Operator
Operator
Good day and welcome to the Five Below Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I’d like to turn the conference over to Farah Soi. Please go ahead.
Five Below, Inc. (FIVE)
Q4 2014 Earnings Call· Wed, Mar 25, 2015
$233.11
-0.49%
Same-Day
+10.34%
1 Week
+12.66%
1 Month
+8.63%
vs S&P
+6.19%
Operator
Operator
Good day and welcome to the Five Below Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I’d like to turn the conference over to Farah Soi. Please go ahead.
Farah Soi
Management
Thank you, operator, good afternoon, everyone and thanks for joining us today for Five Below’s fourth quarter 2014 financial results conference call. On today’s call are Joel Anderson, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Ken Bull, Chief Financial Officer. After management has made their formal remarks, we will open the call to questions. I need to remind you that certain comments made during this call may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to and within the meaning of the Safe Harbor Provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended. Such forward-looking statements are subject to both known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. Those risks and uncertainties are described in the press release and Five Below’s SEC filings. The forward-looking statements made today are as of the date of this call and we do not undertake any obligation to update our forward-looking statements. Finally, we may refer to certain adjusted or non-GAAP financial measures on this call. A reconciliation schedule, showing the GAAP versus non-GAAP financial measures is available in our press release issued today. If you do not have a copy of today’s press release, you may obtain one by visiting the Investor Relations page of our Web site at fivebelow.com. I will now turn the call over to Joel.
Joel Anderson
Management
Thank you, Farah, and thanks everyone for joining us for our year-end earnings call. On today's call I want to first review our fourth quarter performance and the highlights of 2014 before discussing our priorities and areas of focus for 2015. I am excited to be leading this extraordinary team of people as we execute on the tremendous growth potential that lies ahead. We have accomplished a lot over the last 60 days and it is great to finally be able to share some of that with you. I also want to share how we are thinking about 2016, so you have a longer view of the journey we are making. Then Ken will discuss our financial results and guidance in more detail before we open the call for your questions. Starting with the fourth quarter, we delivered sales of 264 million a year-over-year increase of 24% driven by strong performance of our new and non-comp stores as well as a 3.2% same-store sales increase. Q4 comps of 3.2% are in line with the updated guidance of approximately 3% that we shared with you in early January. This marks our 35th consecutive quarter of positive comps. As we told you in January we posted Black Friday softness in the business which continued into early December until the business rebounded closer to Christmas and into the post holiday period. From a merchandise standpoint we saw strong performance out of our beauty, toy and candy departments as well as a positive impact from frozen merchandise across several departments. At the same time we believe our crafts and tech worlds could have performed better. We also saw strong results from the limited TV test we conducted in Q4, which reinforces our belief that a key opportunity lies in building awareness of our brand…
Ken Bull
Management
Thanks Joel and good afternoon everyone. I will begin my remarks with a review of our fourth quarter and fiscal year 2014 results and then discuss our outlook for the first quarter and full year of fiscal 2015. Our sales in the fourth quarter of 2014 were $263.8 million up 24.4% from the $212 million reported in the fourth quarter of 2013. We ended the quarter with 366 stores, an increase of 62 new stores or 20.4% versus the 304 stores at the end of 2013. Comparable store sales increased by 3.2% on top of a 0.3% comp increase in the fourth quarter of last year. Our Q4 2014 comp was driven primarily by higher average ticket as compared to Q4 2013. In Q4 last year we saw the lower price rubber band sales trend drive lower average ticket. So this increase represents more of a normalization of ticket versus the prior year period. Gross profit increased 26.3% to $106.3 million from the $84.2 million reported in the fourth quarter of 2013. Gross margin increased by approximately 60 basis points to 40.3%, driven primarily by better merchandize margins versus the prior year period despite incurring some additional freight cost related to the West Coast port labor issues. We are very pleased with how our team has handled the port disruption by proactively accelerating receipts and rerouting shipments as needed beginning in Q3. Thanks to their foresight we did not experience any delivery issues and were in stock during holiday. We have not seen any meaningful delays in product flow for Q1 thus far related to the port situation and currently do not expect delays for Q2. When I referred to adjusted SG&A, adjusted operating income and adjusted net income, this excludes the impact of the pre-IPO founders transaction and costs…
Joel Anderson
Management
Thank you Ken. In closing we delivered a strong 2014 with a 31% increase in adjusted EPS and 2015 is shaping up to be an exciting year for Five Below. We were setting out to accomplish a lot in 2015 and I've shared with you many details. We are positioning the brand for the years of strong growth that lie ahead and after having doubled our store count in the last four years we are looking to do that again in the next four years. I'm proud of the team we have in place and confident in their ability to execute. I would like to thank all of our great associates for their hard work and dedication and thanks to all of you for joining us today. I hope you are as excited about the future as we are. With that I'd like to turn the call back over the operator for questions. Operator?
