James F. Pearson
Analyst · Credit Suisse
Thank you, Leila. I'm pleased to be here today. I have enjoyed getting to know many of you over the past several years, and I look forward to meeting many of you on my new role. Today, I will review the fourth quarter and full year 2012 results, then close with a discussion of our 2013 financial plan. Before I move on to our 2012 results, I want to reaffirm our non-GAAP earnings guidance for 2013 of $2.85 to $3.15 per share. Let's turn now to the consolidated report, as I walk through our results. Looking at the fourth quarter of 2012, non-GAAP earnings were $0.80 per share, while GAAP results were a loss of $0.35 per share. As I would discuss in a moment, our fourth quarter and full year GAAP results were significantly impacted by pension accounting. In the fourth quarter of 2011, non-GAAP earnings were $0.77 per share, while GAAP earnings were $0.23 per share. For the year, our non-GAAP earnings are $3.34 per share. And as Tony said, that is in line with our 2012 guidance. Full year 2012 GAAP earnings are $1.85 per share. These results compare to 2011 non-GAAP earnings of $3.64 per share and GAAP earnings of $2.22 per share. On Pages 4 and 20 of the consolidated report, you can find the list of special items that make up the difference between the GAAP and non-GAAP results. As I mentioned, the largest of these special items is the mark-to-market adjustment for pension and OPEB accounting, which was a negative $0.91 per share in the fourth quarter primarily related to a reduction in the discount rate. As you may recall, last year, we adopted a change in accounting where we will annually recognize any adjustments from deviations in actuarial assumptions in year incurred versus amortizing them over a number of years. In 2011, this adjustment was $0.74 per share, but it was more than offset by a onetime gain from the sale of non-core assets. Other special items for the fourth quarter 2012 include plant deactivation cost, which decreased GAAP earnings by $0.12 per share; a decrease of $0.04 per share from impacts of the sale or impairment of non-core assets; other mark-to-market gains of $0.03 per share; a decrease of $0.03 per share related to merger accounting for commodity contracts and $0.02 per share in merger-related cost; a decrease of $0.02 per share related to tax legislative changes, regulatory charges of $0.02 per share, trust securities impairment of a $0.01 per share and a charge of $0.01 per share for restructuring costs. Moving now to the drivers of our ongoing results. Clearly, Hurricane Sandy had a significant impact on our company during the quarter. Approximately 10,000 employees from across the company were dedicated to storm restoration efforts from late October through mid-November, redeploying them to capital work instead of O&M. Regulated distribution O&M expense, net of storm deferrals, decreased in the quarter as a result of this mass redeployment of the workforce. O&M also benefited from lower expenses related to our fossil and nuclear plants, as well as the coal units we deactivated in the third quarter. These items, in total, increased earnings by $0.08 per share. Let's turn now to distribution deliveries, which increased earnings by $0.04 per share. Overall deliveries increased 252,000 megawatt hours or about 1%. Commercial deliveries were essentially flat, while industrial deliveries were down 3% compared to the fourth quarter of 2011 largely due to reduced operations by many of our large steel, automotive and refinery customers. Residential deliveries increased by 5% quarter-over-quarter influenced by colder weather versus the same period in 2011. With regard to economic recovery in our service territory, we still have a ways to go. Full year 2012 sales adjusted for weather show that residential volumes are now on par with the levels we experienced in 2007. However, commercial sales remain down 5% and industrial sales are still 8% below prerecession levels. Further, while industrial sales have improved versus their 2009 low point, they have been basically stagnant for the past 3 years. Moving back to the fourth quarter drivers. 2012 earnings also benefited by a total of $0.04 per share primarily as a result of investment income as we rebalanced our nuclear decommissioning trust portfolio and general taxes. Commodity margin reduced earnings by $0.08 per share in the quarter. Looking at commodity margin from a high level, the execution of our retail strategy resulted in a sales gain of $0.11 per share, but this was offset by $0.19 per share decrease in capacity revenues due to lower capacity prices. It should be noted that capacity prices and PJM during the June 2012 through May 2013 and June 2013 through May 2014 planning years are at historic lows in the range of $16 to $28 per megawatt day primarily as a result of auctions in the 2009 and 2010 periods that were at the depths of our recession. Further, the June 2014 through May 2016 planning years, as a result of auctions conducted in 2011 and 2012, prices are substantially higher in the $100-plus per megawatt day range. On a more granular scale, overall contract sales increased 10% or $0.07 per