First Financial Bancorp. (FFBC) Q1 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Thank you for standing by. My name is Kate, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the First Financial Bancorp. First Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to turn the call over to Scott Crawley, Corporate Controller. Please go ahead.

Thanks, Kate. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on today's conference call to discuss First Financial Bancorp's first quarter financial results. Participating on today's call will be Archie Brown, President and Chief Executive Officer; Jamie Anderson, Chief Financial Officer; and Bill Harrod, Chief Credit Officer. Both the press release we issued yesterday and the accompanying slide presentation are available on our website at www.bankatfirst.com under the Investor Relations section. We'll make reference to the slides contained in the accompanying presentation during today's call. Additionally, please refer to the forward-looking statement disclosure contained in the first quarter 2026 earnings release as well as our SEC filings for a full discussion of the company's risk factors. The information we will provide today is accurate as of March 31, 2026, and we will not be updating any forward-looking statements to reflect facts or circumstances after this call. I'll now turn the call over to Archie Brown.

Thanks, Scott. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on today's call. Yesterday afternoon, we announced our first quarter results, and I'm very pleased with our overall performance. The first quarter was a busy one as we closed the BankFinancial acquisition, completed the conversion of Westfield Bank and wrapped up the sale of the BankFinancial multifamily loan portfolio. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.77 with an adjusted return on assets of 1.45% and an adjusted return on tangible common equity of 19.2%. Adjusted earnings per share increased 22% compared to the first quarter of last year, driven by a robust net interest margin and strong fee income. Our net interest margin was resilient despite the Fed funds rate cut in December as the expected decline in loan yields was offset by a similar decline in deposit costs. Assuming no short-term rate reductions by the Fed, we expect the margin to remain stable in the near term. Loan balances increased slightly for the quarter due to the BankFinancial acquisition. Excluding the BankFinancial portfolio, loans declined for the quarter as seasonally strong loan production was offset by extended payoff pressure in the ICRE portfolio. Compared to the first quarter of 2025, originations increased approximately 45%. And excluding Westfield and BankFinancial, originations were up by over 25%. Our expectation for loan growth for 2026 has not materially changed. Loan pipelines are very healthy, and we expect strong production in the second quarter. We also expect payoff activity in ICRE to approach more normal levels, leading to solid loan growth in the second quarter. Adjusted fee income was strong for the quarter. Historically, fee income significantly dips early in the year. However, we successfully combated this trend in the first quarter. Adjusted noninterest income was $75.6 million, which was 24% higher than in the first quarter of 2025 and only a slight decline from the linked quarter. These results were driven by record wealth management income, strong client derivative income and record leasing business income. Additionally, expenses were well controlled during the quarter with total noninterest expenses coming in well below our expectations and acquisition-related cost savings exceeding our initial estimates. Net charge-offs were 35 basis points of total loans and were impacted by one large commercial relationship. Other asset quality indicators were stable with nonperforming assets slightly declining from the linked quarter to 44 basis points, while there is certainly more uncertainty in the economy due to the impact of the war in Iran and, our current expectations are for asset quality to gradually improve throughout the year, similar to our performance in 2025. Capital ratios are strong and continued to climb in the first quarter. All regulatory ratios were well in excess of regulatory minimums and the tangible common equity increased to 7.9%. Tangible book value per share was $16.15, which was a 2.6% increase over the linked quarter and a 9% increase compared to the first quarter of 2025. Tangible book value was at approximately the same level as the third quarter of 2025 just prior to the Westfield Bank acquisition. This month, the Board of Directors authorized a $5 million share repurchase plan, replacing the plan we had in place through 2025, and we are evaluating opportunities to employ buybacks as part of our overall capital planning. I'd like to take a minute and discuss our recent acquisitions. During the quarter, we successfully completed the conversion of Westfield Bank. And then for the quarter, Westfield deposit and loan balances were stable, we maintained high associate retention, and we have achieved the financial results that we expected from the transaction to date. We're happy with the quality of the bank we acquired and with the talented team that has joined us. We also completed the purchase of BankFinancial on January 1 and plan to convert systems in early June. We remain excited about the opportunities in the Chicago market and continue to see growth potential from this transaction. Now I'll turn the call over to Jamie to discuss these results in greater detail. And after Jamie, I'll wrap up with some additional forward-looking commentary and closing remarks.

