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Fluent, Inc. (FLNT)

Q4 2008 Earnings Call· Wed, Feb 25, 2009

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Cogent Systems fourth quarter earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions). I'd like to now turn the conference to our host, Chris Danne. Please go ahead, sir.

Chris Danne

Management

Thank you. Good afternoon and thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss Cogent's four quarter and full year 2008 financial results. This call is also being broadcast live over the web and can be accessed in the Investor Relations section of Cogent's website at www.cogentsystems.com for 15 days. With me on today's call are Ming Hsieh, President and Chief Executive Officer and Paul Kim, Chief Financial Officer. After the market close today Cogent issued a press release discussing the results for its fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2008. If you would like a copy of the release you can access it online at the company's website, or you can call The Blueshirt Group at 415-217-7722 and we will fax or email you a copy. This conference call will include a discussion of non-GAAP financial measures as that term is defined in Regulation G. Most directly comparable GAAP financial measures and information reconciling these non-GAAP financial measures the company's financial results were prepared in accordance with GAAP, are included in the earnings release which is posted on the company's website at www.cogentsystems.com. We would like to remind you that during the course of this conference call Cogent's management may make forward-looking statement including financial projections, statements as to plans and objectives of management for future operations and statements as to the company's future economic performance, financial condition or results of operations. The company believes that its estimates and expectations are reasonable and are based on reasonable assumptions. However, risks and uncertainties related to future events could cause the actual results to differ or differ materially from the expectations. For a full discussion of the risks and uncertainties please refer to today's press release and our recent SEC filings including, without limitation, the company's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2007. The company does not intend or assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. With that said I would now like to turn the call over to Cogent's President and CEO, Ming Hsieh.

Ming Hsieh

Management

Thank you, Chris. And thank you everyone for being on the call. At the beginning of the year we set out three main goals for the company. We [wanted] more consistent results, solidify our customer base and diversify our revenue. I'm pleased to report that we made a significant improvement toward achieving all these goals in 2008. As we projected we experienced a notable increase in fourth quarter revenue. Revenue grew by 14% sequentially and 83% year-over-year as we experienced strong demand from the Department of Homeland Security, Spain, Pennsylvania and there were other customers. At the beginning of the year we set our goal for $[122] million in sales, later updated to $125 million in sales. And I'm pleased to report that we accomplished this goal, achieving over $125 million in revenue for the year, or 19% of growth. While product mix end of the year we recognized revenue under certain contracts had an impact on gross margin in the fourth quarter, the [SPD] were $0.14 per share on a non-GAAP basis and a $0.52 per share for the year. Clearly we accomplished our goal and there were more consistent results. Another major goal for the year was to solidify and increase our customer base. Throughout the year we saw considerable orders from the Department of Homeland Security, our largest customer. In [approximate], we continue to see a number of potential drivers from this customer that we expect will continue into 2009 as the input to conversion from two to ten print in division with the FBI and the continued growth of the system and the expansion of the number of visitors to be searched. While we'll be conservative in our forecast for the DHS, we feel that ongoing competition for the ten print sub-system and the potential [long…

Paul Kim

Management

Thank you, Ming. I should mention that unless specifically noted otherwise we're discussing all number in a pro forma or non-GAAP basis. Fourth quarter GAAP results included $1 million in non-cash charges related to FAS 123r regarding expensing of stock-based compensation. Fourth quarter revenues were $40 million. Product revenues grew 27% from the third quarter while maintenance and service revenues decreased sequentially by 16%. During the third quarter we had a significant payment of maintenance on one of our large international customers. Revenue contributions during the quarter came from customers such as the DHS, Fresno, Ohio, NASA, Pennsylvania, as well as Spain. Gross margins were 58% in Q4 down from 71% last quarter due to product mix. For the year gross margin came in at 65.4% in line with our updated forecast from last quarter and ahead of our guidance at the beginning of the year. Looking ahead we expect gross margins to be in the range of 60 to 65% for 2009. Operating expenses as a percentage of revenue were at 24% this quarter down from 26% in Q3; in actual dollars operating expenses to $9.8 million from $9.2 million in the third quarter on higher revenues. Our operating expenses grew as we continued to hire employees to service our ongoing and to be delivered contracts. Excluding stock-based compensation and settlement income we project that 2009 operating expenses will be approximately $40 million. Operating margins excluding stock-based compensation of $1 million were 34% in the fourth quarter. We've recorded $3.8 million in interest income this quarter. Our tax rate was 29% during the fourth quarter. The company had greater than anticipated deductions for high domestic production activities during the back half of 2008 which was recorded in the fourth quarter which caused the low tax rate during the quarter.…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). Your first question comes from Joel Fishbein – Lazard Capital Markets. Joel Fishbein – Lazard Capital Markets: Just very quickly, can you – Ming can you give us a little bit of color around the potential size of the DoD, BOSS-U, the size, the potential opportunity at U.K. Post Office and with the Belgium Police. I understand that you're not, that it's not included in the guidance, but I'm just trying to get some clarity into the potential size of each of these opportunities for you guys?

