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FuelCell Energy, Inc. (FCEL)

Q2 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, Jun 9, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the FuelCell Energy reports second quarter 2016 results conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. [Operator Instructions] I would like to introduce your host for today's conference, Mr. Kurt Goddard, Vice President, Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

Kurt Goddard

Analyst

Good morning and welcome to the second quarter 2016 earnings call for FuelCell Energy. Yesterday evening, FuelCell Energy released financial results for the second quarter of 2016. The earnings release as well as a presentation that will be referenced during this earnings call is available on the Investor Relations section of the company Web site at www.fuelcellenergy.com. A replay of this call will be available two hours after its conclusion on the company Web site. Before proceeding with the call, I would like to remind everyone that this call is being recorded and that the discussion today will contain forward-looking statements, including the company's plans and expectations for the continuing development and commercialization of our fuel cell technology. I would like to direct listeners to read the company's cautionary statement on forward-looking information and other risk factors in our filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Delivering remarks today will be Chip Bottone, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Mike Bishop, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Chip Bottone. Chip?

Chip Bottone

Analyst

Thank you, Kurt. Good morning, everyone, and welcome. Please turn to slide four, Q2 2016 highlights. One key aspect of our strategy is to seek relationships with the leading and largest companies in our markets, whether as strategic partners or customers. While this may be challenging at times and requires patience, it builds credibility and is very productive in the long run. Our May 5 joint announcement with ExxonMobil is an excellent example of this strategy. By aligning with the global leader in sequestration, economical and efficient carbon capture using fuel cells is a potential game-changing development. ExxonMobil possesses world-class research and development capabilities as well as global reach and extensive resources. We are understandably excited about the prospects for advancing our fuel cell carbon capture solution with ExxonMobil. Our project development team has been advancing numerous multi-megawatt projects. As a result, more than 125 MW of projects have been bid competitively into various RFPs. Also, we anticipate additional multi-megawatt projects will be bid this summer. I will address this very active and attractive pipeline in detail later in the call. Recently, we completed the commissioning of a high-efficiency, hybrid fuel cell power plant and a natural gas pressure let-down station. The power plant and let-down station is owned by our peak customer, United Illuminating, now a subsidiary of AVANGRID. Combining its fuel cell plant with an energy recovery generator, the system showcases the versatility and efficiency of our proprietary designs and our value proposition for gas pipeline operators. Engineer to recover energy that would normally be lost during the gas let-down pressure reduction process, our solution provides electrical efficiencies of 60% or higher by converting under-used energy into electricity. During the second quarter, we continued to optimize our installed base. As we will discuss in more detail later in the call, we do not expect any further charges from actions like this in 2016. As our company grows, certain projects undertaken for sound reasons years ago may no longer make sense today. These optimization actions address changing customer circumstances and position us for future expected margin expansion in our services business. We’re moving forward with the first phase of our planned two-phase expansion of our North American manufacturing facility. This prudently timed and financed capacity expansion provides near-term operating cost reductions as well as ensures that we meet future demand forecasted to arise from RFP awards and the potential for global applications. To support our growth, we’re continuing to strengthen and diversify our capital structure. This was illustrated by the recent announcement that we closed a long-term loan facility with Hercules Capital, a leading debt provider. I will update you our activity and markets in greater detail after Mike reviews our financial results for the quarter. Mike?

Michael Bishop

Analyst

Thank you, Chip. Good morning and thank you for joining our call today. Please turn to slide five titled financial summary. FuelCell Energy reported total revenues for the second quarter of 2016 of $28.6 million comparable to the prior year period. For the second quarter of 2016, a gross loss of $200,000 was incurred compared to a gross profit of $2 million for the same period last year. Higher service expense recognized in the quarter and lower Advanced Technology activity in this period negatively impacted margins. Financial results include two non-recurring charges totaling approximately $2 million related to service agreements for legacy projects. One charge was related to the early termination of a sub-megawatt installation that we chose to exit. The original waste gas solution at this installation was no longer possible, so exiting the sub-megawatt site made sense at this time. The other charge was also related to a legacy project involving a final extension of the service contract at the customer's option. The customer likes this project, although the service agreement profitability profile is not consistent with our current agreement. These actions reflect continued initiatives to optimize the service business and expand future market potential. Operating expenses totaled $12.6 million for the second quarter of 2016 compared to $10.8 million for the prior year period. Extensive project development activities combined with targeted and accelerated R&D expenditures to further enhance our product offerings drove this year-over-year increase. Net loss to common shareholders for the second quarter was $16.2 million or $0.56 per basic and diluted share. This compares to $10.7 million or $0.44 per basic and diluted share in the second quarter of 2015. The company’s cash, restricted cash, and financing availability totaled $169 million at April 30, 2016. Backlog increased sequentially for the fourth consecutive quarter, totaling approximately…