Thank you, Archie, and good morning, everyone. Slides 4, 5 and 6 provide a summary of our most recent financial performance. The first quarter results were excellent and included strong earnings, record revenues driven by a robust net interest margin and higher-than-expected fee income. Our net interest margin remains very strong at 3.99%, increasing 1 basis point during the quarter. Cost of funds declined 13 basis points, while asset yields declined 12 basis points. End-of-period loan balances increased $71 million, which included $228 million acquired in the BankFinancial transaction. This was partially offset by a $152 million decrease in ICRE balances, reflecting the payoff pressure that Archie mentioned earlier. Total average deposit balances increased $1.7 billion, including $1.2 billion acquired in the BankFinancial transaction and the full quarter impact from Westfield. We maintained 20% of our total deposit balances and noninterest-bearing accounts and remain focused on growing lower cost deposit balances. Turning to the income statement. First quarter fee income overcame seasonal headwinds with strong performance across all income types. Additionally, we had an $8.9 million gain on bargain purchase related to the BankFinancial acquisition. Noninterest expenses increased from the linked quarter due primarily to the impact of our most recent acquisitions. Our ACL coverage decreased slightly during the quarter to 1.36% of total loans and we recorded $8.5 million of provision expense during the period, which was driven primarily by net charge-offs. On asset quality, net charge-offs were 35 basis points on an annualized basis an increase of 8 basis points from the fourth quarter, while NPAs as a percentage of assets were 44 basis points, declining 4 basis points from the fourth quarter. Classified assets as a percentage of total assets also declined slightly during the period. From a capital standpoint, our ratios are in excess of both internal and regulatory targets. Tangible book value increased $0.41 to $16.15, while our tangible common equity ratio increased to 7.88%. Slide 8 reconciles our GAAP earnings to adjusted earnings highlighting items that we believe are important to understanding our quarterly performance. Adjusted net income was $80.5 million or $0.77 per share for the quarter. Noninterest income was adjusted for $1.3 million of losses on the sales of investment securities, the $8.9 million gain on bargain purchase related to the BankFinancial acquisition and a $1.4 million loss on the surrender of a bank-owned life insurance policy. Noninterest expense adjustments exclude the impact of acquisition costs, tax credit investment write-downs and other expenses not expected to recur. As depicted on Slide 9, these adjusted earnings equate to a return on average assets of 1.45% and a return on average tangible common equity of 19% and a pretax pre-provision ROA of 1.99%. Turning to Slides 10 and 11. Net interest margin increased 1 basis point from the linked quarter to 3.99%. Total deposit costs declined 13 basis points from the linked quarter, offsetting the impact of lower asset yields. Slide 13 illustrates our current loan mix and balance changes compared to the linked quarter. Loan balances increased $71 million during the period. As you can see on the right, we acquired $228 million of loans in the BankFinancial transaction. This was offset by a $152 million decrease in ICRE balances. [ Absent ] the acquisition, loan balances decreased 4.7% on an annualized basis, driven by elevated payoffs and ICRE. Slide 15 depicts our NDFI exposure. As you can see, our total NDFI balances are approximately 3% of our total loan book and all NDFI loans were pass rated at the end of the first quarter. The majority of our NDFI lending is concentrated in loans to REITs, which we believe further mitigates our risk. Slide 16 shows our deposit mix as well as the progression of average deposits from the linked quarter. In total, average deposit balances increased $1.7 billion, including a $1.2 billion impact from the BankFinancial transaction as well as a full quarter impact from Westfield. Slide 18 highlights our noninterest income. Total adjusted fee income was $76 million, with leasing and wealth management both posting record results. Foreign exchange delivered strong results and client derivative fees increased during the period as well. Noninterest expense for the quarter is outlined on Slide 19. Core expenses increased $12.9 million as expected during the period. This was driven primarily by our recent acquisitions. Turning now to Slides 20 and 21. Our ACL model resulted in a total allowance, which includes both funded and unfunded reserves of $207 million, which includes $3.1 million of initial allowance on the BankFinancial portfolio. This resulted in an ACL that was 1.36% of total loans, which was a 3 basis point decline from the fourth quarter. We recorded $8.5 million of provision expense during the period. Provision expense was primarily driven by net charge-offs, which were 35 basis points. Additionally, our NPAs to total assets decreased slightly to 44 basis points, while classified asset balances as a percentage of total assets decreased to 1.02%. Finally, as shown on Slides 22 and 23, capital ratios remain in excess of regulatory minimums and internal targets. During the first quarter, tangible book value increased to $16.15, while the TCE ratio increased to 7.88% at the end of the period. Our total shareholder return remains strong with 35% of our first quarter earnings returned to our shareholders during the period through the common dividend. The Board also approved a $5 million share repurchase program. We maintain our commitment to providing an attractive return to our shareholders and we'll evaluate capital actions that support that commitment. I'll now turn it back over to Archie for some comments on our outlook. Archie?

