Earnings Labs

Forrester Research, Inc. (FORR)

Q4 2018 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 13, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon. Thank you for joining today's call. With me today are George Colony, Forrester's Chairman of the Board and CEO; Kelley Hippler, Forrester's Chief Sales Officer; and Mike Doyle, Forrester's Chief Financial Officer. George will open the call, Kelley will follow George to discuss sales, and Mike Doyle will discuss our financials. We'll then open the call to Q&A. A replay of this call will be available until March 13, 2019 and can be accessed by dialing 1-888-843-7419 or internationally by dialing 1-630-652-3042. Please reference the pass code 6316617 followed by the pound symbol or hash key. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that this call will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as expects, believes, anticipates, intends, plans, estimates or similar expressions are intended to identify these forward-looking statements. These statements are based on the company's current plans and expectations and involve risks and uncertainties that could cause future activities and results of operations to be materially different from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. Some of the important factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed in our reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company undertakes no obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. I will now hand the call over to Mr. George Colony.

George Colony

Management

Thank you very much for joining Forrester's 2018 Q4 Investor Call. Following my remarks, I will hand the call over to Kelley Hippler, Chief Sales Officer. Following Kelley, Mike Doyle, the company's CFO, will give a financial review of the quarter and the year. He will also give guidance for Q1 and full year 2019. Kelley, Mike and I will then take questions. The company's positive momentum from Q3 continued into the fourth quarter, enabling Forrester to exceed its booking planned for the quarter and for the year. In Q4, agreement value increased 10%, enrichment moved to 101%, revenue exceeded guidance and pro forma earnings per share was at the top end of guidance for the quarter. After a slow start in Q1, we accelerated quarter-by-quarter, resulting in a strong year for the company. Four factors accounted for the 2018 results: number one, our selling model, two, our focus on specific vertical markets, three, the launch of new products, and four, the continued strength of our Age of the Customer strategy. We began the transition to a new selling model of what we call the customer engagement model in 2017. As we talked about on previous calls, CEO bifurcates customers into premier and core, customer success managers drive engagement with clients which accelerates renewal rates and solution partners match client challenges with Forrester products to increase enrichment. The model was successfully completed in 2018. In 2018 we focused the company on 12 vertical markets. These industries are feeling the effects of the Age of the Customer most acutely. And these verticals are high technology, financial services, consumer, communications, government, healthcare, transport and logistics, travel and leisure, utilities, automotive, media and business services. Centering our research and sales average in these segments has increased our relevancy with clients and it's also…

Kelley Hippler

Management

Great. Thank you, George. Q4 capped off a good year for the Forrester sales organization. We completed the standup of our international teams into the customer engagement model or CEM, our go to market strategy. We continue to receive positive feedback from clients who transition into the model about the additional value they're receiving from Forrester. As a result, our agreement value has grown 10% percent versus prior year and our enrichment has increased over prior year as we're working to provide our clients with multi-product solutions to help them address their transformations like customer experience, digital transformation and Zero Trust. These metrics have been steadily increasing over the last year. Q4 also marked the eighth consecutive quarter of improved ramp rep productivity. As our customer success and solution partner teams continue to evolve, they are helping to free up additional time for our quota carriers to build relationships in other departments and other business unit. In addition, we saw a decrease in sales rep attrition and an increase in the percentage of sales reps getting to plan as our sellers adjust to the CEM. Based upon the favorable results in Q4, we are looking to increase our quota carrying headcount by low single digit. To ensure these continued results in 2019, in our premier sales team we will continue to leverage our team access offering which enables us to engage with a senior leader and their team to support key initiatives. We are building out our market development teams that align resources across sales, marketing product and research to develop solutions to the industries identified in our ideal client profile work. And we are continuing to position solutions versus products. Our customer success team is spearheading the operationalizing of a risk process across sales, customer success and our product organization, designed to create broader awareness of and the ability to respond to potential non-renewals in a more consistent way as we look to increase client retention rates. The new pricing and packaging that was introduced to our core organization in Q4 helped drive positive results within that segment. Concurrently, we continue to invest in our sales analytics, as well as training and enablement efforts. We have automated our territory planning to ensure that we establish balanced territories for our sellers, while improving our cost of sale and service. As many of us know, making changes to the sales model has risk associated with it. It is a testament to the sales leaders and leaders across Forrester that we have successfully executed on the CEM on time to the benefit to our clients and to the benefit to our financial. This has created a powerful growth platform as we look to 2019 and beyond. With that, I would like to turn the call over to Mike Doyle to review our Q4 and full year financial results.