share. And once again, the volume gains in contract sales offset the impact of lower market prices. Governmental aggregation sales increased 29% in the quarter driven primarily by new contracts in Illinois. Mass market sales rose 72% with much of that growth in Pennsylvania. And sales to large commercial and industrial customers increased 6%, as new customers in Southern Ohio offset lower use by some of our large commercial customers in our Ohio and Pennsylvania utility service territory. Finally, POLR sales continue to decrease, consistent with our retail strategy to realign our sales portfolio. I'll mention here that FirstEnergy Solution's hedge position for the balance of 2013 is currently at 96%. Commodity margin in the fourth quarter also benefited from lower capacity expense, lower fuel expense related to increased nuclear output in the generation mix and gains from net financial sales and purchases. These were offset by lower PJM capacity revenues as I mentioned earlier, a decrease in wholesale sales due to higher contract sales and lower generation output, higher purchased power costs mainly related to having Sammis temporarily offline and serving more customers, higher transmission expense and lower sales of renewable energy credits. While 2012 commodity margin was negatively impacted by lower capacity revenues at a lower average rate of 56 per megawatt hour, we are pleased with the progress that FirstEnergy Solutions is making. We ended the year with 100 million megawatt hours in competitive sales, a 10% increase compared to 2011. And we grew our retail customer base by 42% through the continued success of our multi-channel strategy. Respecting our 2012 financial plan, we funded the Bruce Mansfield sale leaseback repurchase and took out additional nuclear sale leasebacks. We also contributed $600 million to the pension fund, putting the pension plan in the position to be fully funded once the discount rate returns to more historic levels, for example, like those adopted by Congress for determining funding obligations. And while we remain generally on track to achieve our overall goals, the cash requirements from the ratio and Hurricane Sandy put some additional pressure on our balance sheet. Looking now at 2013. Our financial plan is structured to improve the balance sheet, enhance liquidity and maintain investment-grade credit metrics. The plan initially focuses on reducing debt at our competitive companies, primarily FES and Allegheny Supply, by at least $1.5 billion. The proceeds of the Harrison-Pleasants transaction in West Virginia combined with asset sales are expected to be sufficient to fund the debt reduction. The assets we intend to sell are primarily our competitive hydro fleet, which includes nearly 1,180 megawatts that were initially in our plans to be sold in 2015. We're expecting to retire a combination of both tax-exempts bonds and taxable debt to achieve these debt reductions. While we have not looked to target taxable debt in recent years, it is now on our list of potential actions, as we weigh the redemption costs against the benefits of future interest savings from the current low-interest environment. On the liquidity front, we are also working to refinance short-term borrowings with long-term debt as appropriate at our utilities and possibly at the corporate level. This refinancing activity would term out some of our revolver borrowings and again, take advantage of today's historically low interest rates to position ourselves for the future. We're also working with our banks to extend the maturity of existing credit facilities totaling $5.5 billion for an additional year to 2018. We believe this is a comprehensive plan that moves us where we would like to be in terms of our credit metrics and once completed, would significantly improve the balance sheet, especially at our competitive operations. As Tony outlined, we are focused on growth across each of our businesses, including investments in new transmission projects and growing our competitive business. As we address these opportunities, we believe a modest amount of equity, late this year of up to $300 million subject to market and other conditions, will help to further strengthen our balance sheet and investment-grade metrics and support our growth initiatives. We will explore auctions, which may include implementing a dribble program this -- late this year to effectively address these ongoing requirements. Importantly, this level of equity will not take us off course from the guidance we've reaffirmed for 2013. Finally, while it is always subject to board approval, I will reiterate that we expect to maintain our dividend. Our regulated operations, distribution and transmission provide a strong foundation of earnings and cash, which support the dividend, and our competitive businesses further support the payout. As we move forward, we will continue to assess our operations and look for additional opportunities to reduce our cost. Most importantly, we remain well positioned to take advantage of opportunities created by expanded competitive markets and improved economic conditions. Now I'll ask the operator to open up the call for questions.