple of quarters?

Scott Patterson

Management

Yeah. It's labor unless we have a operating efficiency initiatives, which we've had for many years unless we have that in addition to the typical pricing we're getting on our contracts it's very hard for us to get big margin increases. So, we're obviously dealing in a tight labor market, tough to get good people, wage inflation perpetuated through. And we're getting price that matches that, but the operating efficiencies that we're layering on top to generate the margin improvements have been largely had. The team's always looking for future opportunities and it will continue to do so. But we said the margins would bounce around could be up or down on any given quarter. I would say for the balance of the year probably much of the same as Q3, but for the full year we're going to hold margins from last year's 9% pretty flattish. We'll go through budgeting with the team to -- as an outlook for next year but probably more of the same.

George Doumet

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open

Okay, that's great. So one last one if I may. On -- Jeremy maybe on the working capital. It seems like a sizable drag in the quarter. I think we're running closer to 2% of revenues I think typically we were closer to 1%. I guess how should we think of that number going forward maybe after we kind of layer on GRH?

Jeremy Rakusin

CFO

Yes. Before GRH our working capital usage was one -- on a normalized basis in some quarters, we've had some anomalies, but would typically be one-ish percent of revenues as a use and we see that ticking up a little bit. Look there's going to be seasonality at Global particularly in the back half of the year as -- if you get a year-over-year storm activity levels, insurance claims, longer days outstanding on receivables all of that is going to move the trends around working capital intra year. But on the full year basis, it will take up our working capital usage a little bit a rough sense is maybe 1.5% of revenues versus 1%, but not materially so. This quarter as I mentioned there was some other things AR was actually down and we had some other money going out the door as I spoke about in my prepared comments.

George Doumet

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open

Okay. Thanks for your answers.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Stephen Sheldon with William Blair. Your line is open.

Stephen Sheldon

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open

Thank you. Good morning. So you'd communicated this pretty clearly that it's the first quarter in a long time where residential adjusted EBITDA margins were down year-over-year. So you've given some color on that but just wanted to ask one the appropriate expectations at this point for margins in residential over the next few years? And two if there's any potential impact from a revenue mix shift and specifically do you see stronger margins in high-rise contracts versus maybe other property types?

Scott Patterson

Management

Yes. Just on the latter part of your question Stephen, the mix of property types and contracts is not a real driver at all on the margin front. Some of those property types that we're targeting high-rise, master-planned, lifestyle it afford us more revenue associated with those properties and ones where we can differentiate better but the margin profile is pretty comparable to the rest of our roster of properties. And in terms of where we see margins, our best visibility for the next couple of years is pretty well in line with where we finish 2018 and where we think we'll finish 2019 kind of flattish. And we'll look to work with the team and see if there's others optimizations, but it's not going to be a lot of margin improvement from here on in as I said in my prepared comments this is primarily if not all top-line driven.

Stephen Sheldon

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open

Okay. Got it. And then I guess second how has now owning both Global Restoration and Paul Davis impacted your broader restoration pipeline? Have you become an even more attractive potential acquirer now than you were before the Global Restoration deal? And have you seen any change in inbound interest since the deal was announced in May?

Scott Patterson

Management

I think, that's true, Stephen. I mean, clearly, we are a leading player in the restoration market in North America. The whole market has taken notice. And if -- there certainly has been some inbound and we've been very active in trying to bolster the pipeline. And I can assure you that everybody is taking our call and wanting to know more about our strategy and our path forward. So I certainly think that that's true and the pipeline is quite active. We've been very busy this quarter, wanting to get off to a strong start in commercial restoration.

Stephen Sheldon

Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open

Great. Thank you.

Scott Patterson

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Stephen MacLeod with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Stephen MacLeod

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Thank you. Good morning, guys.

Scott Patterson

Management

Good morning.

Stephen MacLeod

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Just a couple of questions here. With respect to the FirstService Brands business, you called out sort of the shortfall on a year-over-year basis from PDR and Global Restoration. Was all of that attributable to -- like, would that shortfall number all be attributable to increased hurricane activity last year? Or is there anything else, any other areas that were weaker on a year-over-year basis?

