Steve Gunby
Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead
Thank you, Mollie. Good morning to everyone and thank you all for joining us. Well, I'm sure you've all noticed that it's the end of October and COVID is still with us. And I'm guessing that's just as troubling for you and as it is for me. I think most of us knew during the summer that the evidence suggested there would be a good chance that COVID would still be with us at this point. I don't think any of us really expected that it would be completely gone, but I guess most of us secretly hoped it would and at least had some expectations it would be better than it is today. So in addition to hoping that you are doing well and your loved ones as well, let me thank you during these complicated times for the continued attention you're showing our company. Let me also use this opportunity to thank some of the FTI folks who may be joining this call for the incredible efforts that have continued all year and continued into this quarter. Our company, as I'll talk about in a moment, we're in terrific shape. We're not in perfect shape. There's no company during COVID is in perfect shape, but we are in terrific shape. And that has only been possible because of the extraordinary efforts by our people, efforts to support clients, to support each other from home, efforts that collectively have put us in a strong position not only to weather COVID, but in my view to soar coming out of this. Today, as usual, I will let Ajay take you through the details of the quarter, but let me upfront share a couple of comments; one on the revision to guidance and secondly, and at least as important, why I continue, notwithstanding that revision, to be so positive about this company's future. Let me start with the adjustment to guidance. It is essentially an adjustment to our expectations about the fourth quarter. The third quarter, though different from expectations and some specifics, did not come out too different from what we expected in aggregate. But at the end of the last quarter, we had hopes that the evolution of COVID will allow for a stronger fourth quarter than we do today. So let me go into that in a little more detail. As you know, I think our fourth quarter results are typically our weakest, considerably less strong than the prior three quarters. For example, if you look at the last five years, our fourth quarter EPS is roughly two-thirds of the prior three quarters because of holidays and some end-of-year factors. This year, we thought the evolution of COVID might allow for better. Back in July, we suspected that COVID would still be here in the fourth quarter. But we, and I'm guessing most of you, did not believe it was going to be as present as it is today. And therefore, we hoped for a somewhat more rapid unfolding of the opening of courts, more rapid de-rejudification of the legal system, more of an opening of cross-border travel, all of which, of course, would allow a faster return to normal for some of the businesses that were hurt by COVID. We also thought that if that didn't happen at the speed we hoped for, on the other side we would see a continuation of the extraordinary strength we had in our restructuring business in the second quarter. What has happened in reality is both of these but unfortunately to a somewhat lesser extent than we had expected. First, in terms of businesses that were negatively affected by COVID, they are in large part starting to come back. We have started to see some signs of improvement in FLC and in other parts of our business that have been affected by travel restrictions and court closures. But that recovery is at a considerably slower pace than we had hoped. It's just not the hockey stick we expected to see begin in the third quarter and continue into the fourth quarter. Second, in terms of the restructurings and bankruptcies, last quarter, if you recall, we talked about the fact that there is uncertainty – there was uncertainty around that. We talked about how we could, at a scenario where the government actions caused a temporary pause on bankruptcies and restructurings, at least in some parts of our world. We believe then and continue to believe now that the restructuring market is going to be here for a considerable amount of time. But we also understood that there could be waves because of government policies. For example, the aggressive monetary stimulus that we have seen can affect or at least seriously delay bankruptcies and restructuring activity. What has happened here recently is that market forces began to play out more in favor of loose money and against restructuring activity than we had expected, not extraordinarily worse but around-the-edges worse. You can see that in our third quarter results, but you can also see it very vividly in external data. Notably, if you look at, for example, August and September Chapter 11 filings and defaults, they fell to just over half the level that they were between May and July. And I think the reason for that is essentially the loose money. The loose money has allowed for an unprecedented issuance of speculative-grade bonds this year and at remarkably reasonable rates. If you look at the rates right now, they are not too different from where they were pre-COVID, and the spreads compared to March have halved. And that has made a difference in the third quarter, and it's obviously making a difference at this point in time. The consequence of that is not that our restructuring business is doing poorly. To the contrary, it is still experiencing considerably higher demand than it did pre-COVID, but it is just not as strong as we had hoped and expected back in July. And it is not as strong enough to offset the slower pace of recovery we are seeing in the other parts of our business. So the combination of COVID being more significant and longer impact on parts of our business and the loose money have a slowing effect on the pace of bankruptcy filings and other restructuring activities, together means that we just no longer feel confident in an anomalous fourth quarter, a fourth quarter that's higher or as high as the first three quarters of the year. And if you build in a more typical ratio of fourth quarters compared to prior quarters, you get to the $5.25 to $5.75 range for adjusted EPS that Ajay will talk about as opposed to the $5.50 to $6 that we had before. So we've moved our guidance there. That's all I was going to say on guidance. Let me move on to what I guess is the next set of questions