Thank you, Jamie. Before we conclude our prepared remarks, I want to comment on our second quarter outlook, which can be found on Slide 24. On the balance sheet, we expect mid-single-digit loan growth on an annualized basis during the second quarter as loans filter through our strong pipelines and ICRE payoffs slow. On the deposit side, we expect core deposit balances to remain relatively flat compared to the first quarter. Our net interest margin remains among the highest in the peer group, and we expect it to hold steady in a 3.99% to 4.04% range over the next quarter, assuming no rate cuts. Related to credit, we expect second quarter credit costs to approximate first quarter levels and ACL coverage to remain relatively stable as a percentage of loans. As I mentioned earlier, similar to last year, we expect credit trends to gradually improve over the course of the year. Further down the income statement, we expect fee income to be between $75 million and $77 million, which includes $14 million to $16 million for foreign exchange and $20 million to $22 million for leasing business revenue. Noninterest expenses are expected to be between $151 million and $154 million. We successfully completed the Westfield conversion in March and are scheduled to convert BankFinancial over the summer, we're on pace to achieve our modeled cost savings in the Westfield acquisition and should realize full savings beginning in the third quarter, and we expect full BankFinancial savings to be realized beginning in the fourth quarter. Before I wrap up, I want to thank our associates for the incredible work they've done this year integrating Westfield into First Financial and the work they're now doing as they prepare for the BankFinancial conversion I also want to mention how proud I am that First Financial was selected for the Gallup Exceptional Workplace Award for associate engagement. This marks the second consecutive year that we have received this honor which is awarded to 4% of the thousands of companies that Gallup works with worldwide. We have partnered with Gallup for more than 6 years, and we've made associate engagement a core tenet of our corporate strategy. I want to commend our associates and leaders who work throughout the year to drive engagement, knowing that by doing so, we're also improving the client experience and shareholder value. To conclude, we're really happy with our first quarter results. We've made substantial progress across the company, and we worked diligently to be a bank that consistently produces top level results. We remain focused on the right things and are determined to build on the momentum generated by our first quarter performance. We've had a very strong start to 2026, and we believe that this is going to be another very successful year for First Financial. Kate will now open up the call for questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Daniel Tamayo with Raymond James.

So I guess maybe first, starting on the loan growth side. You talked about the impact from the payoffs in the first quarter, $152 million, I think, is the number you gave. So we talked to a lot of banks this earnings season about this headwind and kind of what's going to change to remove that headwind going forward. So just curious on your thoughts on that, kind of what drives your confidence those headwinds on the paydown side slow? And just a little bit more timing if it's second quarter or you think it's back half of the year. As it relates to the timing of the paydowns?

