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Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV)

Q1 2015 Earnings Call· Wed, May 13, 2015

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. My name is Melissa and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Franco-Nevada Corporation First Quarter Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Mr. Stefan Axell, you may begin your conference.

Stefan Axell

Analyst

Thank you, Melissa. Good morning everyone. We are pleased that you have joined us today for the Franco-Nevada first quarter 2015 results conference call. Accompanying our call today is the presentation which is available on our website at franco-nevada.com, where you’ll also find our full financial results. Sandip Rana, CFO of Franco-Nevada will provide a brief review of our results. This will be followed by Q&A period where our entire management team including representatives from Australia, Barbados and the U.S. are available here in our Toronto boardroom to answer any questions that you may have. Before we begin formal remarks, we would like to remind participants that some of today’s commentary may contain forward-looking information and refer you to detailed cautionary note on Slide 2 of our presentation. I’ll now turn it over to Sandip Rana, CFO of Franco-Nevada.

Sandip Rana

Analyst

Thank you, Stefan. Good morning everyone. As you all have seen from the press release issued yesterday, our overall royalty and stream operations continues to perform well, with Q1 2015 results benefitting from the additional of Candelaria. Operationally and our financial results for the quarter were in line with our expectations. Turning to Slide 3, you’ll see two charts on the page. The first chart highlights the average gold price for each of the last five quarters. For Q1 2015 the gold price averaged 1,219 per ounce, a 5.8% decrease from a year ago Q1 2014, when the gold price averaged 1,294 per ounce. But it is slightly higher than the average gold price for Q4 2014 of $1,200 per ounce. During the quarter, the gold price traded within a range of 1,147 per ounce and 1,297 per ounce, somewhat stabilizing. Although the average price for the quarter was slightly higher than fourth quarter 2014, it has been an overall downward trend in the gold price for the last 24 months. With respect to platinum prices they were lower in the quarter when compared to prior year, with the average price for the quarter down approximately 16% from Q1 2014. Palladium prices were slightly higher quarter-over-quarter. The second chart on Slide 3 highlights the gold equivalent ounces received by the company over the last five quarters. Gold equivalent ounces earned increase 29.2% year-over-year to 851,000 GEOs compared to 658,000 GEOs in Q1 2014. Of the 851,000 GEOs, 88% were from gold assets. Slide 4 provides the waterfall chart showing a source of the movement of GEOs from Q1 2014 to Q1 2015. The largest source of the increase is the Candelaria addition where Franco-Nevada purchased the gold and silver stream in late 2014 from Lundin Mining. For the quarter, the…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question is from the line of Greg Barnes with TD Securities. Your line is open.

Greg Barnes

Analyst · Greg Barnes with TD Securities. Your line is open

Thank you. Sandip or Paul or whoever is there, the discussions with First Quantum on this streaming arrangement on Cobre Panama are dragging on and dragging on. Where are we now? What is the holdup? Is it the Koreans? Is it small details now? When is this going to conclude?

David Harquail

Analyst · Greg Barnes with TD Securities. Your line is open

It’s David Harquail here. First Quantum's having their annual meeting today. So, they're actually in town. So you could imagine it’s going to be some opportunities for some progress there. I think everything has still been very constructive, I think the challenges of operating company such as First Quantum, is they have a lot of challenges to operate their focus is on different things. I think we have been, I think Paul can confirm as we have been having constructive term sheets going back and forth. I guess one as at one side would stop marking up term sheets, we will be done. I think we are very close, I think the face-to-face that will happen this week will be constructive. I'm still very relaxed about the process. I think both sides because they are substantial sum of money we just want to get it right. I don’t know if you want to add anything to that Paul?

Greg Barnes

Analyst · Greg Barnes with TD Securities. Your line is open

So, if you're exchanging term sheets, is the character of the deal changing?

David Harquail

Analyst · Greg Barnes with TD Securities. Your line is open

No, again we’ve limited to just the two issues that we reflected- the reporting arrangements which I think were concluded on and it’s really just on and financial security.

Paul Brink

Analyst · Greg Barnes with TD Securities. Your line is open

It’s document rather than term sheets. Documents rather than term sheets. Just documents in terms of amendments regarding the two issues that we’ve highlighted.

Greg Barnes

Analyst · Greg Barnes with TD Securities. Your line is open

Now, also there seems to be some suggestions that the Korean partners have to sign off on this and I know they're very bureaucratic and it takes a long time for them to do anything. Is that the case?

Paul Brink

Analyst · Greg Barnes with TD Securities. Your line is open

It depends on what the ultimate amendments are Greg, but it’s not clear if they are material enough whether they need [indiscernible].

Greg Barnes

Analyst · Greg Barnes with TD Securities. Your line is open

Okay. And just moving on to another topic. You've kind of implied that oil and gas is something or an area that you're very interested in right now, potentially adding more royalties. Are you progressing things on that front? How would you fund that if you do?

Geoff Waterman

Analyst · Greg Barnes with TD Securities. Your line is open

Again what we’re trying to do is always keep our alignment to be majority or gold focused as a royalty company. So, we will always look at what is the appropriate size within our portfolio. There have been a number of assets already marketed in Western Canada and there is other ones in the market right now. We have a separate business development [gene] that just focuses on those. So I think one of the great strengths we have with our company is that we’re the most diversified by commodity and we really are looking along all the commodity fronts and I am optimistic that something will come along in oil and gas that is as competitive as the deals that our mining team is putting to the table in terms of transactions going forward. So, I can't forecast when we’re going to do something or what the next deal will be. I just know we have issues in the line for -- in both pools and whichever is the best nimble will be the next one that we land.

Greg Barnes

Analyst · Greg Barnes with TD Securities. Your line is open

David, would you do a debt issue to fund an oil and gas transaction?

