Daniel T. Poston
Analyst · Todd Hagerman with Sterne Agee
Thanks, Kevin. I'll start today with Slide 4 of the presentation. As Kevin discussed, second quarter results were strong, driven by favorable mortgage banking and corporate banking revenue results, continued expense discipline and lower charge-offs and provision. For the quarter, we reported net income of $385 million and recorded preferred dividends of $9 million. Net income to common shareholders was $376 million and diluted earnings per share were $0.40. Second quarter results included $56 million in gains on Vantiv warrants, or about $0.04 per share on an after-tax basis. Earnings were reduced by $19 million or about $0.02 per share from the seasonal effect of stock options expirations on income taxes. There were a number of other unusual items which we outlined in our release, which more or less offset one another from an earnings perspective. You'll recall that first quarter earnings per share of $0.45 included several income items related to Vantiv, that together contributed a total of $127 million in fee income for the quarter, or about $0.09 per share on an after-tax basis. All in all, we saw good momentum this quarter really across the whole company, which was born out in our earnings results. Taking a look at Slide 5, tax equivalent net interest income increased -- excuse me, decreased $4 million sequentially to $899 million, and the net interest margin decreased 5 basis points to 3.56%, both of those in line with our expectations. The decline in net interest income was primarily driven by asset yield compression in the securities portfolio in the loan book, but was partially offset by the net loan growth. Vantiv's refinancing in March reduced NII by $2 million, and higher purchase accounting incretion increased NII by $2 million. Interest expense declined as a result of lower hedge ineffectiveness and a deposit mix shift into lower yielding products. You'll recall that hedge ineffectiveness increased interest expense last quarter, while we had a benefit of $1 million in the current quarter. The 5 basis point decline in net interest margin during the quarter was in line with our expectations despite the negative impact of the sharp drop in longer-term rates in late May and in June. Margin compression was driven by lower securities and loan yields and partially offset by deposit mix shift and the impact of hedge ineffectiveness on the first quarter. On the loan side, we've seen continued slow compression in yields driven by the loan repricing, particularly in the C&I and auto portfolios. On the C&I side, portfolio average yield was down 7 basis points compared with last quarter. Yields on new originations have remained relatively stable, so the reduction in portfolio yields is largely due to the portfolio effects of repricing and a mix shift toward higher quality loans. On the indirect auto portfolio, portfolio average yield also continued to decline, reflecting both increased competition in this space, as well as the portfolio effect of replacing order higher yielding loans with new lower yielding loans. We will continue to closely manage pricing and loan volumes to ensure that the returns in this space remain appropriate. Looking forward, we currently expect NII in the third quarter to be relatively stable in the $900 million range. On the plus side, our redemption of TRUPs in August will benefit third quarter NII by about $4 million, and day count will add another $5 million or so. Offsetting those benefits will be an estimated $5 million in lower purchase accounting accretion, with the remainder of the decline primarily related to the impact of repricing on the investment securities portfolio. In terms of the margin, we currently expect NIM to decline 2 or 3 basis points in the third quarter. That would reflect about 2 basis points of benefit from the TRUPs redemption, offset by 2 basis point detriment from lower purchase accounting accretion and 1 basis point negative effect of day count. The remaining decline is a couple of basis points, which is largely due to repricing. Our expected -- expectation today would be for NII to be stable or perhaps up modestly in the fourth quarter with margin compression of a few basis points, similar to what we expect in the third quarter. Turning to the balance sheet in Slide 6. Average earning assets increased $1.2 billion sequentially, driven by $1.1 billion of growth in average portfolio loans and a $400 million increase in securities, partially offset by a reduction in loans held for sale. Average securities portfolio balances reflect the pre-investment of portfolio of cash flows during the quarter, as well as higher cash balances held at the Fed, which are included in the short-term investment balance. We would expect average security to be down modestly in the third quarter, but to remain fairly stable in light of the current rate environment and outlook. Average portfolio loans and leases increased $1.1 billion sequentially, driven by higher C&I and residential mortgage balances. Average loans held for sale were down $337 million during the quarter, driven by decreased residential mortgage warehouse balances. Looking at each portfolio. Average commercial loans held for investment increased $973 million sequentially, or 2%, and $3.3 billion, or 8%, year-over-year. C&I loans increased to $32.7 billion, a 4% increase from last quarter and a 17% increase from a year ago. Our C&I production continues to be strong and has been broad-based across industries and sectors. Demand continues to be strongest in the large corporate and mid-corporate space, although refinance activity into the capital markets by these borrowers in the second quarter reduced growth somewhat. Commercial line utilization remained at 32% this quarter, which is consistent with last quarter. Given our strong levels of production and pipelines, we expect continued solid C&I growth in the second half of the year. Commercial mortgage and commercial construction balances declined in the aggregate by $316 million sequentially, or 3%. We've seen most of the run off that we expect to see in these