Earnings Labs

Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)

Q4 2021 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 10, 2022

$112.29

+1.01%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-3.04%

1 Week

-4.59%

1 Month

-3.80%

vs S&P

-2.57%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Federal Realty Investment Trust Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn this conference over to your host, Ms. Leah Brady. Thank you, ma’am. You may begin.

Leah Brady

Analyst

Good afternoon. Thank you for joining us today for Federal Realty’s fourth quarter 2021 earnings conference call. Joining me on the call are Don Wood, Dan G., Jeff Berkes, Wendy Seher, Dawn Becker and Melissa Solis. They will be available to take your questions at the conclusion of our prepared remarks. A reminder that certain matters discussed on this call maybe deemed to be forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking statements include any annualized or projected information as well as statements referring to expected or anticipated events or results including guidance. Although Federal Realty believes that expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, Federal Realty’s future operations and its actual performance may differ materially from the information in our forward-looking statements and we can give no assurance that these expectations can be attained. The earnings release and supplemental reporting package that we issued tonight, our annual report filed on Form 10-K and our other financial disclosure documents provide a more in-depth discussion of risk factors that may affect our financial condition and results of operations. Our conference call tonight will be limited to 75 minutes. We finally ask that you to limit yourself to one question during the Q&A portion of our call. If you have additional questions, please re-queue. And with that, I will turn the call over to Don Wood to begin the discussion of our fourth quarter results. Don?

Don Wood

Analyst

Thank you, Leah and congratulations to you on your promotion to Vice President of Investor Relations this month. Really well deserved and we are sure lucky to have you. Well, good afternoon, everybody. What makes Federal’s business plan so different is our multifaceted approach to capitalize on these best located, best tenanted retail properties with a laser focus on bottom line earnings growth, 104 individual assets with a proverbial toolbox filled with numerous ways of achieving that goal for years to come. Took a global pandemic to knock us off our horse for a time, but we are back up and we are riding high. 2021 was the first step, where each quarter throughout the year exceeded our constantly upwardly revised expectations. That trend continued in the fourth quarter, with FFO per share of $1.47 handily beating our forecast, and of course, last year. The shining star of the business continues to be leasing as it’s been a whole year, but it was taken to new levels in the fourth quarter. I need to put this into context, so bear with me for a minute. First, on a company-wide basis in the fourth quarter, we signed 149 commercial leases, that is retail and office but not including residential leases, which itself was really strong, for nearly 900,000 square feet of space. That includes renewals of existing tenants, along with space that here sits vacant today, is expected to be vacant in the coming months or as for new buildings currently under construction or just completed. That’s an annual base rent commitment of nearly $35 million. Consider that over the last 10 years, an average quarter’s outlook produced about 110,000 commercial – 110 commercial leases and 500,000 square feet. That means that in this quarter, we did 35% more deals or…

Dan Guglielmone

Analyst

Thank you, Don and hello everyone. Our reported FFO per share of $1.47 was up 29% from the fourth quarter of last year and roughly $0.06 above the top of our guidance range. For the year, we reported FFO per share of $5.57, a 23% increase over 2020’s results. Both of those reported increases exclude the one-time debt repayment charge from 4Q 2020 in order to show a meaningful apples-to-apples comparison. Primary drivers of that outperformance versus expectations were higher percentage rent from COVID-amended leases bolstering better collection rates; a faster acceleration in occupancy than expected; stronger leasing at our residential assets, including the Phase 3 residential at Assembly; lower real estate taxes than we had forecasted; plus financing activity, which occurred later in the quarter than expected. This was offset by higher G&A; higher property level operating expenses, primarily one-timers; and lower term fees than we forecasted. For those analysts that keep track, we had $1.7 million of term fees for the quarter against a 4Q 2020 level of $3.6 million. Collections continued to improve, with 97% of monthly billed rent being collected for the quarter, up from 96% reported on our third quarter call. Including abatements and deferrals, we are 99% resolved. Prior period collections were down to $5 million versus $8 million in 3Q. And as a result, our collectibility adjustment was up modestly to $2 million, primarily driven by this prior period follow-up. Collection of deferrals continue to outperform our expectations. Of the $46 million total rent we deferred since the start of COVID, $27 million has been collected, which represents roughly 90% of the amounts that were scheduled to be repaid by year end. Don already highlighted our record breaking quarter and year of leasing, but let me add some additional color. As you mentioned,…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler. You may proceed with your question.