Ming Hsieh

Management

Okay, Joe, as I mentioned at the conference call, the DoD BOSS-U contract, it is IV/IQ Contract. We are waiting for about a dozen task orders to come out in the next few weeks, so when task orders coming out will be able to try to compete and those results should be known very, very quickly. I couldn't give the specific guidance for what size BOSS-U yet. But the DoD did mention about the potential size for each individual contract. Regarding about the U.K. Post Office we are waiting the contract to be signed next week. Once the contract is signed, we will release the contract value next week. Joel Fishbein – Lazard Capital Markets: Okay and then Belgium. How about Belgium?

Ming Hsieh

Management

Belgium is about a few million dollars contract. But as significant is we are competing with a French-speaking territory and we were able to penetrate into the market.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes the Brian Gesuale – Raymond James Brian Gesuale – Raymond James: Wanted to dig into guidance a little bit, wondering if you could talk to us directionally about what you included from VISIT and DHS, either a dollar number or directionally up, down or flat?

Paul Kim

Management

So, as you probably know we had a record year from our revenues from the DHS in 2008. Order patterns for DHS, what we have in deferred revenues and our outlook's certainly promising for 2009. But we also have other big revenue assumptions in our guidance for 2009 including the Census, Northrop Grumman and a wide variety of other customers. At this point in time, we have only baked in the orders that we have as well as the nominal orders that we anticipate for them to keep up with the program. We did not anticipate the application of additional – the additional bandwidth that they could potentially need for a wide variety of solutions. That could potentially mean revenues for us. So with all that in mind in the $130 million we have determined that the DHS revenues that in the guidance would be lower than what we had in 2008. But also keep in mind that when we started out the guidance in 2008 we didn't anticipate as much revenues from the DHS as what actually ended up coming through for the company. So I think how we're going to approach the DHS is we will continue to talk about that important customer on each of our quarterly calls, but there's certainly the possibility a 2009 revenue contribution from DHS could be as high or if not higher than what we had in 2008, but then again, if that happened and we would change our guidance to the upside. Brian Gesuale – Raymond James: Okay, terrific. That's helpful. Wondering if you could also give us a little bit more color on gross profits this quarter in terms of product mix and then maybe what's maybe changed your view on gross profits for 2009?

Paul Kim

Management

Sure. Thank you for that question. As you know, Brian, quarterly gross margins for the company has fluctuated over the years. When we had some other international customers we've had quarters where gross margins were below 50%. I think for the fourth quarter gross margins came in in the high 50s, not over 60% based on product mix and that was largely due to one, international contract and the way we recorded revenues from it. It was for the Spain contract. The Spain contract had a multi-year maintenance provision in it and the way you record revenues under our software revenue recognition policy, is you carve out the revenues tied to the maintenance before you record the product. And what happens when you do that is you get a lower gross margin, particularly if you have a multi-year maintenance provision within that contract. And I think for Spain it was something like four, five, six years. Having said all of that, if you look at the gross margin profile for most of our contracts including Spain, they're all within the same range; it was just the way we calculated it. And also, if you look at our gross margin achievements for the past three years they have been progressively getting higher on an annual basis. In 2006 our gross margins were at 58%, in 2007 it was at 62% and in 2008 we ended up at 65.4%. And looking out into 2009, we're ranging that to 60% to 65%, but there's certainly the possibility it could be higher. When we initially guided gross margins at the beginning of 2008 we said that gross margins would be approximately 60% and then after a quarter or two we raised that from 62% to 67% and in the third quarter, we raised it finally to a level of 65% to 70% and we came within that range. So there's certainly the possibility in 2009 that gross margins could be higher that what we're currently ranging, but to the extent that we experience that, we will certainly update you on the future calls and give you that better range. Brian Gesuale – Raymond James: Okay, terrific. And then maybe could you update us on the stock buyback and what your activity has been and certainly, with the cash you're generating it seems like a very appropriate use of cash?

