Bryan Preston
Analyst · Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America. Your line is now open. Please go ahead
Thanks, Tim, and good morning. Our second quarter results reflect a core franchise that kept compounding and the earnings power of the combined company beginning to show through in the margin, the fee lines, and the expense discipline. The comparisons to the prior quarters remain distorted by the acquisition. Let me review the key themes in two parts. First, our organic engine kept executing, and second, Comerica broadened the runway ahead of us. Starting with our organic performance, net interest income and margin show the benefits of the continued disciplined execution in addition to the acquisition benefits. Net interest income was $2.22 billion, and net interest margin expanded 6 basis points sequentially to 3.36%. The margin move breaks down cleanly. The additional month of Comerica contributed 3 basis points, and the remaining expansion came from the continued benefit of fixed-rate asset repricing, loan growth, and deposit performance. Loan growth was broad-based and granular. Period-end portfolio loans of $179 billion grew 1% sequentially, with commercial loans up $2 billion or 2% on production across middle market and corporate banking. Line utilization was stable at 40.8%, flat with the first quarter. Clients remained active despite continued market volatility. Shared national credits remain a modest 26% of total loans, consistent with our focus on granularity. In addition, our Provide fintech platform grew loans approximately 4% sequentially. We are realizing the benefits from expanding Provide's leading digital experience in practice finance into a broader small business lending platform, where we have moved from number 31 in SBA lending nationally a year ago to number 15 today. Period-end consumer loans grew steadily, with the mix continuing to shift. Home equity balances increased 3% sequentially, and we were the number one originator of home equity lines across our legacy footprint. This growth maintains the same credit discipline, with an average FICO of 774 and a loan-to-value ratio of 63%. Given the rate outlook, we expect continued momentum in this product where we have been building share. Our funding discipline shows in the deposit book where we saw granular deposit growth and well-controlled deposit costs. Average core deposits were $229 billion in the quarter, and period-end core deposits were $231 billion. We remain focused on improving the composition of our deposit base towards our long-term goal of retail deposits contributing 60% of our core deposits. During the second quarter, consumer deposits grew nearly $5 billion and offset the intentional reduction of higher cost non-relationship deposits and normal seasonality in commercial. The $2.5 billion of consumer deposit growth in the Southwest that Tim described was a meaningful driver of that growth and reflects early traction in our newer markets. Average non-interest-bearing balances were 28% of core deposits, up from 25% a year ago, reflecting Comerica's commercial DDA franchise and our own consumer DDA growth. On a legacy Fifth Third basis, households grew 3% over the past year and, as Tim highlighted, even faster in the Southeast markets, translating into 5% consumer DDA growth, reflecting relationship-based, not rate-driven growth. Total deposit costs fell 4 basis points sequentially to 1.54%, a favorable outcome relative to industry trends. Interest-bearing deposit costs also improved, down 2 basis points sequentially. Our balance sheet management posture is unchanged. We prioritize granular insured deposit funding, and we continue to hold meaningful liquidity buffers. We maintained a Category 1 LCR ratio of 107% and a loan-to-core deposit ratio of 77%. We have and will continue to actively manage our overall funding costs through pricing and mix, a discipline that has allowed us to expand NIM this quarter while continuing to fund growth. The fee business performance carried the same breadth with not one line, but three delivering solid outcomes. The same three that we have invested in for years, and the returns are compounding. Adjusted non-interest income, excluding security gains and other items listed on page four of the release, was $1.04 billion. Wealth and Asset Management revenue was $256 million on higher personal asset management fees and favorable market performance. Total assets under management were $128 billion. On a legacy Fifth Third basis, AUM was $85 billion, up 16% from the prior year. Within Wealth, Fifth Third Securities continued its momentum with retail brokerage revenue up 18% from the prior year. Commercial payments revenue was $254 million, led by strength in Newline and core treasury services. As Tim noted, Newline fee revenue was up 35% compared to the prior year, and related deposits were $5.3 billion, an increase of $2.1 billion from the prior year. Direct Express contributed $22 million in fee income with average deposits of $3.7 billion in the quarter. Capital markets fees were $154 million on client financial risk management and loan syndication activity, an annualized pace in line with the $600 million run rate Tim described. Now to expenses, where the benefits from Comerica and the integration progress are already being realized. Total adjusted non-interest expense of $1.86 billion was better than our expectations as we continue to realize synergy benefits ahead of schedule. Page five of our release details the certain items that had the largest impact on non-interest expense this quarter. Primarily, $203 million in merger-related charges. The full $850 million of annualized run rate expense synergies is on track for the fourth quarter with systems conversion over Labor Day weekend the next major step. Given that conversion timing, we expect to realize the majority of the remaining synergy benefits in the fourth quarter. The adjusted efficiency ratio was 57.1%, a