Earnings Labs

Forrester Research, Inc. (FORR)

Q4 2013 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 12, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon thank you for joining today’s call. With me today are, George Colony, Forrester’s Chairman of the Board and CEO; Michael Morhardt, Forrester’s Chief Sales Officer and Mike Doyle, Forrester’s Chief Financial Officer. George Colony will open the call. Michael Doyle will then follow to discuss our financials we will then be joined by Mike Morhardt and open the call for Q&A. Please note that the conference is being recorded. A replay of this call will be available until March 14, 2014 and it can be accessed by dialing 1-888-843-7419 or internationally 1-630-652-3042. Please reference the pass code 9233923. Before we begin, I’d like to remind you that this call will contain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Words such as expect, believe, anticipate, intend, plans, estimates, or similar expressions are intended to identify these forward-looking statements. These statements are based on the company’s current plans and expectations and involve risks and uncertainties that can cause future activities and results of operations to be materially different from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. Some of the important factors that could cause actual results to differ are discussed in our reports and filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The company undertakes no obligations to update publicly any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. I’ll now hand the call over to George Colony.

George Colony

Management

Good afternoon and thanks for joining Forrester’s Q4 and full year 2013 conference call. In my segment of the call I will outline the company’s plans for 2014. Following my remarks, Mike Doyle, Forrester’s CFO will give a financial review of the fourth quarter and full year 2013, Mike Morhardt, Chief Sales Officer will join to the question-and-answer session. In 2013 we strengthened Forrester’s foundation. The company reorganized creating one research organization and the professional product management group. The company introduced the new website making it easier for clients to find the consumer research. The playbook portfolio neared completion enabling clients to manage technology through a full life cycle. And finally the sales force continued its voyage to improve skills talent and market knowledge. The 2013 changes have established solid ground that can support the plan for 2014 and subsequent years. I am going to spend time this afternoon on four topics. One, the shift in our strategy towards the age of the customer. Two; the build out of our project consulting group. Three; play books. And finally four, sales. And I want to start off with the go to market strategy shift. We are in a unique era what some refer to as the age of the customers. Because of the amount of information customers now have at their disposal the collected power of their social and the multitude of devices the use to engage with brands is clear that power has shifted to the customer. Just being customer focused which companies have been talked to us for many years is really no longer enough. Forrester’s clients need to be customer obsessed to compete and win in these times. And that means investing customer insights and matching their technology, marketing and customer experience strategies. Because of this power shift,…

Mike Doyle

Management

Thanks George. I will now begin my review of the financial performance for Forrester’s fourth quarter and full year results the balance sheet at December 31st, our fourth quarter metrics and the outlook for the first quarter and full year of 2014. Please note that the income statement numbers that I am reporting are pro forma and exclude the following. Amortization of intangibles, stock-based compensation expense reorganization cost, acquisition-related cost and net gains and losses from investments. Also, for 2013 we utilized an effective tax rate of 39% for pro forma purposes, the actual effective tax rate for the full was approximately 36%. For the fourth quarter and full year, Forrester met its revenue and exceeded its pro forma op margin and EPS guidance. Strong performance in our advisory services business drove revenue growth, while expenses remained in line with expectations. More importantly, about one year ago when I was reviewing where we stood after 2012, I indicated we had a lot of work ahead of us. I spoke about the adverse impact of the 2012 sales pivot and how it would take 12 to 18 months to rebuild the sales organization and gave guidance with caution for the full year of 2013. I am going to talk about the sales rebuild, which is showing real progress later in my comments. Relative to the full year 2013 guidance we gave back in February of last year, I am pleased to report we’re at the upper-end of that revenue guidance and exceeded the operating margin and EPS guidance we provided you back then. Given the busy year we had as a company with our new website, expansion of playbooks and the project consulting organization, as well as the headwinds we faced in Europe, it’s a very satisfying result. Bookings continue to…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions). And our first question is going to come from Timothy McHugh. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Timothy McHugh - William Blair

Analyst

Yes, thanks. First I guess you mentioned 5 of the 7 areas picked up sales I guess what didn’t and I guess and of the 5 that picked up any stronger than others I guess?

Mike Doyle

Management

Yes. So I’ll start with the positive Tim instead of the negative so we kind of keep it on a up note and then we’ll cover the ones that splitted it. So we have three groups within North America, all of which did extremely well both our new business teams as well as our East Division and our West Division, both pretty much have been sort of consistently sort of paving the way growing and growing. Then Asia-Pacific which has been strong pretty much all year along. They’ve really had a really great year and then our events business okay which picked really well. I would say Europe had an up and down year. We had a good third quarter and then the fourth quarter slipped backwards. So we’re still fighting some headwinds there. And then to a lesser degree but some of our larger premier accounts we had some activity in the fourth quarter that caused us to slip a little below what our expectations were. So I would say some of our larger accounts in Europe are the drag right now and then the other five that I mentioned are had some nice momentum in the back half and some of those teams have had good momentum throughout the year.