Paul Kim

Management

Sure, so during the fourth quarter we have bought a nominal amount of shares between 400,000 and 500,000 shares in the fourth quarter. This program what an expansion of what we initially announced of 100 million; we expanded the program to 150 million and today we have been very aggressive in executing on the program and we purchased approximately $60 million worth of stock. This program will be in existence for the next eight months or so. And it's in place so we can have the option of executing aggressively on that program.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Brian Ruttenbur – Morgan Keegan. Brian Ruttenbur – Morgan Keegan: First of all some housekeeping on CapEx anticipated and free cash generation that you anticipate in 2009?

Paul Kim

Management

Sure, so our Capital Expenses aren't that large. I believe that during any given quarter they run between $500,000 and $1 million. In 2009, there's a possibility that it could be slightly higher than that if we make some capital improvements in the building that we have. And depreciation will come out of the standing fixed asset balance. You can take a look at the amount that we depreciated. The company’s got very little intangibles and goodwill on the books I think. If you gross everything up on the intangibles and good will it’s between $2 million and $3 million. So largely if you take a look at our net income and then adding back the depreciation and the amortization you will get to the free cash flow for the company. There are going to be some working capital changes because our deferred revenue balance is sizeable, so there’s going to be some changes certainly related to that. But you should be able to get pretty close to that number if you do the math that I just commented on.

Brian Ruttenbur- Morgan Keegan

Analyst

And then can you talk about the FBI contract? Is it still slated to be awarded in the next 90 days?

Ming Hsieh

Management

I think the Cogent through the FBI's schedule that should be awarded first half of 2009.

Brian Ruttenbur- Morgan Keegan

Analyst

And do you still feel that you’re a front-runner for that?

Ming Hsieh

Management

Well, Brian, we are. We believe Cogent has the best technology to serve the interest of the FBI. But I’m not sure, I can’t equally sure is our interest is reliant with the old system integrator. To the best interest of the customer Cogent has the solution to deliver the value to the FBI. But the heart of the problem ends up, remember we are competing against one of the world's strong companies, which in backed up by the foreign government, so anything can happen. But I definitely believe that Cogent’s technology will outperform our competition.

Brian Ruttenbur- Morgan Keegan

Analyst

And then last question, why such conservative guidance given that you are awarded the U.K. contract, the Belgium, you have all these other things on the horizon that you basically have in hand but you’re not including in the guidance. What’s the logic behind giving such conservative guidance?

Paul Kim

Management

If you – you know this already, Brian, by covering us since we went public, but if you look at our prior years, 2007 and 2006, and if you take a look at where we ended up in terms of recordable revenues versus what we anticipated at the beginning of the year, we fell short in both those years. And we fell short not because we didn’t win the programs. We won those programs and we even collected the cash in those programs but we couldn’t record revenues because of revenue recognition implications. And we feel very good with the level of our business right now. Our backlog is at record levels, it’s at $168 million as we commented, and of the $168 million we have $74 million being deployable in the next 12 months and $94 million being long term. But as we kind of lay out exactly what we believe we can record into revenues, these contracts aren’t fully determinable just because some of them we don’t have the contract for. We need to be able to get the contracts and we need to be able to assess when we can record those into revenues. And until we get visibility for that we don’t feel it’s appropriate to include that kind of upside in the guidance. We certainly have time during the course of the year to update you on the revenue recognition implication, so we can color in a better forecast for 2009. But we don’t believe it’s appropriate to do it at this time. I’ll also give you another example. In 2008 we made our numbers, but the contracts that we recorded in 2008 weren’t exactly the contracts that we anticipated. We had a record year from the Department of Homeland Security, which was certainly a positive, but there are a number of programs that we won, we signed, we deployed, we even collected the cash, but we couldn’t record them into revenues. So we will certainly update you on our forecast as we have these quarterly earnings calls.

Brian Ruttenbur- Morgan Keegan

Analyst

And then last question, of that $140 million in last year's backlog, what was that – what percentage or what dollar amount was deployable? Was it same kind of percentage? That’s what I’m trying to look at.

Paul Kim

Management

So last year the backlog was at $140 million, $70 million was short term, and $70 million was long term. This year again, it's $168 million, $74 million in short term and $94 million is long term. And one other comment since we’re talking about backlog, our backlog has a conversion rate of revenues and cash collections of over 99%. We do not include the potential size of programs. We don’t include all the options. These are hard, practically non-cancelable orders that we’re reporting to you, so the $74 million that we have on the books right for the backlog that will be deployable.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from Daniel Meron – RBC Capital Markets.