Chip Bottone

Analyst

Thank you, Mike. Please turn to slide seven, project development update. Our business is supply and recovery of energy for an increasing number of applications globally. We create strong stakeholder value propositions with attractive financial returns for investors using a proven common technology platform. I’ll provide updates on progress on our three primary markets, which are preferred resources for ultraclean distributor power generation, emissions reductions with carbon capture and distributed hydrogen for transportation. Our team has been focused on developing projects for bidding into high-quality clean energy RFPs. A number of RFPs have been issued in 2016, in which we were activity participating. I’ll go through some of these key RFPs to give you an indication of what we're offering and the potential for awards as these projects represent significant future growth opportunities for us. As announced previously, the 63 MW Beacon Falls Energy Park was bidded for the tri-state RFP in January of 2016. We feel this clean energy project is very competitively priced and brings benefits to the tri-state region as competing bids do not. It provides ratepayers with affordable and ultraclean power generation in the region, enhancing the resiliency of supply. This project also drives and pays for desirable natural gas, electrical and water infrastructure for the state and region that will help with adjacent economic development and directly benefits ratepayers. In comparison, many competing bids will require the construction of transmission lines, to connect the region to distant power generation sources. Beacon Falls is the only fuel cell project bid into this RFP, illustrating our focus on utility scale applications. The Beacon Falls Energy Park also presents a superior economic development profile versus competing submissions. Because of the unique operating characteristics, fuel cell projects like these can be installed in densely populated environments where they provide…

Operator

Operator

Certainly. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Eric Stine of Craig-Hallum. Your line is now open.

Eric Stine

Analyst

Good morning, guys. My first question, just is related to the guidance. Maybe you can just provide a little more color there. So is this a case of, those RFPs are out there and the timing of awards is slower than you anticipated and will have less of an impact on 2016. And then also, as part of that, you mentioned that you think Pfizer, that that project is up and running in fourth quarter. Is the guidance – the new guidance, does that have to do with the timing of monetizing that and selling that project or how should we think about that?

Michael Bishop

Analyst

Sure. Eric, good morning. This is Mike. I think you characterized that correctly, Eric. As we put out this guidance at the end of last year and as we were thinking about the timing of the bids that we knew we were participating in in 2016, thought those would come along a little bit sooner than they have. Our bid activity, as Chip mentioned, has been very strong. We do expect awards to come out of multiple RFPs and certainly that will begin to impact the fourth quarter and then going in 2017. So that’s the change in the guidance. As you mentioned, Pfizer, we are completing commercial operations in the fourth quarter, construction of that site is going very well, and we would expect that to come through revenue recognition in the fourth quarter as that project is completed.

Eric Stine

Analyst

Okay, got it. That’s helpful. Just wanted to turn to E.ON, you gave an update on that first project. Just curious what you think it means to have a reference site there and maybe just talk about how you see E.ON’s pipeline once that first project is up and running?

Chip Bottone

Analyst

Eric, good morning. This is Chip. Thanks for joining. Look, we have other activity, megawatt-scale things going on with them. But, certainly, having the first megawatt installation of a fuel cell in Europe is a pretty big deal, particularly where it is. Mannheim is an industrial type area and we see other opportunities for these and larger projects in Germany. So I think – I would say also they have a pretty broad reach across Europe and they’re helping us with both sides of E.ON, I should say. There’s the E.ON side, which is the commercial business, and then there’s the Uniper side as well, which is the ones that retain the assets. So I’m pleased with what we’re doing there and the recognition of how we fit into the future of the business.

Eric Stine

Analyst

Okay, got it. Maybe last one for me, I know you put out the Asia update, I believe it was last week. One thing that caught my eye there, just talking about distributed hydrogen and carbon capture, so maybe you can talk about what the pipeline looks like for those two applications in Asia. And just to clarify, that is outside the POSCO license agreement, is that right?

