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Flowers Foods, Inc. (FLO)

Q4 2015 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 11, 2016

$8.98

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Flowers Foods' Fourth Quarter and Full Year Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. My name is Ellen, and I will be your operator for today's call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to J.T. Rieck, Managing Director, Investor Relations. Mr. Rieck, you may begin. J.T. Rieck - Managing Director of Investor Relations/Financial Analysis: Thank you Ellen and good morning everyone. We realize today is a very busy day with multiple earnings releases and calls, so we appreciate you taking the time to join our call. Our fourth quarter and full year 2015 results were released yesterday evening and we expect to file the 10-K before the end of this month. You'll find the earnings release on the Flowers Foods' website. Slide presentation that supports our discussion today is posted on the conference call page along with the information about our independent distributor program and our updated two-page factsheet. Before we begin, please be aware that our presentation today may include forward-looking statements about our company's performance. Although we believe those statements to be reasonable, they are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. In addition to matters we'll discuss during the call, important factors relating to Flowers Foods business are fully detailed in our SEC filings. Before we get started with our discussion of the quarter and year's results, I want to alert you that Flowers Foods will host its Investor Briefing at the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday, April 13. Now let's get started. Participating on our call today, we have Allen Shiver, Flowers Foods' President and Chief Executive Officer; and Steve Kinsey, our…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Our first question is from Farha Aslam with Stephens.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Allen L. Shiver - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, Farha.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Two questions, the first one is on sales. You discussed sales slowed in December. Could you just give us some color on how they're starting off in January and your thoughts on the cadence of sales going into 2016? Allen L. Shiver - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: As far as sales, as with many other food companies, sales were soft in quarter four, not just December, but for the majority of quarter four. We're encouraged that we've started this year in line with our expectations and we're looking forward to the year ahead.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And the second question relates to your cost of goods sold versus pricing. We would have thought you would get more of a benefit from the lower commodity input costs. Could you share with us kind of what your ingredient basket outlook is for 2016 and how much you expect to keep versus how much will have to be passed on in the form of lower pricing? R. Steve Kinsey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Sure. I'm assuming you're talking about 2016.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Exactly. R. Steve Kinsey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah, looking ahead to 2016, obviously, you've seen a nice pullback in the wheat markets. And overall the general input basket, there is a nice tailwind coming into 2016. Saying that, there are some other costs that will be up, workforce costs will be up. There will also be some continued costs related to the integration of the two recent acquisitions as well as some costs related to continued growing in our expansion markets. So, from that perspective, it's not a wash, but we will see some offset of the tailwinds for 2016. Looking at the total basket for 2016, you're looking at mid-single-digit to slightly below from a – percent decrease year-over-year.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Great. Thanks for the added color. Allen L. Shiver - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you, Farha.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Eric Katzman with Deutsche Bank.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Hi. Good morning, everybody. Allen L. Shiver - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, Eric.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

A couple of questions, Maybe to follow up on some of Farha's line of questions. I guess you had gone through – if you look over the last eight quarters or so, you had managed to get kind of some – either flat, or some pricing for seven of the eight quarters. And so, what competitively occurred in the fourth quarter that pricing became much more challenging? Allen L. Shiver - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Eric, in certain core markets, we had competitive situations that we had to meet our market share or protect our market share. We are encouraged with IRI. You can look at the last quarter and really the month of December, the IRI number showed that there is improvement in competitive pricing. And I mentioned on the call earlier that we have pricing underway, that is already being put into place last quarter. But we also are looking at our promotional activity to make sure that we get the return expected whenever there is a price promotion on a certain item. So, pricing is top priority, it has been, especially in the back half of last year. And we expect to see results of that as we move forward.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