Scott Patterson

Management

No. It's all tied into the two hurricanes and the California wildfires in both cases. We did -- at both platforms probably over 20% of our revenue in Q3 last year was related to those events and it was -- similar area-wide event activity this year would have been less than 5%. So the fact that they were only down 10%, really speaks to the sort of day-to-day organic growth that they achieved during the quarter.

Stephen MacLeod

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Right. Okay. That's helpful. And then, switching to the FSR business. You talked about the sales initiative that was driving pretty significant organic growth through the first three quarters of the year and peeking in Q3. Just curious, why would you take your -- why are you taking the foot off the gas pedal with respect to that specific sales initiative? Or is it just finding a better balance between new contracts and attrition rates?

Scott Patterson

Management

Yes. It wasn't a specific initiative. I would say that, we continue to refine our approach. We become much more focused and specific in targeting certain properties and certain verticals and we talk about those, the high-rise and the master-planned and the active adult. I think, generally, our sales teams are more experienced in finding their rhythm. So we're not taking our foot off the pedal. I think, what's happened is, the competition has responded and primarily with price. It's the same old story. It's a very price-competitive market and many to most of our competition the -- really the only practical way that they can compete with this is on price. So our sales did slow in Q3, and we expect them to be slower in Q4, and so we do see that balance between sales and retention sort of settling back in. And we will have -- we continue to work on it and we will see surges in the future. It's very fluid. But long-term I would suggest that we believe the organic growth rate in this business is mid single-digit. It'll pop up or pop down from that level, but long-term we still believe it's mid single-digit.

Stephen MacLeod

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay. Okay. Thank you. And then just on the tax rate. You were up in Q3 and Jeremy you talked about the full year still coming in that mid-teens range, but as we roll into 2020 is Global Restoration having an upward impact to the tax rate? Is that the way to think -- is that why it's higher in Q3 and Q4?

Jeremy Rakusin

CFO

No. It's a good question, Stephen. No. I mean, 2020 would sure be in line with 2019. We think we'll be at 25% perhaps a bit better in 2020. The quarterly differentials this quarter were really a function of some stock-based incentive comp that gets deductions. They were pre-spin-off options they're rolling off completely now. We're done with that middle of 2019 and typically they get exercised in the first half of the year and that's been a pattern each year, but we're not getting any of that in the back half of this year, doesn't change our full year your tax rate though.

Stephen MacLeod

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Okay. That's great. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Matt Logan with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Matt Logan

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Thank you and good morning.

Scott Patterson

Management

Hey, Matt, good morning.

Matt Logan

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Hi. Scott on your huge aspirations for the restoration business, can you talk a little bit about the potential growth and maybe how we should think about the evolution of the character of the earnings over the next three to five years?

Scott Patterson

Management

Ask that a different way, Matt. What do you mean?

Matt Logan

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

I guess, one, how should we think about the absolute growth? And as you execute some of your initiatives, do you see less earnings volatility going forward?

Scott Patterson

Management

Well, listen, I think area-wide events will always be an aspect of this business. Our goal is to rely on that less than the market in general does. And on average Global over the last six or seven years about 15% to 20% of their revenue has been from storm activity. We're not necessarily targeting to reduce that, but we are very, very focused on adding new national accounts and increasing our share of every national account and thereby driving organic growth and ensuring that we're getting the day-to-day restoration work from these accounts. So, organic growth like all of our businesses will be number one. We have to be winning day-to-day and then we look to enhance that with tuck-under acquisition and we're very focused on expanding our geography and increasing our service capability in some areas to meet the needs of our national customers. I don't know if that answers your question, but it should resemble to rest of our business in terms of the revenue growth going forward.

Matt Logan

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

That's good color. And maybe just thinking about the quarter, how do you think the restoration business performed relative to say the broader industry?

Scott Patterson

Management

We think a lot about that and it's not crystal clear the metrics out there to measure it, so it's more of a field thing. But certainly if we hadn't grown our platforms, we would be down by more than 10% our revenue and so that gives us some comfort. We did at Global, we added a number of national contracts and we believe that we improved our positioning with a number of contracts. That didn't translate during the quarter into revenue. We will know over time with more clarity, but I will tell you that we're very pleased with the progress at both Paul Davis and at Global. Still very early days, obviously, with the Global team.

