Ernesto Lopez Mozo
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets
Thank you, Silvia, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for Ferrovial's Third Quarter 2025 Operating Earnings Conference Call. Starting with the overview. I mean, in the first 9 months of 2025, we saw continued strong momentum across our business divisions. Our highways delivered outstanding revenue and EBITDA growth, fueled by our North American assets. Airports saw continued progress at New Terminal One at JFK. Here, we are now intensely focused on operational readiness. Construction maintained solid profitability with the adjusted EBIT margin reaching 3.7% in the first 9 months. On the financial side, net debt, excluding infrastructure projects, stood at negative net debt or net cash, let's say, EUR 706 million. The main cash inflows included EUR 406 million in dividends collected from projects and proceeds of EUR 534 million from the sale of AGS Airports in the U.K. and EUR 539 million from the sale of a 5.25% stake in AGS Airports. This was closed in July. The main cash outflows related to the acquisition of an additional 5.06% stake in the 407 ETR for the equivalent of EUR 1.3 billion and also equity injections of EUR 239 million in NTO. Shareholder distributions reached EUR 426 million in the first 9 months. We also announced a second scrip dividend and expect to submit the RFQ for the I-77 South Express project in North Carolina in December. As a reminder, we have already been shortlisted for bidding on the I-24, Southeast Choice Lanes in Tennessee and the I-285 East Express Lanes in Georgia. We expect to submit these bids in the first half of 2026. Let's move now into the operations with the slide on highways. And here, the U.S. highway revenue grew 16.4% in like-for-like terms in the first 9 months of the year and compared to last year, and adjusted EBITDA was up nearly 15.1%. 97% of the highways adjusted EBITDA and 88% of the highways' revenue come from the North American assets. Dividends from these North American assets in the first 9 months of 2025 totaled EUR 312 million, versus the EUR 420 million in the same period last year. I mean this reflects the strong growth and the cash generation of these concessions. As a reminder, in the first 9 months of 2024 included the first dividend from the I-77, which was an extraordinary amount of EUR 195 million. Let's move to the specific assets, the 407 ETR that delivered another outstanding performance this quarter. The traffic in the quarter grew strongly, 9.4%, and it grew 6.2% in the first 9 months of the year compared to last year. This growth reflects the success of targeted rush hour driving offers as well as the increase in mobility in the region from return to office mandates. The strong underlying traffic trends was the cost driving 18.6% revenue growth in the third quarter and 19.3% in the first 9 months. EBITDA surged 20.1% in the third quarter and 15.8% in the first 9 months. In terms of Schedule 22, 407 ETR reduced the 2025 Schedule 22 Payment Estimate. Given the new estimate is markedly lower than the previous estimate, the provision for the first 9 months is lower than the one recorded up to June. As a result, the 407 ETR recorded a CAD 9.8 million provision recovery in the third quarter, bringing the accrued provision for the 9 months to CAD 35.4 million. Promotions are working really well in incentivizing more efficient use of the road. Through these targeted offers, we continue to gain valuable insights into customer behavior. We expect our focus on demand segmentation to continue enhancing value for users and maximizing EBITDA growth. In terms of dividends, CAD 450 million has been paid in the first 9 months of the year. This is up 13% compared with the same period last year. And the 407 Board has approved a dividend of CAD 1.05 billion to be distributed in Q4. This is up 50% from last year's fourth quarter dividend. And this would bring the total amount of dividends approved for the 2025 year to CAD 1.5 billion. This is up 36% from 2024. Moving to the Dallas-Fort Worth Managed Lanes, Slide 6. We will start with NTE. And here, well, despite we see traffic impact from capacity improvement construction works, really, there's fewer vehicles in the corridor that has affected traffic declining 3.7% in the third quarter and 4.4% in the first 9 months of the year. The revenue per transaction has increased by a healthy 14.2% in these first 9 months. And this benefits from a favorable traffic mix that means more heavy vehicles in proportion and more mandatory mode events. The asset grew the adjusted EBITDA by 7.4% in the first 9 months, and this includes $1.3 million of revenue share in the third quarter and $4 million in the first 9 months. In LBJ, traffic grew 1.7% in the quarter and 1.5% in the first 9 months of the year. And this despite the impact of continued construction works in the surrounding roads and corridors. The revenue per transaction grew 8.7% in the first 9 months and the adjusted EBITDA grew 11.1%. Now with NTE 35W is the only Dallas-Fort Worth managed lane that is not impacted by construction works. Traffic in the third quarter grew 4.6% and by 4.1% in the first 9 months. This drove outstanding revenue per transaction growth of 12.0% in the third quarter and 10.2% for the first 9 months. The adjusted EBITDA that grew 11.8% in the first 9 months of the year included $4.9 million of revenue share in the third quarter and $14.8 million in the first 9 months of 2025. All the Dallas-Fort Worth assets, as you see, recorded solid revenue per transaction growth, and this is above the soft cap, benefiting from the favorable traffic mix that I mentioned, there's more heavy in proportion. And in the case of NTE and NTE 35 West, they are also benefiting from more mandatory mode events, which occur when tolls are temporarily forced above the soft cap to guarantee a minimum level of service. In terms of dividend distributions for the first 9 months, I mean, the figures at 100% participation would be $108 million for the NTE, $52 million for LBJ and $99 million for the NTE 35 West. There's no changes versus June. Please remember that these projects usually distribute dividends in June and December. Moving to management outside Dallas Fort Worth, we have the I-66 and the I-77. The I-66 saw exceptional traffic growth, 13.2% in the third quarter and 8.5% in the first 9 months of the year. And the revenue per transaction grew 12.1% in the quarter and 18.3% in the first 9 months of the year. This strong growth was driven by