Tayfun Tuzun
Analyst · Bank of America. Your line is open
Thanks, Kevin. Good morning and thanks for joining us. I will start with the financial summary on page 3 of the presentation. We reported net income to common shareholders of $292 million or $0.36 per diluted share. There were several items that affected earnings in the quarter, as Kevin mentioned. The largest was the $97 million non-cash impairment charge related to the changes in our branch network that we announced in June. We also had a positive Vantiv warrant valuation mark of $14 million this quarter. These two items had a net negative impact of $0.07 per share. I will comment on the branch announcement at the end of the discussion of our operating trends and metrics. With that, let’s move to the average balance sheet and page 4 of the presentation. The stronger loan activity we had in the second half of first quarter carried throughout the second quarter. Average portfolio loan balances increased $1.7 billion from the first quarter driven by increases in C&I, commercial construction and residential mortgage balances. Specifically, our C&I balances were up 3% on an average basis. Loan growth metrics reflect the results of our team’s focus on growing our existing relationships as well as selecting new clients that meet our return profile within our risk tolerance levels. Although our payouts were higher than the first quarter, our loan production this quarter was very strong across all industries except energy. In total, our second quarter production was the highest in the last five quarters. The average credit rating for this quarter’s production pool was the highest of the last five quarters as well. There is no let down in competition but we are confident that our client retention and selection efforts are supportive of loan growth. New production coupons are lower, to a certain extent in line with better credit quality. At the same time, our payoff coupons were also lower than the first quarter indicative of events-related rather than refi-related balance. Line utilization was flat. Average commercial mortgage balances were down 1% as we continue to see refinancing activity of our legacy book. Commercial construction lending remained strong. Growth in multifamily and industrial commercial construction remained strong with 75% of production coming from within our footprint. Our new commitments, net of prepayment activity should support second half loan growth in this portfolio. In the second quarter, average investment securities increased by $4.2 billion or 18% sequentially reflecting the full quarter impact of our first quarter purchases and $2 billion of additional securities during the second quarter. On an end-of-period basis, we added $1.5 billion of securities. We saw very strong deposit growth throughout 2014. And as we expected, that continued in the first half of 2015. Average core deposits increased $2.3 billion from the first quarter driven by growth in demand deposit and money market accounts. Moving to NII on page 5 of the presentation, taxable equivalent net interest income increased $40 million sequentially to $892 million, primarily driven by the faster than anticipated deployment of cash into earning asset growth and lower deposit costs. NII has also positively impacted by $7 million due to an extra day in the quarter. The net interest margin was 290 basis points, up 4 basis points from the first quarter driven by a 6-basis point benefit due to the faster than anticipated deployment of cash that I mentioned, 3 basis points due to better funding rates including the continued rationalization of deposit rates, partially offset by 4 basis points of loan yield compression and 1-basis point decrease primarily due to day-count. Shifting to fees on page 6 of the presentation. Second quarter non-interest income was $556 million compared with $630 million in the first quarter. Results included the $97 million impairment charge related to the changes in the branch network and the $14 million positive mark on the Vantiv warrant that I mentioned earlier. First quarter results included a $70 million positive mark on the Vantiv warrant, a $37 million gain on the sale of the residential TDRs and a $30 million-impairment associated with aircraft leases. Quarterly results also included charges on the Visa total return swap of $2 million in the current quarter and $17 million last quarter. Excluding these items in both quarters, fee income of $641 million increased $71 million or 12% sequentially with broad-based increases in almost all categories led by increases in corporate banking revenue and mortgage banking net revenue. Adjusted fee income was 42% of revenue in the second quarter. Excluding the impact of the $30 million aircraft lease residual impairment in the first quarter, corporate banking fees increased $20 million sequentially due to improvement in institutional sales revenue and higher syndication fees. Syndication activity was better this quarter than last and we had a strong quarter in corporate bond fees. Total risk management fees which include our interest rates, foreign exchange and derivative businesses were stable. Card and processing revenue increased 8% sequentially and 1% from the second quarter of 2014 as we continue to benefit from an increase in the number of actively used cards. Mortgage banking net revenue of $117 million was up 36% sequentially. Originations increased to $2.5 billion from $1.8 billion in the first quarter. Gain on sale margins were down 39 basis points to 288 basis points. We had a good quarter in mortgage servicing revenues. Net servicing asset valuation adjustments which include amortization and valuation adjustments were positive $18 million this quarter versus negative $17 million last quarter. Deposit service charges increased 3% from the first quarter and were flat relative to the second quarter of 2014. Total investment advisory revenue of $105 million decreased 3% sequentially due to higher tax related private client service revenue in the first quarter partially offset by an increase in securities and brokerage fees and increased 3% from the second quarter last year. Within investment