Paul Pittman
Analyst · Janney. Please go ahead
Thank you, Luca. This is obviously a very good quarter, relatively normal quarter. It’s materially more indicative of the long-term capability and success of the assets we have put together than the first quarter was. Both revenue and AFFO are representative of what we believe this company can do. But I want to make a note of caution. Every quarter will be slightly different. We are reducing what is fundamentally an annual business to a quarterly setup financial results that invariably has some noise in it. Revenue of $11.5 million is 90% above the 2016 similar quarter. What that really demonstrates is the power of the American Farmland Company acquisition and adding those assets to our portfolio. It is also obviously way better than the first quarter both in AFFO and revenue. The first quarter, as we all know, was very effected by onetime events related to the merger. AFFO of $0.10 a share is a 51% increase year-over-year. We are quite happy with that number. Adjusted EBITDA of $8.1 million, that is double of that of the same period last year. I want to apologies for everybody for the confusion and frankly the scar it put in to all of you based on our first quarter results. Those results, though, are a function of GAAP accounting for other types of REITs not mapping to the actual economics of Farmland ownership. But we must comply with those rules when we report our financials. So it fundamentally is what it is. We reiterate our AFFO guidance for 2017 with a midpoint of $0.35 a share. For more information on this, you can see Page 15 of the supplement. Because of the merger, GAAP and timing noise in the first quarter, essentially, our AFFO guidance is missing one quarter of AFFO. This quarter, well good, should not really come as a surprise. If we reported $0.01 of AFFO in the first quarter and we have projected $0.35 for the entire year, you can divide that remaining $0.34 by three and have a rough indication of the amount of AFFO we will have per quarter. However, as we all know, the fourth quarter tends to be the biggest of those quarters. I now want to make a couple of comments about land values versus near-term rental outlook and what the effect of that is on cap rate. The reason for this discussion comes from several questions I have gotten from investors. Fundamentally, land values have remained quite stable. They have not declined very much even in the regions of the United States, where the primary grains are the driver of those Farmland markets. The reason for that, as I’ve said many times before, is farmland is a very long-term asset. It fundamentally is valued based on the long-term outlook of global food demand and land scarcity. Nothing in terms of that long-term outlook has really changed. Therefore, farmers and other buyers of farmland are paying nearly, although not completely, the same prices they would have paid several years ago for row crop farmland. Rents on the other hand are more of a medium-term asset. They reflect a farmer’s view of the revenue potential on that piece of land in the near to medium term, meaning one to five years. Obviously, the revenue potential on those farms has declined in this commodity price environment, and we have seen some impact of that in terms of our rents, when we roll over 2014 leases in particular. So land is very long term, very stable, hasn’t changed very much in value. Rents on the other hand have declined somewhat more sharply. Cap rates are really just a function of the first two things I said. What we have seen is cap rate compression. The cap rate is not the driver. Land values have been sticky. Revenues have come down. So the simple math is the cap rates have come down. If you look on Page 16 of the supplement, we have reduced the cap rate in two different regions that we are seeing in the marketplace, and that reduction comes in the corn belt and in the delta. What that comes from is: we are active in the marketplace, there are numerous transactions going on in the marketplace, and we are seeing properties trade at relatively low cap rates. That is not because the market has decided the cap rate on farmland forever is at that number; it's because the market is saying land value is still sticky, still basically the same as it was, but rents are temporarily depressed in this commodity environment, and that’s fundamentally what is causing those cap rates in the marketplace to come down. If you look at, we’ve added a new page to the supplement that was not there last quarter, called Cropland Value and Appreciation. If you turn to that page, which is Page 17 of the supplement, what we’ve put on this page is USDA data from the land values survey that the USDA produces. We have put both the national number for the last 10 years in terms of farmland value, and we have put the numbers for each state in which we own farmland. I think it's important that investors in our stock see and understand the context the farmland value through time and the impacts of various changes in the overall economy or in ag economy on that farmland. Couple of things to point out, of course, that you are starting to see a modest dip in the national value of farmland between sort of 2015 was the high, 2016 is modestly, but very modestly lower. We anticipate, when this report comes out in august, you will probably see on a national basis another modest decline, but again, quite modest. The reason for that is that while the core of the grain belt is struggling from an ag economy perspective, most of the rest of the country is still showing positive gains to farmland asset values. Couple of things if you look at the indexed portion of this chart in particular, you will see some sort of slightly negative land values over the 10-year period on an indexed basis or even -- or very, very low appreciation rates in terms of a 10-year CAGR. What you are seeing all of those states were that has occurred are in the South East. It’s Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia. What's really going on there is the peak in those markets of “farmland” was in 2007 and 2008. Its fundamentally noise from the real estate bubble showing up in the farmlands statistics, and the reason is the absolute amount of farmland in those states as a percentage of total land, and therefore, the impact of the real estate bubble is more magnified. So your sort of hardcore ag states don’t seem to show that effect. But if you look at those index numbers and you get confused about, “Oh my god, why is Florida look down,” it's really not what’s happening to ag-specific property. There is a lot of noise there from the overwhelming development pressure in that region of the country. Moving on to rents. As we currently see them, historic roll-downs and sort of our outlook for the future. So in terms of the -- I think that there has been some misinterpretation of what we are seeing in the marketplace in terms of rent roll-downs. We experienced three separate buckets of rent roll-downs in the first quarter. And this has all been discussed before, but I want to try it one more time and see if we can clear up the confusion. They came in three different regions of the country, Illinois, Colorado and the Southeast. So let’s start with Illinois and Colorado. We experienced approximately a 15% reduction in rents in a small portion