Kevin Krumm
Analyst · JP Morgan. Please proceed with your question
Thank you, Revathi. Good morning, everyone. Starting with our Q4 results on slide nine. Fourth quarter revenue came in at $6.4 billion, up nearly 4% versus prior year. Gross profit totaled $602 million, and gross margin improved to a record level 9.4%, up 80 basis points. Operating profit was $396 million with operating margins at 6.2%, up 80 basis points. And as Revathi mentioned, this was a new record for Flex. Finally, earnings per share for the quarter increased 28% year-over-year to $0.73 per share. Turning to our quarterly segment results on the next slide. In reliability, revenue was $2.9 billion, down 1.3%, largely driven by strength in power offset by continued softness in core industrial and renewables. Operating income was $180 million with segment operating margin up 40 basis points, finishing at 6.2%. Agility revenue totaled $3.5 billion, growing a very strong 8.2%, driven by cloud demand and networking share gains offsetting weak enterprise IT and consumer end markets. Operating income was $230 million with operating margins up 100 basis points and improving to a new quarterly record of 6.6% on continued mix improvements. Looking at our full year FY '25 results on slide 11, revenue was $28.5 billion, down 2% driven by strength in cloud and power, primarily offset by continued softness in core industrials and renewables. Gross profit totaled $2.3 billion and gross margin improved to 8.8%, up 100 basis points driven by strong mix. Operating income totaled $1.5 billion, up 15%, leading to a 5.7% operating margin up 90 basis points, driven by favorable mix impacts and operational efficiency. I'll point out we hit record levels for both annual gross and operating margins this year. For the full year, Flex achieved EPS of $2.65, up 23% driven by record operating profit and strong free cash flow conversion, which contributed to another year of strong share buybacks. Moving to our cash flow on slide 12. Free cash flow in the quarter was $325 million. And for the full fiscal year we delivered a record $1.1 billion in free cash flow. The strong performance is coming from CapEx discipline and continued focus on working capital management with outsized reductions in inventory. In Q4, net inventory was down 4% sequentially and 18% year-on-year. Inventory net of working capital advances was 56 days, a reduction of 14 days versus the prior year. For the quarter, net CapEx totaled $108 million, bringing full year CapEx to $423 million or approximately 1.6% of revenue. In the fourth quarter we repurchased about $300 million of stock or approximately 8 million shares. Our capital allocation priorities remain intact. We are focused on maintaining our investment grade balance sheet, funding CapEx to support organic growth, deploying capital towards accretive M&A and returning capital to our shareholders opportunistically through our share repurchase program. This was evident in FY '25 as we deployed CapEx judiciously spent about $400 million on strategic accretive M&A and repurchased nearly $1.3 billion of stock representing about 9% of our outstanding shares. Turning to our segment results for FY '25 on slide 13. FY '25 was a highly dynamic year. Still, we delivered exceptional performance in key end markets such as data center, as well as achieving growth in medical devices and automotive power electronics where we continue to benefit from content gains. Macro driven headwinds affected several end markets including core industrial, renewables and medical equipment. We believe these headwinds are temporary and expect these end markets to support growth in the future. Our diversified end market strategy has enhanced our resilience through market cycles while simultaneously driving growth in our strategic focus areas. Additionally, active portfolio management to improve mix, growth in our products business and expanding value-added services has helped drive strong margin expansion through the cycles and in both segments. Finally, our focus on operational excellence and efficiency is contributing to record level operating margins. In our Reliability segment, revenue was $11.7 billion with operating margin finishing at 5.8%. Again, that's a record level for the segment and despite the top line pressure, the team still delivered 50 basis points of margin improvement. In our Agility segment, revenue totaled $14.1 billion delivering a 6.1% operating margin, also a record. I'm reminded agility margins used to be around 2%, so that's quite a transformation and it reflects purposeful mix shift towards higher value business in all three business units. Looking at our full year '26 guidance on slide 14. With respect to the current macro environment, we're taking a conservative approach to our initial guidance. We believe it's prudent to provide a wider than usual revenue range, recognizing there are a lot of variables that create uncertainty for our customers. That said, we have not expanded the range for our operating margin or