Frederick Smith
Management
This is Fred Smith speaking. Let me reiterate a point that we made several times and I spent a lot of time at our Investor Meeting last fall talking about, and that's our built-in shock absorbers. We have constructed FedEx recognizing that it's basically tied to the macroeconomy, and it's a cyclical company. And it's a company that, as Alan mentioned, requires a lot of capital assets. Accordingly, our structure allows us to flex down and the shock absorbers basically benefit the shareholders because these variable compensation programs, utilization of various fully depreciated assets in good times that can be put on the ground or in the yards. So we have all of that built in. And in fact, as Alan mentioned, as we go into FY '12, we are actually funding a lot of these programs, plus, we are funding significant expansions in the Express networks in Asia and EMEA. So managing down in any kind of a reasonable growth scenario is not a particular problem for FedEx. That's one of these important things that we think is a strategic decision that we made many years ago, and you just saw it during the recession. The company remained profitable during the worst downturns since the Great Depression. Now that wasn't without pain in a lot of orders, including people around this table and our frontline folks and the hours we flew and on down the line. But we have a pretty good system built in, in. On the economy, let me just remind everybody on the call that while we have a wonderful economist, Gene Huang, and great analytical capabilities, which is what Mike is talking to you about, unlike most economic forecasters, FedEx is actually talking to hundreds of thousands of customers. This is information that's infantry based. It's not 50,000 feet, it's based on what the folks that provide our volume are telling us. And the key driver of our business is industrial production. And in that regard, there's no question, as Mike said, we went through a brief soft patch here. About 40%, we would say, was related to the run-up in fuel price. And I can tell you having gone through this 6 times now in FedEx's history, when you get to the fuel prices of $4 a gallon at the pump, people began to retard their behavior. About 40% of it, we think, is related to the horrible tragedy in Japan and the interdiction of certain supply chains and reconfigurations just not being able to produce because the component parts weren't there, and about 20% was just sentiment related to these factors. So as the price of fuel is mitigated, some of the issues related to Japan have been improved, we believe that our economic outlook is reasonably correct.