of the Illinois portfolio that was where the leases were originally negotiated at the top of the market in 2014. Those, what occurs as a very practical matter is cash rents, high cash rents from ’14, when you renegotiate them in a more difficult commodity price environment, by definition, you shift that lease to something with a minimum base rent in cash and a bonus, if and when you see commodity price recovery. That’s what we did. You are seeing the -- that 15% reduction will recover quite quickly under our lease structures if we see commodity price recovery. When I say quite quickly, that is not in a quarter. That is over a year or a year and a half that’ll have the roll-through effect on those leases. Colorado, similar situation. We had 2014 era leases, again, a very small percentage of the overall portfolio. But we had 2014 leases rolling over in a more difficult commodity environment. Obviously, Colorado was hit even harder than a place like Illinois. It has to do with basis compared to Chicago Board of Trade. And you saw rent reductions in the neighborhood of 25% on those leases. Those leases, again, are shifted to primarily crop-share style leases in the bottom of the market, like we are in right now, and we will recover incredibly rapidly if we see commodity price improvement. The Southeastern United States is a very different situation, and I’m going to spend just a few more moments on this. We had a major farmer in the Southeast. For their own personal reasons, decide to discontinue farming a substantial amount of their operation had to do with their overall business organization. This family is in many different assets, not just agriculture. When they terminated those leases in essentially Christmas time of 2016, we went out and re-rented that land in about 30 days to other farmers. Because it’s a Southeastern United States, so you are right up against planting deadlines in early 2017, meaning those farms get planted in essentially February or early March. So we re-rented those lands at a -- the rents we have on those lands are approximately 30% lower than the rents we had under the previous tenant. However, and this is an incredibly important however, on an economic basis, the amount of dollars we collect per acre on those farms actually went up, and here is why. When we had originally structured those deals, we had pre-collected 25% of the rents for every year of the lease. Those leases continue for another two or three years from now. And we were able to extract a termination payment from the farm family that wanted to get out of those leases. So on a true economic basis, we don’t know if there will be roll-downs on those farms for another two or three years. What we did was we re-rented those farms quite quickly to very high-quality farmers who will make significant, and are making, significant improvements in those farms fundamentally on the dime of the prior farmer who terminated. That is improving our properties, improving our potential long-term returns and maintaining the revenue stream we thought we had when we restructured those deals in the first place. Of the overall rent roll-downs we experienced from '14, and remember that 2014 is less than $100 million of our total portfolio is from 2014. The rent roll-downs, over half of them are the situation I described in the Southeast, where we do not in fact have lower per-acre economics on those farms. And the long-term outlook for those farms is quite positive. Turning just briefly to commodity price. Now that I’ve said that some of our leases are affected by commodity price, and again, I’ve emphasized this many times, commodity price change does not affect us negatively very quickly nor will it affect us instantly when it returns to the positive. But I think context is important. And so I pull the following facts this morning. If you looked at the December corn contract for December of this year, on January 3 of this year, it was at $3.84. Now it is at $4. That is obviously a significant improvement. If you look at soybeans, they were at $9.83, now they are at $10.24. If you look at wheat, they were at $4.62, now they are at $5.29. If you look at cotton, it’s essentially flat. It was at $0.70 a pound essentially – I am sorry, $70.37 a pound, now it's at $68.11 a pound. If you look at rice, it was at $10.33 per 100 weight, now it's at $12.03. We are beginning to see significant recovery in commodity price. Can't promise anybody whether that will continue or not, but it is likely to continue, and it will have a positive benefit on our future leases and our future rental stream. We do not expect any further roll-downs of the magnitude we have seen in the past. In fact, we think we will start to see gradual increases in rental rates come back into the market. Now, finally, turning to Page 18, and I want to spend just a minute here. And this is an effort to try to bring together some of the data that we have put out in the past, and again, I apologize if it was confusing, and to get everyone kind of level set on what we perceive as the real estate performance potential of the company as it exists today. Okay? So – and I want to caution, this is not changing our guidance. Our AFFO for the year is the midpoint, is $0.35, and it is still $0.35. What occurred in the first quarter has occurred, and we are not going to be able to kind of change it and make those numbers suddenly look better. But if you want to try to think about the 12-month earnings potential of the company, here is a way to think about it. So if you looked at second quarter AFFO per share and you annualized it, and we are using in this example a range of $0.08 to $0.10, the reason we are doing that is to be a little cautious and conservative. So $0.08 to $0.10 leads you to $0.32 to $0.40 of AFFO per share just multiplying that run rate by 4. As I explained, the lease terminations in the -- the lease terminations that we had where the revenue was booked under GAAP in the fourth quarter of ’16, if you – but where we as a practical economic matter are getting those monies attached to the land that we currently own and are currently renting, that is worth approximately $0.06 to $0.08 a share on an annualized basis. And then, if you look at the fact that the fourth quarter is always the strongest quarter for us due to crop-share contribution, we estimate a range of $0.03 to $0.05 of incremental value-add from crop shares in the fourth quarter. It leads you through a total per share on a 12-month run rate basis of $0.41 to $0.53. This, of course, does not take into account -- as I said a moment ago, this is based on the facts that we have today. It’s based on the economic situation, the interest rate situation that we face today, but I think it does give a better example and a clearer example of the performance potential of the company. As I said, future crop price increase or decrease, interest rate increase or decrease, incremental changes in our debt or equity capital or changes in SG&A would throw this off, but it gives a baseline for analysts and investors to work from and think about. I’ve said it earlier, but I do want to say it again. Guidance for the year on AFFO is still at midpoint of $0.35, that’s what you will see as we report through the rest of the year. With that, I am going to turn it over to Luca to make some additional comments.