Chip Bottone

Analyst

Eric, this is Chip. Yes, you're correct on that. Relative to the activity, there’s activity in Europe as well. You asked about Asia, but this carbon capture subject is a global one, particularly if you think about China and India. And I mentioned in my remarks, one of the great things about working with Exxon is they’re a global company, but this represents a huge opportunity for export for us, and we’re uniquely positioned to get that. But on the hydrogen side, similar story, little more targeted. In Europe, there's a lot of interest for work in specific projects. More to follow on that, and then the biggest driver on hydrogen would be Japan and Korea at the moment in Asia. So we have discussions going on on those topics as well.

Eric Stine

Analyst

Okay. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Sven Eenmaa of Stifel. Your line is now open.

Sven Eenmaa

Analyst

Yes. Thanks for taking my question. I first wanted to ask about your – actually your energy generation costs to see whether there are any updates in terms of where you currently stand in terms of cents per kilowatt hour cost to generate from your fuel-cell plants and what is the roadmap here?

Chip Bottone

Analyst

Sven, good morning. This is Chip. Let me take that. Obviously, the way we bid these projects is on a turnkey basis and what really matters is the cents per kilowatt hour. So I'm not really at liberty to divulge those things from a pure public perspective. But I would say this that when I said in my comments here that we’ve competitively bid these projects, we obviously know what the market bears. We know what other technologies can deliver power for, and we’re right there with everybody else if not better. And when you throw in the attributes as I tried to explain a little bit about how these people are evaluating the other things that we provide, we have very attractive offerings, and I would say that, in a nutshell, over the last several years, that attractiveness has probably improved by about a third. And then there’s still more to go, Sven, so we’re on a good track to make sure that we can be competitive with anything else that’s out there.

Sven Eenmaa

Analyst

Got it. That’s very helpful. Second, wanted to ask about the POSCO relationship, and you mentioned also the pipeline of projects in Korea. What is your expectation of that conversion of that pipeline? And what are the expectations in terms of fuel cell kit sales into Asian markets beyond 2016?

Chip Bottone

Analyst

Let me start. Maybe Mike has something to add to that. Let me just explain a little about the market. So the market – and what drives the market in Korea is quite different than here and other places in the world. What they have done is they have a policy in place that says they want so much new and renewable energy, fuel cells are the major driver of that over a period of time. The power companies, which are primarily government owned there, then go out and submit license request to the government, Sven, to say, can you build these plants; and long story short is, there’s hundreds of megawatts of licenses out there and basically now it's up to POSCO primarily to go out and find those sites or execute contracts with those utility companies. There’s a handful of them. You might also know that POSCO Energy itself is the largest independent power producer in the country. So between POSCO themselves and the other power companies, those are our customers, an example is again we don’t announce these things until they’re finalized agreements as Mike made reference to. But the project that they announced that we knew a lot about, we’re involved in some of the contract details was a 20 MW project for the largest utility company there, so things again aren’t just linear there. But what is nice about there is the potential, and frankly, the roadmap there is a lot more visible than it is in some of the other markets that we have, so we’re bullish on that particular market and our position.

Sven Eenmaa

Analyst

Got it.

Michael Bishop

Analyst

Sven, this is Mike. Just to be complete on the question, I’ll take the question about the Asia sales beyond 2016. As we’ve talked about in the past, POSCO has been building their manufacturing facility. That is complete and on line now and producing cells. We had been planning with POSCO for this time. Our current order of kits ends at the end of 2016. As you know, that’s pretty low margin business for us, so we will be replacing our manufacturing capacity in the US with higher-margin EPC orders from the US and Europe. And that led to the reduced breakeven targets that we share today. We now expect EBITDA breakeven in the range of 50 to 60 MW with that kit volume coming out. So POSCO is certainly capable of producing the equipment they need to satisfy their market in Asia. As they produce and deliver equipment, we get a royalty on what comes out of their manufacturing facility at 3% of their sales pricing.

Sven Eenmaa

Analyst

Very helpful. And the last question, I wanted to just clarify the $2 million of non-recurring charges you refer to, was that all in cost of goods sold? And finally, what are the expectations in terms of OpEx spending in the coming quarters?

Michael Bishop

Analyst

Yeah, sure. So, yeah, that was included in service cost of goods sold, as I mentioned in my remarks. As far as operating expenses, we did say in my remarks that we did increase OpEx a little bit in the second quarter as we had all of this bid and proposal activity as well as some product enhancements that we are working on on the R&D line, notably the high-efficiency fuel-cell which will go into production next year. So I’d say from just a quarterly basis, this is kind of the high point. We would expect this year and OpEx will be either at this level or slightly below as we continue through the fiscal year.