Yes. Thanks, Danny. Yes, I'll maybe start with some color, and then I'll come back to the kind of how we see our outlook on it. We talked about this primarily being ICRE. We had -- we don't show REITs in the ICRE totals, but we also had some REIT paydowns or exits, if you will, and that shows up more in our commercial line. That was probably another $23 million, but it's all related in the commercial real estate space, if you will. Look, it's been a mix. We probably saw about 30% of our ICRE balances were exited because of the properties were sold. So there's been a little more, I think, a little more volume of sales occurring as some of the developers owners are saying, look, this is -- I'm getting good pricing. It's a good time to do it with the uncertainty. So that's a piece of it. We've seen about maybe close to 1/4 of it go to the secondary market. And then we've seen other banks come back in. We've seen -- for several years, we weren't seeing the larger regionals in the space. They're back in and they're aggressive and they're taking out loans. In some cases, for us, hotels, we don't have a big book, but that's where some of it's come from. Other cases, loans that they're taking and they're taking for very aggressive pricing or, in some cases, structure that we don't think is appropriate. So we're seeing some of it move like that. So if you said property sales, secondary market, larger banks coming back in and then some REIT exits that's sort of been the mix of what we've seen happen. We talked to our commercial real estate team, just what we're seeing in their conversation with borrowers and just with the level of payoff requests coming in, they just are slowing. And what our team sees is that over the course of the second quarter, that will slow -- continue to slow. In addition, our production ramps up more in the quarter. So it's a combination of the 2, we don't know exactly where this is going to fall, of course. There's timing of payoff things that can occur. But they're hopeful that they're going to be somewhere that portfolio around flattish for the quarter. And if they're flattish along with the other activity we have, I think that drives our growth overall.

That's great. Very helpful detail there, Archie. I guess the other side of that, and you touched on it at the end, is the production I think you talked a little bit about it in the prepared remarks, but maybe talk about the pipeline and some of the drivers within that, particularly on the commercial side for the rest of the year?

The pipeline, I think we signaled is pretty strong. Now look, I guess everybody can define what a pipeline means. In our -- in the language we're using here, we call these advanced stage pipeline or a late-stage pipeline. Generally, this is where we've been awarded the business. That doesn't mean we'll close them all. Sometimes they'll fall out for different reasons, but that's how we're looking at this. And it's just -- it's up substantially from the early part of the year, and we think that activity is continuing. The sentiment in the market, I know there's a lot of macro activity going on, but demand is pretty strong. Borrowers are pretty active, and we think the pipeline will continue to build. So that's given us some confidence that we'll see the growth we've talked about. And it's pretty much across the board. When you look at all of the areas that we lend into. We're seeing good pipeline activity.

Okay. Great. And then lastly, again on the same topic, but just curious where you guys stand, I mean, in Chicago right now? You closed the BankFinancial deal. It was really for the deposit side? I know you had some presence there prior to the deal. So maybe update us on where you stand from like a lender perspective and where you're looking to get to over time?

Sure. So Danny, as you said, we closed early in the year, convert early June. As you said, it's been primarily a deposit play deposits are holding, I think, pretty well at this point. And we're sort of building out the team, if you will. So we've added some commercial banking talent. We had a team I think we've added one here in the last month or two. We plan to add more bankers to the commercial banking team. We've added wealth advisers to the team, private bankers to the team. So we're kind of filling out, if you will, what I call the more of the wholesale commercial team to complement the retail strategy. And we think there's good opportunity. If you go back and look at that bank, they really weren't generating activity in those areas to speak of. So we think it's -- as we get the team filled out, almost anything we do there is going to be additive to the bank's balance sheet.

Your next question comes from the line of Brandon Rud with Stephens.

