Paul Pittman
Analyst · FBR
Thank you, Luca. What I'm going to do is spend a few minutes discussing about five separate items regarding our company. The first is to highlight some of the key accomplishments since our IPO. The second is our strategy and why we believe it is correct from a portfolio theory standpoint. Number three is a land value and rent update. Number four is a quick overview and review of the recent wind and solar projects we announced. And finally, item five is to discuss the major East-Central Illinois transaction that we just announced yesterday. So starting with accomplishments since the IPO, and I want to refer you to two pages in our standard investor presentation, Pages 8 and 9, which look at the growth of our company's in terms of both acres and value, and the growth of the company on a per share basis. I think a lot of times it's easy to get lost in a stock price that is frankly somewhat disappointing to us as management, but to look at the big picture for a second of what we've accomplished since April 2014, when we went public. The value of our Farmland at the time of the IPO was approximately $70 million. Now, it is $345 million and that is before giving effect to the transaction we announced yesterday, that will take our total portfolio value to around $545 million. We have capital available and dry powder, if you will, to continue to expand this portfolio without any additional capital raising to something in the neighborhood of $650 million or $700 million. This is a very powerful testament to our ability to create scale and our ability to find and execute on good transactions. From an acreage perspective, at the IPO we had 7,300 acres. Today, we have about 74,000. And again, giving effect to yesterday's announcement, we're now at almost 100,000 acres. That is a very significant total landowner position in some of the very best farmland in the world. On revenues perspective, at the time of the IPO, on an annualized basis, we had about $2.6 million of annual revenue. Now, we will have this year an estimated approximately $16 million of revenue. And again giving affect to yesterday's transaction, we'll be into the mid-$20 million of revenue. So we are rapidly growing the revenue line. AFFO per share, this is a nine month comparison '14 versus '15. In the first nine months of '14, we had $0.21 of AFFO per share, now we're $0.32 of AFFO per share. General and administrative cost per share at the time of the IPO, they were $0.33 and now they are down to $0.25. So on every sort of business operating metric that we as a management team can control, we believe we are performing very effectively, even though the stock price doesn't fully reflect that. Moving on to item number two, kind of our strategy and why we believe -- actually before I do that, I want to just point out one item on Page 9. We also look at our debt per share, and what you would see is the gap between our debt per share or OP unit and our acreage and value per share is getting lighter all the time, meaning this is not a value fully created through leverage. So I just wanted to point that out. If you're trying to follow along the presentation, the next page I will discuss is Page 14. And this is really a review of our strategy and why we think it is the correct strategy from a portfolio development or portfolio theory basis. The fundamental theme that we as a company are trying to attack is the idea that we have global food demand increases in the face of fundamental farmland scarcity. And that's the key theme that has been going on for decades and we frankly think it will continue to go on. So if that's your goal, the question becomes, how do you build a portfolio that gives you the best opportunity to participate in that mega trend. Our perspective is that we should build a portfolio that will approximate on a value basis overall U.S. agriculture production. What that means is you will end up developing a weak portfolio that is largely focused on primary row crops and only modestly focused on specialty crops. So a couple of statistics that sort of inform our thinking about this, and these facts are on Page 14. If you looked at the total market value of U.S. ag production, you would discover that only 11% of it is specialty crops, 7% permanent crops like oranges and apples and grapes and 4% vegetables. The remainder of the other 89% is fundamentally made up of primary crops and livestock. There is a small amount, about 4%, which is sawed and greenhouse, flowers and alike. But the overwhelming bulk, so like 85% is primary crops or livestock. And livestock, you must remember, is fundamentally just the primary row crops in a different form, because the inputs to cattle, to dairy, to chicken and to pork, are these primary row crops. So if you want to have a diverse participation in this global food demand story, you need to be invested in a portfolio that is focused on what that story is really about, and that is the primary drains and the proteins. And in our model, we use the grains as a proxy for the proteins. If you looked at it on an acreage basis and thought about it that way for a minute, the vegetables, fruits and nuts are only 4% of the U.S. farmland acres. So the idea that you should somehow equally balance in the portfolio, the specialty crops versus the primary crops is just nonsense from a portfolio theory. You fundamentally should try to build a portfolio that reflects something that approximates the valuation of the different crops in the United States, and that's what we're doing. The reason though that we will do some specialty crops and with the transaction we have just announced, we are probably underweighted to specialty today. The reason that we will do some specialty is that the specialty crops do fundamentally trade on a different cycle than the commodity crops. They have different timing with regards to their highs and lows than corn, soybeans and wheat. We believe that by blending in some specialty crops into our portfolio, and you should expect us to do more of this in the near future, that what will happen is you will increase the