Deborah Ann Cunningham
Analyst · Bulent Ozcan with RBC Capital Markets
When I think about it in the context of the expiration of the unlimited. So it's not as if the insurance expires completely. It goes back to the original level, which was $250,000 per account. So there's some amount that will stay. I agree with Chris that in the large banks, there probably won't be much, if any, movement. But for the smaller banks, there will be still some amount of that, that stays that's underneath that $250,000 limit. In the context of those that will be moving and looking for a different home, they're going to seek characteristics that are similar to what they already have. Those characteristics would be very, very low risk with government backing of some sort, no return, basically, and liquidity in the product. You can get those in the direct securities market through the treasury and agency discount notes sector. Or you can get those through funds that are purchasing those types of securities. And what effectively happens then at that point is, you have a larger demand for that short end yield curve security type that is government backed. And when you have a larger amount of demand with a significantly stable supply, it's very simple, rates go down. It's hard to measure, though -- it's hard to quantify the exact amount, given that we don't know how much will move. We don't know how much will remain. And what does move, we're not exactly sure if it all will go into that sector, that is the short end of the government yield curve. But in any case, if the expiration occurs, we're confident that rates in that short-term treasury agency and mortgage-backed traditional repo market, as well as the direct securities of those notes, will decline in yield from where they are today. So that's one of our reasons for looking at the outlook for repo to go down. But also, we've been very steady on short-term bill rates and short-term agency rates, and we think if in fact QE3 expires from an unlimited – or not QE3, the FDIC insurance expires from an unlimited perspective, we'll see the 9 and 10 basis point 3-month T-Bill rates that have been holding pretty steady also start to decline.