Timothy McHugh - William Blair

Analyst

And then most of your bookings growth is coming on the marketing side.

Mike Doyle

Management

It’s kind of an interesting split then. So I would say that we highlighted for example on our FOB business that yes, M&S versus BT that’s the case I think in general that’s the trend but what’s interesting is if you look at consulting I think we highlighted more on the revenue front but some pretty healthy activity on the BT side on consulting. So it’s kind of a mix story still more sharing towards overall M&S is stronger and is rebounding at faster rates than our BT business and across the board. But within that we are seeing some interesting times of positive things in the BT business as well.

George Colony

Management

Tim, this is George. If you look at the tech management space, our expectation is that as Forrester focuses more closely in tech management on business technology it’s a technology serve between customers that we will get turn on our business in ‘14 and ‘15 as I said in my remarks CIOs and even CEOs and they lean in when you start to talk in those terms yield IT infrastructure business I mean that’s very critical with these companies but that’s an area of cost pressure and cost reduction the area of BT is one of cost expansion really. So I think it’s going to help in turnaround in ‘14 and ‘15.

Timothy McHugh - William Blair

Analyst

Okay. That’s great. On the consulting given I guess order agreement value finished and then expansion on the consultant base. Is it fair that we should expect this year consulting to be growing faster? And I guess what’s -- I’m assuming you have embedded this in the margin, but just to understand the dynamics. What are the margin impact differences I guess as you see faster growth on the margin or on the consulting side?

Mike Doyle

Management

Yes I think, first I do think consulting is going to grow faster I think in this term. I think that in 2015 you are going to see that sort of Y cost shift again. The analogy George like use internally is that consulting is about six months to a year ahead of what we are doing on product research side. So, we ended the year really well and I expect that that’s going to continue. And it certainly has impacted our margins in ‘14 because we are continuing to hire aggressively consulting. So, we’re going to in aggregate the headcount is going to almost double down again in consultants by the time we end the year. So, you get people ramping up producing sort of towards the tail-end so it does impact our margins in the near-term. I think and our view is in the long run this is going to be a much, much more efficient model. We are opening up our research teams want to do little bit more advisory should they choose to do that, but more importantly build out their research content. So, and provide more support to sales. So, our view is that we are going to get much better top-line growth. I think we are not walking away from our 70% target on syndicated. I think in the near-term you are probably going to see a shift a bit towards the consulting in advisory side in ‘14, but then I think it’s going to turn itself back around in ‘15 and will start marching back towards that 70%, but in aggregate with the overall top-line growing in ‘15 and beyond at double-digit rates, healthy growth in consulting and in research.

Timothy McHugh - William Blair

Analyst

Is the target still to get to agreement value growth in the double-digits by the end of the year, I guess or given where you’re starting in terms of new bookings, is that a stretch?

George Colony

Management

Look, our targets are still that by the end of the year we're going to see that we're going to move to high single-digit to double-digit growth in the back part of the year. Yes, that's still the game plan. The theory is we're going to start cautiously and slow and momentum will build. As I referenced in my comments and I'm not sure it was clear enough, we got to our planned sales headcount, but it was much more back-end loaded than we had originally hope. So, those folks are still ramping in the first part of the year. So, I think where Mike is going to start getting some rhythm and I'll let him comment briefly if you want, but when he is going to start getting rhythm on that group that came in the back part of this past year in ‘13, it's going to be in the back half of ‘14.

Timothy McHugh - William Blair

Analyst

Okay. And then last question, Mike just what did you assume in terms of share buybacks in the guidance. Is there any, is the share count flat, did you assume more buybacks in this?

Mike Doyle

Management

We assume that we're going to see a slight downtick in overall share count. So, what I use the share count that I quoted was the sort of the fully diluted share count of 20.3, the diluted weighted average share is 20.3 I expect that that's going to drift below 20 before the end of the year. The share count George has used was just the basic weighted to $19.7 million. But either way, we're going to march our way down, not dramatically, but we expect that it's going to continue to come down a bit.

Timothy McHugh - William Blair

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Mike Doyle

Management

You're welcome.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And then our next question is going to come from Vincent Colicchio from Noble Financial. Please go ahead, your line is open.