I guess maybe my first one, the cost of interest-bearing deposits was 2.33% for the full quarter. I'm just curious, embedded within your NIM guide, is that kind of a good starting base for the second quarter or I guess, I guess, yes, is that still a good starting point for the second quarter?

Yes, we talked -- when we're talking deposits, Brandon, we really talk more kind of the overall -- like our overall cost of deposits. So that -- but that number that you're quoting there, I mean that's the -- I guess, the exit cost going into the second quarter would be slightly lower than that. And so we're showing our overall cost of deposits in the first quarter was 1.83%, and we think we can get that down in the second quarter, another 2 or 3 basis points. So the cost of interest-bearing deposits would just kind of flow right off of that as well, obviously. So the -- so our starting cost of deposits in the second quarter. Again, 1.83% for the full quarter in the first quarter, the starting point is around 1.80%, 1.81%.

Okay. Perfect. And then I think you said the fourth quarter of this year, I think, is going to be the first clean quarter with all the expenses taken out. So thank you for the guide for the second quarter. I'm assuming kind of stair steps down from there. I guess what is that all-in run rate with all the cost saves kind of look like in the fourth quarter then?

Yes. So we'll get a stair step down here in the -- let's see here. In the second quarter, call it down into that range where we guided to. And we think then it is relatively flat for the remainder of the year. We may get a little bit more coming down. But obviously, we have some other stuff outside of the acquisitions where we're making other investments and whatnot where costs are moving up, just like normal in that 2% or 3% range that's going to offset the decline really from the from the BankFinancial deal. And the BankFinancial deal, obviously, was a little bit smaller in their expense base. But the fourth quarter, so we should see that step down in the second quarter, which gets us to that guide that we put in the outlook, and then it's relatively flat for those -- for the out quarters.

Got you. Okay. So the cost savings effectively fund the investments and that's a stable rate?

Right.

Your next question comes from the line of Karl Shepard with RBC Capital Markets.

I guess I just want to start on the margin quick. We have the guide for 2Q. But just thinking about your balance sheet, I'm guessing if we don't see any cuts, that's probably a pretty good spot to be for the rest of the year? Or should we be thinking about loan growth maybe changing the mix a little bit and helping the margin?

Yes. Yes, this is Jamie, Karl. Yes. So that guide, obviously, with rate cuts getting looks like getting pushed out in either later in the year or into '27 at this point, obviously helps us from a margin standpoint, being slightly asset sensitive. But yes, so when we -- as we remix out of some of the securities balances that we've put on with the liquidity that we got from -- especially from the BankFinancial deal, you could see -- and it's not a lot, obviously, because based on the earning asset base of -- based on the earning asset base that we have, that rotation is relatively small out of the securities book into the -- if we have loan growth in that 5% to 7% range, you're talking about a couple of hundred million dollars a quarter, right? So if we rotate out of securities for a portion or all of that, it's just not -- it's not that much to basically get a lot of lift in the margin, but you might see a basis point or 2.

Okay. And then I saw in the deck a new branch in the Westfield markets. I'm assuming that was planned ahead of the merger, but just we talked a little bit about Chicago expectations and investments there, 2 questions ago. But anything in Westfield markets to flag?

Yes, Karl, this is Archie. So specific to that branch, that was actually a branch underway when we were negotiating and announcing a deal, they already had that branch under construction. So we just completed. Actually, we opened it up as a First Financial branch prior to the conversion which is, I think, a good thing from training and letting people get to use -- kind of get to introduce to First Financial. With regard to other things we're doing in the Northeast Ohio market, I think altogether, so I think there's about 4 FTE added because of Wadsworth that branch. I think we've added about another 9 producers whether they be on the commercial, small business side, wealth, private banking. We've added about 9 producers to that market. to kind of round out all the things that we do. That's all baked into the expense numbers as well. But we think there's upside of adding the additional production capability.

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Foran with Truist.