And Allen, would you say that the competitive pricing environment in the fourth quarter, was that a function of your branded competitors, or retailers and their private-label program, or both? Allen L. Shiver - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: It was primarily branded competitors.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And then Steve, I guess to the extent that you're forecasting core top-line growth that's very modest looking forward, including some expansion markets, which are typically like 1% or so. So, when you look forward, are you assuming that price is kind of flattish, or what have you kind of built in to the forecast? R. Steve Kinsey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Sure. When you look at the upper end of that range, Eric, we're assuming roughly 1% to 1.5% of price mix and roughly 1% volume on the core business, with the rest coming from acquisitions. And on the low end of the range, we're assuming flattish price mix and slight volume increases on the core business.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And I know you can't talk specifically about the IO litigation, but can you just say how much legal expense occurred in 2015 and what you're kind of assuming in 2016? R. Steve Kinsey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Looking to 2015, obviously – and thank you for understanding, we can't really discuss the specifics of the cost itself, but for the year, we were up roughly $5 million to $6 million with regard to legal expenses. So, it was a couple of pennies from an impact perspective. And then going into 2016, obviously, with the number of lawsuits increasing, we are forecasting that to be up slightly at this point.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

All right. And then I guess the last question – I guess I was a little bit – I think on the last call, you said that part of the acquisition challenge was – or the margins on the acquisitions was because demand was strong enough that you kind of had to use some contract manufacturers, et cetera, and that threw the production efficiencies off. And so, that comment would suggest that demand for the organic side of things was pretty good. But even with that and the understanding that they're not huge businesses, but even with that, sales came in obviously below plan. So kind of how do I gauge the success of the acquisition so far? Is demand still strong enough that it's screwing up your efficiencies by using outside manufacturing? R. Steve Kinsey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah, when you look at the acquisitions in the fourth quarter, primarily the Alpine acquisition, the big risk is when you begin integration, things starting to maybe fall off slightly. There was some business that was projected to come in the fourth quarter with Alpine, it did not come about. But the good thing is we're actually beginning to see that business come to fruition in the first quarter of 2016. So that did impact the projections for the organic business in 2015. So from a margin perspective, however, what I would say is we will continue to buy from co-packers. Prior to the acquisition, Dave's was actually using quite a few co-packers primarily for distribution across the total U.S. As we ramp up that distribution, Tuscaloosa facility will primary fulfill part of the demand in the Southeast. So obviously we'll continue to have to rely on co-packers for Midwest markets and the Northern markets as well. So that impact to gross margin will continue through the year, but we will see improvements over that as we move production into our Tuscaloosa facility. Allen L. Shiver - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: And Eric, just a comment on consumer demand, it remained strong and will remain strong for organics as we look forward. So, the sales adjustment Steve mentioned is more a function of timing, the consumer demand for organics is still extremely strong.

Eric R. Katzman - Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. I'll pass it on. Thank you. Allen L. Shiver - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Tim Ramey with Pivotal Research Group.

Timothy S. Ramey - Pivotal Research Group LLC

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Thanks. Allen L. Shiver - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, Tim.

Timothy S. Ramey - Pivotal Research Group LLC

Analyst

I had a question about the sales outlook versus the statement you made in the FAQ section of the independent distributor piece on your website. So, I mean, one of the key issues here is independence and how much control the IDs have over how their distributorship is run. None of these cases are going to get settled this year, I'm pretty sure. But I guess my assumption is that you would back off from some of the kind of more overt control steps, making drivers deliver to Dollar Store's, Burger King's and so on where they really don't view those as profitable stops. And that would have an impact on 2016 sales. How do you think about balancing those two needs to continue to have sales growth, but also to make sure that you're not being too aggressive on the control of their business? Allen L. Shiver - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Tim, some of the comments you just made, we do not agree with. Our independent distributors are independent business people. They run their business. They are in charge of their operations. And the items that you just mentioned are not accurate. We are continuing to be very confident in our independent distributor model. The lawsuits that are in place, we believe, do not have merit and our intention is to vigorously defend our position. And that being said, really today is about earnings and we'll be happy to take it offline if you have further questions.

Timothy S. Ramey - Pivotal Research Group LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Amit Sharma with BMO Capital Markets.

Amit Sharma - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Hi, good morning everyone. Allen L. Shiver - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, Amit.