portfolios, and thus, they shouldn't be much of a drag on commercial loan growth as we go forward. Average consumer loans in the portfolio increased $113 million sequentially and $1.3 billion compared to a year ago. Residential mortgage loans held for investment were up 4% sequentially. The sequential growth reflect the strong originations during the quarter due to the rate environment and the continued retention of jumbo loans and certain shorter-term high-quality residential mortgages originated through our branch retail system. Average auto loan balances declined 1% sequentially, as we managed volume and pricing in that business over the last several months. As I mentioned earlier, we reduced our origination volumes for competitive reasons where the profit potential wasn't there. Home-equity loans were down 2% sequentially, and average credit card balances were down slightly due to seasonality. Looking ahead to the third quarter, we expect loan growth to be driven by continued solid growth in C&I loans as well as the mortgage portfolio. Moving on to deposits. We continue to manage our deposit book by focusing on higher value transaction deposits while managing non-relationship deposit accounts down. In total, average core deposits increased $294 million from the first quarter. Average transaction deposits, which exclude consumer CDs, were up 1% sequentially and 9%, or $6 billion, from a year ago. Growth in transaction deposits was largely driven by interest checking balances, which were up 6% from the prior quarter and 26% from a year ago. Consumer CDs continue to decline down $192 million in the quarter, driven by our continued disciplined approach to CD pricing. For the quarter -- for the third quarter, we currently expect transaction deposits to be relatively stable compared to the second quarter and for consumer CD balances to continue to decline. Turning to fees, which are outlined on Slide 7. Second quarter noninterest income was $678 million, a decrease of $91 million from last quarter, which benefited from the effect of Vantiv's IPO. There were a number of items that affected each quarter. Second quarter results included a $56 million positive valuation adjustment on Vantiv warrants, as well as $17 million in charges related to the VISA total return swap, $17 million negative valuation adjustments on property held for sale. Net investment securities gains were $3 million in the quarter. First quarter results included $127 million in net benefits related to Vantiv's IPO and warrants, $19 million in VISA charges and $9 million in securities gains. Excluding those items from both quarters, fee income of $653 million was up $1 million from a pretty strong first quarter; underlying fee results included another strong quarter in mortgage banking revenue, which was down slightly from the first quarter; a 9% increase in card and processing revenue; and a 5% increase in corporate banking revenue. Looking at each item or each line item in detail. Deposit service charges increased 1% sequentially and 4% from the prior year. Sequential comparison was driven by a 2% increase in commercial deposit fees and a 1% decline in consumer deposit fees. The year-over-year comparison reflected a 7% increase in commercial deposit fees largely due to new customer account growth, which was partially offset by 1% decline in consumer deposit fees. For the third quarter, we expect to see a slight decline in deposit fees, which includes the effect of our elimination in June of daily overdraft fees and continuing customer overdraft issues. Investment advisory revenue decreased 4% from last quarter and 2% on a year-over-year basis. Sequential decline is largely due to the first quarter positive seasonality and trust tax-preparation fees, otherwise, revenues reflected overall market valuation trends and the effects of market volatility on customer activity. We currently expect investment advisory revenue to be stable to modestly higher in the third quarter. Corporate banking revenue of $102 million increased 5% from the first quarter and 7% from last year. Sequential increase was driven by higher foreign exchange, institutional sales and interest rate derivative revenue. We expect third quarter corporate banking revenue of about $100 million, consistent with the strong second quarter levels. Card and processing revenue was $64 million, up $5 million from the first quarter and down $25 million from a year ago. The year-over-year decline was driven by the impact of debit interchange legislation, which cost us about $30 million on a quarterly basis. That was partially offset by increased transaction volumes and mitigation activity in this line item. The sequential increase was driven by higher transaction volumes, which is more reflective of the growth in this business. We expect transaction volumes to drive continued growth in card and processing revenue during the third quarter. Mortgage banking net revenue of $183 million declined $21 million from the near record levels in the first quarter, but increased $21 million from a year ago. Originations were $5.9 billion this quarter versus $6.4 billion in the first quarter. Gain on sale margins were wider in the second quarter, reflecting market trends and a higher proportion of retail channel and HARP originations. As a result, gains on deliveries were $183 million, up $9 million from the previous quarter. MSR valuation adjustments, including hedges, were a negative $22 million this quarter versus a positive $15 million in the first quarter. Currently, we would expect mortgage banking revenue to be up about $10 million or so in the second quarter, with gains on deliveries similar to our strong second quarter levels and with lower MSR valuation adjustments. We expect deliveries to increase modestly and margins to be slightly lower. Turning next to other income within fees. Other income was $103 million this quarter versus $175 million last quarter. Second quarter results included the $56 million Vantiv warrant gain, the $17 million valuation adjustment on VISA total return swap and the $17 million valuation adjustment on bank premises held for