Matt Logan

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

And maybe thinking about your business outside of the restoration segments. Are you seeing any signs of the slowdown in renovation spending or perhaps conversely some incremental support from lower interest rates?

Scott Patterson

Management

Well, the sales of existing homes were up in Q3, which was in response to the lower interest rates and does help home improvement spending. It was down the previous two, three, four quarters. Home prices continue to increase, which is perhaps the biggest driver. So there's still support and tailwinds in the home improvement market and we've seen that particularly at Cal Closets and CertaPro Painters but we did -- leads are slowing I would say, but still robust.

Matt Logan

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

I suppose they're still robust and you've been able to generate north of 10% organic growth, so that seems to be positive.

Scott Patterson

Management

Right.

Matt Logan

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

Are you seeing the same labor pressures in your brands division as you are in the residential division?

Scott Patterson

Management

Yes. Absolutely. We feel like we had a strong quarter on the labor fronts just because the production was so strong, which means that we were able to define the cruise, find the frontline labor to install or produce the work and as I mentioned in my prepared comments weather was a big factor. It had held us back in the spring, particularly in the southeast of the U.S. it was very, very wet. But we had a dry third quarter and that certainly helped drive the organic growth at Cal Closets, CertaPro and Century Fire in particular.

Matt Logan

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

And maybe just last question for me on FirstService Brands. Thinking about the organic growth for Q4, should we think about that come in the low single-digit range or flattish for Q4, some of the lower cat activities offset -- offsetting the growth in the rest of the business?

Scott Patterson

Management

Yes. Flattish to slightly down perhaps and it's simply a result of the strong Q4 that Paul Davis had last year over 30% of our company-owned revenue of Paul Davis in Q4 last year is from the hurricanes and California wildfires and we don't expect to see that revenue this year.

Matt Logan

Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open

That's all for me. Thank you very much.

Scott Patterson

Management

Thanks, Matt.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Daryl Young with TD Securities. Your line is open.

Daryl Young

Analyst · TD Securities. Your line is open

Good morning gentlemen.

Scott Patterson

Management

Good morning, Daryl.

Daryl Young

Analyst · TD Securities. Your line is open

A couple of high-level questions for me. First off, it seems like Century Fire is doing very well and I wanted to get a sense of if there was any plans to potentially cross sell services between Century Fire and maybe some of the commercial restoration operations? And maybe if there is a longer-term strategy there?

Scott Patterson

Management

Longer-term strategy for sure. I mean there is an interesting tie between Century and Global and Paul Davis when sprinklers burst and water is put on the ground. A fire company and a restoration company are the first calls. So there's an interesting crossover, but it will be long-term opportunity Daryl. Century they had another very strong quarter 10% plus organic growth and they have -- their backlog's never been higher and so they are very, very focused on producing the work that they have in their backlog taking care of their current customers it's -- we're not really in a position to push more in their direction.

Daryl Young

Analyst · TD Securities. Your line is open

Got it. Okay. And then secondly, just in August there was an acquisition by an insurance company of a restoration company here in Canada. And I was just wondering if there is -- that's a trend you're seeing across the U.S. as well? Or if there's an appetite for more in-sourcing of restoration services by the insurers?

Scott Patterson

Management

Yes. That was interesting I guess for the benefit of others Intact insurance bought On Side Restoration. On Side is a mid-tier Canadian restoration company not to be confused with our brand in Canada FirstOnSite. And it's -- we're not sure what the strategy is, I guess they want to cap their restoration company. The risk is that other insurance companies will drop On Side, which would impact the value of their investment. So watching closely. That's the only instance of that we've seen and we haven't heard of any other situations like that. Net-net for us, it's not material just because of the size of On Side they can't do all of Intact's work so we -- Intact is a customer of ours. And we expect they will continue to be a customer, but yes watching closely I would say.

Daryl Young

Analyst · TD Securities. Your line is open

Okay. Great. And then final question. Valuations in the Restoration and the Fire space has there been any change in terms of what the tuck-unders are trading at and transacting at in the market today?