overall cap rate, and you will get some diversification benefit. The one thing to keep in mind though is that the especially crops do have some additional risks that the primary crops do not have. The most significant of which is that on the permanent crops, you're fundamentally locked in to a certain crop type for relatively long period of time. So if consumer demand changes, it's difficult to move away from that crop in a quick way like it is in an annual crop. The second problem though is, is that you're also susceptible to certain disease risks, which can take away a substantial portion of your principal value, if in fact those disease risks affect that given acreage or that given orchard. So even given that, we will gradually put more money into specialty crops. But I want to keep it in perspective that again we'll be in the neighborhood of 20% to 25%, specialty crops and 70% or 75% row crops. The other piece of our diversification is we think it's very, very important to do geographic and tenant diversification. At the end of the day, the crops are all grown outdoors, you're very weather dependent in the overall performance of the ag economy, and so we want to be spread out around the country. You can see that we are doing that pretty effectively. We're in I think 11 or 12 states at this point and expanding all the time. The other thing that we look at, as we develop the portfolio is irrigation water risk is a substantial challenge in many parts of the United States agriculture. We today do not own, for example, anything in California. California is a very important growing region for some of the specialty crops, but we are frankly thankful at this point, we do not have any ownership in California, because every single farm in California, no matter what anybody tells you, has got either a political risk on the water or actual existence of the water risk and the scarcity risk. I mean we all read the papers, as it relates to water risk in California. And then the final thing that we really focus on in our portfolio is to manage what we call the higher and better used opportunities for our farms. That can be anything, from real estate development to mineral development, to solar or winded power developments. With that, I'll move to the wind, to the fourth item. I'll actually skip over the third for a minute, and just discuss quickly the solar projects. We've done two green energy projects on our farms to date. We've had a wind lease, which we signed in October. The key thing about these transactions is what they do is they significantly enhance the rental rate on a certain percentage of acres on a farm. Some of you may have questions about this later, but the key facts on this were that we added a farm that's approximately 1,800 acres. We were renting 28 acres of that 1,800 to a wind power company. And what we were able to accomplish was on those 28 acres, which used to make around $7,700 in acre for total for us, we were able to move the ramp to around $72,000 dollars an acre. So a 9x, 9.5x increase in the rental revenue on those acres. What that does farm-wide for us is it will move the cap rate on a farm like that, which was making us around 5.2%, 5.25% as a farm, up to something in the neighborhood of 6%, which is a very significant ramp bump. So when appropriate, we are very attracted to these opportunities to do green energy projects on our farms. Another one that we have done is a solar farm. We've done a solar farm again in October. In this case, we'll end up using around somewhere between 60 and almost 200 acres could end up in the solar project, depending on how it's developed. Again, you're moving rent of this land from something in the neighborhood of $200 an acre to a $1,000 an acre, if it becomes part of the solar farm. That moves the cap rate on that farm from something like a 5 cap up to a 7 cap, if we in fact do all 200 acres. So these are very, very powerful value creators for us. We own enough land around the country that I think we should expect to see more of this. When we acquire these farms though, we do not overpay for these farms. We try to buy the farms based purely on ag value, and then take these upside opportunities, if we can and if we they present themselves. Moving on to land value update, and I will refer to a couple of pages again in the presentation here. I will be referring to Pages 19, 21, 22 and 23. There has been a lot of newspaper articles about difficulty in the farm economy, difficulty in the land values. We are not seeing significant declines in land values anywhere in the country. The broadest data collection effort on this question is done by the USDA, and that's information on Page 21, if you're following along. The USDA surveys land values across the country once a year. They do it in June and they publish the results in August. And what you would discover is that that overall nationwide survey said that farmland values went up 2.4% from 2014 to 2015. If you look at the states we own farmland in, you would see a range, in Arkansas it was up 7%, which is the strongest state, to a decline of about 0.3% -- I'm sorry, a 1% decline in Kansas, where we own a small amount of property, it was the weakest performer in the states that we own in. If you looked at sort of summary of headlines, you would never think that farmland values continually to go up gradually between '14 and '15. So what we are actually seeing in the market is a story that is similar to what the USDA data says. We have seen some sales recently set new records in the Corn Belt. It's frankly a little surprising and to watch as well, given what's going on with commodity prices, but it really reflects the strength of the balance sheet and the long-term financial performance of the ag producers that these land values continue to go up in corn and soybean growing regions of the company. We've also though seen occasionally a sale that it was a no sale or a sale that sold for less than you might have expected it to a few years ago. And so it's really what's setting up here is a situation in which I think the general market trend is still back