William Cyr
Analyst · SunTrust Robinson. Please proceed with your questions
Thank you, Katie, and good afternoon, everyone. To begin, I’ll provide an overview of our financial highlights and recent business performance, and then Dick will provide greater detail on our financial results. Finally, Dick, Scott and I will be available to answer your questions. We are very pleased with our start to 2019. It is very clear that our Feed the Growth plan has generated significant momentum with our customers, with consumers and within our team. And that momentum is enabling us to serve more pets and pet parents, fulfilling our mission to change the way people feed their pets and doing that in ways that are good for our pets, for people and for the planet. In the first quarter, we delivered strong net sales growth, our biggest increase in ACV distribution since the first quarter of 2016. Our adjusted gross margin improvement plan showed early evidence of progress and we delivered meaningful improvement on the bottom line despite continuing to invest for growth. It was a strong and well-balanced performance. We believe this provides us with good momentum for the balance of the year and as we March towards our 2020 goals. The robust net sales growth in the fourth quarter continued into Q1, driving a 27% increase in net sales to $54.8 million, slightly above the 24% growth we projected for the year. The growth was broad-based, with Mega-Channel Nielsen measured consumption up 28%, behind 36% growth in grocery, 24% in mass and 18% in big box pet. Same-store sales velocity grew 19%, and accounted for more than 70% of the year-on-year growth. Our core dog business, which is the sum of our dog rolls, roasted meals and Fresh From The Kitchen main meal items was up 29% in the quarter and now accounts for more than 90% of our business. Our small, but rapidly growing e-commerce business, which includes curbside programs with our key customers, home delivery via services like Instacart and Shipt and fresh e-commerce like AmazonFresh and FreshDirect was up 107% in the quarter and now accounts for 2.2% of our business. More than 80% of that business went through our in-store fridge network. Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $2.8 million, up 54% versus a year ago, despite a $3.2 million increase in our media investment versus Q1 last year. We believe this is an early indication that 2019 will be the first year, where we begin to leverage our increasing scale to deliver adjusted EBITDA growth in excess of our strong net sales growth, fulfilling the fundamental promise of significant strategic, operational and financial benefits of scale embedded in our Feed the Growth plan. Recall, we expect to grow net sales in excess of 24% this year and expect our adjusted EBITDA growth of greater than 38% to exceed net sales growth. You will also recall that we set five strategic objectives for 2019. They include: number one, expand the Freshpet consumer franchise; two, strengthen Freshpet’s retail presence; three, strengthen adjusted gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin; four, continued measured development in Canada and the UK; and five, build capability to support accelerated longer-term capacity expansion. We made strong progress against each of these goals in the quarter as follows. First, expand the Freshpet consumer franchise. We successfully grew the size of our consumer franchise versus a year ago and those consumers bought more than they did a year ago. Total household penetration was up 10% versus a year ago and the buying rate increased 16%. Our core dog household penetration was up 18% versus a year ago. The core dog buying rate continued to grow up 12% versus a year ago. This data shows that we are successfully building a bigger and more loyal consumer franchise. Second, strengthen Freshpet’s retail presence. Retailers are increasingly embracing the benefits of Freshpet. Our ACV distribution gains in Q1 were the largest we’ve experienced in any quarter since early 2016. We added 554 net new stores in the quarter, ending the quarter with 20,053 stores. For perspective, we added 273 net new stores in Q1 of the previous year. The addition of these new stores resulted in an increase in percent ACV of 3.5 points versus year ago to 47.4% and total distribution points, TDPs, grew 11%, reflecting both our expanding store count and an increasing number of SKUs in distribution due to our upgraded fridges and second fridges. We upgraded 203 fridges in the quarter, which when combined with the 805 upgrades in 2018, completes the 1,000 upgrades by the end of Q1 of 2019 goal that we committed to last year. Additionally, we now have 341 stores with two or more fridges and some of those have three fridges. We expect to see strong distribution gains continue throughout the year and deliver our annual targets of 1,500 to 1,600 more stores, an incremental 500-fridge upgrades and 800 stores, with two or more fridges This should result in ACV gains of about 7% and TDP growth in excess of 10%. We believe this strong improvement in distribution is due to the strength of our Fresh First retail and consumer concept, retailers response to our two consecutive years of strong and accelerating growth in velocity gains. This is also evidence that our Feed the Growth productivity loop, where increased advertising investment drives increased velocity and that drives increased distribution is working as intended. Third, strengthen adjusted gross margin and adjusted EBITDA margin. Adjusted gross margin in the quarter was 50.4%, up slightly versus the year ago period and up 100 basis points versus the previous quarter. Recall, our adjusted gross margin improvement plan included three key elements: manufacturing efficiencies, largely yield and throughput; pricing; and innovation to improve the mix. In Q1, the improvement versus Q4 was driven by significant gains in productivity throughout the quarter, a little more than one month of benefit from our price increases and the margin benefit of our higher-margin innovations. Taken together, this means that we are making good progress at improving the profitability of our mix. On the manufacturing efficiency element of our plan, we had record production in Q1, which was driven in part by strong throughput and continued improvement in yields. The second component of