Alexander Goldfarb

Analyst

Hi, guys. Good afternoon. So two questions here. The first question is, obviously, on the apartment side, what we’ve seen all around is the rent rebounds and rent growth is tremendous. On the retail side, the sales recovery has been just off the charts. I mean, the mall companies have been saying it’s well exceeded 2019. You guys are talking similar. It’s hard to believe that this is all just a catch-up of people staying in their homes during 2020 and early 2021. So do you think there is something else at work? Or is this just like a one-hit wonder. We all rebounded this year or 2021, and then sales are leveling out? Or do you think that people have sort of – and retailers themselves have rediscovered retail, and therefore, this accelerated sales pace is sustainable in the next several years?

Don Wood

Analyst

Yes, Alex, I mean that is the – I mean, that’s the question of the day. The – everything we said, we seem to see. And again, it’s looking at it through our view, which is not a national view. It’s really primarily a postal view, suggests that this – that the recovery of sales, etcetera, are here to stay. I do think there was something very interesting that happened through COVID in terms of people’s realization of how important socials was. It’s really important into how going out to eat and to play at the shop is. So I think a lot of that states. The other thing, and you kind of touched on it early in the first part of the question, I want to address it is the residential side. There is no doubt that places – and again, our residential outlook is only on a few places. But it got hurt as you think about it going into COVID. The way it’s recovering is pretty interesting to me. And we have a really interesting barometer. If you remember at Assembly, pre-COVID, we were opening up a big 500-unit building that we call Montage. And in that building, in the fourth quarter of ‘18, October, November, December of ‘18, before any COVID, that building, we had average rents of $3.35. Ironically, we’re now opening the second building, which is also 500 units, and it’s right next door. It’s called Micelle. It’s leasing up faster than we thought, and it’s leasing up at $3.85 in that fourth quarter, 15% more than pre-COVID at Assembly Row. It’s really interesting. And if you look at the deals that are happening in January and February, it’s not a big sample size because of January and February in Boston, but those are well over $4. So there is something that’s happening here with respect to lifestyle, with respect to shopping, with respect to certainly the office piece in terms of what’s to come there that is really – that really feels to me like an energized pre-COVID time that, to some level, is here to stay.

Alexander Goldfarb

Analyst

Okay. And then the second question is – with the recent – the prime waves that have happened and stores that have been targeted, I mean, your portfolio has been hit. On the public earnings calls, all the companies that I’ve asked so far, everyone said, there is a little bit more security costs but no tenant has changed their leasing plans or is moving stores. And yet when we speak to people and some of the companies privately or speak to others that are involved in retail in urban settings, it’s a different story. So my question is, is it just that, in general, there is really been no fallout. There is increased lease security costs, but in general, there is been no leasing fallout. Tenants really aren’t shifting their portfolios or is it that, yes, in certain markets, they are seeing a change, but it’s not a change that is appearing nationally as the retailers look at their fleets?

Don Wood

Analyst

I can really only respond to our properties in our markets, and I can tell you there has not been a change in any of the retailers’ plans for moving forward because of price.

Alexander Goldfarb

Analyst

Okay, okay. Thank you, Don.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Craig Schmidt with Bank of America. You may proceed with your question.

Craig Schmidt

Analyst · Bank of America. You may proceed with your question.

Yes. Thank you. You guys have come out of COVID being rather aggressive, impressively so on your external growth. You’ve really taken up your acquisitions and you continue to push on your redevelopment. I’m just wondering though, with the continued pressure on cap rates, may you start to favor redevelopments over acquisitions just because it’s tougher to buy and adding value when cap rates are so attractive is a compelling proposition?

Don Wood

Analyst · Bank of America. You may proceed with your question.

Great question, Craig. Let’s let Jeff jump on that first, particularly from the acquisition side.

Jeff Berkes

Analyst · Bank of America. You may proceed with your question.