Sven Eenmaa

Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Carter Driscoll of FBR Bank.

Carter Driscoll

Analyst

Good morning, guys.

Chip Bottone

Analyst

Morning, Carter.

Carter Driscoll

Analyst

First question is, just going back to the guidance and the award timing, I think previously you have talked about expectations, at least in fiscal 2016, that you would get some revenue from Beacon Falls. It sounds like the timing of that is towards the latter part of your initial expectations. Do you still expect some revenue contribution from Beacon Falls in this fiscal year? And then maybe just any color or nuance you could give as to why you think some of these awards have been pushed out? Is the normal bureaucracy? Because a lot of these are from state and municipal level. Any color you can provide? And I have a couple of follow-ups. Thank you.

Michael Bishop

Analyst

Sure, Carter. I’ll start and I’ll let Chip jump in towards the end. So as you mentioned, we did update guidance and it is taking into account the expected timing from bid awards. We would expect revenue recognition later in fiscal 2016 from new awards, whether it be Beacon Falls or other projects. We do have inventory on hand that can be rapidly deployed late in the third quarter and the fourth quarter as we begin to get project awards. As we take contracts, our contracts are always shovel-ready, so we’re able to execute pretty quickly after contract signing. As far as timing, the awards that we were bidding into had public notification date that had a range anywhere from April to July. That range, certainly for the bigger projects, is trailing towards the later part of it. So that’s really the answer to that part of question, Carter.

Carter Driscoll

Analyst

Can you talk about your quoting activity outside of state/municipal RFPs? Obviously, you’ve addressed Pfizer, but maybe more on the commercial side. Can you talk about what you’re bidding into or maybe how that pipeline is comprised for what you just updated today?

Chip Bottone

Analyst

Yeah, Carter. This is Chip. Let me take that one here. I highlighted primarily the utility side. Remember, there’s two sides of our business. There’s utility scale, which are generally RFPs generated, and then there’s the, what we call, on-site opportunities. There’s a whole laundry list of projects there that we’re working on as well that don't have those same timetables. They could – in fact, they’re shorter than that. So we have two different teams of people focusing on different opportunities. That process on the on-site power thing has a more diversified portfolio of customers, both geographically and across markets. But, yeah, there’ll be some of those that come in as well.

Carter Driscoll

Analyst

You talked recently about the average project size increasing, in particular for on-site. Has there been any noticeable uptick and/or flattening in the average size for what you’re currently addressing?

Michael Bishop

Analyst

It’s a different scale, right? The smallest project we’ll do on the on-site is 1.4 MW, but those are ticking up to be 2.8s or more. And on the utility side, yeah, they’re definitely going higher. We don’t anything below about 4 MW or 5 MW now and then they go up to 20 MWs. And we have projects, as you know in Beacon Falls, that are in 60 MWs. So the idea of a 100 MW project is not out of the question for us today with the economics that we can deliver.

Carter Driscoll

Analyst

Maybe next question, just talking about – you, obviously, give a lot of detail about the recent announcement with ExxonMobil. You updated us on site selection for the DoE project timing there. Have you narrowed it down to any particular sites? Is there a final sight selection, maybe timing? And whether you expect potentially any revenue from that first phase this year? And then I think there was, obviously, noticeable wildfires in the Alberta region. Does that have any effect on potential opportunity with some of those that you talked about earlier?

Chip Bottone

Analyst

So that’s a great question. Thank you for bringing that up. Here are the facts. So we, obviously, have been doing work with Exxon before this recent announcement, but we weren’t at liberty to talk about it. And we actually – this project that we have, to build this pilot plant, we actually had in hand before the Exxon announcement. And what's really happened is we waited on that because we knew we were going to get this agreement with Exxon. And not have Exxon, they are actually going to be involved in that particular project, Carter, as a partner with us and the site host. We kind of put that on hold until we got them in the fold here and now we’re fully engaged with multiple site hosts. In fact, we got people on the road with the Exxon folks meeting those subject things. So more to follow on that. That's going to pick up pace and that will happen quickly. Relative to the revenue recognition in this year, yes, there will be a significant revenue recognition from not just that project, but from Advanced Technologies business in general. As you saw, the backlog went up pretty sizably. It’s over $60 million now. But as we’re going through that route, as I mentioned in my note, in my comments, all of a sudden, people started calling us about, what about doing carbon capture, oil sands, steel industry or whatever. And we can pursue those opportunities as well in parallel. So I would say, more to follow on that. But that's a good thing that we have a broader base of interest than we had before.