Vincent Colicchio - Noble Financial

Analyst

Yes, I'm curious Mike how large is Europe now to the company? And any sense in the fourth quarter you had some weakness with few large customers. I'm wondering so far in the New York you're seeing the environment improve at all, but there are only tech companies, some tech companies saying they are seeing a better environment?

Michael Morhardt

Analyst

I'll give you an approximate on Europe for us Vince and then we can -- I’ll let Mike probably talk to the environment. But Europe all in, is just going to be a little north of 21% or 22% of our total sort of bookings and revenue numbers. So, it’s still a big piece of our world. And so, as a result, we are actively looking to reenergize that in a big time way. And there is lot of work there. I’ll let Mike talk about where he wants to go, where he is headed with it. But it’s still a good size of piece of business for us. I still think there is a tremendous amount of opportunity for us in Europe. Some of the issues we have are around making I think George has said that on previous calls, it’s an execution driven piece, some economic headwind that’s it, there is opportunity there. But I’ll let Mike maybe go a little deeper on how he is doing the prospects there in larger accounts.

Mike Doyle

Management

Sure. So Vince I think we’ve mentioned on previous calls we had a different type of go-to-market strategy for the sales organization and specifically in Europe we were aligned by market segment, by size of client and necessarily regionally focused. And so, in 2013 we made a ton of progress of aligning the organization on a regional basis. In the last couple of months, we've hired leaders to lead our German team, our French team. And we have all the leaderships in place on a regional basis. And at same time, one of the other missing characteristics of driving business in Europe was nearly strong alignment with our research and consulting peers. And over the course of the last four, five months we've been to able to -- been much more aligned replacing our bets both in the sales perspective, but also from the research and consulting perspective. So, I think it’s set up the right way. And we’re starting to see some nice signals from certain parts that have already been set up that way. You had asked a question about some of our larger accounts and some of the softness there. That softness is also in Europe. And so, well Mike mentioned we have kind of a couple of different issues, we have a global accounts organization that has a lot of European accounts and that’s where we saw the softness. And so, we’re focused on implementing the plan around regional sales model that’s in place now. We’re focused on making sure that we have in our research and consulting peers right alongside that in place and going to be in place as we grow the consulting organization. And that was the question of just execution as we go into 2014. I am not expecting good things out of the Europe, there is -- the microeconomic issues I don’t think are standing in our way, there is plenty of opportunity there.

Vincent Colicchio - Noble Financial

Analyst

Thanks for that color. And Mike or George, how long will be transition away from the tech navigator product continued impact the company in a meaningful way?

George Colony

Management

Yes, I don’t think it’s going to have a meaningful impact in 2014. I think we’ve said it taking our [paying] this past year and I think that the features of that product that we like are going to be incorporate into our business for such product and frankly we were feeling pretty good about the data we’re investing a lot in terms of data headcount so we feel pretty good about that. So, it’s not going to be a drag on 2014 like it was 2013.

Vincent Colicchio - Noble Financial

Analyst

Okay. Thanks guys.

George Colony

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And then our next question is going to come from Bill Sutherland from Emerging Growth. Go ahead your line is open.

Bill Sutherland - Emerging Growth

Analyst

Thanks. So, I just want to get clear on the consultant headcount so I couldn’t quite here George’s tally as of year-end, what was that number?

George Colony

Management

So within -- if we look at it though within -- and they show in our research number, but within that we ended ‘13 with 60 consultants, we plan to end ‘14 with about 114 and then sort of George talked about, we had a small group of core consultants in there. I think George talked about the adds that were coming on top of that group we already had. So I think this year we added I think 21 or something George to that group that’s the new hired group. So, those are sort of some of the numbers go, but when you get -- we plan to end the year about 114 in our consulting organization.

Bill Sutherland - Emerging Growth

Analyst

So when you -- I should think of those as separate and apart, I mean it’s unrelated to anybody doing research in that group of all 60 as of the end of the year?

Mike Doyle

Management

Correct.

Bill Sutherland - Emerging Growth

Analyst

Okay. I had the number and this is probably wrong at just 21 at the end of September.

Mike Doyle

Management

21 and I think we probably created that confusion on the last call but 21 was what we had targeted to add to the existing group that we had, Bill…

Bill Sutherland - Emerging Growth

Analyst

Okay.

Mike Doyle

Management

During the course of 2013, and I apologize for that confusion. So the new group that we have been added in and then there is -- so I think that was what created the confusion.The numbers we gave you today are better.

Bill Sutherland - Emerging Growth

Analyst

And so this can pretty ratable this March from 60 to you said 114.