Yes. Hi, Craig, good evening. I think you’re right on the point. We were really happy with what we got done in ‘21. As Dan mentioned in his prepared remarks, we got that those deals done in the first half of the year, generally speaking, which was great. All the properties we bought in ‘21 have great redevelopment and value-add opportunities going forward, which as you know we think is very important when you are buying something. The second half of the year [indiscernible] tightened up yield now, whether you’re talking about cap rate or IRR, are lower than they were pre-pandemic. And where public equity trades in the teens on average, it’s a real head scratcher as to how you make the numbers work for your normal grocery anchored neighborhood or a community center. The numbers just don’t work, especially when you look out a few years and what the growth of the property level needs to be to support the implied growth in the equity that’s issued by the asset. I think you’re spot on. And as you know, we’re careful about that kind of stuff. We’ve always been really disciplined because we’ve never felt pressured to buy anything because we have, as Don said, so many tools in the tool bag. So we will continue doing what we’ve done for the last two decades that most of us have been here and will be careful about what we buy and make sure it’s got good go-forward growth prospects, densification opportunities, lease-up releasing, all that kind of stuff. But certainly, if you don’t have the ability to source that stuff, if you don’t have the ability to take advantage of those opportunities, just growing by buying something in today’s market is not a very good idea, in my view.

Craig Schmidt

Analyst · Bank of America. You may proceed with your question.

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Katy McConnell with Citi. You may proceed with your question.

Katy McConnell

Analyst · Citi. You may proceed with your question.

Hi, everyone. Thanks. Just wondering if you could walk us through some of the key swing factors that could get you to the higher or the low end of your updated FFO guidance range? It is still a fairly wide range for this year. And what would need to happen for you to narrow that more throughout the year?

Dan Guglielmone

Analyst · Citi. You may proceed with your question.

It’s Dan. Hi, Katy, how are you? Look, I think that we’ve given a range of 3% to 5% for comparable property. I think that kind of what goes in that is just collections, both prior and prior period as well as kind of going forward current. Also kind of what we do with regards to term fees, which we’ve kind of reduced. Our prior period rents have also been reduced. We’ve given a range. I think you’ll see on Page 33, in our guidance we gave kind of a little bit of a range with regards to G&A expense of $50 million to $54 million. I think it’s a little bit of a sense of the range of development, redevelopment capital that we can put to use. And then also how much equity we raise. We’ve also – how quickly some of the rents can come online at our developments as well as the rest of the year, how we can get things rent started. So I think there is a whole host of those. I think our – we’ve given a range of credit reserve at around 2%, plus or minus 50 basis points. That’s another one. Obviously, that shows up, will be reflected in the 3% to 5% comparable to an extent. But those really, I think, kind of are levers that get us there with regards to that stated range of guidance. Again, it does not include dispositions, does not include acquisitions, does not include any changes in our revenue recognition with regards to cash versus accrual.

Michael Bilerman

Analyst · Citi. You may proceed with your question.

It’s Michael Bilerman here with Katy. Don, I was wondering if you can maybe step back and just think about capital sources and uses. You have $300 million to $400 million of development and redevelopment spend that you have targeted for this year. And in your opening comments, it sounded like there was number of transactions on the acquisition front that you have underway. You list here about $300 million to $400 million of equity, which is effectively – I don’t know if that equity is all common equity. I don’t know if you’re deeming that to be equity selling assets. But just talk a little bit about how you think about funding that growth and how significant it could be.

Don Wood

Analyst · Citi. You may proceed with your question.

You bet, Michael. So the first thing you got to remember is that we’ve got forward equity contracts of $250 million.

Dan Guglielmone

Analyst · Citi. You may proceed with your question.

$260 million, Don.

Don Wood

Analyst · Citi. You may proceed with your question.

$260 million that has already been sold, that will be taken down in 2022 at some point. That’s important. Incremental equity in our budget is another $140 million or so on top of that. We’re also looking at selling a couple of assets that probably should think – you should think about another $100 million or so there. So what we’re really certainly trying to do is be very balanced with respect to the capital that we would use – that again, have raised a lot of it already. That’s important. We’re not going to lever up the company. We’re going the other way. And so the notion of new deals and how those deals would be financed, they’ll stand on their own. And we will figure out the best way to finance those depending on what type of assets they are, where we’re going. But with respect to the stuff that’s committed, we’re in really good shape because of the pre-funded equity so far and the couple of dispositions that we would do.