David Harquail

Analyst · Greg Barnes with TD Securities. Your line is open

Well remember we’re sitting on a lot of liquidity right now. So I think we can actually fund the deal without having to raise any additional liquidity. Remember we want to do a deal that’s proportionate with our overall portfolio, we want to maintain the 80% precious metal focus. So I think you can kind of back out with the relative sizing of what we'd be comfortable in the oil and gas base. And so again we are focused on the long-term waiting for precious metal.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Cosmos Chiu with CIBC. Your line is open.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst · Cosmos Chiu with CIBC. Your line is open

Great. Thanks, David, Sandip, and team for hosting the call. First off, congratulations on getting added to the TSX 60 as of tonight. A few questions here, maybe following up on the oil and gas assets. Could you remind me in terms of your exposure to Alberta versus the other provinces? The reason why I ask, as we all know there's been a political regime change in Alberta. There's proposed royalty changes in the province. Certainly there's no direct impact I don't think to Franco-Nevada but have you looked at any indirect impacts that could happen to your oil and gas portfolio in that province?

David Harquail

Analyst · Cosmos Chiu with CIBC. Your line is open

Geoff Waterman who runs our oil and gas. Right now by far our biggest asset is Weyburn followed by Midale and they are nice, friendly, right of center Saskatchewan. But I'll let Geoff talked about more what assets we have in Alberta.

Geoff Waterman

Analyst · Cosmos Chiu with CIBC. Your line is open

With respect to our Alberta assets, as David said, most of our assets are located in Saskatchewan. And what we expect, or what could happen under this new government in Alberta is they talk about going back and reviewing the royalty structure and we saw that under Ed Stelmach few years ago and really the impact it have on us is in some of our bigger properties in Alberta the producers just slowed down the rate of drilling they did. It didn’t impact the current production levels. You go ahead and do royalty review, we'll see what happens but I would expect that it would have the same impact as the previous royalty review.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst · Cosmos Chiu with CIBC. Your line is open

And, Geoff or maybe David, certainly looking ahead, David, as you talked about, there is opportunities in terms of future royalty acquisitions in oil and gas. Does this kind of change how you look at -- you also mention Western Canada. Does this change how you look at Alberta as a potential province in terms of future royalty stream acquisitions?

Geoff Waterman

Analyst · Cosmos Chiu with CIBC. Your line is open

The underlying resources are good quality resource we’re going to look at it, most of our production is coming from Southeast Saskatchewan and it’s all weighted. Generally Alberta is more prone to gas especially with our assets. But it just comes back to the quality of the underlying resource and then we look at all the other factors that when we consider an acquisitions. So right now cost was just some of that, what we're getting from Alberta right now is probably immaterial for an overall revenues and I think in terms of - I like these developments to come out in the market before we buy anything new because I think we just factor that into the pricing or whatever we buy. And I think the biggest impact when we look at something is what’s the likely capital, we spent on that property because that’s what’s major determinant for the value of the royalty. So, I think to any extent the bigger risk now in terms of more taxes in Alberta we’ll be factoring less capital spend on those properties.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst · Cosmos Chiu with CIBC. Your line is open

Maybe switching gears a little bit, Sandip, or maybe David as well, on slide number eight you mentioned the adjusted EBITDA margin. It's still quite high at 76.3% but it's coming down. It's kind of like a double-edged sword from that perspective. As you have more stream royalties coming in, that cost is going to go up but it's also going to give you more leverage. But at the same time, higher margin will give you a bit more safety in terms of a volatile market. Is there a number that you're targeting in terms of EBITDA margin? Certainly it was 80% before. Now it's closer to 75%. Internally speaking, is there a number that you would want to target?

Geoff Waterman

Analyst · Cosmos Chiu with CIBC. Your line is open

Obviously we would like it as high as possible but you are correct. As you receive more stream ounces it's going to continue to decrease, I mean in terms of our margin component if you want to monitor and is regime the corporate administration cost, so we wanted to be sure that the margin is increasing, it’s decreasing because we're getting more stream ounces or paying more taxes because we’re getting more revenues from our Nevada assets but not because corporate administration cost or increasing. So obviously we would like this as high as possible, but as you said, the more ounces is the more leverage that we do have.

Cosmos Chiu

Analyst · Cosmos Chiu with CIBC. Your line is open

Maybe one last question from me. Certainly I would say 2015, a new royalty that's coming on is the Rubicon royalty. I remember when at first, when you first acquired that royalty, the royalty is on the part of the deposit that's under the lake. I just want to confirm in terms of when it comes into production later on this year in terms of Rubicon, how does it work? Does Franco-Nevada get the royalty right away? I just need a reminder in terms of the part of the deposit.

Paul Brink

Analyst · Cosmos Chiu with CIBC. Your line is open

Paul here, obviously, the current reserve and just about all the resources underneath the lake Cosmos, so any meaningful production is all going to be on our royalty land. There are some targets that are underneath the land, but they are longer term.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. Mr. Axell, I’ll turn the call back over to you.

David Harquail

Analyst · Greg Barnes with TD Securities. Your line is open

Thank you, operator. It’s David Harquail here and I guess the key takeaway in our first quarter we only talk to you just six weeks ago, so really there is not a lot to add. But I am just very pleased how well the mineral assets are performing. I'm pleased with how Candelaria is performing and we’re expecting our oil and gas assets to do better over the balance of the year. Also we we’ve had some good news in our smaller assets. We've talked about it in our press release, but we didn’t feel we use this call to elaborate on them. Our next mark on your calendars, we'll be putting out our second quarter results after the market close in August 10th and we’ll have the corresponding conference call on the morning of August 11th. Thank you for your interest in Franco-Nevada. Good bye.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.