Erik Hoag
Analyst · Baird. Please go ahead
Thanks, Stephanie and thank you for joining us today. This morning, I’d like to dive deeper into the third quarter results, particularly around EBITDA margins, touch on our balance sheet and cash flow metrics and then move to capital allocation and forward-looking commentary. I will begin with our third quarter financial results on Slide 13. As Gary mentioned, revenue increased 5% on an organic basis and adjusted EPS was $1.74, in line with our expectations for the quarter. On a consolidated basis, adjusted EBITDA margin contracted 150 basis points to 43.7% as margin expansion in capital markets and a reduction in corporate expenses was more than offset by contraction in banking and merchant, reflecting a mix of inflationary costs, high-margin pandemic grow-overs and incremental macro headwinds in geographies such as the UK. Turning to our segment results. Banking revenue increased 6% organically with adjusted EBITDA margin contraction of 320 basis points to 42.9%. Margin contraction was primarily driven as high variable costs associated with inflationary pressure, a reduction in pandemic-related revenue and ramping as-a-service deals, which are currently dilutive to segment margins. While these as-a-service deals are currently dilutive, they have aided in our strong banking growth over the past several quarters and will continue to expand margins over time. As expected, termination fees were down compared to the prior year period, but a pull forward on license revenue mostly offset this impact resulting in growth in non-recurring revenue. We have also seen some elongation in sales cycles, particularly for larger deals, where we remain a market leader versus others in the industry. This is negatively impacting both revenue growth and margin in the quarter and we expect this headwind to persist for the remainder of the year. Turning to Merchant Solutions, revenue increased 5% on an organic basis with margin contraction of 430 basis points to 47.4%. Margin contraction was primarily driven by incremental investment in emerging channels as well as macro impacts associated with the UK and Europe, wage inflation and FX. Capital Markets organic growth was 6%, demonstrating the consistency and resiliency of the segment over the last several quarters. Margin expanded by 90 basis points to 49.3%, primarily driven by strong cost discipline and operating leverage within the segment. Turning to Slide 14, in the quarter, we returned approximately $1.3 billion of capital to shareholders, maintained leverage of 2.9x and had a weighted average interest rate of 2%. We generated $684 million of free cash flow, including an approximate $250 million headwind associated with the taxable gain from our cross-currency swaps in the quarter. This resulted in free cash flow conversion of 65%, excluding this impact, free cash flow conversion would have been approximately 84%. Reflecting our year-to-date conversion and outlook for the fourth quarter, we now anticipate free cash flow conversion of approximately 80% for the year. And excluding the tax impact in the third quarter, we would anticipate a more normalized 88% conversion for the year. We anticipate share buyback of approximately $500 million in the fourth quarter as we utilize excess free cash flow to buy back stock. We’re highly focused on improving our free cash flow conversion moving forward, driven by a targeted reduction in capital expenditures aligned with the priorities outlined in the Enterprise transformation program. Turning to Slide 15 for commentary around capital allocation philosophy, as Gary mentioned, we’re putting a heightened focus on the balance sheet given the macroeconomic environment. Said plainly, we no longer anticipate taking out incremental debt in 2023 to fund share repurchase. This will modestly de-lever our enterprise in conjunction with EBITDA growth, further supporting the strength of our balance sheet as a competitive differentiator. We remain committed to our annual dividend growth of 20% plus and continue to believe that a 35% payout ratio is an appropriate target. Beyond our dividend and capital expenditures, share repurchase will be our default use of excess free cash flow, consistent with our historical capital allocation strategy. Turning to Slide 16. We reflecting several incremental and persistent headwinds that Gary, Stephanie and I have discussed throughout the presentation, we’re adjusting our full year 2022 guidance. There are three primary vectors driving the reduction in our outlook for the year. First, we’ve seen incremental macro factors impacting various portions of our revenue streams. Most notable of these macro factors is the recessionary trends within the UK and broader Europe, putting pressure on our merchant volumes within the region. Given the slowing level of bank consolidation due to deteriorating credit markets, we’ve reduced our