Michael Bilerman

Analyst · Citi. You may proceed with your question.

And I guess from a volume perspective, how do you think about – you added all the yield back to the supplemental, thank you for that. Some pretty attractive yields relative to where the acquisition market is being priced and certainly relative to where you got those deals off last year, so I guess, why not activate more of the stuff that’s in your wheelhouse versus going out and paying lower cap rates for acquisitions and issuing equity at a discount to where your NAV is, right? I mean due to diluted…

Don Wood

Analyst · Citi. You may proceed with your question.

First of all, I fully agree with you, Michael. I fully agree with you, which you have to first really mixture you get is all the capital that has been spent to date that has not – that is not yet producing. And that is automatic FFO growth, automatic property level growth. And it is the single biggest source of growth in the next couple of years after plain old lease-up of a portfolio that is still under lease in terms of where it goes. Those two things are huge. The other thing with respect to acquisitions, and this is where I could not agree with you more. They have got to make a lot of sense. Now I will tell you that there is one that we’re looking at specifically in order to handle a 1033 transaction that we had a couple of years back. So there are – we will step up to be able to do a deal that makes sense overall on an overall tax reform tax perspective. But beyond that, your point is 110% right. I couldn’t agree with you more.

Michael Bilerman

Analyst · Citi. You may proceed with your question.

Okay, thanks. See you at Coco in a few weeks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Greg McGinniss with Scotiabank. You may proceed with your question.

Greg McGinniss

Analyst · Scotiabank. You may proceed with your question.

Hi, good evening. I guess looking at leasing, the leasing volumes are obviously quite strong. Rent spreads are slightly less exciting. Could you just talk about market rent growth that you’re seeing relative to 2019? And then in what regions you’re either seeing more strength or recovery in rent growth?

Don Wood

Analyst · Scotiabank. You may proceed with your question.

Yes. I can start on that. When, you jump in wherever I screw this up. But the – when we sit and we look at 6%, 8%, 9%, something like that, which is where we expect to be overall, that is – that’s about where we are overall compared to not only ‘19, but what is in place all the way through. When you look specifically to ‘19, and I just did this to get comfortable with it, we are 3%, 4%, 5%-or-so higher than 2019 overall. That doesn’t mean, and I have said this 100 times, that it will always be the case that there aren’t specific deals that will either drag that down or drag that way up. In this particular quarter, I got a – was a good example of it. We had a CDS in line at Barrett’s Road, one of our best shopping center that we could not accommodate a drive-through. They left the shopping center to go across the street for a drive-thru. Those things happen. That was a big rent payer that wouldn’t be able to be replaced without that deal, those rollovers that would have been eight for the company. So, there is always a couple of things like that. They go both ways throughout the company. But overall, you are talking about a level of demand that’s in excess of the supply of our particular product. So overall, you should expect that continued growth in rents. The other thing is, though, you have kind of translate that down to the bottom line. And when you hear big numbers of rollovers, but no growth at the bottom line, you kind of sit there and say, what, because from my perspective, taking – being able to expand that properties that are fully settled as great retail destinations like a Pike & Rose, or like an Assembly, like a Santana Row, to be able to add buildings to expand what you have. My gosh, that’s great risk-adjusted growth. That really needs to be thought through and considered in terms of it. So, both the leasing and the expansion and the PIPs, the property improvement plans, all of that, when that happens, winds up, I think would show you bottom line growth that is consistent and sustainable for a number of years. That’s the name of the game.

Greg McGinniss

Analyst · Scotiabank. You may proceed with your question.

Alright. Well, thank you. And then just regarding those potential acquisitions that you and Michael were referencing, what are you seeing in the market from a cap rate perspective? And how do you think that impacts the value of your portfolio? I know, Dan, a few years ago gave us his NAV estimate, which I believe you weren’t too pleased about. I am giving in the first place to comment otherwise, which we all appreciate it…?

Don Wood

Analyst · Scotiabank. You may proceed with your question.