sale. First quarter results included net benefits related to Vantiv's IPO and warrants of $127 million and a $19 million charge on VISA total return swap. Exclude these items, other income was $81 million compared with $67 million in the first quarter. Credit costs recorded in other noninterest income were $17 million in the second quarter compared with $14 million last quarter. We expect third quarter credit costs and revenue to be down modestly. Looking at overall fee income expectations for the third quarter. We currently expect fee income in the $670 million range, plus or minus, up about $15 million from the second quarter, excluding the significant items that I discussed earlier. Our outlook does not include any assumption with respect to the Vantiv warrant, which is a mark-to-market asset. The $56 million gain we recognized in the second quarter was driven primarily by a $3.60 increase in Vantiv stock price during the quarter, and that relationship should produce a decent estimate of changes in our valuation, if you'd like to track that. Turning to expenses on Slide 8. Noninterest expense of $937 million declined sequentially by $36 million or 4%. Current quarter expenses included a $9 million reduction to the FDIC insurance expense and an $8 million benefit from the sale of affordable housing investments. You'll recall that expenses in the prior quarter included a tax-related benefit of $23 million, offset by $28 million in various other charges. If you exclude these items, noninterest expenses of $954 million were down $14 million. That decrease reflected a $17 million decline in FICA and unemployment expense from seasonally high first quarter levels, partially offset by a $12 million increase in initial marketing costs and support of our new branding campaign that we talked more about in April. Otherwise, expenses were down $9 million, primarily in compensation expense. Credit-related costs and operating expense were $41 million, up $7 million from last quarter and in line with our expectations. Mortgage repurchase expense was $18 million this quarter compared with $15 million last quarter and reflected continued stable loss realization from GSE putback. We expect that to generally continue, although I would note that the GSEs have indicated to us that toward the end of this year, they plan to start requesting files for any loan that is nonperforming. That will likely lead to an increase in repurchase claims and some increase in repurchase expense. However, we expect that overall repurchase expense will continue to remain at relatively manageable levels for us. In terms of the third quarter, we currently expect total credit-related costs recognized and expense to increase about $5 million from the second quarter levels. Overall for the third quarter, we expect core operating expense of about $970 million to $975 million, up about $15 million to $20 million, to $954 million in core expenses this quarter. That increase reflects about $8 million in expected hedging curtailment expense, which is a seasonal item. The remaining increase: in branding-related marketing expense of about $6 million to $7 million, as well as higher mortgage incentive and fulfillment costs. As a reminder, we expect marketing expense to return to more normal levels in the fourth quarter, reducing in expenses by about $15 million from the third quarter levels. Additionally, due to our redemption of TRUPs in August, we will incur about $27 million in net charges due to the hedge termination and the write-off of unamortized debt issuance costs. Those charges will also be recorded in noninterest expense. Moving on to Slide 9, in PPNR. Pre-provision net revenue was $636 million in the second quarter compared with $694 million in the first quarter. Excluding the items listed on the slide, which are also outlined in our release, PPNR in the second quarter was $594 million, up $12 million from the first quarter and about $25 million better than we were anticipating coming into the quarter. We expect third quarter core PPNR to remain strong in the $585 million range, excluding the TRUPs-related charges that I mentioned of $27 million. The effective tax rate for the second quarter was 31.8% due to tax expense of $19 million associated with the expiration of employee stock options during the quarter. We currently expect the effective tax rate to be in the more normal 28.5% range for the third and fourth quarters. Turning to capital, which is outlined on Slide 10. Capital levels continue to be very strong. Tier 1 common increased 13 basis points to 9.8%. Tier 1 capital was 12.3%, up 11 basis points from last quarter, and the total capital ratio was 16.2%, up 17 basis points from the first quarter levels. Tangible common equity was 9.5%, including unrealized gains of $454 million after-tax, and 9.2% if you exclude those. During the quarter, we repurchased $75 million of common shares from our after-tax gains related to the sale of Vantiv shares. This reduced capital ratios by about 7 basis points during the quarter. Looking forward, as we outlined in our release, we are currently evaluating the regulators' notices of proposed rulemaking for capital standards. The proposed rules for capital definitions and required ratios are in line with Basel III and our expectations. The proposed standardized approach contains a number of elements that have not previously been proposed in the U.S. or in Basel. We haven't completed our evaluation and interpretation of these rules, which are subject to comment and to change. However, our initial evaluations suggest that the rules as proposed would increase our risk weighted assets and that our pro forma Tier 1 common ratio will likely be lower than our current Tier 1 common ratio of 9.8%. Whatever the final shape of the rules, we are comfortable that we will continue to have significant excess capital, and that our capital ratios will substantially exceed the new well capitalized minimum and the new buffered minimums, including [indiscernible] of those new regulations. That wraps up my remarks. Now I'll turn it over to Bruce to discuss credit results and trends. Bruce?