Your capital has rebuilt pretty quickly here, which is a good problem to have. I mean, in some ways, maybe just an open-ended question on what you're thinking going forward. I think you mentioned maybe evaluating more buybacks. And then as part of that, if there's anything notable to share around Basel III or around how you're thinking about the binding minimum between CET1 and TCE and things like that. But yes, really just kind of focused on the excess capital and what you're thinking for the next 12 months or so?

Yes. Yes, Brian, this is Jamie. So yes, if you -- we are compounding capital at a high rate just based on our earnings level. And if you look back pre Westfield and BankFinancial, I mean, maybe to a lesser extent, BankFinancial. But if you look back pre-acquisition, at the end of the third quarter, and I'm talking about our tangible book value per share we're basically back to where we were now pre-acquisition level. So what we were very pleased with. So we are piling in at this earnings level, a lot of capital. And really, when you think about it for us, I mean our regulatory ratios are fine. We have a lot of cushion there. Typically, our constraint when we look at -- like if we look at an acquisition, our constraint typically is in the TCE ratio. We're close to 8% now, just below 8%. Obviously, we have some AOCI impact in there. And then rates moved against us a little bit in the first quarter to -- or that would have been even a little bit higher. So our typical constraint is to TCE ratio. We would like to be that -- like to have that above 8% and we're getting there pretty quickly. But when we talk about buyback and looking at that, obviously, we're going to be mindful of price and the earnback on that -- on a buyback and looking at that TCE ratio. But we are -- so we have a -- when we look at the common dividend, we have a payout ratio in the low 30s, call it, 30% to 35% now based on our earnings level post acquisition. So we wanted to get a couple -- a quarter or 2 of impact in from the acquisitions to see where we were from a capital ratio standpoint, where everything was going to fall out -- and then so we had the Board approve the share buyback. We haven't done any buybacks in several years, mainly because of, well, several things. We've had -- we had a couple of nonbank acquisitions during that -- so we haven't done a buyback since '21. And we had a couple of the nonbank acquisitions in there, which aid up a pretty significant amount of capital for us because they were all basically all cash deals. And so all goodwill aid into the TCE ratio. So we think we're at a level now, especially with our earnings, the amount of capital we're bringing in, where we can look at buybacks and potentially, I think what we're looking at is looking at that total payout ratio, again, which now with just the common dividend is in the low 30s of increasing that somewhere in that 50% to 60% range. And so if you do that math, the other -- obviously, the other piece of that is the buyback. So you're talking about another 20 to 30 points of where the buyback would play into that. And then -- but that we're -- I don't know if we're saying we're guaranteeing we we're going to do that, you could probably see us execute some on the buyback. It would be dependent on some other factors, potentially macro factors and then we would -- if we see a strategic M&A deal, we would prioritize that in front of the buyback. But yes, I think absent that, I think you would see us start executing on the buyback.

That's great. If I could ask one follow-up. The CRE paydown discussion was really helpful. I think the last point you made was seeing some pricing and structure that you don't necessarily want to match. I wonder if just anecdotally, kind of at the aggressive end of the market, could you share where you're seeing yields or spreads get to? And are there any particular points in structure that you're seeing people give on? Is it an LTV thing? Is it a personal guarantee thing? What are the kind of things you're seeing in the market that you don't want to match?

Yes. This is Archie. I mean we had a deal that we were -- we thought we were within days of closing. It's like a $25 million or $30 million transaction. We thought we were in days of closing and one of the large regionals had been competing on it. And then, I guess, when they realized they had lost it, they came back and basically eliminated the covenants. So it wouldn't even change and just eliminated the covenants. So we're seeing that. Certainly on a fixed charge coverage ratio, those numbers may be coming down. It's those kind of things in particular. Our pricing is aggressive also, I may have mentioned earlier, but certainly sub-200 basis points of spread, 170, 180, in some cases, lower for some commercial, really high-quality commercial deals even lower on spread. So it tends to be really aggressive pricing, loosening up some of the coverage ratios would be probably the primary areas we're seeing it.