Carter Driscoll

Analyst

It sounds as though, in general, it was mostly an RFP award pushout, timing in general, that caused the guidance to be lowered at least for fiscal 2016. Does that have any effect on phase two of expansion in Torrington or how do you think about executing on that next leg?

Chip Bottone

Analyst

All these things come in – the things got pushed out – as Mike talked about earlier, we had to get project financing in line. We did some more of that. As far as the expansion, that’s moving ahead because the first phase of that is as much a cost reduction exercise for us to lower our run rate, as we talked about, or a breakeven rate, as well as making the facility bigger where we consolidate things and not plan for future growth. Now, that’s moving ahead just as previously planned. Some of that is funded by the State of Connecticut which we have received those funds. So that’s moving forward, Carter.

Carter Driscoll

Analyst

Appreciate your time. I’ll get back in queue.

Chip Bottone

Analyst

Okay.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeff Osborne of Cowen and Company. Your line is now open.

Jeff Osborne

Analyst

Good morning and thanks for all the details so far. I was just hoping, Chip, that you could address – I think it was the Korea Herald that had a report about POSCO and some job cuts and delays in some of their projects. It doesn't seem to reconcile well with your analysis of the Asian backlog that you reported a few weeks ago. A, did you see the report? And, B, I guess, what were your thoughts?

Chip Bottone

Analyst

Well, first of all, Jeff, thank you for asking the question. And, yes, I’ve seen the report. Obviously, we know what’s going on around the world. But, to your point, let me just be clear on the record on that. There are some comments made that I think from an industry source or I forget how they characterize themselves – that POSCO Energy is the largest independent power producer in Korea. A small portion of their business is from the fuel-cell business. They’re a multibillion-dollar total business. But I think the article was trying to focus in on some of the challenges they were having, which was primarily a result of overbuilding in some of these different core baseload power plants. Remember, the fuel-cell business is focusing on this new and renewable energy piece of that, which is going forward anyway, Jeff. So somehow it got – some of the comments about retirement got mixed up with all that. But, in fact, POSCO just received this 20 MW order. We’re working on that for a while and there’s more to come in the pipeline. So this idea that they’re not accepting orders, I don’t know where that came from. But let me address the retirement issue. Look, we know what they do. We’re talking to these guys every day. In fact, we have people over there or whatever. And their relationship with us is actually closer than ever by their own desire and frankly ours as well. And what we were working with them on is a way to optimize their business from multiple ways, but one of them was, obviously, people – operating expenses. So, yes, there is an effort to reduce some of the people, the headcount, in the fuel cell business, specifically. There are broader things that they’re doing in the business relative to fuel-cell. But that’s a coordinated effort with us because, frankly, they’re going through a different place. They had a lot of built up as they brought manufacturing in there fairly quickly that we now can optimize with us doing some things, equally in engineering. They had some things they were doing because they're trying to localize so many things. So, Jeff, I’d say this is more of a natural business-related activity than anything other than it would be portrayed.

Jeff Osborne

Analyst

Got it. No, that’s great to hear. A couple other just random questions here on – Mike, on the OpEx trajectory, I think your response to Sven’s question or somebody else you asked, you have consistent OpEx over the remainder of this fiscal year. But given you’ve kind of got this super-cycle of bids that you’re participating in, do you anticipate next year that OpEx would stay at this level or potentially be lower? I’m just trying to look at the puts and takes of the timing of all of these awards that you're participating in.

Michael Bishop

Analyst

Yeah. Hi, Jeff. Good morning and thank you for the questions. As I said, we see this quarter OpEx kind of at the high point. We would expect this fiscal year, and certainly going into next year, we want to get leverage out of this business. We’re staffed up well right now. We’re executing well on our product enhancements. Those will come into production into next year, so don't expect any major changes in OpEx going forward.

Jeff Osborne

Analyst

Good to hear. Just a couple other quick ones here. On the optimization of the two plants that you mentioned, are there any other facilities from five, seven years ago that this type of issue might pop up over the coming quarters or do you feel like you’ve scrubbed the issue with other plants?

Chip Bottone

Analyst

Yeah. Jeff, I think I’ll take that. I’ll let Mike add to it. But I said in my comments that we’re done with that. We had some of that in the first quarter as well. And I would say that all these things were done in a very amicable way. These contracts go back five to ten years ago and, at the time, it was a good idea, but circumstances change. So that's taken care of and we’re moving forward with happy customers.

