John Fawcett
Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please go ahead
Thank you Ellen and good morning everyone. Net income for the third quarter on a GAAP basis was $132 million or $1.15 per common share, while income from continuing operations excluding noteworthy items was $131 million or $1.15 per common share this quarter up from $125 million or $1 per common share last quarter. Compared to the year ago quarter although income from continuing operations excluding noteworthy items decreased 6%, it is up nearly 13% on a per share basis reflecting the reduction in share count as we continue to return capital to shareholders. Excluding noteworthy items, the increase in net income from the prior quarter primarily reflects lower operating and income tax expense and no semiannual preferred dividend paid in the quarter, partially offset by a decline in other noninterest income and a higher credit provision. Continued strong new business origination volume resulted in 2% average loan and lease growth in our core portfolio. In addition, prepayments moderated this quarter. Total average loans and leases were flat reflecting the impact of the sale of the reverse mortgage portfolio in May which was nearly $1 billion all with the continued roll off of the noncore portfolios. As a reminder our core portfolios include all commercial banking portfolios except NACCO and the other consumer lending portfolio within consumer banking. We have also included a page in the back of our earnings release to help you with this reconciliation. As shown on Slide 5 of the presentation, we have four noteworthy items within the continuing operations resulting from our strategic initiatives, although they mostly offset one another. Of note, this quarter we took a $16 million after tax impairment charge on the indemnification asset which represents the projected reimbursable losses due from the FDIC under our loss share agreement related to covered loans acquired from OneWest. The loss share agreement expires in March 2019 and during the quarter we performed a loan by loan review of the underlying mortgages providing better visibility into the expected cash flows. The impairment reflects a reduction in the indemnification asset to the amounts we no longer expect to receive. Secondly, we updated our valuation analysis for a held for sale assets in China with new information reflecting better than expected portfolio performance and market pricing resulting in $11 million after tax benefit. Both of these items are reported in other revenue within other noninterest income. The other two noteworthy items included a $3 million after-tax debt redemption charge related to our liability management access this quarter, and a $6 million after-tax benefit from suspended depreciation related to the NACCO disposition. We closed the NACCO transaction on October 4, which is now expected to result in a pretax gain of approximately $30 million to $35 million in the fourth quarter. We sold $1.2 billion of operating lease assets and received proceeds of $1.1 billion which was net of local debt that was assumed by the buyer or paid off at closing. We will use about $300 million of the net proceeds to terminate the remaining total return swap or TRS and related rail securitization. The TRS was a legacy holding company financing facility put in place during the financial crisis. It had become highly efficient in that it encumbered almost $800 million of our North American rail cars in a complicated funding vehicle, yet only provided net funding of about $300 million. In addition, recent legislative changes in the foreign jurisdiction of the legal entities where the TRS was based would have increased our annual tax provision by $3 million this year and would have had an ongoing impact through the term of the facility. The termination of the TRS facilitated by the net proceeds from the NACCO sale will enable us to optimize our taxes as well as our funding structure as we redeem the underlying ABS designated as a reference obligation within the TRS and sell $350 million of the newly unencumbered rail assets to CIT Bank where there is more efficient deposit based financing. We will also further reduce unsecured debt. On October 19, we submitted a redemption notice for $150 million of the final [ph] 2020 maturities and we expect to renew up to an additional $350 million of unsecured debt once the rail assets are sold to the bank. In the fourth quarter we will incur a pretax charge of approximately $70 million to $75 million on the total return swap termination which reflects the present value of the facility fee on what would have been the remaining facility term of almost 10 years. We will also incur about $15 million to $20 million in pretax charges in unsecured debt extinguishment costs. However, with all these actions we will realize a go forward benefit in interest expense which in 2019 is estimated to be about $45 million. We will also deploy a portion of the remaining net proceeds to repurchase common stock which was already contemplated in our current $750 million board approved authorization. I will now go into further detail on our financial results for the quarter. Please note that in this discussion I will refer to our results in continuing operations excluding noteworthy items unless otherwise noted. Turning to Slide 6 of the presentation, net finance revenue was relatively flat in the prior quarter reflecting higher net operating lease income offset by higher deposit costs. Net operating lease income this quarter included an $8.5 million customer prepayment in our rail business where last quarter we recognized a similar $4 million benefit. Going forward, we do not expect to continue to see meaningful prepayment benefits in the rail portfolio. Net finance revenue also benefited from lower lease maintenance costs which tend to be variable and driven partially from our efforts to reposition railcars as we renew leases. Compared to the year ago quarter, net finance revenue was down $12 million primarily due to a reduction in net purchase accounting increase in OPAA [ph] as higher finding costs were mostly offset by higher income on our loans, leases, and investments. Turning to Slide 7, although net finance revenue was flat, net finance margin improved by 7 basis points compared to the prior quarter to 336. Primarily driven by