Daniel Meron- RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

This is Daniel Meron with RBC Capital Markets. First question is just trying to maybe give – instead of looking at it on a pure project basis, can you give us a sense what is the amount of projects or the range of projects that may come into recognition in 2009? I realize that there are a few uncertainties but probably that there is some assessment or properties that you can assign to those. If you can just help us there, that would be useful.

Paul Kim

Management

So in 2009 there certainly will be good contribution of revenues from the Department of Homeland Security. You will also see contribution of revenues from Census. You’ll see contribution of revenues from Egypt. You’ll see contribution of revenues from Italy. You’ll see contribution of revenues from L.A. County. You’ll see revenues ticking from the Northrop Grumman arrangement for their use of our biometric technology into their programs. You’ll see contribution of revenues from Morocco. And you’ll see contribution of revenues from the current orders that we have in Fusion, as well as a variety of other smaller international and state and local customers. That’s what we currently have in our guidance, and as we indicated there are a number of programs that we have not incorporated into our guidance.

Daniel Meron- RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

And out of the extra $80 million give or take that are in longer term backlog, is there a possibility that is part of the contracts that you’re going to recognize, could they be moved ahead or get pushed out? What is the likelihood that stuff like that happens, that projects get moved around? For example if you were to take the 2008 numbers that you indicated before, how much of that was actually executed as you initially expected within 12 months? And how much of that was pushed out?

Paul Kim

Management

Yes that’s a good question. So of the $140 million backlog that we have, we said about $70 million was short term and $70 million was long term. The $70 million that’s in long term, there’s a less likelihood that those get pulled up and get brought into short term. There’s a greater likelihood that the revenue recognition for the items that are in short term could potentially get kicked out. And we believe that that kind of scenario will continue to stand for 2009. And I do have to correct myself. I know I said it was around 75, 90, 93 short term and long term. I think it’s more like $80 million, $90 million something like that. But I can clarify that offline. But the standing backlog that we had at the company at the end of 2008 they were at record levels.

Daniel Meron- RBC Capital Markets

Analyst

And then can you maybe just give us a little bit of a sense on how we should think about the first quarter or just how the year should progress? I mean this gets out to take the $130 million and kind of even out to like a piece in these early parts. You are assuming there will be a drop in the level. How should we think about the first quarter and how should we think about the progression throughout the year, although bearing in mind that you do have some programs that may be around, may get recognized as the year moves ahead?

Paul Kim

Management

Sure. So, good question, Daniel. So based on the high revenue levels that we had in the fourth quarter, we’re anticipating that first quarter 2009 revenues will be lower then what we currently forecasted, than what we currently posted in the fourth quarter of 2008. Looking at the overall year for 2009, we do not believe that 2009 will be – based on what we have in the $130 million guidance, will be at back-end loaded as what we experienced in 2008. Remember, in 2008, we had $50 million come in, in the first six months and $75 million in the last six months of the year. We believe that in 2009, it will start off in the first quarter and then kind of gradually get higher and then if we get any kind of upside from the revenue recognition implications of these programs, then that will get added onto our guidance. The other thing that I need to make a comment on, because we commented that our operating expenses would increase from approximately $35, $36 million to approximately $40 million, is we do not anticipate our operating expenses would go up should the revenues from some of these incremental programs kick in, because we are anticipating that we are going to be working on these programs. It's just the revenue recognition issue. So, you should see additional leverage within our operating model throughout the course of the year.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Scott Zeller – Needham & Company. Scott Zeller – Needham & Company: The first question is on Spain for the quarter. For the summer quarter, what was the revenue contribution from Spain?

Paul Kim

Management

Revenue contribution from Spain was approximately $4 million. Scott Zeller – Needham & Company: And of that number, how much of it was – you made reference earlier to professional services or maintenance.

Paul Kim

Management

It would be roughly $5 to $6 million, because our maintenance term on that contract was for a long period of time. Scott Zeller – Needham & Company: Okay. I got tripped up there. So you recognize $4 million in the quarter of $5 million or $6 million total?

Paul Kim

Management

No, of the $9 million to $10 million total. Scott Zeller – Needham & Company: Of $9 million to $10 million.

Paul Kim

Management

Yes. Scott Zeller – Needham & Company: And could you tell us what the Northrop contribution was for revenue in the quarter, December?

Paul Kim

Management

Zero. Scott Zeller – Needham & Company: And for 2009, what's your anticipated amount of revenue that you'll see from the Northrop Grumman team?