Amit Sharma - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Steve, a couple of modeling questions first. From a margin perspective, acquisitions, are they still expected to be gross margin dilutive in 2016? And will they remain dilutive as long as you're buying from co-packers? R. Steve Kinsey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah, from a gross margin perspective, you will see them remain dilutive as we continue to buy from our co-packers. But again, that is key to the integration of the acquisitions and making sure we have the production to meet the market needs. What you will see though, with the Tuscaloosa facility coming on line at the end of the first quarter, you will see that impact begin to abate some as the year progresses.

Amit Sharma - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

And when do you expect to be fully producing the Organic Bread segment or anytime soon? R. Steve Kinsey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: I mean I think when you look at the demand for the products and you look at the production capacity, Tuscaloosa will only meet some of the incremental needs. We will, over the next two years to three years, will continue to rely on some co-pack production to be able to fill markets. But again, as we bring more of that into Tuscaloosa, some of that into Alpine, you will see the impact of that begin to decrease.

Amit Sharma - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

But given that this has lower SG&A structure, is it at least accretive on an operating margin basis or not yet? R. Steve Kinsey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah, from an operating margin perspective, we do anticipate they will be accretive. Looking at – in 2016, we do expect $0.03 to $0.05 accretion from the acquisitions from our earnings perspective.

Amit Sharma - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

All right. And then you said legal expense is slightly higher in 2016, were you saying incremental $5 million to $6 million or more than that or are you saying incrementally just sort of maybe a couple of million higher than they were in 2015? R. Steve Kinsey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: At this point, it's hard to forecast that, Amit. Again those costs can be lumpy from quarter-to-quarter.

Amit Sharma - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Right. R. Steve Kinsey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Looking at 2015 we were up roughly $5 million to $6 million and then projecting for 2016 currently, we're just saying – we anticipate incremental.

Amit Sharma - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. And then Steve, from – sorry – Allen, from a longer-term perspective, I mean, yes, we definitely hear what's happening from a category perspective. But this lack of visibility, even in the near term, is very surprising, right? And it raises serious question that do we have the ability to lead the category in terms of pricing, promotions or other growth initiatives? I mean, I hear that some of the competitive activity is beyond your control, but at this time, what can you tell us that gives us a little bit more confidence that this isn't going to happen again in the first quarter, second quarter or the rest of the year at this point? Allen L. Shiver - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Amit, again looking at the fourth quarter, the market was soft and we have heard that from retailers. We've heard it from other food companies. And whatever the reasons were, whether it was weather that was warmer than usual or other reasons, the fourth quarter was soft. I don't see any of the factors that influenced the fourth quarter dramatically changing the profile going forward. We're, as I mentioned earlier, we've started this year pretty much on track from a sales standpoint. We're very excited about the brand portfolio that our company has. When you look at the brands we've developed and the brands that we've acquired, now we have a strong brand in every segment of the marketplace. And the good news is that there's a lot of room to grow from a market share standpoint. I'd like to point out the specialty bread category and also the breakfast category are our two segments that are very much underdeveloped. Dave's Killer Bread and Alpine, again those also fit well in underdeveloped segments. So we have opportunities from a brand standpoint. We also have opportunities from a geographical expansion standpoint. Even though that we have – we're now serving 85% of the U.S. with DSD distribution, a large percent of that, our market share is underdeveloped because we haven't been there that long. So, we have tremendous opportunity to grow in new markets like Omaha, Indy, Kansas City, Denver; the list goes on and on, that we have tremendous opportunity to grow our market share simply by developing our brands in these new markets. So – and I think it's also worth reminding that this fresh bakery category is the third largest category in the supermarket. And so, even the category is flat to down slightly, it's still the third largest category, which is significant. So, we're bullish about 2016, and we feel like we have all the elements of growth that are going to be needed in place.

