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Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A.B. de C.V. (FMX)

Q1 2013 Earnings Call· Wed, Apr 24, 2013

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and welcome, everyone, to FEMSA's First Quarter 2013 Earnings Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] During this conference call, management may discuss certain forward-looking statements concerning FEMSA's future performance, and should be considered as good faith estimates made by the company. These forward-looking statements reflect management's expectations and are based upon currently available data. Actual results are subject to future events and uncertainties, which can materially impact the company's actual performance. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Javier Astaburuaga, FEMSA's CFO. Please go ahead, sir.

Juan F. Fonseca

Analyst

Good afternoon, everyone. This is actually Juan Fonseca, just for a second. Welcome to our first quarter results conference call. Javier is on the call, and I will turn it over to him in just a moment, but we wanted to let you know that he is traveling and therefore, you may notice that while we're during the Q&A session, we're actually not in the same location. So I just wanted to give you the heads up on that. Jose Castro is also on the line, as always. So with that, Javier, go ahead, please. Javier Gerardo Astaburuaga Sanjinés: Thanks, Juan, and hello, everyone. As is customary in our calls, today, we'll focus on the consolidated figures for FEMSA and on FEMSA Comercio's results, since many of you probably had the opportunity to participate in Coca-Cola FEMSA's conference call earlier today. As you have also likely seen our detailed results, we will use this opportunity to share some of what we see as highlights and main trends in our business. As we mentioned in our release, we operate across many different markets and sometimes the diverse economic environments we face manifest themselves with particular clarity in our results. This was the case during the first quarter with our operations in Mexico performing solidly, both Coca-Cola FEMSA and especially FEMSA Comercio, but some of our operations in South America reflecting not only challenging operating conditions, but also the impact of currencies that weakened significantly against a strong Mexican peso. In terms of the macro drivers on our presumption of the consumer environment, we see trends that generally carry over the end of 2012. In Mexico, inflation has picked up slightly, while GDP growth and manufacturing activity have stabilized off the recent highs. The business mood is still positive, aided by expectations…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Alan Alanis with JPMorgan will be the first questioner. Alan Alanis - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: With the comment you made, Javier, regarding issuing debt, could you provide some -- a bit of -- more color in terms of the orders of magnitude of what you're thinking of? And if you can make any comment, regardless, both Coca-Cola in the United States and Hector, you said that, as it has been said in the past, that there would be something that you would look into when the opportunity arises. I mean, if there was going to be a transaction in the United States, I would assume that this would be Coca-cola FEMSA participating. But I guess, the question that I'm trying to ask is, would this strategic opportunity that you were talking at the FEMSA level would include something in the United States or another developed market? Or any other kind of color or update that you could give us in terms of the thinking of those strategic initiatives, would be appreciated, Javier. Javier Gerardo Astaburuaga Sanjinés: On the nature, magnitude and the tenor of the probable debt issuance, I'd rather not comment a lot. We are going to start, as I said, a roadshow early next week. And I think it's better for us to go and talk to investors before we give any public signal on what we're aiming at. But it shouldn't be a long time for you to find out what we're thinking, but I would just like to reassess the message that we're trying, again, to tap historical low interest rates and very favorable conditions in order to be flexible and ready to tap on opportunities that, hopefully, we can be able to tap in the foreseeable future. In terms…

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Karla Miranda with GBM.

Karla Miranda

Analyst · GBM.

Javier, I had a follow-on question regarding -- I know that you've been very specific on explaining what happened to the traffic during the first quarter. I'm just wondering if we should continue this downward trend in the quarters to come and how's April performing. Javier Gerardo Astaburuaga Sanjinés: It is hard to say, going forward, what's going to be the performance of traffic because as has been the story of OXXO, you have what I would call different course of development of different value propositions. So hopefully, we're able to, again, catch up with declining trends on some categories, with increasing trends on some others, and we are again, as we speak, looking a little bit on that. So going forward, I would say, it will depend a lot not only on the dynamics of the airtime category on itself because of the promotional activity or the pricing strategy of the key players in Mexico, but it will depend on how well we do our job in terms of, again, bringing in new offerings into the store. And in that regard, the service category growth is, I would say, we're enthusiastic about how it's been developed once we are starting to roll out new banks into the solution that is accepted in the stores. So that, coupled with fast food and gathering occasions and with daily replenishment, we think that we're going to be able to, hopefully, continue to build same-store sales on a balanced approach within traffic and tickets. And April, of course, I'm not commenting a lot on this, but you will need to bear in mind that last year, we had Easter in April and now we don't have that affect. So with that, I think, I'm -- telling already a lot. And as I said in my opening remarks, the second quarter, April, May and June, were months in which pre-electoral presidential elections activity was pretty much in favor for consumption, so we are looking at a tough comp for FEMSA Comercio for the second quarter. But all in all, as I said also in my opening remarks, we feel very comfortable in, again, achieving our results for the year that we have set ourselves at the end of last year.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from Lauren Torres with HSBC.