Paul Kim

Management

We do anticipate a decent chunk of revenues from Northrop Grumman based on the discussions that we're having with them. We're proud to report that towards the end of 2008 they have provided us significant purchase orders under their purchase agreement, purchasing our biometric technologies and our software. And based on the indication that we're having, we believe that the contribution for Northrop Grumman for top-line revenues could be anywhere in the $10 to $20 million range for 2009. Scott Zeller – Needham & Company: And that is already baked into the guidance?

Paul Kim

Management

Yes. Scott Zeller – Needham & Company: Lastly, could you go through the components of what you're showing on deferred right now? Can you break that out and tell us how much of it is from Northrop, how much of it is maintenance, etc?

Paul Kim

Management

So, the largest component of what's in deferred revenues is from the Department of Homeland Security, that's approximately $15 to $20 million. We have approximately $15 million of deferred revenues from Northrop Grumman. We have another $67 million of deferred revenues from Spain, another $6 million of deferred revenues from Maryland. We have another $4 million of revenues from Italy. We have over $13 million of deferred revenues just from ongoing maintenance from all of our existing AFIS programs over the years, and then the remaining balance are from smaller projects and contracts. Scott Zeller – Needham & Company: And of those larger numbers such as Spain, Maryland, Italy, are we to assume that those numbers are a mix of both product and services?

Paul Kim

Management

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Paul Coster – JP Morgan. Paul Coster – JP Morgan: Paul, what percentage of your revenues came from international customers and was there any currency impact?

Paul Kim

Management

We did have some currency impact, just because the dollar got stronger. We had a couple hundred thousand dollars of loss because we have some receivables in international currencies, particularly the euro. And then for the balance of the year, we had 60%, 70% of our business, maybe a little bit more, come from domestic customers, just because the biggest customer during the quarter was the Department of Homeland Security. I think I said the year. I'm talking about the quarter, Q4. Paul Coster – JP Morgan: What percentage of your revenue was with DHS? I may have missed that.

Paul Kim

Management

DHS was the majority of our revenues during the quarter, so it was more than half our revenue. Paul Coster – JP Morgan: Why do you think there is suddenly so many opportunities in your pipeline? I think you mentioned 12 and plus this new one coming up as well. What's going on there?

Ming Hsieh

Management

Well, Paul, definitely you probably know a couple of noticeable programs in U.K., [EMBIS], [MAYTAS] and there are several opportunities in the U.K. also related to the Olympics. So that’s only along in the U.K. line there, and we also have U.K. border security projects. We see the continued interest generated from various countries – various from national ID projects to the voter registration project. And also we mentioned for the last several conference calls, we're still awaiting for the contract award from Algeria, NGI and the various other programs. Paul Coster – JP Morgan: Paul, I apologize for this question, but the deferred revenues, is that part of the 12-month bank loan or is that separate from it?

Paul Kim

Management

That is part of it.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Brian Blair – Wedge Partners. Brian Blair – Wedge Partners: I was wondering if you could just give a little bit of detail on the progress of BlueCheck and what your expectations are for the year, and maybe discuss any geographies, any states that are showing particular interest right now, maybe outside of California?

Ming Hsieh

Management

For the BlueCheck products, definitely we have a pretty good market response. Definitely, our current largest user it is Los Angeles County's Sheriff's Department, as well as the LAPD. So far, we've deployed close to 3,000 devices, and we expect to deploy another 2,000 more within this year. Besides Los Angeles County, we also have a strong demand from Florida, Pennsylvania, as well as the U.K. Brian Blair – Wedge Partners: And do you think that that 3,000-unit number, I mean just kind of approximating the demand this year, could that number double this year, or do you think it could be much greater than that by the end of 2009?

Ming Hsieh

Management

I think we've got a pretty strong response for that product line. We also are definitely working on several other states regarding the other products. We do have that potential.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from [Lewis Gold] – Open Field Capital. [Lewis Gold] – Open Field Capital: I was just wondering if you could give us an idea in terms of gross margin range, where the Fusion product sells at?

Ming Hsieh

Management

One of the major components of the Fusion is the software, because the Fusion we could conduct the fingerprint search, latent search, iris search, as well as a facial search. So, it seems that the majority of the accounting is the software, so the margin profile, it could be above 60%.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions in the queue. I will now turn it back to management for any closing remarks.

Ming Hsieh

Management

Thank you for everyone being on the call today and we're very appreciative of your support. We look forward to update you on our programs in the next few months. Thank you, very much.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the Cogent Systems fourth quarter earnings conference call. You may now disconnect.