robust corridor growth, especially during peak times where we are seeing some benefits from greater enforcement of return to office policies. Really, this is happening across the U.S. and also Canada. This strong underlying traffic trends helped to drive the outstanding growth of 32.5% in adjusted EBITDA in the first 9 months of the year. The I-66 distributed $64 million in dividends in the first 9 months. The I-77 also saw traffic growth here, 1.5% in the third quarter despite adverse weather conditions, particularly in August. Revenue per transaction increased by a strong 25.7% in the quarter and 24.4% in the first 9 months. Adjusted EBITDA grew 21.1% in the first 9 months with $5.4 million of revenue share for Q3 2025, and this includes revenue share from extended vehicles. The revenue sharing, including extended vehicles, totaled $15.7 million for 9 months 2025 compared to $6.9 million in the first 9 months of 2024. And the I-77 distributed $22 million in dividends -- I mean, since the beginning of the year. Now let's move to the Airports division. At New Terminal One, we are making a steady progress towards operational readiness. The project remains on budget. In terms of schedule, we are discussing acceleration measures with the contractor to guarantee that the official opening date of June 2026 is achieved. Construction is 78% complete and we have commitments from 21 airlines. As a reminder from previous quarters, we achieved an important milestone in July, completing the refinancing of Phase A through the issuance of a $1.4 billion long-term bond. In Dalaman, we saw steady performance. Adjusted EBITDA growth in the first 9 months is supported by commercial upgrades and despite softer international traffic during the summer, that was affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. In the first 9 months, traffic declined by 1.5%, yet revenue grew 2.9% and EBITDA 1.8%. Dalaman distributed EUR 7 million in dividends during the third quarter. This is Ferrovial's share. Now let's move to Construction, that keeps showing solid profitability. The division delivered a 3.7% adjusted EBIT margin for the first 9 months of the year, aligned with the long-term target of 3.5%. And it recorded a solid 4.2% adjusted EBIT margin in the third quarter. Budimex and Webber maintained a steady profitability with very healthy adjusted EBIT margins of 7.6% and 3%, respectively, in the first 9 months. Ferrovial Construction's adjusted EBIT margin was 1.7% in the 9 months, and this is down slightly versus the same period last year due to significant design activity in bidding for projects in the U.S. and costs related to digitalization and IT systems, while partially offset by increased margins in projects approaching completion. So these expenses should be for the good growth that we're seeing ahead. Our order book stands at EUR 17.2 billion at the end of September. This is up 9.1% in like-for-like terms from the -- compared to the close of 2024 December. The composition of the order book remains very healthy given the lower weight of large design and build projects with nongroup companies. It does not reflect approximately EUR 2.3 billion in contracts that are pre-awards or are pending financial close. And almost half of our -- half of our backlog is in our core U.S. and Canada market, we expect will continue to support future growth. Now let's move to the next slide, just to have a look at the main figures. You see the strong revenue and profitability performance for the first 9 months of the year. I mean, strong across the board, revenue growing 6.2%, adjusted EBITDA, 4.8% and adjusted EBIT by 6.0% in like-for-like terms. Let's move now into the consolidated net debt position. In the next slide, the net debt, excluding infrastructure project companies, as I mentioned in the introduction, was negative EUR 706 million or net cash of EUR 706 million at the end of the third quarter. This reflects a strong cash generation also disciplined investment and the impact of recent divestments. Here, we have the bridge where we see that we collected a strong dividends. Please remember, this figure does not include the latest dividend announced by the 407 ETR that will be paid in the fourth quarter. The cash flow from construction is affected by the lack of significant advanced payments during the first 9 months. You know that there's usually seasonality in construction. We expect to see a substantial improvement in working capital in the last quarter of the year. Then in this operating section, we also have tax payments that are mainly related to Budimex and to a lesser degree, construction projects in Australia and Canada. We also looking into the investment bucket, we see significant activity in terms of investments for growth. I mean, the main one being the 5.06% acquisition, additional stake in the 407 and also the equity injections in NTO. Just a reminder, NTO has no additional equity injections scheduled for the year. Additionally, in this block, we also reflect the interest received in cash and deposits, right? And also here, we reflect the divestments from the sale of Heathrow and AGS primarily. Then we have the shareholder distributions, including cash and share buybacks amounted to EUR 426 million. Here, we are on track, remember, to deliver across the years 2024 through 2026, EUR 2.2 billion in cash to our shareholders. So we are on that. And then we have the cash flow from financing activities related to external debt repayments, interest and so on and also the FX translation of the cash balances sheet. So it's a very solid net cash position. So let's move to the -- I mean, closing remarks I would like to make before moving into the Q&A session. Really, the performance in the first 9 months of 2025 demonstrates, I mean, shows the strength and resilience of our portfolio, the North American assets continue to drive growth, supported by increased customer segmentation and favorable market dynamics where the assets are located. Looking ahead, we're really looking forward to the attractive pipeline of opportunities in North American highways mainly. I mean, we expect to have bid submissions for the I-24 in Tennessee, I-25 in Georgia in the first half of 2026. And also at the end -- before the end of this year, the submission of the RFQ for the I-77 South in North Carolina. The construction order book remains healthy and the division ready to enable delivery on the growth opportunities that the infrastructure concession pipeline shows. Well, thank you, and let's move into the Q&A session.