Operator
Operator
[Operator Instruction]. Well go first to Charles Grom of Sterne Agee.
Renato Basanta
Management
This is actually Renato Basanta on the line for Chuck. So I guess first on the comp guidance for 1Q. You mentioned 1% or 2% for the quarter and sort of a slow start to the year. But I think you have pretty strong April and Easter period last June, Easter it is a bit earlier this year. So is it kind of fair to say that quarter to date trends are running somewhere in North of that range. I mean are you sort of baking that into guidance?
Joel Anderson
Management
I think what we're saying is that with the weather we saw in the second half of February and the first half of March. We got off to a slow start and as you know Easter is a very important part of Q1 and those big weeks are still off in front of us. Ken would you add anything else on that?
Ken Bull
Management
That’s right Joel and then also it's difficult to be able to talk and we normally don’t talk about monthly comp throughout the quarter. But would be even more difficult in this quarter given the shift in Easter.
Renato Basanta
Management
And then just touching on distribution a bit. I think you said you have 50 basis points drag from Olive Branch back in 2013. If you are to kind of isolate Olive Branch and the impact on margins this year. Did you see any impact at all? And then I guess looking forward or looking at this year I know you have the hit from South Jersey DC. Will you see any positive impact at all from Olive Branch as the ramp up there continues?
Ken Bull
Management
I think when we bought Olive Branch on in 2013 we had mentioned that there was about 50 basis points drag on overall DC cost. We have seen that as we've been able to ramp up the throughput and the stores that are being service by the distribution center we have seen improvements there in terms of overall performance with Olive Branch.
Operator
Operator
Thank you. And once again everyone if you could please limit yourself to one question. We will take our next question from John Heinbockel with Guggenheim Securities. Q - John Heinbockel I'll ask two parts here, so number one just on marketing. I think you spend about 20 million a year on marketing give or take. Do you see that going up as a percent of sales this year and then of the amount what percent of the spend would be digital and how fast does that grow in the coming year put that double or triple. And then I guess the second thing on merchandizing what Romanko will focus on. Joel where do you think the most opportunity lies in 2015 maybe by world. Is probably the biggest opportunity, style, where you see the big hits?
Joel Anderson
Management
There is lot in that two part question there John, I’ll try and cover. As far as the marketing piece goes for 2015 the absolute dollars will be up but we’re planning to hold the rate the same as it was last year. And it’s safe to say we’ll increase our spend in digital as I said in my prepared remarks, we’re making the shift strategically from being primarily circular driven and will include a Q2 test and an expanded Q4 test. We’re still putting the exact dollars amounts buying that, but the overall spend will be about the same rate as it was last year. In terms of merchandising, I shared with you a couple of examples in my remarks earlier. Michael has already made a big impact in the now section. And I think what’s important to call out on that is that has an immediate impact on what our customer sees when they walk in our stores. We continue to get traction in the beauty world and have seen a lot of success from that, but I think what is important to share with you as Michael sees opportunity in all the worlds. And I think as the year goes on depending on if those worlds are domestically bought or are imported, you are going to see some of those change faster than others. But we’re working honestly on improving the impact in all the worlds, John.
Operator
Operator
And we will take our next from Dan Binder of Jefferies.
Dan Binder
Management
It’s Dan Binder. My question is about e-commerce and customer engagement. As it pertains to e-commerce I think part of the attraction of the story when you went public was that it was Internet resistant given the low price points. So as you think about a transactional Web site, you mentioned selling both products. I am also just wondering do you think about selling completely different set of merchandise. If we look at Costco for example there is a lot less overlap with their stores versus what’s online versus maybe some other retailer. If you could add any color around that? And then with regard to customer engagement, really that’s part of it, I am just curious when we should start to see some of these shifts in media that you talked about?
