James Leonard
Analyst · Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is open.
Yes. So Mike, it's Jamie. On the commercial side, I think what you see is what you get, it's pretty straightforward, and there was a slight uptick in the charge offs, but it was offset by the improvement we saw on the consumer side. And so I think the heart of your question is how good is the consumer in this environment, given both the government support plus the support we've given customers that have requested it for the forbearance and payment deferrals. So when you look at our portfolio on the consumer side, Tayfun mentioned a couple of items. If you exclude mortgage because those were six months, and you look at the non-mortgage loans, only 12% have re-enrolled in additional hardship relief. And through last Friday, we've had over half of our original deferrals, they've come off the program. So I think that's one good data point. We initially expected that number to be as high as 30%. So the fact that we're experiencing 12% shows us both the government support plus the overall health of the consumer is perhaps a little bit better than we expected. The other data point I would point you to is for Fifth Third, in particular, Moody's published a study July 7th, and they evaluated the MSAs most-impacted by COVID. They used number of COVID cases, population density, tourism, global connectedness, et cetera. And the national average weighted by GDP was 0.31, and this was on a scale-up to 2.0 where we're playing golf, so lower is better. Our score for our consumer portfolio is 0.12. So we're 60% better than the national average. And so I think there's a lot of hard work going on in our consumer portfolio. We stopped the 90-day offers at the end of June. And really, we're working to move to the top of the customer payment priority and I think ultimately, between the geographic diversification we have, the overall credit quality of the book, you see in the FICO scores plus our revamped hardship programs, I think we're getting a good view that the consumer is doing better. And in fact, so much so that the second half of 2020, we expect our consumer charge-offs to be below the second half of 2019.