on many people's minds, which is so what does that mean going forward? How does that play out? And I'm guessing there are two versions of that question. One is, how does that play out near term? And two, does that change the fundamental trajectory of the company longer term? Let me talk to both of those with a caveat that perhaps counter-intuitively, it is easier to predict the medium and long term than it is the short term. I'm sure that's pretty counterintuitive, but that's my experience in this business. And the reason for that is, in the short term, we can be and are buffeted by factors such as those I just described, factors that are external to us; loose money, M&A trends, regulatory activity, et cetera. Whereas my view of our history is that over the long term in this business, over the long term whether we perform or not, is much more of a function of us, of what we do, which is ultimately in our control. If we are well positioned around the core issues our clients are facing, if we have great people with great brands and if we are in the market in an effective way, my experience is, and I think the data show, we grow over any medium term. The factors we can control over the medium term outweigh the short-term factors. As a result, in my mind though, there is uncertainty in the short term. I am at least as confident about the long term as when we went into COVID. In the short term, of course, the trends we are seeing could continue. We are seeing a gradual strengthening of the businesses that are slow now, but it's gradual. We don't see anything that suggests we're going to have – go backwards, but we also don't see a current acceleration of those trends. So we could be below our long-term expectations for some subsets of our business for a while. And so, of course, the loose money and the government stimulus could continue to erode the strong performance of Corp Fin for a while. I should note, however, that that can reverse itself incredibly fast, for example, with a couple large bankruptcies or restructurings happening, we win then. But for sure, it is possible that loose money could affect us for a while, notwithstanding our belief that loose money cannot ultimately offset forever the underlying economics of businesses. So absolutely, there are things that are out of our control and those things could mean there are slowness that continues into the first half of the year. But over any medium or long-term period, one has to believe there's going to be litigation in the world, there's going to be investigations in the world, there are going to be tribunals to try cases. Juries will eventually be allowed once again to sit in the same room at the same point in time. There will be disputes. We will have an M&A activity. And the underlying economic realities will dictate that there are bankruptcies and restructurings. So over any medium term, our results, in my view, will be much less affected by forces outside our control and more dictated by questions like, are we well positioned? Are we strengthening our businesses? Are we going after the right adjacencies? On the people side, are we retaining the best people? Are we developing great people? Are we an attractive place for people to join? As you know, we felt pretty good about the answers to those questions going into COVID. In terms of the jobs and awards we had won around the world, the list had never been longer or more impressive. We had extended into key new adjacencies that were supporting our business; cybersecurity, business transformation, public affairs and others. We had expanded and enhanced our geographical footprint. We had record numbers of promotions and our ability to attract senior talent from the outside, as shown by the powerful number of senior hires that we have achieved, had never been as strong. And a consequence of that, I'm sure you all remember, was unprecedented organic growth for this company in 2018 and '19. Double digit top line growth that drove record earnings. And even if one discounts some of that growth as anomalous or a catch-up from prior years or you're having slower growth this year, our multiyear trajectory now for an extended period of time still calculates it to be an impressive set of numbers. Important this year, notwithstanding COVID and notwithstanding all of its challenges, we have continued to invest between each of those critical levers. We have continued to support clients and what are turning out to be high-profile, brand-building assignments. The largest bankruptcies globally, mega deals with antitrust implications, largest investigations happening in different parts around the world; Asia, Germany, the U.S. Companies facing antitrust cases related to data privacy and companies at the center of the COVID pandemic working towards a vaccine, among many other high-profile engagements. As a result, we have deepened the most key client relationships in our firm and continue to win industry accolades, from leading The Deal Bankruptcy Tables for the 12th consecutive year, to having more employees named to who's who on Consulting Experts Guide than any other firm globally for the fifth consecutive year, to ALM recently naming us a pacesetter for the financial crisis management, among many others. Importantly, in the face of COVID, we have promoted more people this year than ever before. Our employee engagement scores are the highest we have ever had. Our retention rate is the highest we have ever had. And our attractiveness to leading experts at other firms who now see FTI as a fabulous platform for advancing their careers, as measured either by the number of hires we've done or probably more currently than not – our phone is ringing – has never been higher. As I'm sure you know, not all firms have gotten through COVID as well as we have thus far, and some of our competitors are experiencing other stresses. And as a consequence, the number of conversations we're having with terrific people whose culture fits with us, who want to join us is powerful indeed. As a consequence, in the face of this COVID, we have committed too and achieved record headcount growth, leaving us with a strength of team around the world that I believe is unprecedented in this company's history. As a result, notwithstanding the incredible growth we were experiencing coming into COVID, today I feel at least as bullish, if not more, about our prospects coming out of it. With that, let me turn the call over to Ajay to take you through the quarter in more detail. Ajay?