assumption for termination fees in the quarter. While this is ultimately a benefit to the health of FIS over the longer-term, it’s driving a material reduction to our 2022 expectations. The second vector would be inflation and cost pressures impacting the expense base. This is inclusive of incremental wage, infrastructure and vendor costs. Additionally, while inflation has been an incremental benefit to some revenue streams via price escalators, it has also resulted in higher pass-through revenues, which carry low to zero margin. This has negatively impacted revenue mix and margins. The last vector is associated with sales timing and execution due to continued elongation in our larger transactions, resulting in a push on certain previously forecasted revenues. We also incorporated our third quarter results into this revised outlook compared to original expectations. While the backdrop is challenging, the size of our backlog and concentration of our recurring revenue has allowed us to offset most revenue challenges, however, with a different mix of businesses and margin profiles. We are looking to address these cost pressures through our announced enterprise transformation program that Stephanie discussed earlier, and we believe that longer-term margin expansion remains a staple within our operating model. A key priority of mine and the finance teams will be managing the things inside our control very closely. While we cannot control the macro, we will look to manage the micro across both operating and capital expenditures to drive profitability and incremental cash through the enterprise. Turning to Slide 17 for a summary of our revised guidance. For the year, we now anticipate consolidated revenue of $14.47 billion to $14.52 billion resulting in organic revenue growth of 6% to 7%. Adjusted EBITDA of $6.17 billion to $6.21 billion or margins of 42.6% to 42.8% and adjusted EPS of $6.60 to $6.66. We are proactively de-risking our fourth quarter and full year 2022 guidance to incorporate additional macro deterioration from what our business is currently experiencing. To be clear, our current forecast is above our fourth quarter guide. For banking and capital markets, we are lowering our assumptions associated with high margin non-recurring revenue given decreased visibility. With respect to Merchant, we’re incorporating further consumer challenges across both the UK and, to a lesser extent, the U.S. As the incoming CFO, given the more uncertain backdrop, I think it’s prudent to err on the side of caution as it relates to setting forward expectations. As investors, you should expect this to be my guidance philosophy going forward. Turning to Slide 18. Given the uncertainty in the macro backdrop, we are reassessing our midterm guidance which we will readdress early next year. While it’s premature at this juncture to provide a formal 2023 outlook as it relates to operational performance, I do want to offer some color on several below-the-line assumptions for the purposes of updating your models. Beginning with depreciation and amortization, our current projection is a range of $1.28 billion to $1.32 billion into for the full year 2023. Moving to net interest expense. Assuming the refinancing of maturing debt, our net interest expense would be in the range of $650 million to $700 million for the full year 2023 at current interest rate projections. As economic continues to progress through 2023, if debt reduction becomes a more optimal use of capital over share repurchase will execute accordingly. Presently, we would expect share repurchase to be our back-end loaded in 2023. I expect our effective tax rate to be slightly higher around 15% to 16%, and our period end 2022 share count should be approximately $595 million. At this time, we believe our below-the-line assumptions are in a reasonable range to communicate externally for the upcoming year to assist in modeling our financials. As I wrap up my prepared remarks, I’d be remiss if I did not acknowledge the contributions of my predecessor, Woody Woodall to the company and his mentorship as I now assume leadership of the finance organization. I’ll finish by saying I’m excited for the next chapter of FIS and commit to being a prudent allocator of capital, a disciplined expense manager across the enterprise and a transparent and conservative communicator to the investment community. FIS continues to differentiate through expertise with enterprise merchants and financial institutions, we continue to provide mission-critical capabilities with highly recurring revenue streams and we benefit from a one-to-many operating model to drive underlying margin expansion, all of which we believe will deliver consistent and sustainable results through challenging macroeconomic conditions, driving value to our clients and shareholders for years to come. Thank you again for your time this morning. Operator, will you please open the line for Q&A.