Scott Patterson

Management

I would say that they are trending up in both cases because of the private equity interest in both of those markets, whether it's direct from a private equity firm or from a platform that's backed by private equity. We particularly at Fire, we're focused on smaller tuck-unders, but we still see it there. So trending up.

Daryl Young

Analyst · TD Securities. Your line is open

Okay. Great. But still reasonable valuations and so lots of targets on the horizon.

Scott Patterson

Management

Yes. Yes.

Daryl Young

Analyst · TD Securities. Your line is open

Okay, great. Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Marc Riddick with Sidoti. Your line is open.

Marc Riddick

Analyst · Sidoti. Your line is open

Good morning. I wanted to touch specifically on comments that you made regarding some of the investments and brand work that you have in front of you. I was wondering if you could put a little more detail around that what your plans are and the timeframe that you have in mind? And also if you could sort of quantify what we should be thinking about as far as those investment expenses going forward?

Scott Patterson

Management

Right. Well I mentioned our aspiration in my prepared comments and we are committed to building the number one commercial restoration brand in the market. Global today is not a platform that can scale to $1 billion, $2 billion without investment. And so we -- that's what we started on in the quarter and that enterprise-wide technology platforms, CRM HR. We operate under three or four different platforms today and we made some significant hires; a Chief Risk Officer, Chief Marketing Officer. So we -- this is a path that we're familiar with. This is a path we went down with FirstService Residential. We will be measured in - I guess how quickly or aggressively move down this path, but it's one we -- that's clear to us. And I mentioned also the brand journey that's a part of it. We have four different brands today, as we do acquisitions that will increase. So we're moving to one brand. We expect that to launch in -- later in 2020. It's -- I mean, it's very exciting. We're very excited about the alignment that we have with the Global team and the direction we're taking together. It will be a number of years as it has been at FirstService Residential. In terms of the quantum that's something that is -- we don't have mapped out. We spent a few million dollars this year and it will -- we're just getting into our budget season and we'll sort of lay that out for the next several years between now and year-end.

Marc Riddick

Analyst · Sidoti. Your line is open

Okay. But the concept of sort of -- the idea of, I guess ultimately consolidating to one brand is what we're shooting for at some point in 2020 as far as that being client-facing that folks will end up seeing that your customers will end up seeing, that's something that we should view as a 2020 event?

Scott Patterson

Management

Yes. And just for -- just to be clear, that does not include, Paul Davis. This -- I'm speaking only about the commercial and large loss restoration space, where we operate under this program …

Marc Riddick

Analyst · Sidoti. Your line is open

Okay.

Scott Patterson

Management

… today. Paul Davis, will continue to be our brand in the residential and light commercial space and we have huge aspirations for that brand as well.

Marc Riddick

Analyst · Sidoti. Your line is open

Okay. So as the, I and forgive me, I don't know if you're planning on going over this at the moment. But, is the idea to have one brand for both the states -- that covers the States and Canada?

Scott Patterson

Management

Yes.

Marc Riddick

Analyst · Sidoti. Your line is open

Okay. And then, -- now is this something that -- is there anybody that you're working with to undertake that particular journey, like the advertising phase or what have you. Or is that something that you guys are mapping out yourself?

Scott Patterson

Management

No. We've -- we're in stride. We have some advisers. And we're well underway.

Marc Riddick

Analyst · Sidoti. Your line is open

Okay. Okay, great. Thank you. I appreciate it.

Scott Patterson

Management

Thanks, Marc.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Stephen MacLeod with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Stephen MacLeod

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Thank you. I just had a quick follow-up question. I just wanted to clarify, some of -- Scott your commentary. I think it was around the FSV, organic growth. And up against a tough comp from last year, I think it was 14% looks like. Did you say you expect organic growth to be flattish to slightly down, on the year-over-year basis?

Scott Patterson

Management

Yes, in brands, Q4.

Stephen MacLeod

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open

Yeah. Okay. That's great. I just wanted to clarify that. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And there are no further questions queued up at this time. I'll turn the call back over to Mr. Scott Patterson.

Scott Patterson

Management

Thank you, Denise, and thank you everyone for dialing in today. And we look forward to early February year-end call.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.