operating profit as we are confident in our ability to navigate this environment from a profitability standpoint as we've done over the last few years and in other challenging situations. Additionally, we have not incorporated direct tariff impacts to our expected costs or revenues given the rapidly changing nature of the situation. I'll explain that in further detail in a moment. Another factor to consider as we look to FY '26 revenue guidance, we are seeing an increasing number of customers moving to our customer sourced inventory models, particularly in our cloud business. Financial reporting requires that the value of the customer source inventory under these contracts be excluded from revenue. The net effect is that this shift in contract mix is muting our reported growth rate by excluding this activity which is growing significantly year-on-year from revenue. With the strong growth in our data center business, cloud is becoming a more material contributor and within cloud, we are seeing an increase in adoption of these models. In FY '25, this customer source inventory activity increased $1.5 billion and represented approximately 17% of revenue. This is versus approximately 11% of revenue in FY '24 and is expected to increase an additional $1 billion plus in FY '26 which would represent approximately 20% of revenue. We've said in the past we support our customers in either standard purchase and resale models or these consignment-like models because they both drive operating profit dollar growth which you saw increase 15% year-on-year in FY '25. The simple takeaway is that we are winning new higher value data center business not fully reflected in growth rates which is driving growth in operating profit and EPS and generating greater value for our shareholders. As we look ahead, our FY '26 expectations are revenue to be between $25 billion and $26.8 billion; adjusted operating margin to be between 6% and 6.1%. As we said in the past, our global tax rates increase -- excuse me -- as we've said in the past, as global tax rates increase, we expect some headwinds. So, for FY '26 we expect our adjusted tax rate to land at about 21%. We expect adjusted EPS to be between $2.81 to $3.01 per share, and we expect to generate strong free cash flow and maintain our 80%-plus free cash flow conversion target. As Revathi said, our adjusted operating margin guidance implies that we hit our FY '27 target of 6%-plus operating margins a year earlier than expected. With regards to tariffs, it is a highly dynamic situation, but a few things to keep in mind. We expect tariffs to be a pass-through cost, and we typically have strong contractual protections to allow for this. Tariffs can affect cash flow timing if there is a lag between when we pay the tariff at the border and receive the recoveries from customers. Depending on the magnitude, tariff recoveries could have an impact similar to inflation recoveries during supply chain crisis where we saw a slight increase in revenue growth and slight pressure on operating margins as recoveries came in as low-calorie revenue. Lastly, some Flex One power products could be subject to tariffs due to current material and component sourcing. While we don't anticipate this to be a material issue, we do have pricing actions underway to offset these impacts where needed. Obviously, this is all still rapidly evolving, which is why we've excluded these direct tariff factors from our guidance. I just want to reiterate we have a strong footprint in the right geographies which we are confident will allow us to help our customers navigate this environment and position Flex well to benefit from the longer term trends in regionalization. Moving onto our initial FY '26 segment outlook. For Reliability Solutions, we expect revenue to be flat at the midpoint, with continued strength in data center power offsetting macro related softness in automotive, core, industrial and renewables. For Agility Solutions, we expect revenue to be flat to slightly up, driven by sustained strength in cloud demand, network and share gains and lifestyle wins tempered by soft enterprise, IT, telco and consumer devices. Finishing off with our guidance for the first quarter on slide 16. We expect Reliability Solutions to be flat to down high single digits, largely due to expected auto weakness on tariff related disruptions affecting customer volumes. We expect Agility Solutions revenue to be down low single to up mid single digits based on strong cloud balanced against softer enterprise, IT and consumer related end markets. For total Flex, we expect revenue in the range of $6 billion to $6.5 billion with adjusted operating income between $330 million and $370 million. Interest and other expense is estimated to be around $50 million, and the adjusted tax rate to be around 21%. Lastly, we anticipate adjusted EPS to be between $0.58 and $0.66 per share based on approximately 385 million weighted average shares outstanding. With that, I will now turn the call back over to the operator to begin Q&A.