to slight up or maybe slightly down. But if you track a lot of transactions, which we do, there is an occasional sale now that becomes a bargain or a buying opportunity and we of course try to pounce on those, when the opportunity presents itself. It's important though, not to get too focused on the annual farmland value question and to stay focused on the long-term trends. And this is the best presentation that we have of this is to look at Page 19 of our standard presentation, which fundamentally looks at the value, the creation that comes from farmland. So between 2003 and 2014 Farmland had a total annual return, meaning appreciation and current yield of approximately 16.4%. That is higher than all other real estate property types higher than timber, higher than the S&P 500, higher than gold. This asset is incredibly stable and incredibly positive returns over long periods of time. The fundamental reason for that is two-fold. Because of the current yield component of something like 4% or 5% on average, you very seldom have a negative year. In fact, in that timeframe there were no negative return years for farmland, while there were negative return years for almost every other asset class. The second thing though that's important is at the end of the day this is all about that global food demand story, and it is very, very unlikely that global food demand declines. It doesn't happen very often. It takes literally things like world wars or worldwide pandemics to cause global food demand to go down. So the asset class reflects that long-term global food demand increase. And our key thesis is now in the face of land scarcity, a higher and higher percentage of those returns are going to accrue to the landowner. The only other thing I want to mention here is people often ask me about it, is why isn't this the 1980s all over again. And I won't take you through this line-by-line, but if you would like at Pages 22 and 23 of our standard presentation, you would see the key things that suggest the 1980s are not going to revisit themselves in this cycle. And the two points that I will make is, number one, we just do not have the worldwide crop surpluses that we had in the late 70s and early 1980s that set up the land value decline and the commodity price declines in that era. If you look in a historical context, grain prices today are still relatively high in a historical context. They may not seem high compared to the high points of just a couple of years ago, but they really are pretty solid pricing. The second thing that I would point out is that the farmer balance sheets are much, much stronger now than they were in the 1980s. In our presentation go through a lot of USDA data, you can look at it, if you will. But the key thing is that the farmer balance sheet today is around 13% debt to assets. It was in the 20s in the 1980s. So you just have not had the sector lever up, which is one reason you're continuing to see very strong land prices, even though operating returns may have been hurt a little bit in recent years. And now, finally, I'll turn to this recent Illinois transaction, so just the facts to start, its 22,300 acres in East-Central Illinois. Those of you who know Illinois, this is about an hour south of Champagne Illinois, and we will pick up around 19 new tenants on those farms. After this transaction, we will be largest and certainly one of the largest, it's a hard statistic for us to actually verify, but probably we're the largest, and if not the largest, one of the largest private land owners in the entire Midwest. When we look at this sort of transaction, what we have acquired here is really the Park Avenue of U.S. farmland. This is some of the very best farmland in the world. We already owned quite a few acres on the west side of the state. I think its 7,000 or 8,000 acres on the west side of the state. So when you think about what will happen to the value of our company and the value of our stock, when we see even the slightest recovery in commodity prices and farmer operating performance, we are very, very strongly levered to how our valuations skyrocket fundamentally when that occurs. We will sign up most of the tenants -- that we hope to sign up most of the tenants who are currently on these farms and keep them in place. It's a very good set of tenants and we're happy to have them join us through this transaction. The key financial terms of the transaction were $50 million in cash, again $197 million total purchase price. $30 million of stock or OP units, which is valued in the transaction at $11.50 a share. A $117 million of preferred equity will be issued. That preferred equity will be outstanding for 10 years. It will pay up 3% dividend. And we will have the ability at the end of the tenure period to redeem it, either for cash or for operating partnership units at our option. We expect the basic rental revenue from this transaction to be around $6 million. That is before you include additional funds we may be able to gain from additional purchasing power for our tenants nation-wide as well as the ability to market some of the grain that comes from these farms. We think when it's all said and done, we maybe able to push cap rates into the low-4% on this transaction. Given the financing structure that we have in place, this transaction is very accretive. The final thing that this transaction allows us to do is it will allow us to increase our additional purchases by about $100 million. We will spend that $100 million in areas that provide diversification away from traditional row crop in the Midwest. So it will either be other regions or equally likely specialty crops. So when we look at this transaction, we think it is truly transformative for our company. It gives us a significant increase in scale, significant increase in revenue and an ability to get materially higher diversification, while at the same time capturing some of the very best productive assets that play into key theme of global food demand and land scarcity. So with that, I'll stop and turn it over to you, Luca, for some comment specifically about the financials.