Deborah Ann Cunningham
Analyst · Citigroup
Thanks, Tom. Just giving you some guidance from an outlook perspective about the third quarter and where we stand from a rate perspective. [Audio Gap] versus the second quarter. Right now, we are currently on a 1-month LIBOR basis right around 19 basis points. For most of the second quarter, we were at 20, so down slightly [Audio Gap] basis point similar for 3-months LIBOR currently right around 27 basis points. From the second quarter, it was right around 28. 6- and 12-months LIBOR are up a little bit more, 3 basis points lower from a 6-month LIBOR perspective and 4 basis points lower from a 12-month LIBOR standpoint. Ultimately, giving us a flatter yield curve currently than what we have been dealing with in the first half of the year. Also, detrimental so far in the third quarter as it is the second has been the overnight rate, seasonal rates, basically single digits, and most single digits have been prevalent in the third quarter so far as opposed to what were higher single digits to lower double digits for a portion of the second quarter. Our expectation would be, however, that this improved for a couple different reasons in the third quarter as we enter into the mid-August timeframe. Number one would be from a supply and demand perspective, we expect that the Treasury will need some additional financing and we'll do so in the form of cash management, though, which will essentially bring a little more supply into the marketplace, and as such, improve rates in that process. Secondly, with regard to quantitative leasing, the $85 billion that is currently being purchased on a monthly basis by the New York Fed out of the marketplace in both Treasury and agency, and agency mortgage-backed securities, we do believe will be announced to be cut back or tapered in the context of the market terminology beginning at the September FOMC meeting. We think that will be done sequentially, probably somewhere in the neighborhood of $15 billion to $20 billion cutbacks from us. But, again, that additional supply in back in the marketplace as opposed to being held on the support of the New York Fed, that should really improve their process for a very short-term and overnight rate. We also think that, although Bernanke has been very stressful in telling us that the tapering of quantitative easing is still in an easing process, it's just less than the formal easing. We do think that the market will interpret that to some degree, and as a beginning of an ongoing process, which ultimately should have an impact that can even out the deal curve again, into the second half or the end of 2013, beginning of 2014.