John Donahue
Analyst · Stifel. Please go ahead
Hi, good morning, John. I will tackle the secret to leasing first, why do we have the progress and the short answer is demand and able to finalize deals that have been in the works for quite a bit of times, 6 to 12 months or longer in some cases. And then we believe that the energy markets have turned the corner a bit, especially for our properties in Denver, in Houston in particular and so we have been able to finalize and have a better average, if you will, over the last few months. So, has there been a tick up in TI costs and concessions, yes, but not dramatically so. We are still in the same track where we are in between $4 and $5 per square foot per year and have we needed to cave on rental rates, not necessarily so, some of our smaller markets in Minneapolis, where we did a lot of leasing in the first two quarters, the rental rates for the portfolio appeared to be down, but that’s because we did leasing in smaller markets. Rental rates are little bit higher for this quarter and we expect them to be higher in the fourth quarter, because we are doing more leasing in our other core markets where we have the highest rental rates. So, I don’t think there is any secret sauce, it’s just the combination of demand in the energy markets and we are making progress. In regards to the rollover, it’s sort of a long answer, but bear with me, if we say that we have roughly 13% of the total portfolio with expirations in calendar 2018, there are 4 significant tenants expiring that makeup almost a roughly half of that total. Both Northrop Grumman and the IRS are engaged and we expect them both to renew and then Burger King is likely to holdover for a number of months, we don’t know exactly how long yet and they will eventually depart, but that is probably going to be at a later date than expected. We will have that space to work through, but Blue Lagoon property in Miami is very well-positioned and we welcome the opportunity to multi-tenant that building. And then finally, Fannie Mae will depart early, although the release doesn’t expire until Q4 and we are already getting a jumpstart on that pre-leasing. And as you have probably heard us say, the Addison Circle property in Dallas have been very strong performers for us. So, we expect that to release fairly quickly. So, after you subtract those 4 tenants, the exposure is down to about 6.5 of the portfolio and we are making progress with engaged tenants on renewals. So, barring any surprises there, we expect to renew about 60% to 70% of those remaining tenants, which then reduces our exposure to approximately 2% of the portfolio. So, we think that the role is manageable and we are seeing good things and hopefully we will have a great batting average and we will see how things turn out. It’s a very balanced, staggered expiration roll over the year with no departures really late in the year or even slipping into 2019. In regards to 2019, we have a few anchored tenants that we are engaged with and so we expect some early renewals there, but those will take another 6 months or so to work through. Hopefully, that gives you a sense of where we think we are going to end up.