Lauren Torres - HSBC, Research Division

Analyst · HSBC.

I guess my question, also, is somewhat of a follow-up to the 2 previous questions. I think, Javier, when you said that you're expecting a slightly more cautious environment at the consumer level this year versus last year, that was specific to Mexico, is that correct? Javier Gerardo Astaburuaga Sanjinés: Yes.

Lauren Torres - HSBC, Research Division

Analyst · HSBC.

So if that's the case, I'm just trying to understand, now that you expressed the fact that, obviously, last year was a strong year. So was that more of a respect on a comparative basis? Or you are seeing some changes how people are spending, where they're spending..? Javier Gerardo Astaburuaga Sanjinés: No, no, it's much more, Lauren, on a comparative basis. And again, we had a number -- I didn't mention weather in the first quarter because we had, I would say, a mixed bag of weather all across Mexico particularly very, very cold, not so much wet, particularly in Northwest and Central North as well. But there are a number of effects built into last year's performance. And the start of the year, we have to remember as well that every 6 years, when there's a change on the regime of the president in Mexico, there's kind of a low start in terms of budget allocations and infrastructure building, and a lot of projects are either finalized or at least reviewed. So also, that's part of why we're thinking that consumers are going to be a little bit more cautious, particularly, at the beginning of the year, as we have seen in the first quarter. But again, we are very, very optimistic about the very fundamentals of the country going forward. So we will, hopefully, have a much stronger second half of the year and, of course, 2013 because of a number of things that are taking place in the country, should serve as a very, very good platform for growth for the medium and long term as well.

Lauren Torres - HSBC, Research Division

Analyst · HSBC.

Great, that's much clearer. And if I could also just ask about the CapEx spend. I guess, you mentioned in this quarter that some of the increased spend was more related to Coke FEMSA. Just curious if there's any comment, directionally, on what you're doing at FEMSA. I know with the store openings, you're somewhat on track for your long-term or your annual goal of 1,000-plus stores, but is there's anything new with respect -- any updates on how you're spending and where you're spending that incremental dollar in -- at Comercio, that would be helpful? Javier Gerardo Astaburuaga Sanjinés: You'll note that the structure of the CapEx program for the year is based on the number of stores we are targeting to open for the year and the amount of real estate we will buy, hopefully, and the amount that -- the number of distribution centers we will open and the increase in the specialized distribution routes. The composition of the CapEx for the year for FEMSA Comercio is pretty much similar to the one we exercised in 2012, both in its breakdown and in the amount, in the total amount that we're going to be exercising or we're doing. So there shouldn't be any change there. Basically, the increase, the substantial increase is coming more from Coca-Cola FEMSA, particularly, with the building of 2 plants that we announced last year. We will be building -- or we are actually building in Brazil, and we will start very, very soon to build in Colombia as well.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Lore Serra with Morgan Stanley.

Lore Serra - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

I'm sorry to kind of harp on a similar theme, but you were leaving me with the impression that the traffic would have been more negative in the quarter because of the -- the Easter shift was probably more important than Leap Day. So as you think about going from this traffic growth of 3% to a number that is negative, and that ticket's gone up a lot, and the gross margin's gone up a lot, is there any concern on the operator's part? I mean, you can see the segment data, you can see the specific data more than we can, that there's been, I don't know, too much pricing taken by some of your suppliers? I mean, what's driving that gross margin up 100 basis points? Javier Gerardo Astaburuaga Sanjinés: No, as I said -- and you're right, we look at the, I mean, the 8 million tickets we have on a daily basis, and we broke down those by consumption occasion and time of day and specific store, and we are not really seeing anything that calls for a, I mean, radical shift on habits of consumers or customers going to our stores. There is, again, if you look at, I mean, the tariffs of mobile airtime in Mexico starting in maybe September, October last year and continuing to the first quarter, there was a tremendous level of discounting taking place in the market. So again, if a person is -- used to call -- could use maybe 100 minutes for every week or every couple of weeks and now he's getting 30%, 40%, maybe more minutes for the same price, he's going to go to the store on a less frequent basis. So we're looking at traffic numbers based on the categories and operations that we're…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Alex Robarts with Citi.

Alexander Robarts - Citigroup Inc, Research Division

Analyst · Citi.