First of all, Greg, that’s just good topics between Dan and I. It’s not – we are on the same page in terms of that. Look, I don’t know. It’s been – it’s so well publicized. It’s so well clear that really strong shopping centers today are in the markets that we want to hit or some general. I mean that’s really – when you take a look at the big projects that we have, when you look at what the value of CocoWalk is going to be when you come and see it, when you take a look at what’s being added at Pike & Rose, at Assembly, etcetera. I think you are going to – I think it’s pretty obvious that you are talking about sub-5 across the board in this company. Not at every shopping center, but across the board in store. And so when you look at that, you can do the math. That’s the way you think the NAV should be. But to me, that NAV is critically important. The most important thing about that, that ties obviously into the cap rate. Where is the growth, man, how are you going to grow it and what’s that thing going to be like in a few years because that’s what a buyer is paying for.

Greg McGinniss

Analyst · Scotiabank. You may proceed with your question.

Okay. And then just to follow-up on that, with the new structure in place, should we expect to see some use of that structure in terms of OP units to help on the acquisition side?

Don Wood

Analyst · Scotiabank. You may proceed with your question.

Maybe yes, maybe no. That is – that was an administrative change that was, frankly, we found a relatively simply the simple way and inexpensive way to do it or do foundationally to be able to do that, such that so that we weren’t in any disadvantage should the opportunities come up. So, I know it’s not a bad thing in any way you look at it. And to the extent some of the deals we are talking about are looking at can utilize that and give the particular seller more comfort, great. But I couldn’t handicap it with you is that – so yes, that means we will do four deals instead of one deal or that kind of thing. But it’s generally a good thing.

Greg McGinniss

Analyst · Scotiabank. You may proceed with your question.

Alright. Thanks.

Don Wood

Analyst · Scotiabank. You may proceed with your question.

You bet.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Juan Sanabria with BMO Capital. You may proceed with your question.

Juan Sanabria

Analyst · BMO Capital. You may proceed with your question.

Hi. Thanks for the time. I think you mentioned about 150 basis points of occupancy growth in the prepared remarks from year-end to year-end. But just curious if you can give us any sense of the cadence throughout the year. Typically see some seasonality in the first quarter, but that seems to have gone out the window with COVID here and the recovery to-date. So, just curious if you have any wisdom to share on how we should think about occupancy for ‘22?

Dan Guglielmone

Analyst · BMO Capital. You may proceed with your question.

Yes. I think that growth – and it’s a range where we are trying to get up into that 92.5% to high-90s range. I think you should just model it pro rata by quarter. I don’t think there is a particular key in terms of where – how that increase will occur on the occupied metric.

Juan Sanabria

Analyst · BMO Capital. You may proceed with your question.

Okay. Great. And then just on Santana West, hoping you could give us a little color on how those leasing discussions are progressing, any expectation for signing a lease here in the near-term to give us more confidence? And maybe adding that incremental NOI to like a ‘23 property NOIs as that development comes on, or how should we think of the timing of that potentially?

Don Wood

Analyst · BMO Capital. You may proceed with your question.

On this particular issue, I have never been so toured in my life about talking more than I should or less than I should on this. I know what I am very comfortable with is that the conversations that are happening are a bit of a horserace right now. And the notion of kind of helping one versus the other, I don’t want to signal anything on that more than to tell you that we are making some good progress. I am not going to put a time on it, and I can’t give a little bit more given the nature of the negotiations at this point. Sorry.

Juan Sanabria

Analyst · BMO Capital. You may proceed with your question.

Understood. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Haendel St. Juste with Mizuho. You may proceed with your question.

Haendel St. Juste

Analyst · Mizuho. You may proceed with your question.

Hi Don. Hope you guys are well. I wanted to ask you about the cash basis tenants, still pretty elevated here. I don’t think there is a change versus last quarter. I guess I am curious why we aren’t seeing more progress on that given the backdrop. You are doing tons of leases, rents are going up. How do we square that versus the optimism that’s early, obviously, in your voice and your outlook?

Dan Guglielmone

Analyst · Mizuho. You may proceed with your question.

What are you referring to with regards to your question regarding the cash basis tenants?

Haendel St. Juste

Analyst · Mizuho. You may proceed with your question.

