Steven Tomsic
Analyst · MoffettNathanson
Thanks, Lachlan, and good afternoon. Despite the broader macroeconomic factors affecting our businesses, as Lachlan just highlighted, our first fiscal year as a stand-alone public company demonstrates that we are delivering on the strategies that we outlined at the time of the spin and that truly differentiate Fox. Let me now take you through our financial results for the fiscal year as well as the fourth quarter. I'll also take a few minutes to review the key investments we've made since the spin, before concluding with some financial markets for the months ahead. Our full year results saw total revenues increased 8% to $12.3 billion. This revenue growth was broad-based and led by affiliate revenue growth of 7% on the back of retransmission revenue increases at the television segment. We delivered this industry-leading affiliate revenue growth, despite an uptick in the rate of net subscriber declines. Using fiscal '19 as a base, we renewed 70% of total affiliate revenue in fiscal '20. Looking forward, the renewal profile in the immediate future is significantly lighter, with around 5% of total fiscal '20 affiliate revenue due for renewal in each of fiscal '21 and '22. Full year advertising revenues increased 5%, led by our broadcast of Super Bowl LIV. Partially offsetting this growth was the impact of COVID-19 in recent months. As we foreshadowed in May, the impact was most pronounced at our local television stations as well as FOX Sports due to the postponement of live events and at FOX Entertainment as new scripted programs were held back for our fall schedule. We also increased other revenues nearly 30%, primarily through the consolidation of Bento Box at the television segment beginning in August and the consolidation of Credible in our other segment beginning in October. Total full year adjusted EBITDA was $2.8 billion, an increase of 4% over the prior year. This growth was delivered despite the negative comparison to the accounting benefit from certain shared services and overhead costs being presented on a carve-out basis in the first 3 quarters of the prior year. Full year net income attributable to stockholders was $1 billion or $1.62 a share, while adjusted EPS was $2.48 versus $2.63 last year. Again, year-on-year comparison is impacted by the treatment of certain shared services and overhead costs in the prior year in accordance with SEC guidelines. Turning to the fourth quarter. Total company revenues were $2.4 billion, down 4% versus last year as COVID-19 related declines in our advertising revenues, overwhelmingly influenced by declines at our local television stations, and to a lesser extent, at the FOX Network, more than offset affiliate revenue growth of 8%. We indicated on our May call that we expected the COVID-related advertising headwinds across our business in the June quarter, excluding sports, to be in the $200 million to $240 million range, with the local market being down approximately 50%. We ended the quarter ahead of these expectations, with our advertising revenue down approximately $160 million across these businesses, with the local market down closer to 35% and FOX News advertising revenues actually posting a year-on-year gain. Adjusted EBITDA was $742 million, a 5% increase over the $709 million generated last year, led by higher contributions from the cable segment. This growth was partially offset in our Television segment due to the COVID-19-related advertising weakness. From a bottom line perspective, net income attributable to stockholders of $122 million or $0.20 per share was lower than the $0.73 per share in the prior year quarter, most notably due to the higher impairment and restructuring charges, including the negotiated settlement to exit our rights agreement with the USGA. Controlling for this and other noncore items in both years, adjusted EPS of $0.62 was consistent with the prior year quarter. Now turning to the operating performance of our segments for the fourth quarter, with Cable Networks' EBITDA of $674 million, was up 12% despite revenue being down 2%. The lower cable segment revenues were most notably due to a $22 million or 8% decline in our advertising revenues, including the impact of the postponement of live events at our sports networks and the absence of the FIFA Women's World Cup compared to the fourth quarter last year. Meanwhile, higher ratings and pricing helped to grow advertising revenues at Fox News Media in the quarter. Cable affiliate revenues increased 1%, supported by higher average rates, partially offset by a net decrease in pay television subscribers. Other revenues were down 31%, primarily due to the impact of COVID-19 on our sports business, partially offset by higher FOX Nation and radio revenues at FOX News Media. EBITDA at our cable segment increased 12% over the prior period, most notably reflecting lower sports programming rights amortization and production costs due to the postponement of live events and the absence of the FIFA Women's World Cup compared to the fourth quarter of last year. Our television segment reported EBITDA of $169 million, down from the $214 million reported in the prior year quarter. As revenue declines of 6% were partially offset by expenses that decreased nearly 3%. Television affiliate revenues grew 22%, consistent with the overall trajectory we outlined at our Investor Day in May of 2019. Television advertising revenues declined 29%, primarily from the impact of the pandemic on the local advertising market at the FOX Television Station and the postponement of live events at FOX Sports. Furthermore, in response to COVID-19, we deferred the planned spring premiers of certain scripted programs at FOX Entertainment into our fall schedule. These COVID-led declines more than offset the growth in affiliate revenues along with revenue growth from our new businesses, Tubi and Bento Box. The decrease in expenses primarily reflects lower programming amortization across FOX Sports and FOX Entertainment. From not airing sports events or first run programming, partially offset by the consolidation of Tubi and Bento Box. We expect the majority of the amortization-related savings to be timing related, with costs expected to shift into our fiscal '21 financials, but more on that in a moment. In aggregate, we estimated that COVID-19 created an EBITDA headwind of approximately $15 million in the quarter across our entire business. Finally, from a P&L perspective, the net EBITDA loss in our other segment amounted to $101 million, a slight improvement from the comparable quarter in the prior year. Meanwhile, our P&L tax rate ended the year at 27%. The strong overall P&L results generated free cash flow, which we calculate as net cash provided by operating activities, less cash invested in