Michael Doyle

Management

Thanks very much Kelley. I’ll now begin my review of Forrester’s financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year 2018, including a look at our financial results, the balance sheet at December 31, our fourth quarter metrics and the outlook for the first quarter and full year 2019. Please note that the income statement numbers I'm reporting are pro forma and exclude the following items, stock based compensation expense, amortization of intangibles, acquisition and integration costs and net gains and losses from investments. For 2018 we're utilizing an effective tax rate of 31% for pro forma purposes. For the fourth quarter, Forrester delivered revenue performance that exceeded the upper end of our guidance and earnings per share at the upper end of guidance. We experienced healthy revenue growth in both research services, advisory and events for the quarter.’ Research services revenue for the quarter was aided by a strong performance in our reprint business, while advisory is driven by strong consulting delivery. Additionally expenses and operating margin were in line with expectations. We continue to see consistent improvement in agreement value enrichment over the last five quarters with the changes we made to our selling model firmly taking hold. Forrester had a strong finish to a good year. As George mentioned, we were opportunistic over the last 12 months leveraging our balance sheet to make three strategic acquisitions. We believe these acquisitions will accelerate revenue and operating profit growth in a significant way over the next few years. Now let me turn to a more detailed review of our fourth quarter results. Forrester's fourth quarter revenue increased by 9% as reported to $98.6 million from $90.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2017 and by 10% on a currency adjusted basis. Fourth quarter research services revenue increased by a…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. [Operator Instructions] The first question in the queue comes from Timothy McHugh [William Blair & Company] Your line is open. Please proceed.

Timothy McHugh

Analyst

Yeah. Hi, thank you. First one I want to just ask, can you help us when we think about the 2019 guidance what are you assuming in terms of the pro forma revenue impact and margin impact from Sirius in the full year numbers?

Michael Doyle

Management

The way we're looking at it Tim, this is Mike, we're assuming approximately $100 million in revenue for SiriusDecisions and you figure probably on the low end, probably about year on, approximately $0.10 on EPS.

Timothy McHugh

Analyst

Okay. And that's pro forma EPS?

Michael Doyle

Management

Yes, it is Tim. We’ll be refining that with the - probably when we bring out our April call. But right now, we're still in the midst of digesting all what we have. And so again that will refine as we go.

Timothy McHugh

Analyst

So I guess part of why I am asking is, I'm trying to get a view of the outlook for kind of underlying margin trends here separate from the acquisition impact. In particular, I think you talked about starting to grow the sales force again. So can you talk about maybe on an underlying basis, how you're thinking about margins for 2019 and maybe the next couple of years here? In particular I guess in the context of starting to grow the sales force at a faster pace than we saw the last year?

Michael Doyle

Management

Yeah, I would say that our intent, Tim, is again to try and get, I would say, realistically if we - a point in margin this year as we think about this year with that accelerating as we go into 2020 as we get further leverage in the business. Couple things will happen. We will - as we go into 2020, we will be baking in really annualization of and also I think George hinted that revenue-synergy opportunities with SiriusDecisions that will help us leverage the business even more. So ideally as we go into 2020, we're accelerating top line growth, meaning we're starting to approach revenue numbers that are into the double digits and then expanding margins ideally another 150, 200 basis points in 2020. And I think that's doable even with growing the sales headcount because I think what Kelley has demonstrated for us is that the model of to get a 10% growth, you got to have a 10% increase in headcount. We don't need to do that. We're getting productivity. I'll let her give you more color, but I think we're getting productivity out of our existing model and we got to look to do the same with SiriusDecisions.

Kelley Hippler

Management

Sure. Thanks, Mike. So just to add to that, we've really been focusing on driving the rep productivity and that's where the beauty of the customer engagement model is that by having the CSM focusing on the day-to-day engagement, having a solutions partners who can help drive up our average transaction size on enrichment. Our sellers are able to cover more territory within the accounts they have, which allowed us to outpace our growth without having to keep the headcount up with that. And we think that we still have plenty of opportunity especially now with some of the new assets that George talked about today to continue to enhance productivity at a faster clip than we're growing sales heads.

Timothy McHugh

Analyst

Okay. That's helpful. And so I guess - let me just ask, relative to the agreement value growth of kind of 8% on a constant currency basis, it would imply - I guess or it seem like the organic assumption in there for 2019 is a touch less than that?

Michael Doyle

Management

Right.

Timothy McHugh

Analyst

Is there anything about the agreement value that makes you hesitant to extrapolate I guess that growth rate or why - when do we expect revenue to grow at that pace?