The percentage, I am looking here at 26% of – let’s see.

Dan Guglielmone

Analyst · Mizuho. You may proceed with your question.

Yes. There is no plans for us to switch them back from a cash basis to an accrual basis. There is likely to be some fairly high hurdles for us to do that. And look, even pre-COVID, we had a big chunk. Most of our restaurants on a cash basis to begin with already. So, I wouldn’t anticipate – it’s not as though there is any progress, we need to see kind of repayment of deferrals, you need to see other progress with regards to consistency and payments, and then we will make those decisions. But I wouldn’t anticipate anything in – and that’s why we have nothing in our guidance with regards to making that change from cash to accrual.

Haendel St. Juste

Analyst · Mizuho. You may proceed with your question.

Yes. Got it. And for clarity, but what was that pre-COVID, what was the range relative?

Dan Guglielmone

Analyst · Mizuho. You may proceed with your question.

Probably around kind of the mid-teens as a percentage of ABR, just a big chunk of that was restaurants, and then our normal cash base has been tenants of lower rent quality, lower quality tenants at any one point in time.

Haendel St. Juste

Analyst · Mizuho. You may proceed with your question.

Got it. Okay. Thanks for that. And a question on rent commencements, last year, certainly, the focus on rent collections, this year, more so on rent commencement. And I am just I guess I am curious to a question of supply chain and labor constraints. Any risk of perhaps not meeting some of the rent commencement timelines and risk to the side note opened rents? And any sense of anything you are able to do to perhaps compress some of those timelines or work with tenants in any way? Thanks.

Don Wood

Analyst · Mizuho. You may proceed with your question.

Yes. The answer is yes to all the questions you just asked about it Haendel. I mean look, supply chain is a big deal. And are we able to do stuff about it, you bet we are from the standpoint of certain of the components of it, whether you are talking about HVAC equipment, whether you are talking about some of the provisions in the lease where that tenant will work with us, there are things that we have done and continue to do. And as Wendy loves to say, and boy, you can’t argue with this, is great relationships with tenants means that there is a partnership there in trying to get a store open. And that partnership means there is more likely to have a give and take in that – in the build-out process of where you can find the right equipment to be able to get stuff in. And we have had some real good success getting started with that. Does that mean there is no risk on the supply chain side, the store opening, of course, not. But it tells you differently as you look at them square in the eye because that’s what’s going on in the country right now. But we are all over, and frankly, have been all over for quite some time, floating staffing up there, including helping as best we can with relationships in the cities on the permitting side, which is always the least predictable part of this. So, all hands on making sure that the 3 million square feet of leasing that has been done at this company in the past is able to have its best chance for starting before or on the dates that we have got forecast.

Haendel St. Juste

Analyst · Mizuho. You may proceed with your question.

Could you guys give an updated number for the side but not yet rents? I think last quarter, that figure was like $25 million. You expected 90% to hit this year. Can you give us…?

Dan Guglielmone

Analyst · Mizuho. You may proceed with your question.

Yes. No, with sign and not occupied, that – what’s identified and a difference between our leased and occupied is about $23 million. We have also got a big chunk that is effectively about $17 million. That is in our non-comparable or basically currently in our redevelopment pipeline as well as what’s in our current pipeline of kind of 2022 deals that have been signed so far and going forward gets you up into the $50 million-plus of total rent starts potentially. So, we feel good about where we stand, and we see that as a big driver of some upside in over ‘22 and into ‘23.

Haendel St. Juste

Analyst · Mizuho. You may proceed with your question.

Wonderful. Thank you, guys.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Floris Van Dijkum with Compass Point. You may proceed with your question.

Floris Van Dijkum

Analyst · Compass Point. You may proceed with your question.

Thanks guys for taking my question. Actually following up on what Haendel asked about as well. I mean, if I do the math, I see excluding the NOI coming online from the development pipeline, which could be up to $75 million, you have got more than $10 million of NOI growth sort of identified here if I add up all of these pieces. So, if we start factoring this out, and obviously, not all of it is going to come online in ‘22, but a significant amount will be probably back ended in ‘22 into ‘23, but we are looking here at double-digit NOI growth going into – by the end of ‘23 comfortably double digits. That seems pretty attractive. Are we missing something here?

