Justin Bigham
Analyst · KBW.
Yes, it's a conundrum. We've been, obviously, very cautiously optimistic, as we keep saying about the performance of our book relative to deferrals, et cetera. But we've also been clear that the results of this pandemic have yet to really play out. So if you think about what happened this quarter with the unemployment rate going down, and as you know, national unemployment is our primary loss driver. It drove our quantitative model down. So the quantitative output that we got from our model said that we should be reducing reserves. And, frankly, as a company, we didn't feel comfortable that, that made sense at this point because we didn't feel comfortable that we really knew what things -- how things were going to play out.
We, obviously, still don't know. What we did was we used our -- we already had developed our qualitative factors. They had been in place. And then when we saw this reduced forecast for unemployment, we had to make some adjustments from a qualitative perspective to ensure that we were recognizing the other factors that are driving reserve need outside of those -- that unemployment forecast. And so when we did that, it did help us better understand sort of that our reserve should, in fact, grow. And as you know, it grew by about 4 basis points on the quarter -- 4 or 5 basis points on the quarter.
As far as next quarter is concerned, that's a really difficult one to predict. If unemployment rates go down dramatically from a forecast perspective, it could drive bank's models down so far that it's really difficult to even qualitatively hold the reserve where it is or increase the reserve. So it's just a really difficult thing to project for us just given where unemployment is and where it could go. Having said that, if it does, if forecasts go down that much you would hope that, that's driven by some really good news in the market that will be favorable to our portfolios. So it is difficult to predict. Damon, I appreciate the question. But, unfortunately, that's about all I can give you at this point.