I have 2 questions. First, on the OXXO operations. Can you build -- drill down into the OpEx and specifically, the selling expenses? And as a percentage of sales, I mean, they've creeped up a little bit, and I'm just wondering, you make an interesting reference to specialized distribution routes with the whole prepared food initiative, and is it safe to -- or can we assume that maybe some of this bump-up in the selling expenses is measurably related to this rollout or I guess, the prepared food project? And specifically, where are you in the prepared food project? Sandwiches, a lot of new products coming online, but as far as the penetration and how you're doing with some of the baking and kind of -- and the facilities that you have up in Famosa in these areas and in the country that provide support to the initiative, it would be great if you could give us a sense where you are in that process, and do you think it gets to be prepared food more or less than 10% of your sales on an annual basis? So that's the first one. The second one is related to the stake in Heineken. I mean, the shares have been up 20% year-to-date. I guess, today, we see that first quarter had a 5% drop in volumes on a consolidated basis. And the question, really, I have is about the selling discipline that you guys have on the stake. You can sell some starting this quarter, you're clearly keen to raise some capital for a project that we'll -- I guess, we'll find out at some point. But in other words, does it make sense to trim your stake there and kind of just revisit your thinking, really, vis-a-vis the sale discipline…

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Alex Miguel with Itaú. Alexandre Miguel - Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A., Research Division: My question is just a follow-up on the traffic and also, I think I missed it in the beginning, but I just wanted to understand your views going forward for how you expect traffic to behave. I understand you mentioned that you still have other initiatives to bring traffic to OXXO, like with services and some other things, but I'm not sure if that will take place already throughout this year. So how do you expect traffic to behave in the following quarters and why? And my second question is mainly related to your initiatives on the drug store and the pharmacy segment. If you can share with us where you are and what are your plans, also, for the following quarters, will be excellent. Javier Gerardo Astaburuaga Sanjinés: Sure, Alex. Again, looking at the perspective of the traffic development for the rest of the year, I think that it will have a lot to do with, again, the pricing dynamics in the category, which is affecting traffic the most, as well as the success that we have in launching the new initiatives regarding fast food offering and services and, of course, leveraging our leadership in managing categories such as refreshment, ready-to-drink beverages, alternative beverages and the like. So I would say that we would need to look at, again, how pricing dynamics in the category indicates and hopefully, we're going to be able to again develop new value propositions to consumers that can compensate whatever negative effect we might have because, again, of these pricing dynamics taking place in the telephony category. And in terms of the pharma, Alex, we are very close to the time limit that the Antitrust Commission in Mexico has for declaring or giving the resolution, which is basically the only, the last, final requirement we have for closing this transaction. And we have complied with all the processes, information, inquiries that we have been subject to, and we are very optimistic and confident that in the very, very few days or coming weeks, we would be able to hopefully announce the closing of the transaction and start the work of integrating this new venture in the small-box format arena in Mexico. And as we said in the past, this is the starting point of a strategy that, hopefully, will combine going forward, more acquisitions in different geographies, as well as organic growth on a reviewed value proposition format for drugstores in Mexico, which is what we're aiming at. So that's basically the status of this initiative, Alex.

Operator

Operator

And moving on to Antonio Gonzalez with Credit Suisse. Antonio Gonzalez - Crédit Suisse AG, Research Division: I have 2 questions. The first one was just a follow-up on the OXXO traffic situation. I just wanted to ask if you can remind us first what's the average ticket at OXXO. And then, maybe if not numerically, at least, maybe if you have some qualitative comments on -- of the 8 million transactions that you mentioned earlier that you have at OXXO on a daily basis, how many do you think are actually related to mobile telephony, whether that is the only item related -- involved in the transaction or if there's, probably, more items involved? And I'm trying to understand, qualitatively, if you're seeing customers already relocating those pesos from the mobile telephony category to some other category inside the OXXO store. That's my first question and then, I just have a quick follow-up. Javier Gerardo Astaburuaga Sanjinés: Sure. The average ticket is slightly below $2, Antonio, that's pretty much what it is and, of course, it changes a little bit from geography to geography, being higher in the North than in the South; and in Central, pretty much average. But on the second one, we don't really disclose percentages of this kind of information. We think it's competitive-sensitive. What I can share as I said is, again, in retail, you compete in particular, in formats such as the one we're present more than frontally on the margin. So this situation of the pricing dynamics of the category is also taking place at a time in which you are not finding a lot of other retail offerings providing this service of airtime to consumers. So when we look at, again, at how good we are at satisfying different consumer needs…

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this is all the time we have for questions today. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Astaburuaga for posing additional remarks. Javier Gerardo Astaburuaga Sanjinés: Well, thank you, everyone, for taking the call. And goodbye for now and see you or talk to you in the next quarter. Bye now.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to replay the webcast for this call, you may do so at FEMSA's Investor Relations website. This concludes our conference for today. Thank you for your participation, and have a nice day. All parties may now disconnect.