Michael Doyle

Management

Yeah, no your question is good one, and, Tim, and it's spot on. I think what we're seeing - the goodness in what we're seeing in is that with the solution partners that Kelley mentioned, is we are bundling more and more solutions when we sell to clients, which include advisory and consulting. So we are seeing that grow right now at faster rates than our syndicated business. So that's what impacted - so we're not having that - larger syndicated push into next year as we would like. So you're seeing that reflected in our revenue numbers. Clearly the intent is to continue to grow syndicated faster and a lot of that story comes into how do we sort of improve client retention? There's a number of things that Kelley is looking at to accelerate that and we've got a number of enhancements to existing products and some new products coming out that are more syndicated in nature. And we’re looking to do more there, as well as leverage cross sell on Sirius, which is a highly – more highly syndicated product than what we have right now.

Timothy McHugh

Analyst

Following up on that, can I ask so what would be the rough kind that of growth rate for agreement value for the syndicated type of products at this point that you're seeing?

Michael Doyle

Management

I would say net growth this past year were - and this is all in, it includes all, I would say, it's probably in the, I would say, 5% range plus or minus, Tim, if I bundle them all together.

Timothy McHugh

Analyst

Okay…

Michael Doyle

Management

And that’s, obviously – yeah, that's not where we aspire to be. I mean, you've heard George talk before, we expected our syndicated business should be growing double digits and that's what we're all working toward, that's the internal target.

Timothy McHugh

Analyst

Okay, great. Thank you.

Michael Doyle

Management

Thanks, Tim.

Operator

Operator

And our next question in the queue comes from Vincent Colicchio [Barrington Research] Your line is open. Please proceed.

Vincent Colicchio

Analyst

Hi. I'm curious, Kelley, are you seeing the best performance in the regions, which have the longest tenure of the new model in place, what's that relationship look like?

Kelley Hippler

Management

Sure. Great question, Vince. I will say one of the things that we were very pleased about this past year is that we saw a strong performance across all sales segments in all geographic regions. But absolutely the longer teams have been in the model, the better they seem to be doing, especially from an enrichment perspective. I think the CSM from an engagement perspective are able to come in pretty quickly, diagnose what it is the end users are looking for from Forrester and start to drive that engagement within a quarter or two. The part that does take a little bit longer is finding the additional growth opportunities within the accounts and that's where we are seeing stronger enrichment within the teams that have been in the model longer. The good news is at this point everybody will have been in it for at least a year going into 2019. That coupled with our increased focus on verticals I think will help all teams to continue to accelerate as we move forward.

Vincent Colicchio

Analyst

And Mike you may have said this, but as you model for this year for 2019, when do you expect - how much cross-selling do you expect to occur this year from the SiriusDecisions piece?

Michael Doyle

Management

I would say that this year the expectation is really de minimus, Vince. And the reason for that is that you know, their fiscal year ends March 31. So if you remember, when George and I spoke at the last call, George talked about letting them finish their year. And then I think as we began the process of working through and integrating the companies, we'll build out the plans to develop cross-sell because we think that's fertile ground for us and there's a tremendous amount of opportunity. So I think you will see bookings activity in the latter part of this year, probably won't translate into huge revenue numbers. That said, I think we'll see much more of that flow into the P&L in 2020.

George Colony

Management

Yes, setting us up for 2020 to do that. Although there will be sales incentives to do this, right?

Kelley Hippler

Management

Yes, absolutely. We've already launched some collaboration programs out into the field to help drive collaboration and then there are places where we'll look to be opportunistic, Vince, where SiriusDecisions may not have feet on the street today, but Forrester does. And those are all part of the planning that's under way right now as we get ready to kick off what will be a 9 month plan for our SiriusDecisions team.

Vincent Colicchio

Analyst

And George, the –to significantly move the real-time Customer Experience Cloud product forward, do you need to make other acquisitions there or will we see a significant improvement in the product outside of that?

George Colony

Management

I think, I'd say the answer is no, Vince. But there are definitely - we have about four or five targets that would be great to add but are not necessary to add. I think the primary effort for the year is to really - is to build up the digital side of the cloud and to the analytics engine to be fully trained. Remember, there's some machine learning and AI; there's no people in the picture here. So I'd say we have all the elements in place to make the cloud successful - have a successful launch for this year. Go forward, I mean if it does, we think it's going to do, I think again we have four or five other targets we will be looking at to acquire.

Vincent Colicchio

Analyst

Okay. That’s it from me. Nice quarter, guys.

George Colony

Management

Thanks, Vince.

Kelley Hippler

Management

Thank you, Vince.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. There are no further questions at this time. So I'll turn the call back over to Mike Doyle for any closing remarks.

Michael Doyle

Management

Great. Thanks very much. We look forward to seeing a number of folks out on the road now that we've got the acquisition behind us, we'll be more active on the IR front. So we plan to both be at conferences and be out meeting with investors. So I look forward to seeing you soon. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's teleconference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.