Dan Guglielmone

Analyst · Compass Point. You may proceed with your question.

Well, keep in mind, I mean, look, we will have strong growth as the developments come online. And I think you can look at our additional disclosure on the big projects to kind of get a sense of that. Keep in mind, though, also there is the offset of capitalized interest going away as we deliver those buildings. We have signed leases there as we deliver those spaces to the tenants. Obviously, we shut off and capitalized interest. So, that’s a bit of an offset. So obviously, that’s what flows down to the bottom line. It’s just not kind of how quickly we grow the NOI on top. Obviously, there is capital associated with some of the redevelopment and expansions that we have got.

Floris Van Dijkum

Analyst · Compass Point. You may proceed with your question.

And then as Don sort of alluded to in some of your residential leasing, presumably, having a building that signing rents 15% higher than next door, that suggests that the existing rents have some significant potential upside here as well. How long will it take, do you think, in your view, to harvest some of that residential rental upside as well?

Don Wood

Analyst · Compass Point. You may proceed with your question.

Yes, that’s a great question, Haendel. And that should be a source of positivity for 2022, particularly through the spring season, and so later in the year, a little bit of luck, we will have that big building up at Assembly all these stuff by the end of the year, which would be great, which would be good stuff for 2023. And really, based on what’s going on in Boston right now, that is a real bright spot from a life sciences perspective and a back-to-work perspective and a job creation perspective. That is one of our, if not our strongest markets, which is interesting because it was a market that was hurt the most during COVID.

Floris Van Dijkum

Analyst · Compass Point. You may proceed with your question.

Got it. That’s it for me.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of Linda Tsai with Jefferies. You may proceed with your question.

Linda Tsai

Analyst · Jefferies. You may proceed with your question.

Hi, can you discuss expectations embedded in your POI growth of 3% to 5%? What’s the balance between growth in revenues and expenses?

Dan Guglielmone

Analyst · Jefferies. You may proceed with your question.

Yes. I think that the – we would expect expenses – we have got a good year with regards to real estate taxes and keeping them low this year, so they should have be grow from this level. I would expect that there should be kind of modest, kind of bigger 3% rent expense growth kind of ordinary course from that perspective. And then obviously, just occupancy growing, with collections growing, with the offset of some prior period and lower term fees and so forth, all factor in. And obviously, some of the credit reserve is embedded in there beyond just the collection impact. So, all of those – but with regards to expenses, I would forecast kind of a traditional kind of 3% increase on both OpEx and real estate taxes. And maybe a little bit higher on the OpEx, just got to get inflationary pressure, but that’s all embedded in that 3% to 5%.

Linda Tsai

Analyst · Jefferies. You may proceed with your question.

And then what are you forecasting for bad debt in 2022?

Dan Guglielmone

Analyst · Jefferies. You may proceed with your question.

It’s – like I said, our credit reserve is call it, 2%, plus or minus 50 basis points. I think there is a bunch of – traditionally, we are kind of in the 50 basis points of bad debt as a component of that credit reserve. It’s going to be elevated, I would expect, probably going to be at least north of 1%. And that’s what’s – and there is a range that’s reflected in that 3% to 5%. But it will be elevated in ‘22 even above kind of the collection in that.

Linda Tsai

Analyst · Jefferies. You may proceed with your question.

Thanks. And then in the earlier comments, you have mentioned that lease-up at Marcella is getting 15% higher rents. Is there anything in particular driving that maybe in terms of the demographics that are moving in?

Don Wood

Analyst · Jefferies. You may proceed with your question.

No, it’s job growth. It’s job growth in Boston. I mean life science is absolutely on fire. It’s returned to work. It’s just a powerful job-creating market, a lot of relocations into the market from other parts of the country. Very impressive.

Linda Tsai

Analyst · Jefferies. You may proceed with your question.

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of today’s question-and-answer session. I would like to turn this call back over to Ms. Leah Brady for closing remarks.

Leah Brady

Analyst

Thanks for joining us today. We look forward to seeing everybody at Citi conference in a couple of weeks.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today’s conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, enjoy the rest of your day.