advisory revenue, personal asset management fees were up 5% while brokerage fees were up 8% from the second quarter of 2014. We show non-interest expense on page 7 of the presentation. Expenses were higher in the quarter in-line with our expectations and came in at $947 million compared with $923 million in the first quarter. The sequential increase was impacted by higher revenue base incentive compensation and long-term incentives in the second quarter as well as an increase of $2 million in severance. Overall, our first half comp related expenses were 2.3% higher than the comp related expenses for the first half of 2014. Included in our expense total, is also a $6-million sequential quarter change in the provision expense related to unfunded commitments in-line with the broader directional move in provision. The sequential comparison also exaggerates the expense growth as the first quarter benefited from a settlement of a tax liability related to prior years. These were partially offset by a decrease in FICA and unemployment tax expense recorded in quarterly benefits which are seasonally high in the first quarter. I will spend more time on expenses in our outlook section. Turning to credit results on page 8. Total net charge-offs of $86 million or 37 basis points as a percentage of average loans decreased $5 million sequentially. Non-performing assets excluding loans held for sale were $626 million at quarter end, down $65 million from the first quarter bringing the NPL ratio to 51 basis points and the NPA ratio to 67 basis points. Commercial NPAs decreased $45 million sequentially primarily due to a $23 million decline in C&I and $20 million decline in commercial mortgage. Consumer NPAs decreased $20 million from the first quarter driven by $12 million decline in residential mortgage and $5 million decline in home equity NPAs. Our energy portfolio declined to $1.7 billion and the quality of the firms we have relationships with remains very good. The portfolio was reduced by $155 million from the first quarter, of which approximately 50% relates to reserve based lending. Utilization in the portfolio declined 3% as companies continue to access capital markets to bolster their balance sheets. There were some negative ratings migration but not material in the context of the overall portfolio. We continue to be comfortable with our portfolio from a loss given the full perspective, with appropriate collateral, liquidity, cash flow and reserve coverage levels. In our RBL portfolio, we are a senior secured lender with in many cases significant levels of subordinated risks ahead of the bank’s position. Of this $66 million in NPA in-flows only $11 million related to the energy portfolio. Also, SNC results were communicated to banks in the second quarter and while I won’t get further into specifics or material impacts from the exam are included in our results in the second quarter. Wrapping up on credit, the allowance for loan and lease losses declined $7 million compared with $22 million decline last quarter. Provision coverage of net charge-offs increased to 92% from 76% last quarter and reserve coverage decreased to 1.39% of loans and leases. Virtually, all of our credit metrics continue to improve as we move into the second half of 2015. Looking at capital on slide 9. Capital levels continue to be strong and well above regulatory requirements. The common equity tier-1 ratio was 9.4%. At the end of the second quarter, the average diluted share count was down another 1% sequentially. During the quarter, we announced common stock repurchases of $155 million. The ASR settlement is expected to occur on or before July 28 and reduced the second quarter share count by 6.7 million shares. Now, a few comments about our announced retail branch actions and our perspectives on the current environment before we move to our outlook section. As we’ve been discussing with you for the last couple of years, our retail franchise has performed very well in this challenging environment, and we’ve been very proactive in adapting to the changing demographics, and our customers’ usage of new technologies. After executing a successful deposit simplification strategy in 2012 and 2013, we have been optimizing our branch FTE count by both reducing service employees as well as reinvesting in sales associates. These changes not only enabled us to optimize our expenses but also help improve our customer service levels and align our service channels with our customers’ preferences. Up until this quarter, our branch count has been fairly stable. But given these changes a deeper review of our branch network was conducted during the second quarter which led to the planned reduction of our branch count by 105. We use the scorecard with over 50 variables in accessing our network, including production volumes and trends, transaction volumes and trends and overlaps among others. We will be executing this strategy over the next 12 months. We’ve taken $97 million impairment charge related to the owned branches and land which is $12 million higher than our June announcement. The incremental impairment charge we booked was due to the addition of a handful of additional locations and the receipt of actual appraisals. Our annualized expense benefit is also greater given the higher number of branches than originally announced. We will identify the expense impact related to the lease branches for you as they flow through our numbers over the next six months based on the closing date of those branches. We expect to fully execute this strategy by mid-2016 and thus expect the reduction to impact our expense totals on a run-rate basis during the second half of the next year. Between now and then, we will continue to update you as to the progress of the project. But at this time, I’m not ready to share more details with you regarding geographies and timing as I know you’ll understand, I would like to preserve our ability to execute the plan as efficiently as possible. On a fully annualized basis, we expect to lower our expenses by $65 million once the entire action is executed which is $5 million better than originally announced. Our management team is keenly