Gregg Sengstack
Analyst · Northcoast Research Partners.
Yes. Ryan, I'd say that we were a little surprised at the lack of appetite in Q4. Like many others, we've been talking about destocking and figuring like, okay, now it's over, now it's over. It seems to kind of extend. So, we talked again with major marketers. A couple of them are public. And so, again, with the public major marketers, they're putting out their bid schedules - their build schedules, and they have a say-do commitment to the street like we do. And so you get that visibility. With some private firms, things kind of move to the right. And so with that and with the really, again, improved lead times, if you think about it, you're in Distribution in the fueling space. You've got to have that product available when that station starts to build because you have a relatively tight schedule and build schedule. So you're going to buy ahead. And now, with the lead times improving, they really - distributors had little appetite. We didn't see the normal kind of year-end activity that we would see many people to hit, rebate levels. There was very little incentive or very little interest in hitting rebate levels at the end of the year. So I think that's - they kind of, our customers kind of looked at the year and said, look, we're going to let this go by and we're going to, restart in '24, the refresh. Certainly, there were good station builds even through COVID with all the challenges, but I think that what we're looking at is station builds maybe being kind of more like, again, 2019, 2020 levels, which are down a little bit from the last couple years. But, again, the major marketers - because, again, two-thirds of the stations out there in the United States, for example, there are 150,000 stations. Call it 100,000 or people that operate 10 stores or less. And, and those number of operators are declining. They're being bought up or replaced by the major marketers. Those are the companies that we're focused on with spec. And that's why we're encouraged to say that with major marketers consolidating, with us gaining spec with them, is why we feel that we're going to have a reasonable '24. But, like you said, I think we were even a little surprised at the kind of lack of appetite in the fourth quarter. But the marketers are telling us that they're going to have a good schedule built in 2024, the best that we've seen.