strong improvement from the first quarter, and we remain confident in achieving a run rate efficiency target of 53%. On credit, trends were benign and improving. The net charge-off ratio improved 7 basis points sequentially to 30 basis points at the bottom of our range and the lowest level since the second quarter of 2023. Commercial net charge-offs were 21 basis points, down 5 basis points sequentially, with stable trends across industries and geographies despite the continued market volatility. Consumer net charge-offs were 53 basis points, down 5 basis points sequentially. Consumer delinquency trends remained stable. Non-performing assets were relatively stable, up 3 basis points from the first quarter. Commercial criticized assets decreased during the quarter. Where we grow is a choice and so is where we don't. Our exposure to non-depository financial institutions is approximately 7% of total loans, well below the industry average. Concentrated in subscription and capital call facilities, corporate facilities to traditional financial institutions, and secured lending to mortgage-related entities. In each of these areas, we have deep underwriting history and structural protections that provide significant loss absorption before we would recognize a dollar of loss. On private credit, our loan growth does not rely on lending to private credit vehicles and business development companies, which together are less than 1% of total loans. A deliberate decision given the structural complexity that is harder to assess through a cycle. On software and data center lending, we believe in the long-term demand for AI infrastructure but have stayed selective. At less than 1% of total loans, that exposure is intentionally limited and performing in line with expectations. The ACL ratio ended at 1.76% of portfolio loans, down 3 basis points sequentially, reflecting continued strength in the risk profile of our book, particularly in C&I lending. Provision of $129 million was down $98 million from the prior quarter, which included an $83 million day one CECL bill for Comerica-acquired non-PCD and non-PSL loans. Our baseline and downside economic cases assume unemployment reaching 4.6% and 8.5%, respectively, in 2027, consistent with the prior quarter scenarios. We made no changes to our macroeconomic scenario weightings during the quarter. Moving to capital, CET1 ended the quarter at 9.93%, an increase of 4 basis points sequentially, despite strong period and loan growth and absorbing $175 million of after-tax charges related to the merger and other items. Our CET1 ratio, including the AOCI impact of our securities portfolio, was 8.7%. Tangible common equity, including AOCI, improved to 7.3%. We expect continued improvement in the unrealized losses in our securities portfolio, given the bullet locked-out structure, as approximately 55% of the fixed-rate securities in our AFS portfolio have a defined principal repayment schedule. A portfolio construction choice that gives us a high degree of certainty around the timing of the AOCI accretion back into capital. There was no share repurchase activity in the first half of the year. Moving to our current outlook. Our outlook reflects the forward curve at the end of June, which assumes a 25 basis point rate hike in September. Given the updated rate outlook and actions we took during the quarter, we are increasing our full year NII guidance to a range of $8.74 billion-$8.8 billion. Those actions, repositioning $4.5 billion of securities and adding $3 billion of forward starting received fixed swaps as a cash flow hedge on our commercial loan portfolio added to the NII outlook while beginning to reduce our asset sensitivity. We are refining our average loan guidance range to $174 billion-$176 billion. As a reminder, the average balance for the year will only include 11 months of Comerica. We are raising and narrowing our full year non-interest income guidance to a range of $4.06 billion-$4.16 billion, reflecting continued growth in commercial payments, capital markets, and wealth and asset management. We are also lowering and narrowing our full year non-interest expense guidance to a range of $7.22 billion-$7.26 billion. This outlook excludes acquisition-related charges. Taken together, our guidance implies full year adjusted PPNR growth of more than 40% versus 2025, including the impact of CDI amortization. We remain on track to exit 2026 at profitability and efficiency levels consistent with our 2027 targets. For credit, we expect second half net charge-offs of 30-35 basis points, which would place our full year performance in the bottom half of our 30-40 basis points range. Turning to capital, our CET1 operating target is 10%-10.5%, and we are effectively there, with capital continuing to build through our earnings power. Our capital priorities remain unchanged. Maintain a strong dividend, support organic growth where we see the highest returns on deployed capital, then return excess capital through share repurchases. Consistent with that approach, we expect to resume regular quarterly repurchase activity in the second half of this year. For the third quarter, we expect NII to grow 2%-2.5% from the second quarter, driven by the continued benefit of fixed rate asset repricing and day count. Average loans are expected to be up approximately 1%, led by growth in C&I, home equity, and auto. Adjusted non-interest income is expected to increase 1%-3%, while adjusted non-interest expense is expected to decrease 1%-2% as expense synergies continue to be realized. The second quarter turned the integration thesis into results. The earnings power of the combined company isn't a forecast anymore. You can see it in the margin, the fee lines, and the expense discipline. The core grew on its own. Comerica widened the runway, with the Labor Day conversion just weeks away, the earnings power is landing on the schedule we set. With that, let me turn it over to Matt to open the call for Q&A.