improved asset yields, the deployment of cash which was elevated last quarter and the rail prepayment benefit which was partially offset by the increase in deposit costs. Higher rates on our loans, investments and mix of assets benefited the margin by 9 basis points this quarter. The yield on our interest bearing cash improved from a higher average fed funds rate this quarter and the investment portfolio yield stayed relatively flat despite the continued repositioning of our higher yielding, higher risk weighted assets. Loan yields improved modestly as higher rates on our floating rate loans were mostly offset by the full quarter impact from the sale of the reversed mortgages which were higher yielding. Also lower average cash balances which were elevated last quarter from the reversed mortgage portfolio sale positively impacted the margin. The higher customer prepayment and lower maintenance costs from our rail business that I mentioned before drove a 7 basis point improvement. Deposit rates increased this quarter reducing margin by 13 basis points reflecting continued upwards market trends. Lower borrowing cost contributed 2 basis points to the margin as lower average federal home loan bank borrowings were offset by the unsecured debt maturity extension trade we executed last quarter. The decline in net finance margin from the year ago quarter, reflected lower net purchase accounting accretion while higher yields on our loans and investments were only partially offset by higher deposit costs. Turning to Slide 8, other noninterest income decreased $9 million compared to the prior quarter which as I mentioned last quarter included $11 million in aggregate benefits from the reverse mortgage business and a reserve release related to the OneWest acquisition. Fee income increased from the prior quarter reflecting higher capital markets fees while factoring commissions were up reflecting seasonally higher volumes. Turning to Slide 9, operating expenses decreased by $4 million from the prior quarter reflecting lower compensation costs and professional fees while also taking into account a $5 million benefit in the prior quarter from the reversal of an international tax related reserve. We remain on track to achieve our 2018 annual operating expense target of $1 billion, $50 million. As a reminder this excludes intangibles and restructuring costs. Slide 10 shows our consolidated average balance sheet. We have made significant progress over the past year deploying our cash to build out the investment portfolio, grow our loans and leases, improve our funding mix, and return significant capital to shareholders. Compared to the prior quarter average earning assets were down approximately $850 million reflecting the deployment of cash from the sale of the reverse mortgage portfolio in the second quarter of 2018 into liability management and capital actions. The decrease in secured borrowings primarily reflects the reduction in Federal Home Loan Bank debt, while the decline in equity reflects our stock repurchases of $291 million. Slide 11 provides more detail on average loans and leases by division. As I mentioned earlier, we saw strong origination volumes this quarter which resulted in 2% average growth in our core portfolios. Commercial banking average loans and leases were up 1% compared to the prior quarter and 4% from the year ago quarter, both reflecting growth in commercial finance, business capital and rail offset by a reduction in real estate finance. In commercial finance average loans and leases were up 2% this quarter and 7% from the year ago quarter. Although the middle market continues to be challenging, we have remained disciplined well finding attractive origination opportunities. Origination volumes were up significantly from the prior and year ago quarters and prepayments moderated. Portfolio yields improved reflecting the increase in LIBOR although the competitive environment continues to put pressure on spreads. We have had particular success in growing origination volumes in the healthcare and energy verticals and in various sub industries within C&I. In addition, asset backed originations remain over 50% of total new business volume which we believe will contribute to continued solid credit performance in the portfolio. Finally the pipeline continues to look good going into the fourth quarter. Real estate finance assets were down 1% this quarter and 4% from the year ago quarter reflecting our disciplined approach to the current environment. As I mentioned last quarter, the market has become more competitive as CMBS and debt funds are more active. We were also seeing a growing presence from the commercial real estate CLO market as they repositioned bridge loans and fully cash flow in loans for the first time contributing to further spread compression. Regarding new business originations we have deep expertise in our target markets and continue to pick our spot amid challenging market conditions. North American rail assets were up 1% as new deliveries were partially offset by depreciation and portfolio management activities. We continue to see momentum building in the industrial sector and rail loadings were up again this quarter. The general surplus of equipment across North America has declined from last year but remains high. The rail team has been successful in increasing utilization in the current environment which remained at around 98% this quarter demonstrating the benefits of our young and high quality fleet, our portfolio management expertise, and our strong customer service. We continue to see improvement in renewal rates on freight cars and some modest improvement in tank car rates and terms resulting from opportunities in the Western Canada crude oil markets, refined products in Mexico, and for retrofitted tank cars serving multiple markets. Overall lease rate on the mix of cars renewing repriced down to 15% which was better than our guidance this quarter. Nonetheless, we continue to expect leases to reprice down on average 20% to 30% through 2019 driven by continued pressure from tank car lease rates which are renewing at a faster pace and at rates that are down from peak levels. Business capital average loans and leases grew 3% this quarter with growth across all of our equipment lending businesses and seasonal growth in commercial services. Compared to the year ago