Mark Clark
Analyst · Credit Suisse Group
Thanks, Tony, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm going to walk you through our fourth quarter results, some of our 2010 metrics and then I'll share a few preliminary thoughts on 2011. As Tony said, our full year 2010 results were in line with our guidance, which was revised to the upper end of the original range in August. Also as Tony mentioned, we were able to offset some of the early year headwinds with a better-than-normal weather experienced later in the year and slightly increased industrial sales. These, and other positives coupled with a strong cash position, allowed us to address several legacy issues in light of the pending merger. With the belief that the merger would close in his first quarter, which is earlier than we originally anticipated, we removed several potential distractions by accelerating items such as costs associated with negotiating coal contracts, disposing of radioactive waste being stored at our nuclear units and remediating some legacy issues associated with the Mad River and Edgewater plants, which had been planned for subsequent years. In the aggregate, we moved $0.15 per share forward from the subsequent years, slightly less than half of that was associated with 2011. So even with the acceleration of these costs, we were able to remain within earnings guidance range. In short, we're very comfortable with where we ended the year. As I walk through our fourth quarter results, it may be helpful for you to refer to the Consolidated Report to the Financial Community we issued this morning. Excluding special items, normalized non-GAAP basic earnings for the quarter were $0.71 per share compared to $0.77 per share in the fourth quarter of 2009. On a GAAP basis, this quarter's earnings were $0.61 per share compared to $0.78 per share last year. As you'll find detailed on Page 16 of the consolidated report, four special items decreased this quarter's GAAP earnings by a total of $0.10 per share. By comparison, in the fourth quarter of 2009, special items increased GAAP earnings by $0.01 per share. The first of the 2010 special items was a $0.17 per share accounting impairment as a result of the Burger plant closing and additional costs related to the operational changes in several of our smaller coal-fired plants, which Tony previously mentioned. Importantly, these changes will result in cost savings that we expect will bring long-term benefits. The second special item was $0.07 per share charge related to merger transaction costs. In prior quarters, these costs will continue to be expensed as incurred. For the year, merger transaction costs totaled $0.15 per share. Third was a $0.02 per share impairment charge related to our nuclear decommissioning trust investments. And finally, a gain of $0.16 per share from the sale of approximately 150 megawatts representing a portion of the participation interest in OVEC. As you may recall, we also sold an interest representing approximately 200 megawatts in May of 2009. This most recent transaction leaves us with 110 megawatts, which we will continue to market. Now I'd like to outline the key drivers of our fourth quarter non-GAAP results starting with the positives. First is commodity margin, which increased earnings by $0.24 per share. A detailed summary of this item appears in the first three pages of the consolidated report including information on megawatt hour volumes and prices. Generation sales by our FirstEnergy Solutions subsidiary were 3.4 million megawatt hours above last year's period, or 23% increased. We are very pleased with the success of our competitive strategy. FES now serves nearly 1.5 million retail customers effectively tripling our competitive customer base year-over-year. Wholesale sales were up 1.2 million megawatt hours, or 58% compared to the fourth quarter of 2009. Generation output for the quarter was 23%, above the prior year quarter or 3.6 million megawatt hours. The majority of this increase came from our baseload fossil units, total generation output for the full year of 2010 was 75.2 million megawatt hours, which exceeded our original forecast and was a 14% increase from 2009. With increased generation output and higher sales levels, we incurred higher fuel and purchase power expenses during the quarter. The second positive fourth quarter driver was distribution deliveries. The economy and colder weather contributed to a 2% increase in overall deliveries, which benefited earnings by $0.03 per share. Residential customer usage increased slightly during the quarter, commercial deliveries were 2% higher than last year and industrial deliveries were up 3% compared to the fourth quarter of 2009, primarily due to higher usage by the steel industry. We continue seeing increased production at several steel plants in our region, as well as an increased operation at some of our automotive customers. For example, General Motors' large town plant ran three shifts in the fourth quarter of 2010 versus two shifts at the end of 2009. And the Ford Brookpark facility is operating two shifts instead of one. I'll add here that for the full year of 2010, total distribution sales were 108 million megawatt hours, that's up 6% from 102 million megawatt hours in 2009. The increase was principally a combination of favorable weather, helping residential sales and stronger industrial sales. The industrial sector increased by 8% year-over-year. At the end of 2010, industrial sales have recovered to about 90% of 2007's peak levels. As we continue to close that gap, the expectation is that we will begin to see prices strengthen, along with the growing demand. Returning to other fourth quarter drivers. Earnings increased by $0.04 per share from higher investment income generated by our nuclear decommissioning trust, $0.02 per share due to increased capitalized interest and $0.01 per share increase from lower depreciation expense. There were three notable items that add a negative impact on fourth quarter results. Higher general taxes, mostly revenue related, reduced earnings by $0.05 per share; the absence of an income tax adjustment that benefited last year's fourth quarter resulted in an 18% share earnings decrease compared to last year; and higher operation and maintenance costs decreased earnings by $0.18 per share. The quarter-over-quarter O&M increase primarily reflects accelerated expenditures in our generation business, as we mentioned earlier, and a shift in the nature of work performed in our Energy Delivery business from capital-type work in the fourth quarter of 2009 to activities that received expense treatment in 2010. While the timing issues increased expenses for the quarter, full year O&M was essentially flat when compared to 2009, as we continue to hold the line on cost. Now let me spend a few moments on full year 2010 pension expense. Pension expense decreased by $9 million compared to '09 helping 2010 earnings by $0.02 per share. OPEB expense decreased by $50 million or a benefit of $0.10 per share. The actual return on pension assets was 11.2% and on an ABO basis, the plan was 83% funded at the end of December 2010. For 2011, we are assuming a discount rate of 5.5% for pension and 5% for OPEB, both down from last year's rates. We are also lowering our pension asset return rate assumption from 8.5% to 8.25%. Like many companies, we are favorably affected by the tax legislation passed in December. We received, actually several days ago, incremental cash of approximately $60 million for 2010 and expect $300 million in 2011 and $200 million in 2012. In addition to the tax legislation, we will receive approximately $170 million in tax settlements dating back to 2001. When you also consider the memorandum of understanding for the anticipated sale of our Fremont facility and the expected 2011 free cash flow from operations, we are in a position to have a very strong free cash flow for the year. We expect to use this cash to continue to reduce the amount of our outstanding debt. We have previously communicated this important aspect of our overall financial strategy, and we are delivering on that promise. In 2011, we plan to continue strengthening the balance sheet by further reducing the amount of debt outstanding and building cash reserves. And so, despite the challenges we faced in 2010, including the decision to accelerate the reactor vessel head replacement at Davis-Besse and continued soft power prices, we made headwind in our debt reduction goals, we produced strong earnings and we positioned our competitive business to take advantage of future improvements in power prices. We believe we've laid a strong foundation for continued progress in these areas, as well as the integration of Allegheny Energy. As you know, teams of employees have worked throughout the year to prepare for the merger. We believe the combined company's 2011 outlook is solid and we are confident that we will achieve substantial merger synergies. We'll provide much more detail for 2011 and beyond after the merger is complete, but I wanted to share with you my early thoughts on how things are shaping up. On a final note, we look to schedule an analyst meeting once the merger closes, and we will communicate the date to the financial community as soon as we can. Thanks again for joining us today. We are certainly looking forward to a strong year in 2011, and I believe our prospects for future success are excellent. Now I'd like to open up the call to your questions. Thank you very much.