Joel Anderson
Management
We still believe the concept is Internet resistant, and I think what I want to just reiterate is my number one priority is store growth. And we shared with you not only our store growth plans for this year but gave you a longer term outlook on next year of 85 stores. That should signal to you that we are very bullish on the opportunity to continue to rollout stores throughout the United States for Five Below. We do know that our core customers are Digital Native, and so with that we’re focused on our digital marketing efforts and e-commerce is a piece of that. It’s not what’s going to derive the success of Five Below but we need it to compliment the offering and the product for Five Below. We haven’t contemplated that this time offering a large deviation from what’s in the stores. I think it’s important for us that we get e-commerce up and running. That will come with measured disciplined approach, as right now we’re focused on all those systems infrastructure, distribution, we’ll receive consolidation et cetera, and we’ve got to get those in place to make sure that our number one priority store growth continues to drive this concept. Your second part was a question about customer engagement.
Dan Binder
Management
Start to see some of these digital shifts and....
Joel Anderson
Management
So when will we start to see the shifts, right? And you will begin to see as early as Q2, a new TV campaign. We’ve already started to launch some commercials on for example on YouTube and are beginning to get more traction with many other different social networks out there. So we’ve already begun that now. And we will continue to test TV throughout Q2 and into Q4 and that will help give us indications of how fast we should think about a team wide rollout.
Operator
Operator
And we will take our next question from Michael Lasser of UBS Investment Bank.
Michael Lasser
Management
I was hoping you could explain a little bit more on some of the investments that are being made this year, both from a timing perspective, Ken you offered some details, maybe you can review that where the offers are going to come in, because tying into the model is like there is some disconnect there. I mean indeed can you also offer a rationale behind some of the investments. I think we can understand some of the systems area although at the time of the IPO part of the story was that the company -- they laid the foundation and investment into some that were capable of handling a much bigger company. And then being on the people side, are you noticing some bottleneck? Are there areas right now where there's just not enough human talent in place to handle the growth of the company and does that explain why trends haven’t went up to your expectations this quarter?
Joel Anderson
Management
Yes, I'll turn it over to Ken to share many of the thoughts on that and just a thing I'll remind you the IPO was nearly three years ago and since then we've doubled our store count and we're going to double it again, so I think it's prudent that we can't continue to invest in the systems. You want to give some cadence on this?
Ken Bull
Management
Sure, sure. And Michael I'll just talk about the year first and when we talk about those investments I mean really what we've spoken to was the new distribution center that we're bringing on board, and then the leadership investments. And on a full year basis we're looking about at a slight deleverage on overall operating margins with the impact of both of those really primarily being in the first half of the year and one of the reasons why I wanted to kind of call out some of the quarters is just the impact and the nature of those. So if you go to Q1 really what we're seeing there no new distribution center impact in Q1 as we don’t take possession of the new DC until Q2, but we are being impacted by the leadership investments there and I spoke to about a 100 basis points of expected operating margin deleverage there. And then we get into Q2, there's a few things going on there. So overall about a 300 basis point decline in operating margins, we've got about a 125 basis points related to the DC, now that includes about 50 basis points of depreciation and SG&A and the remainder of up and cost of goods sold related to start up and relocation costs. And then again we've got the leadership investments in SG&A in Q2 and then we have the shift in marketing around the TV tests, so dollars that are being pulled out of Q3 and pulled up into Q2. And then as I mentioned when we get into the Q3 we would expect slight operating margin improvement and I think I mentioned the full year. So that's just a kind to call out the cadence where again it's the distribution center and leadership investments primarily having an impact on the first half of the year.
Joel Anderson
Management
And since then Michael you called out people bottlenecks, in fact I think it's just the opposite. Eric joined when I came on, I shared with you Bill and Michael Romanko and many of the other leaders that we have here. So it's just the opposite, I think we've really strengthened the Five Below leadership team over the last six months and that's actually allowing us to accelerate and go faster.
Operator
Operator
And we will take our next question from Meredith Adler of Barclays.
Meredith Adler
Management
I wanted to kind of go in a different direction, I was wondering when we look at performance in the fourth quarter. Well I guess the question is do you have stores located today that are in shopping centers anchored by grocery stores? And did you see a different kind of performance in those stores and then the question that goes with that is, is there any thought about putting more of your new stores into grocery anchored shopping centers?
Joel Anderson
Management
The short answer is yes we do have stores located near grocery and no we don’t see a significant difference in performance in stores that have a grocery store versus stores that don’t have a grocery store. I think our overall real-estate strategy looks at the broader demographics as a marketplace rather than the specific capabilities of whether there's a grocery store or not. I think bigger picture it's more of an opportunity we have in early December and that's why I shared with you some of the things we're looking at from a marketing and merchandizing perspective.