property, plant and equipment of over $850 million in the quarter and $2 billion for the year. This equates to over 70% EBITDA to free cash flow conversion in the year, demonstrating the robust free cash flow profile we outlined at our Investor Day. And from an overall balance sheet perspective, we ended the quarter with over $4.6 billion in cash and just under $8 billion in debt, which includes the $1.2 billion in 5- and 10-year senior notes that we raised this past quarter. In the 16 months since the spin, we've invested approximately $1.25 billion into our businesses through organic investments in our core operations, including the recent relaunch of our FOX Sports digital properties, and through strategic M&A. This latter group and our minority investments in acquisitions are worth highlighting given their inherent value to Fox that is not reflected in simple EBITDA multiple-based valuations. At our 2019 Investor Day, we announced a strategic partnership with The Stars Group. At the time, we invested approximately $240 million in the publicly-traded TSG and licensed our brand to the Fox Bet suite of pay-to-play and free-to-play games. As part of the partnership, we have an option over 50 -- of up to 50% of the equity in TSG's U.S. businesses. Subsequent to TSG's merger with Flutter and our incremental equity investment of approximately $100 million, we now own roughly 3% of parent company, Flutter, at a current market valuation of more than $600 million. We retain our up to 50% call option over TSG's U.S. businesses, but in addition, have also secured the right to buy an approximately 18.5% equity stake in FanDuel with an exercise period of 10 years. Last October, we completed the acquisition of a 67% stake in Credible Labs, an emerging fintech marketplace, which was a key part of the Fox business brand refresh and is now in the early stages of integrating alongside our national and local news assets. Since announcement, Credible -- since announcement, Credible's trailing 12-month revenue has grown from the approximately $40 million that it reported as a stand-alone public company to approximately $70 million through the June quarter, with this momentum supporting our confidence to continue to invest cross promotional resources in growing the platform. In April, we closed on the acquisition of Tubi, which we now report in our Television segment. Notwithstanding the challenges from COVID-19, we expect the boom in usage Lachlan outlined earlier, along with more effective monetization, to make Tubi a key source of revenue growth for many years to come. These recently acquired businesses, coupled with the renowned production capabilities in real estate of the Fox Studio lot and our tax asset, collectively represents significant pools of below-the-line value, hiding in plain sight at Fox Corporation. Before we open the call up to Q&A, let me provide a few markers to help you navigate the financial swings across our businesses in fiscal 2021. Beginning with a reminder of the events that create comparability issues between FY '20 and FY '21, where fiscal 2020 included the Super Bowl, 7-game World Series, the culmination of the FIFA Women's World Cup, along with Fox's Emmy Awards rotation. While fiscal 2021 will include what shapes to be a strong political year, the alternating NFC divisional playoff game and a full year consolidating our recent investments, including Tubi and Credible. Looking specifically at Q1, the combined effect of comparability in COVID is expected to reduce advertising revenue by roughly $250 million as compared to Q1 in fiscal 2020. While we will enjoy the benefits from political advertising, a greater volume of MLB regular season games and NASCAR races, along with the acquisition of Tubi, these will be more than offset by lower base advertising at our local stations, a reduced slate of fresh entertainment programming, fewer NFL and college football games in our Q1 schedule and the absence of the World Cup, Emmys and the MLB All-Star game. You will recall that we amortize the costs of our live sports programming when the games actually air on our networks. As such, the postponement of the sports calendar in the June quarter creates a shift of amortization, primarily across MLB and NASCAR rights, into the first quarter of our fiscal '21. We anticipate that this will increase our total sports operating expenses in the September quarter by approximately $70 million in the cable segment, broadly offsetting other savings. This all, of course, assumes that the COVID-driven disruptions to major sports are behind us and that we enjoy a full season of NFL, a conference-only 10-game college football season and the MLB season completes. These assumptions remain valid today, and we have no intention of using this call to run through the list of what is. We're in constant dialogue with our sports partners, and if circumstances change, we will take appropriate steps for the business. The same underlying fundamentals hold for FOX Entertainment, where we amortize the costs of our programming as the content is on our broadcast network. What we are now looking at is a 2021 broadcast season that includes a number of titles originally intended for our spring 2020 schedule shifted into the fall. Furthermore, we are optimistic that our key returning titles, including The Masked Singer, can be made available for mid-season returns. If this outlook holds, we could end up seeing a relatively full broadcast season. However, our programming amortization may not follow its normal cadence across quarters. Rather, from an amortization standpoint, our fiscal Q1 and Q2 are likely to be lighter than a normal year, with a heavier concentration of costs being absorbed in Q4. Again, pending the timing of a return to production. From a cash flow perspective, we are planning for a high level of capital expenditure in fiscal '21, supporting the final phases of the build-out of our technical broadcast facility in Arizona and the upgrade of some of our station facilities. We will also have higher interest payments related to our debt raised this past quarter. Underscoring our financial strength and confidence from a capital allocation perspective, we have today declare a semiannual $0.23 a share dividend payable on October 7, right in line with the pre-COVID dividend we declared in February. While the continued uncertainties make it challenging for us to estimate the future performance of our business, the company entered this crisis in a position of operating and financial strength. We will continue to manage our business and our balance sheet in a disciplined and conservative manner so that we emerge as well-positioned as possible to take advantage of the opportunities during the recovery. And with that, I'd like to turn the call back to Joe.