All right. Hopefully, it's not true with swooping in with no covenants.

Yes. Well, I think the point here too is, I mean we're -- I think everybody is excited about activity and wanting loan growth, and we want it too, but we don't want to give our skis. So we're going to get growth, but we need -- we want it to make sense, and we want to be happy about it 2 years from now.

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from the line of Brendan Nosal with Hovde Group.

Maybe just starting off here on some of the -- just the overall balance sheet. It looks like there's some pretty big discrepancies between where spot balances were for kind of loans, cash and securities versus average balances for the quarter, and I guess there's a lot of noise. So I guess, can you fill us in on when the BankFinancial loan sale occurred during the quarter? And then where do you see overall average earning assets landing in the second quarter?

Yes. Great question, Brendan. This is Jamie. So the loan sale closed on at the end of -- the very end of the quarter, it closed on March 30. So when you look at our cash and securities we had call it, roughly $400 million sitting in cash, not in securities, it was sitting in cash at the end of the quarter. And so that $400 million-ish we will not put that to work in the securities portfolio. We will kind of slowly let higher cost either borrowings or deposits or broker deposits run out, and we'll fund that with the cash from that loan sale. And then so when you're talking about earning assets, the earning asset base for the first quarter kind of spot at the end of the quarter was around $19.7 million -- around [ $9 million to $15.7 million ]. So if you take that $400 million out sitting in cash, I guess, it's sitting in interest-bearing deposits at banks. So that will come out, and then you'll start to see again, with the loan growth that we guided to, if that is -- again, if that's in that 5% to 7% range, you're talking about a couple of hundred like $200 million a quarter. Our plan is to fund about half of that with cash flows from the securities portfolio and then the rest, we'll grow the earning asset base. So if you're talking about maybe $100 million or so increase in earning assets each quarter. Does that make sense?

Yes. Yes. And then just I guess there's still a bit of a discrepancy on my end of just kind of where that number will land in the second quarter just with the moving pieces. Can you just maybe help a little more on kind of where [ AAAs ] land.

Yes. So you're talking around $19.5 million.

Okay. All right. Fantastic. Maybe turning back to the margin just kind of unpacking the core NIM ex accretion versus the accretion piece. I think you had 10 basis points this quarter of fair value accretion. Just kind of curious when you kind of look at the path for that, what does that number look like?

Yes. We think that will be relatively steady at that 10 basis points. Obviously, it could move around if we get either slowdown, and it's all based on the amount of payoff/prepayments that we get on that portfolio. But somewhere around that 10 basis point range in that -- and the dollars would be around that $4 million to $5 million of accretion income.

Okay. Perfect. Last one for me here. Just when you kind of look out at growth expectations for the balance of the year, can you kind of dissect that between the core commercial bank versus your various specialty businesses?

Yes, this is Archie. So when you say the specialty, are you meaning core versus like specialty including Summit and Oak Street, things like that?

Yes. So yes, when I say essentially Oak Street, Summit, Agile, those books versus kind of the traditional commercial bank.

Yes. I mean it's the top of my head, but I'd say it's slightly tilted towards the core commercial. Agile is going to grow, but they're going to grow. It's just the base is not that huge, and they'll -- if they grow I can't recall now $20 million, $30 million. Summit it will grow, but their amortizations have picked up, so their growth rates are just not as strong as they used to be. So specialty is contributing -- but I would say we're talking commercial core commercial consumer is going to be, as you said, 50% to 60%, maybe 65%.

Yes. This is Jamie. Yes, it's about -- I would say it's about 2/3, 1/3. And then Agile, they have a -- the second quarter is their big quarter for growth. Yes.

I'll now turn the call back over to Archie Brown for closing remarks.

Thank you, Kate. I want to thank everybody for joining us today and following along our progress during the first quarter. We look forward to talking again in the second quarter. And hopefully, we'll be sharing even more good news with you. Have a great day. Have a great weekend. Bye now.

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.