Mike Doyle

Management

It is although the hope is that we plan to get them in sooner rather than later. The idea and the target is that we’ve got our research teams out of project consulting by the end of 2014. That’s the target that we are setting. So if you assume some ramp, the hope is that by the time we end the year, every research analyst that’s here in Forrester isn’t worried about project consulting anymore, they are focused on advisory and writing research, taking events, working with the sales teams. So that’s our target Bill.

Bill Sutherland - Emerging Growth

Analyst

So, it’s going to be kind of a noisy number in terms of revenue per consultant and that kind of thing until we get okay?

Mike Doyle

Management

It will be, we’ll attempt to -- when we come out with first quarter, I think we are going to attempt to look at and breakout more by ramped consultants, so you can get some sense as to the how ramps consultants are producing just what they are trying to do, we are just giving ramp sales headcount, we’ll attempt to do the same on the consulting side. So you can get little bit more color in terms how we are progressing. And as George mentioned, the early performance has been really good, we have been really happy.

Bill Sutherland - Emerging Growth

Analyst

Any check, any plans for events in terms of either numbers or size planned?

Mike Doyle

Management

No. Essentially the event business, we are sticking with the plots we did, we took last year, which is we scale back the number of events but we are going with sort of the few of the bigger, here is no dramatic change in numbers of events between ‘13 and ‘14. I think the bigger task is, I think George’s challenge was really more to build out the content and making these events just even a richer experience for our clients. So, we are staying pretty focused on numbers of events and trying to build on in size with that sort of that foundation. That means that not all rolls we get events but the primary, the larger roles will get very large events as we forward in times. The example the experience forum at New York City, I think that’s 1,400 -- a lot of people there and success on the West Coast repeated event, and success in Europe repeat of that event. So you’re probably looking at five to seven core roles that we get large, that we’ll have large events and getting over time year to year.

Bill Sutherland - Emerging Growth

Analyst

Okay. Now I just want to also understand in terms of Mike's build out, the salesforce build out. So you in terms of just total sales staff, it was a 5% year-over-year with that. So, I didn’t know that was the adjusted year-end target or whether the quota bearing portion of that was at the greater percentage?

George Colony

Management

In ‘13 the quota bearing was up, I want to say 9% in 2013 over 2012 and…

Bill Sutherland - Emerging Growth

Analyst

Okay.

George Colony

Management

Yes. And our target for 2014 is net is going to be up 6%, but we -- so the 6% and again I'll let Mike give more color, if our years continuing to move downward, we're getting good momentum that’s what changed quickly. Within that 6% though within ramp headcount, we expect that group to be up 9%. So that's sort of the ramping and the people came into the back half of the year or so. Net-net, these ramped headcount will be up about 9% in ‘14 is our target, similar to what posted past year.

Bill Sutherland - Emerging Growth

Analyst

Okay.

Mike Doyle

Management

Yes, Bill I’ll just add, so from an overall sales organization, this 5%, we try to keep our eyes on management sales support keeping those levels stable and focused on quota bearing headcount. Most of that quota bearing headcount came in the second half of the year in fact in Q4. As I’d mentioned on previous calls, we were building out kind of the muscle memory around recruiting and building territories in remote regions and that up to our goal of 12 new cities that we were looking to have coverage in. And so we're taking that into the first half of 2014. The engine is working, but we're keeping an eye, so we get into the first half to see what signals we along with Mike to determine whether we want to ramp that up.

Bill Sutherland - Emerging Growth

Analyst

Okay. And then lastly just if you can give us a little more color on that large account of [SAC] that you saw on the fourth quarter just help us understand if that was very client specific or kind of a momentary pause, as far as you can see?

George Colony

Management

Well, there is a couple that had to do with reorganizations, which are never fun. And as the client goes through that the organization we’re in the process of now calling on different buyers. I’d like to thank those revenues are stable and we’ll bring those clients back in Q1 and that's the plan. You never want to be surprised in Q4 and one of your larger clients, when it goes reorganization, but we had two or three of those that surprised us. And so we put some plans in place to not have that happen again. And they were based in Europe primarily and we’re after those try to put them back in Q1.

Bill Sutherland - Emerging Growth

Analyst

Okay. Thanks guys appreciate it.

George Colony

Management

Thanks Bill.

Mike Doyle

Management

Thank you Bill.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And we have no further questions at this time. So I’d like to turn the call back over to Mike Doyle.

Mike Doyle

Management

Great, thanks everyone. And thanks for joining us for the call. We look forward to seeing folks out on the road over the course of the next quarter or two and keeping you rest of the progress that we've made. And we’ll be talking to you soon. Thank you.