Operator
Operator
And we will take our next question from Thomas Filandro of Susquehanna International Group.
Thomas Filandro
Management
My question I think Joe you mentioned earlier in your comments that beauty I think sport and candy were three areas were closed out and I don’t know if you used the word underperformance to some expectations with craft and tech, two part question related to that. Was there any notable movement in the margin across the world and can you tell us a little more about maybe what went wrong and what the strategies are to improve the craft and tech areas?
Joel Anderson
Management
On the margin piece, no there's nothing notable there the worlds that I called out I think on the craft side despite rubber band and the loon trend from the prior year, candidly we just thought this year we could have done better than we did as we anniversaried that and so we've got to go back and really uncover how we can recover from a trend like the rubber band and loon faster and I think we just thought that our internal forecast would have cycled that better than we did. On the test side we were over sorted in a few of the categories and we have an opportunity to tighten this up and Five Below is all about presenting a more edited trend right assortment to our customers and these are important departments and worlds for us, and while we accelerate in some worlds when we don’t quite it right we want to be transparent with you and we go back to the world and we’re going to get it right. So in fact we’re already starting to see improvements there.
Operator
Operator
And we will take our next question from Jeremy Hamblin from Dougherty & Company.
Jeremy Hamblin
Management
Just a question on e-commerce, did you give sense for when you're expecting potential Web site to launch for transactions? And then the second part to that question would be in terms of fulfillments warehousing distribution, is that something that given your store growth, are you going to outsource that initially and then bring it in-house or is it something where you'd start in-house from the beginning?
Joel Anderson
Management
Sure, what I said on the e-commerce is that we plan to launch that within the next two years. It’s more important to me that we make sure we do everything in our power to get the store growth right and that’s why distribution oversees consolidation all these systems enhancements those are the number one priority. Those will benefit e-commerce when we're ready to launch it, but the plan right now is within the next 24 months. In terms of when we launch and what will fulfillment look like, we haven’t nailed down exactly but outsourcing would probably be more prudent in the early days than disrupting our current distribution centers.
Operator
Operator
And we’ll take our next question from Matt Nemer with Wells Fargo.
Trisha Dill
Management
It’s actually Trisha Dill in for Matt today. Just sort of a bigger picture question on the traffic slowdown over the holiday. I know you talk about marketing, after taking a step back, is there anything else you think relative to the softness and then maybe you can talk about how that slowdown looked across your mature markets versus some of your new markets?
Joel Anderson
Management
Yes, certainly we think marketing is the biggest opportunity for it. And I shared with you some of the comments around craft and tech, but during that that slow period we saw that trend happen across all our worlds. So it really leaves us to believe it was more traffic issue than it was merchandised issue with our customers especially as we got into the back half of December and saw sales accelerate into Christmas and the week after Christmas. So we’ve got some ideas both merchandising driven as well as marketing and as we gave you guidance for 2015, we are expecting the same trend in Q4 as we did last year and as those initiatives play out we’ll look at those as upside that and bake them into our forecast.
Operator
Operator
And we will look our next question from Paul Trussell of Deutsche Bank.
Tiffany Kanaga
Management
This is Tiffany Kanaga on for Paul. I was hoping you could talk a little bit more specifically about you might be thinking about retooling merchandising and marketing for holiday this year? You’ve already mentioned TV ads but is there other things you’re considering? And then on the topic of the TV ads, are you finding that you need to build a lot of brand awareness or is it more a matter of driving trips and build royalty?
Joel Anderson
Management
Tiffany I am not going to go into the specifics of our individual strategies we have planned for the fourth quarter. I think we've really shared a lot of detail today of not only in 2015 but what we’re thinking about in 2016 for making strategic investments in people and systems and infrastructure. We’ve got new leadership in merchandising and Michael Romanko and all these initiatives coupled together should have a positive impact on Q4. As far as the marketing piece we think it’s largely brand awareness more than anything else. I just want to reiterate Tiffany this business is not broken, we can go to market better and we can do better, but as I shared with you in my prepared remarks we’re really excited about 2015 and 2016 and that’s why you see us continue accelerate the number of stores that we’re opening and can give you a forecast as what we see for earnings growth into 2016.
Operator
Operator
And we will take our next question from Christian Buss with Credit Suisse.