focused on capturing a significant portion of these expense savings in our bottom line, but we are also anticipating a portion of the savings to be reinvested in the business to continue to build our digital channel platforms not only for retail but for our entire company. These investments are designed to provide further opportunities to improve our cost efficiencies and improve our customer service as well as support revenue growth. We will be sharing our reinvestment plans with you as we finalize our strategic studies. I want to reemphasize our management team’s focus on expense management especially as the expense carry of the risk and compliance structures in our sector continues to ramp up. The types of strategic actions that we are currently evaluating are long-term oriented actions, very clearly focused on building our company to achieve our revenue growth and operational excellence objectives in recognition of the evolution and technology, demographic changes and required infrastructure designs in the current regulatory environments. Turning to the outlook and a few comments on the third quarter. Thus far we’ve maintained and communicated a realistic perspective on the economy and the overall market conditions and shared our outlook with you on that basis. This perspective enabled us to react appropriately to market driven opportunities to support our asset growth and earnings. Our updated outlook is not materially different than what we provided in January and again in April. We continue to feel comfortable with our full-year NII expectations. As a reminder, we have one rate increase assumption in the fourth quarter as we have discussed in April. We have and will continue to actively manage our balance sheet to adapt to changing macroeconomic and Fed policy expectations. We don’t have any underlying assumptions related to swap activity built into our NII outlook and we have fairly modest levels of swaps relative to peers. We do still expect our NII to grow year-over-year excluding the deposit advance impact. And for the third quarter we expect NII to be slightly higher than the second driven primarily by loan growth and day-count. At this time, we also expect NII to growth in Q4 over the third quarter levels. As we discussed in April, we expect our NIM to be stable during the year from the first quarter levels. We’ve outperformed our NIM expectations this quarter so we don’t expect our NIM to widen further from here in the third quarter. And our overall NIM during the second half should be stable with our first half NIM which is 2.88%. Third quarter corporate banking fees tend to be seasonally low with a stronger fourth quarter, which should elevate the second half totals in corporate fees over the first half totals. Our current expectation is that mortgage banking production net revenue will be somewhat below the second quarter levels but above last year’s third quarter. The servicing revenues will be a function of the rate environment. Excluding the mortgage servicing revenues we expect a strong second half in total fee income but following seasonal trends with a stable third quarter and a strong fourth quarter. Overall, fee trends look positive for the second half. On the expense side, as we discussed, we are continuing to invest in our businesses and infrastructure. And those investments will further increase our employee expenses primarily in our risk and compliance functions. In addition, our investments in cyber security and fraud areas will build a safer environment for us as well as for our customers. For the second half, I expect that our total compensation expenses will be relatively flat including employee benefits and incentive comp for business activity. In addition, during this phase, third party expenses tend to be more elevated. Some of these expenses are clearly not permanent. You have seen these types of increases from other banks depending upon where they are in the cycle. We expect higher payment processing expenses as a good portion of those are directly tied to payment activity. In addition, as we discussed with you earlier in the year, we will see an up-tick in EMV related expenditures which will reduce risks going forward. Technology investments will continue to increase. We expect our IT expenses during the second half to be about 10% higher than the first half. As I discussed earlier, we are making long-term strategic decisions and investing in our franchise. We also want to make sure that we allocate the priorities smartly between IT projects that are targeted for risk and compliance infrastructure and those that are targeted for direct business related purposes such as digital technology. We believe that we cannot approach these investments in a sequential manner and therefore investing on these two-paths simultaneously. Simply stated, we cannot afford to delay our technology investments in our businesses as the environment is changing fast. Overall, our core expenses will increase next quarter relative to the second quarter. The predominant driver will be marketing as we expect a seasonal up-tick in the third quarter related to our planned campaign, excluding any one-time items in the second half such as the lease termination expenses related to the branch optimization announcement or other one-time expenses. Our total expenses during the next two quarters should be approximately 2.5% higher than our first half expenses. As we discussed, our expense adjustments related to the branch strategy shows we are very focused on long-term expense drivers and will take decisive strategic actions to maximize the performance of our company both in terms of revenues and expenses. Turning to credit, we still expect minimal benefit from ALLL releases due to loan growth and the associated higher levels of provisioning. Our fundamental credit performance should remain at historically low levels given the current environment. We also would like to remind you that the revenue expectations that we shared with you total do not include potential and currently un-forecasted items such as Vantiv warrant marks or gains on share sales. With that, let’s open the line for questions. Angel?