Ajay Sabherwal
Analyst · William Blair. Please go ahead
Thank you, Steve. Good morning everybody. In my prepared remarks I will take you through our results for 2018 and our financial guidance for 2019, but first let me begin with some highlights. As Steve just discussed, we had a great year. In fact, a record year where every one of our business segments grew both revenues and EBITDA and at healthy levels. Revenues for 2018 of $2.03 billion increased $220.1 million or 12.2%, 2018 GAAP EPS $3.93 compared to $2.75 in 2017. Full year 2018 adjusted EPS were $4 up 72.4% compared to $2.32 in the prior year. Full year 2018 adjusted EBITDA of $265.7 million grew 38.4% compared to $192 million in 2017. Adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.1% improved 250 basis points from 10.6% in 2017. Before I take you through the fourth quarter, let me share with you my perspectives on the year. The excellent performance in 2018 resulted from organic growth with strong utilization. Our corporate finance, FLC and strategic communications segments grew revenues by double-digit percentages with corporate finance up 17.1%, Strat Comm up 16% and FLC up 12.5% year-over-year. After delivering record revenues in the first three quarters of 2018, we have anticipated a slowdown in the fourth quarter. We did see sequential slowdowns in economic consulting and technology as large engagements that led to strong third quarter results were completed. However, contrary to our expectations, we saw sequential revenue growth in corporate finance, FLC and strategic communications. This resulted in the fourth quarter being our third consecutive quarter with revenues over $500 million. In fact, the fourth quarter of 2018 revenues were the highest fourth quarter revenues ever for the company. Despite the year-over-year increase in revenues for the quarter, adjusted EBITDA declined compared to the prior year quarter primarily because of increased compensation and SG&A expenses. In Q4, we trued up bonus accruals to reflect the record year and costs were also boosted by increased headcount in the third and fourth quarters. Through the first half of 2018, our headcount was relatively flat, but in the second half hiring ramped up. As of December 31, billable headcount increased by 183 professionals a 5.1% year-over-year increase. Non billable headcount decreased by 24 primarily due to the sale of Ringtail in September. 2018 SG&A expenses of $465.6 million compared to $432 million in 2017, the year-over-year increase in SG&A resulted from many areas and initiatives including record results that drove higher variable compensation, investments in regional leadership and key account programs, an increase in rent and occupancy costs, and an increase in bad debt proportionate to higher revenues. Having said that, SG&A as a percentage of revenues declined 90 basis points from 23.9% of revenues in the prior year to 23% of revenues in 2018. I will remind you that in 2017, we took several headcount and real estate related cuts that resulted in special charges of $40.9 million but did not impact adjusted EBITDA. Noteworthy, in 2018, there were no such actions or special charges. Our 2018 effective tax rate of 27.5% was almost unchanged compared to 27.6% in 2017, which excluded the $44.9 million discrete tax benefit from the adoption of the 2017 U.S. Tax Act. In 2018, despite U.S. tax reform, which reduced U.S. federal tax rates from 35% to 21%, our tax rate was relatively flat year-over- year as we benefited from a higher mix of earnings in foreign jurisdictions with lower tax rates. Overall, as you might expect, we are extremely pleased with these results. Now I will turn to fourth quarter results. For the quarter, revenues of $505 million increased $37.3 million or 8% compared to $467.7 million in the prior year quarter. GAAP EPS of $0.61 includes the $9.1 million loss on early extinguishment of debt related to the redemption of our $300 million 6% senior notes, which decreased EPS by $0.17 and $2.1 million of non-cash interest expense related to our convertible notes, which also decreased EPS by $0.05 cents. This compares to GAAP EPS of $1.78 in the fourth quarter of 2017. As a reminder, fourth quarter of 2017 EPS included a 2017 Tax Act benefit of $44.9 million, which increased EPS by $1.19, which was then partially offset by a $10.8 million special charge related to headcount reductions, which reduced EPS by $0.19. Fourth quarter 2018 adjusted EPS of $0.83 which excludes the loss in early extinguishment of debt and non-cash interest expense compared to $0.78 in the prior year quarter. Net income for the quarter was $23.7 million compared to $66.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2017. The decrease was largely due to the $44.9 million discrete tax benefit in 2017 related to U.S. tax reform. Adjusted EBITDA was $53.7 million or 10.6% of revenues compared to $55.5 million or 11.9% of revenues in the prior year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA declined compared to the prior year quarter due to an increase in compensation and SG&A expenses. Now turning to our performance at the segment level, in corporate finance and restructuring, revenues of $144.8 million increased 10.9% compared to Q4 of 2017. The increase in revenues was primarily due to higher demand for business transformation and transaction services. In fact, our business transformation and transaction services made up 48% of corporate finances fourth quarter revenues which compares to 40% of revenues in the prior year quarter. Adjusted segment EBITDA was $24.3 million or 16.8% of revenue compared to $25.8 million or 19.7% of revenues in the prior year quarter. Adjusted segment EBITDA declined as the increase in revenues was offset by higher compensation and an increase in SG&A expenses. Sequentially, revenues increased 6.9% for corporate finance as we continue to win an increasing share of restructuring opportunities in the U.S. even though the U.S. restructuring market remains subdued. Moving on to FLC, revenues of $132.1 million increased 9.3% compared to the prior year quarter. This was largely driven by increased demand for our construction solutions and dispute services. Adjusted segment EBITDA was $21.5 million or 16.3% of revenues compared to $23.6 million or 19.5% of revenues in the prior year quarter. Adjusted segment