Amit Sharma - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Allen, I think I appreciate that. And I think the longer term view or longer term picture is clear, like what the opportunity is. But what happens when you have a couple of disappointing quarters and even the guidance doesn't look like it's going to get you back on track completely. That's what I'm trying to get a better sense of. Like – and appreciate the detail on pricing on your different categories in the presentation. But if you look at pricing trend, one of your biggest competitor has taken more pricing in the last year than you have, right. So, that's what I'm thinking going forward – and you talk about being more focused on pricing, but is it beyond your control if that competitor comes back and is no longer taking pricing? Are you still able to take pricing in this environment or no? Allen L. Shiver - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Amit, at the end of the day, the consumer determines what the correct price is for products. We're running our offense based on our cost structure and what price should be for our products. And based on what happens in the marketplace, we'll make adjustments if necessary. But we're very confident in all of the work that has already been done to maximize pricing, whether that's promotional pricing or increases in everyday pricing.

Amit Sharma - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

And the last one is, the discussion that you've had with retailers, they seem open to that opportunity that you have on pricing, or hard to negotiate? Allen L. Shiver - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Yeah. Through category management, our retailers realize the profit contribution that this fresh bakery category makes to their store. And they understand the need for improved pricing. Again, that is a general statement. You do have specific supermarkets or retailers that may have a different philosophy. But in general, the retail trade understands the value from a profit standpoint of the category.

Amit Sharma - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Got it. Thank you very much. Allen L. Shiver - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Akshay Jagdale with Jefferies.

Akshay Jagdale - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Hi, good morning. Allen L. Shiver - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Good morning, Akshay.

Akshay Jagdale - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

I just wanted to understand a little bit better what happened this quarter. I understand you are calling out category softness, but maybe I'm missing something. But from a category perspective, sequentially, the growth slowed down, it seems like, by 50 basis points or 60 basis points and your DSD sales slowed down sequentially organic growth by about 340 basis points. And then in November, the guidance you gave in November versus where you ended up, you missed by about $50 million or 4% relative to your own expectations for the quarter with less than two months remaining, right? So, I understand there was a softness, I get it. But the softness from what we're seeing and the data you presented about categories doesn't seem nearly as much as the numbers that you reported. So, what am I missing there? R. Steve Kinsey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: When you look at the components of the growth primarily in DSD, I think, Eric mentioned it earlier; we did see some pricing softness. When you look at price mix, it was relatively flat for the quarter. We had seen some improvement from that perspective in the first three quarters, so that did fall off in the fourth quarter and continued to progressively probably decelerate a little bit or accelerate a little bit more than we had anticipated. As I mentioned, the Alpine acquisition did come in slightly below plan, so some of that business did not come on as we had anticipated. That was roughly, I think, $9 million to $10 million of revenue. And then our volume and DSD did get softer in the fourth quarter than we had anticipated as well. We did not have as strong of a holiday around Thanksgiving or Christmas than we had forecasted. So those were two big factors and part of the falloff as well.

Akshay Jagdale - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Is there something going on – I mean, the DSD business inherently has more visibility than warehouse, right, because you're getting data pretty regularly. And your category has pretty high turns as well. So it's not like there's some inventory reductions that you're seeing at large customers either. So, I know there was a slight category slowdown, but you had a pretty – you had a more pronounced slowdown in your own sales. So, I appreciate the color on sort of the pieces, the acquisition coming in a bit lower than expected, but you had a $50 million miss with two months to go on the DSD business. So, I'm just a little bit lost there. Is it a share issue? Is it customer reducing inventory? Because in the measured channel, we don't see that level of a slowdown, if you understand where I'm going with that. R. Steve Kinsey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah. From a share perspective, we actually, I think, improved our share slightly within our DSD business. Again, part of it is just from an execution standpoint, we didn't meet some of the targets we had set. And then another factor would be obviously some of the slowdown in the category. But generally speaking, there's really no one factor that we can point to.

Akshay Jagdale - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Okay. And then just taking a – sorry? R. Steve Kinsey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Akshay, I was going to add that if you look at the IRI data for the quarter, obviously the category was down slightly, but our share did not decline. So, any sales that we did not capitalize on did not to go to competition. We still maintain our growth trend within the category. But the problem is that the category declined in the fourth quarter for, as Steve said, a multitude of reasons.