our margin improvement plan is pricing. Our price increase on selected bag items went into effect in mid-February and has now been reflected on shelf in the vast majority of retailers. We will get the full benefit of the pricing, the total line average of 2% in Q2. While this is still early, our volume growth has not been impacted by the price increases, despite the fact that we took very sizable price increases ranging from 7% to 17% on select items rather than taking a 2% price increase on the whole line. This demonstrates the strength of the Freshpet brand offerings and enabled us to improve the gross margin on the items that consume a disproportionate amount of our line time and with us lower margin. This improvement in gross margin has already begun to flow through our P&L. And third element of our adjusted gross margin improvement plan, product innovation to drive mix is off to a good start. This includes some higher-margin bag items and an expansion of our successful multi-protein offering into rolls and a larger size. The new products began shipping in Q1, but won’t be in full distribution until later in Q2, with the full effect felt beginning in Q3, but they did contribute to a more positive mix in Q1 that Dick will detail. The improvement in productivity and partial benefit from pricing and new product innovation were partially offset by continued hiring and training to staff our fourth line on a 24-hour, 3.5-day schedule in order to keep up with rising demand. Our staffing was hired and trained in Q1 and is scheduled to begin production in the middle of Q2. We’ll see the full benefit in our adjusted gross margin in Q3. For perspective, our HR and production teams have hired and trained more than 120 people in the last 12 months, a 57% increase in production staffing. That enabled us to convert two lines to 24/7 production in mid-January and simultaneously deliver meaningful increases in yield and productivity. Given our rapid growth, this demonstrated capability to hire and train so many highly-qualified employees will be essential to our long-term success. When all three elements of the gross margin improvement plan are fully in place, we believe we can deliver a 51% adjusted gross margin likely in Q4 and that will put us in position to achieve our 52% adjusted gross margin in 2020 behind further volume growth and a fully employed and trained team. We also expect to see a significant gain in SG&A absorption this year, increasing absorption by 240 basis points and a cumulative 500 basis points versus where we ended 2016. Due to our heavy advertising investment and the lumpiness of SG&A spending, we expect to see more of that benefit in the second-half of the year. As a result, SG&A improved by 70 basis points versus a year ago in Q1. But when you exclude our heavier media investment in the quarter versus year ago, we gained significant leverage in SG&A, improving by 310 basis points. We are confident that our plans are on track to deliver our projected goal. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 5.1%, the significant improvement versus the 4.2% year ago, as we began to reap the benefits of increased scale in all parts of our cost structure, while still making significant investments to support Freshpet’s growth. Recall, our adjusted EBITDA was skewed towards the back-half of the year, as it has for the past two years due to our significant media investment in the first-half of the year. Fourth, continue measured development in Canada and the UK. Our UK and Canadian businesses are still in their infancy. Last year, we validated that each of the key elements of the Freshpet model works in both Canada and the UK. This year, we’re making good progress at using those elements to build the strong foundation for long-term growth in each country, that is establishing consumer awareness, increasing velocity and ultimately driving increased distribution. We’re keenly aware that we must be both disciplined and patient in these markets, building out the fundamentals first before making major marketing investments. But everything we are seeing suggest that the long-term growth potential is significant. Our Canadian business was up strongly behind our first national advertising program that drove significant velocity gains in the quarter. Those velocity gains are the fuel that will ultimately drive expanded distribution beyond our current 23% ACV in Canada. We’ve also completed the work to strengthen our distribution system in Canada and that is driving better in-stock conditions. We are very encouraged by this progress. The UK business also made good progress, but it is much earlier in its development. We began national advertising late in Q1 and saw significant velocity gains in our lead customer once it went on air. We expect that to generate incremental distribution over time beyond the 7% ACV we have today. It is still very early days for Freshpet in the UK, but the fundamentals are falling into place and continue to indicate good long-term potential. Fifth, build capability to support accelerated longer-term capacity expansion. We are in the final stages of the permitting process for construction, Kitchens 2.0, and expect to begin construction shortly after those permits are issued. This puts us on schedule to deliver the start-up in the second-half of 2020, as we previously indicated, and we are still projecting that we will spend approximately $100 million. We have also begun recruiting for the incremental capability we outlined in our annual guidance, and hope to have the key personnel in place in the second-half of 2019. Additionally, we are doing the necessary prospecting to select the site for our next capacity expansion in a more geographically diverse location, so that we are ready when rising demand necessitates it. In summary, we are off to a fast start and have significant momentum to enable us deliver our 2019 commitments. These results also give us confidence that we are on track towards delivering our 2020 goals and fulfilling our mission of providing more pets with fresh all-natural foods that enrich their lives and their relationships with their pet parents and doing so in ways that are good for our pets, for people and for our planet. I will now turn it over to Dick to discuss our Q1 financials in more detail and our outlook for the balance of the year.