EBITDA declined as the increase in revenues was offset by higher compensation and an increase in SG&A. Sequentially, revenues increased 4.3% as we saw improved demand for our operations and advisory offerings within our health solutions practice and for our dispute services. Economic consulting revenues of $128.4 million increased 6.1% compared to Q4 of '17. The increase in revenues was primarily due to higher demand for anti-trust and financial economic services. Adjusted segment EBITDA was $12.1 million or 9.4% of revenues compared to $14.3 million or 11.8% of revenues in the prior year quarter. Adjusted segment EBITDA was down due to higher compensation. Sequentially, both revenues and adjusted segment EBITDA declined as the surge in demand for M&A related anti-trust services that resulted in near record revenues for the segment in the third quarter declined as those engagements rolled off. In technology, revenues of $41.7 million increased 2% compared to Q4 of 2017. The increase in revenues was largely due to higher demand for consulting services primarily related to our information governance, privacy and security offering, which was partially offset by a $2.8 million decline in licensing revenues related to the Ringtail divestiture. Adjusted segment EBITDA was $2.7 million or 6.4% of revenues compared to $3 million or 7.3% of revenues in the prior year quarter. Adjusted segment EBITDA was down slightly as the increase in revenues and lower SG&A primarily related to the decline in R&D expenses was more than offset by higher compensation reflecting both increased variable compensation and the hiring of senior professionals in various countries. Sequentially, the declines on both the top and bottom-line are related to the roll off of the large M&A related second request engagements that contributed to a very strong third quarter for technology. Lastly in strategic communications revenues of $58 million increased 6.7% compared to Q4 of 2017. The increase in revenues was primarily due to increased demand for both retainer and project-based services. Adjusted segment EBITDA of $11.3 million or 19.5% of revenues compared to $10.5 million or 19.4% of revenues in the prior year quarter. The increase in adjusted segment EBITDA was due to higher revenues which was only partially offset by increase in variable compensation in SG&A expenses. Sequentially, strategic communications delivered growth on both the top and bottom-line capping off a tremendous year for us. I will now discuss certain cash flow and balance sheet items. Net cash provided by operating activities of $230.7 million as of December 31, 2018, compared to $147.6 million at December 31, 2017. Free cash flow of $198.4 million compared to free cash flow of $115.6 million in the prior year. The increase was primarily due to higher cash collections from increased revenues which was partially offset by an increase in cash paid for salaries and benefits and higher income tax payments. During the quarter, we spent $26.5 million to repurchase 418,728 shares of stock at an average price of $63.31. On February 21, 2019, the Board of Directors authorized an additional $100 million for an aggregate authorization of $400 million. As of February 22, 2019, we had purchased 6.2 million shares at an average price per share of $40.10. For an aggregate cost of approximately $249 million, leaving us with approximately $151 million available for share repurchases under the program. Turning to our 2019 guidance, as usual, we are providing revenues, GAAP EPS and adjusted EPS guidance for the year. Starting with revenues, we estimate that revenues for 2019 will be between $2 billion and $2.1 billion. We expect our GAAP EPS, which includes the non-cash interest expense related to our convertible notes of approximately $0.17 per share to range between $3.33 and $3.83. We expect full year 2019 adjusted EPS which excludes the impact of the non-cash interest expense to range between $3.50 and $4. In 2019, we expect our effective tax rate to range between 27% and 29%. Our 2019 guidance assumes low revenue growth compared to a record 2018, as we continue to have the expectation that our intake of and success rate in winning business may moderate. After a year where revenues grew 12.2% and adjusted EPS grew 72.4%, we believe it is prudent to moderate expectations. Additionally, we have higher costs related to our increased headcount particularly at the senior levels who as Steve just said can often take 12 to 18 months to become fully accretive. At the end of January 2019, we had 513 Senior Managing Directors, which include our most recent round of promotes and lateral SMB hires and compares to the 439 SMDs we had at the end of 2017. And we are finding opportunities to hire more. Finally, guidance is also shaped by our relatively fixed cost structure, which means that small shifts in revenue have a much larger impact both positive and negative on EPS in the short term. I want to emphasize though that the strength of the last few quarters is continuing in 2019. Our guidance assumes and we expect the first half of 2019 to be stronger than the second half of 2019. A few closing remarks on why we are confident about our prospects before we open the call up to questions. First, whilst there is no surge in restructuring or a huge up tick in financial fraud, there is dislocation taking place around the world that creates opportunities for FTI. This dislocation creates the need for our professionals who are the leading experts in their respective fields to help our clients overcome and resolve critical issues. Second, several jobs ending at the same time can cause volatility in our earnings. This is part of the reason we are prudent in our guidance. But let me assure you, our practitioners are working hard to win the largest opportunities in the market. Lastly, our balance sheet has never been stronger. This strength gives us the flexibility to allocate capital and create shareholder value in numerous ways including organic investments, acquisitions when we see the right ones and share repurchases. This is the sixth quarter in a row that we have come out ahead of our own expectations and I hope that we can continue to exceed expectations for our shareholders, our employees and our clients for many quarters to come. With that, let's open the call up for your questions.