Akshay Jagdale - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Okay. And then just taking a little bit of a long-term view, taking into account the midpoint of your guidance and sort of taking out the acquisition contribution. So, if you take out $0.04 from your $1.01 guidance for 2016, get to $0.97, and if you meet that number you would have grown EPS at a CAGR of 2% over three years. I know there's – the base there has a massive growth number. But you've been talking a lot about long-term opportunities for growth, market share gains, etcetera, etcetera. Can you just help us understand then in that context why should – if there's opportunities for growth, you have commodity costs down, you have rational pricing starting to take hold, why should a company like yours with good execution only grow at a 2% CAGR over a three-year period? R. Steve Kinsey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: When you look over the last two years we've made several acquisitions, there has been a lot of cost coming into the system. Obviously based on the topline performance you can see we've not gained the topline growth that we had forecasted. So as you look to 2016 and coming off a couple of quarters here where there's been, from a earnings perspective and a topline perspective, we feel like, we're cautiously optimistic coming into the year, but what I would say is as we look at the growth opportunities we're betting down (49:00) a lot of that in 2016. We have a history of being the low cost producer. So if cost and revenue aren't matching, we'll take the necessary measures to make sure that cost is in line with the revenue structure. But I do believe with this organic acquisition, the on-trend growth there, we have a significant opportunity to get back on track from a revenue perspective, and then if we hit our revenue targets then you should see the earnings come back in line with what you would expect from Flowers from a growth perspective as well.

Akshay Jagdale - Jefferies LLC

Analyst

Yeah. That's helpful. I just feel like the focus could be more on margin enhancement. Just looking at the category it doesn't seem like there's a lot of growth left ahead that's margin enhancing, right, or margin accretive. I mean, you're trying to grow share, but the margins are getting hurt as a result. So, I mean, I think shareholders would also appreciate it if you're focused a little bit more on margins instead of just expansion. But that's just a comment, but thanks for taking my questions. R. Steve Kinsey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yeah, thank you.

Operator

Operator

The next question is from Bill Chappell with SunTrust. R. Steve Kinsey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning, Bill. Hello?

Operator

Operator

Bill, your line is open. We'll go to the next question. It's from Brett Hundley with BB&T Capital Markets. R. Steve Kinsey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning, Brett. Brett Michael Hundley - BB&T Capital Markets: Hey. Good morning, guys. Thank you. I wanted to just tag one more question on to pricing just to make sure I'm crystal clear, Steve. So, within your guidance it sounds like you're assuming anywhere between zero and 1.5% price impact, and can we assume that the majority of that assumption will be realized in Q1, and then thereafter assuming no decisions are made relative to demand trends that your full benefit of expectations would then flow in in following quarters? R. Steve Kinsey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. You should see in the first quarter of 2016 some of the pricing actions take fruition. And you should see a majority of those will be in place for most of the quarter. Brett Michael Hundley - BB&T Capital Markets: For Q1? R. Steve Kinsey - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Q1. Yes. Brett Michael Hundley - BB&T Capital Markets: Okay, all right. I appreciate the clarification there. And then I wanted to go back, Allen, to just the soft variety competition in core markets during the quarter. You can tell me if I'm just misunderstanding you, but the way that you had said it leads me to believe that maybe competition in soft variety wasn't as heightened in some of your more expansion markets relative to core markets, am I my understanding you correctly there? Allen L. Shiver - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Bill (sic) [Brett], of course our Nature's Own brand is the number one brand in soft variety. Price competition…

Operator

Operator

And we have no further questions. At this time, I'd like to turn the call back to Allen Shiver for closing remarks. Allen L. Shiver - President, Chief Executive Officer & Director: Very good. Again, thank you for your interest in our company. We're excited about 2016 and the momentum that we have moving forward into the New Year. And we look forward to visiting with you at the end of the quarter. Thank you for your attention this morning.