Christian Buss
Management
If we could talk a little bit about some longer term question. If I am looking at the EBIT margin performance post IPO, we’re now below the level achieved in fiscal '12 and we've got runways for expansion but I’d love to know how you think about the revenue growth and the earnings growth algorithm longer term, what is the opportunity here that we’re playing from margin and earnings standpoint?
Ken Bull
Management
Yes Christian I think Joel had mentioned that and getting out there around 2016 obviously we gave you our guidance for 2015. But looking at it in kind of broader terms, looking at sales and top line growth of that 20 plus percent and then as we get into '16 to be able to see operating margin expansion, leverage on the investments that we’ve spoken about for '15 and that we made and to see that 25 plus percent net income EPS growth in '16, that’s kind of how we’re, that’s how we’re thinking about it how Joel has mentioned that also.
Operator
Operator
And we will take our next question from Stephen Grambling with Goldman Sachs.
Stephen Grambling
Management
Maybe just a follow up on the last one, could you provide a little bit more detail on the timing and components of the ERP implementation. And maybe even clarify whether the later steps have a smaller investment or you’re just lapping over some of the initial, so that’s where you expect to leverage in '16?
Joel Anderson
Management
Yes, I think the timing is you know the planning system will be implemented mid this year and we’ll begin work on the financial system to have that in place early next year and then followed by the larger ERP. I think we delivered the risk on the ERP system by doing it in incremental chunks like we explained in my opening remarks and feel really good about the steps we’re taking towards getting a larger ERP implementation put in place.
Operator
Operator
And we will take our next question from Vincent Sinisi of Morgan Stanley.
Vincent Sinisi
Management
Just want to ask you guys about the TV advertizing specifically. I know that during the fourth quarter some limited tests, but can you give further color around how those particular markets performed from a category standpoint, if they saw similar to the overall results where you had the two softer categories and then you had a few stronger as well.
Joel Anderson
Management
I'll tell you the goal of the TV tests wasn’t about moving a category it was about the box. And what we saw almost across every market we tested TV in was a movement in not only comp but in brand awareness. In fact the brand awareness moved significantly faster than the rest of the chain. And that was one of the areas that we’re most encouraged but we saw an immediate impact in comp as well in every TV market we tested. And quite honestly like I said it wasn’t about the differences in category, it’s about exposing more people to the Five Below brand and getting them excited about what Five Below is. We continue and we've had four years running now of our customer satisfaction scores continuing decline and that just bodes well for as we expose this brand to more customers they’re going to enjoy the brand as much as our current customers do. So we got enough of a reading at Q4 test that we’re going to expand it in Q4 this year but also look at testing it in Q2 of this year. So you can expect in future calls for us to continue to talk about what we’re doing in brand awareness as we continue to expand these digital tests.
Operator
Operator
And we will take our final question from Patrick McEver of MKM Partners.
Patrick McEver
Management
Joel you mentioned just speeding up the checkout process I think in your prepared comments, so I was wondering if you’d provide a little more color on that, and I would think that would be a huge area of opportunity particularly during the holidays but also during your grand openings when you’ve got lines stretching really to the back of the store and just I got to think that some customers walk away because they don’t want to stand in line. So I’m wondering if you do something like maybe I think you can’t probably can’t add any more checkouts but could you maybe do something with iPads like some retailers do and maybe do more of a kind of a mobile checkout process is that something you looked at.
Joel Anderson
Management
Patrick isn’t that a great problem to have, too many people in our stores right and it’s why I called it out. We know our customers don’t like lines and we know that we lose some sales when the lines are too long and so the store operating team is working diligently on improving that. Certainly we’re looking at ideas like mobile checkout as you were talking about but candidly we can do stuff with line busting and more cashiers helping with bagging et cetera, but it is our goal to reduce the lines that you see in our stores. Certainly grand opening is one aspect but I'm honestly more concerned with the ongoing day-to-day. Our customers want to come in our stores they love our stores as destination and we want to keep making that experience better in the stores and reducing lines as one of those ways that we can do it especially in that all important fourth quarter where we think we can do more sales.
Operator
Operator
And this does conclude today's question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call back to our moderator for any additional or closing remarks.
Joel Anderson
Management
No, that’s great. Thanks operator. Thanks everyone for getting on the call today. As you can tell we're really excited about '15 and the runway for '16 and have work to share with you a lot of information about this exciting opportunity of Five Below. Thanks and have a great day.
Operator
Operator
And this does conclude today's conference call. Thank you again for your participation and have a wonderful day.