quarter, business capital grew 10%. Origination volume remained strong and business confidence remains high. We continue to gain momentum across all our platforms from the investments we made in our sales force as well as our technology that differentiates us in this space. Pricing has remained relatively constant as the leases and loans are predominantly fixed rate. As a result the increase in funding cost has put pressure on margins, but we have recently increased leasing rates in select markets which will take time to work through the portfolio. In consumer banking, growth in our other consumer banking businesses was more than offset by the run off of the legacy consumer mortgage portfolio and the sale of the reverse mortgage portfolio in the second quarter. Average loans in our core mortgage and small business lending businesses increased by almost $300 million and 9% this quarter from the continued strong originations in the retail and correspondent lending channels and we continue to experience an increase in loans from our SBA lending platform. Overall, the lending environment remains highly competitive across all our businesses and despite the challenges we are leveraging our proven origination asset management capabilities, in industry in collateral expertise and strong credit and structuring skills to find attractive opportunities to put our capital to work. Slide 12 highlights our average funding mix. Compared to the prior quarter total average borrowed funds and deposits declined reflecting a reduction of Federal Home Loan Bank advances and structured borrowings partially offset by deposit growth. Our cost of fund increased this quarter reflecting an increase in average deposit rates, primarily from the growth of our Direct Bank which was partially offset by the reduction in secured borrowings. Overall borrowing costs also reflect the extension of our unsecured debt. During the quarter we issued $500 million of four and three quarter 5.5 year debt and used the proceeds to redeem a similar amount of debt at 3 and 7 [ph] due in February 2019. While the weighted average rate on our unsecured debt increased 10 basis points, 505 this quarter we extended our weighted average unsecured debt maturity to almost 5 years from 4.5 years. Slide 13 illustrates the deposit mix by type and channel. Quarter-over-quarter our average deposits increased approximately $275 million to $31.2 billion reflecting growth in our direct bank of $700 million or 5% primarily offset by a reduction in broker and commercial deposits while branch deposits remained flat. The cost of our deposits increased 15 basis points this quarter as we took advantage of opportunities to get in front of increases in market rates and grew short term CDs in both online and branch channels. As a result the cumulative beta on deposits increased 44% over the past 12 months and to 21% since the first rate hike of the current tightening cycle in December of 2015 and we expect the trailing 12 month betas to be around 50% next quarter with continued gradual increases into 2019. Slide 14 highlights our credit trends. The credit provision this quarter was $38 million compared to $33 million last quarter and $15 million in the year ago quarter. This quarter's provision reflected 35 basis points of net charge offs in line with our near term outlook. The provision also included an increase in reserves resulting from asset growth and a higher level of non-accrual loans within commercial finance where changes the non-accruals have some variability. Net charge offs in non-accruals are not demonstrating any particular parts to weakness. The credit environment remains stable and new business originations continued to come in at better risk ratings than the overall risk rating of the performing portfolio. Turning to capital on Slide 15, in the third quarter we repurchased $291 million of common equity or 5.5 million shares at an average price of $52.91 under our current $750 million repurchase authorization. We ended the quarter with $111 million common shares and a common equity Tier I ratio of 12.3%. So far this quarter we have repurchased $188 million of common equity or 3.8 million shares at an average price of $49.63 and intend to complete most if not all of the remaining authorization by the end of the year. We expect to achieve a common equity Tier I ratio of about 12% by the end of the fourth quarter which also takes into consideration the reduction in risk weighted assets from the NACCO sale and lower on and off balance sheet back doing assets that were seasonally elevated this quarter. Our capital levels remain strong and we remain committed to achieving the upper end of our common equity Tier I ratio of 10% to 11% in 2019. We will continue to review our options to deploy capital as efficiently and as prudently as possible while working within the confines of the Supervisory Review Process. Slide 16 highlights our key performance metrics both on a reported basis as well as excluding noteworthy items. Our return on tangible common equity on continuing operations excluding noteworthy items improved to 978 and if you normalize for the semiannual preferred dividend that is paid in the second and fourth quarters, our return on tangible common equity would have been 944. We remain committed to achieving an ROTCE of 9.5% to 10% in the fourth quarter and 11% to 12% in the medium term. Before I turn it back to Ellen, I wanted to give you some thoughts in the fourth quarter outlook which is on Slide 17. We expect low single digit quarterly growth in our core portfolios. That said, we expect total average earnings assets to decline from the NACCO sale and to runoff the legacy consumer mortgage portfolio. We expect net finance margin to be closure to the middle of the 2018 target range of 320 to 340 as this quarter included a prepayment benefit in [indiscernible]. This outlook also reflects the impact of the NACCO sale and timing of liability management actions. We expect operating expenses to be down as we achieve our 1050 target for the year. We continue to expect net charge offs to be within the annual target range of 35 to 45 basis points and we expect the effective tax rate before the impact of discrete items to be 26% to 28%. Finally, we do plan to provide 2019 outlook comments on our next earnings call. And with that, I will turn it back over to Ellen.