Jeff Osborne

Analyst

Good to hear. And then, Mike, what was the interest rate? It might be in the 10-Q when that comes out. But on the Hercules facility, what’s the rate on that and is there any notable covenants that we need to be aware of, either in terms of working capital or minimum cash balances, that type of thing?

Michael Bishop

Analyst

Sure. Jeff, the cash interest rate on the Hercules note is 19.5%. The note is interest-only for at least the first 12 months and we have the opportunity, if we hit certain milestones, for that interest-only period to expand up to two years, which is really helpful from a working capital financing perspective, which was the goal of the note. And what was the second part of your question? I’m sorry, Jeff.

Jeff Osborne

Analyst

Is there any minimum working capital or cash balances that we just need to monitor…?

Michael Bishop

Analyst

Yes. The only financial covenant is maintaining an unrestricted cash balance of 75% of whatever we have outstanding on that note.

Jeff Osborne

Analyst

Okay, got it. And the last question, I guess, strategically, how do you think about not looking for the price on the PPAs, but as you bid in these auctions and RFPs, as it relates to the tax credit, for example, doesn't get on the July 15 FAA extension bill. You’re then moving into the timing of the primaries and you’ve got the election in November. So you’re probably looking, at least in my view, more of a retroactive extension some point early next year. But looking at the timing of the PSE&G bid, in particular, you need to put in your price somewhere before that period in the fall. So, I guess, just strategically, how do you go about approaching these RFPs? I assume, is the game plan, if we move beyond July 15 and you don't have an extension that you just make the assumption that it is; and perhaps, if you're awarded it, you can drag your feet and move slowly and wait for it. I guess I just don’t know how logistically that would work.

Chip Bottone

Analyst

Jeff, I’m in this pretty deeply with some of the highest levels of the government. So I'm very confident it will get done. And like I said, it doesn’t have any impact on our business this year. And when you look at shipments and revenue next year, if we get that even at the end of the year or beginning of next year, we’ll still be fine. And if all else fails, we’re in a position now which is kind of a nice thing given the nature of the products and cost and things like that that if we had to we could absorb it. It's not ideal. But the primary thing is it’s going to happen. It’s going to happen.

Jeff Osborne

Analyst

Got it.

Chip Bottone

Analyst

Washington works in strange ways.

Jeff Osborne

Analyst

Isn’t that the truth? Definitely. All right. Good stuff. Thanks, guys.

Chip Bottone

Analyst

Thanks, Jeff.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Craig Irwin of ROTH Capital Partners. Your line is now open.

Craig Irwin

Analyst

Hi. Good morning and thank you for taking my questions. So first thing I wanted to ask for a little bit more color on is the changes that you made to get to the lower megawatt production targets for EBITDA, net income breakeven. If you could share any detail there, that would be helpful.

Michael Bishop

Analyst

Good morning, Craig. This is Mike. Sure. As we are modeling the business now, it's really – the biggest driver is removing the POSCO kit sales as we talked about multiple times. The sales of those kits are very low margin. So pulling those out of the model and then bringing in much higher margin EPC turnkey projects that we’re doing in the US and Europe and we target margins on those projects in low to mid-teens. And then, of course, service is additive to that, which we target in the low to mid-20s. So those are the major changes. Some kind of additional changes that we also think about as we’re thinking about breakeven is contributions from other parts of the business. So as Chip mentioned, Advanced Technology backlog, that is increasing. We expect that to run at a higher rate, at a more profitable rate than it has run in the past, which also contribute to the lower breakeven level.

Chip Bottone

Analyst

I would just add, Craig, and we’re always looking for operating expense reduction, product cost reduction, et cetera, et cetera, and we’ve been working really, really hard on that and have good results. Even though we don't make money per se with the kit sales, what that does do is that allows us volume through the supply chain, which does help with the overall product cost. So as POSCO comes online with their own production, the supply chain will continue to deliver, and yet we don't have the burden of the no margin on the volume going through our plant. So it kind of unwinds itself in a very positive way.

Craig Irwin

Analyst

Okay. So then, if we look at this, if I'm going to sort of step back a little bit, we all knew that POSCO was going to roll off at the end of the year. We've all known that it's very low margin. So it sounds like we can simplify and say the EPC stuff is possibly higher profitability and the technology contracts that you booked were not in original guidance. So how long do you expect the technology contracts to remain a key part of the uplift for profitability for the company? And on the EPC side, are the margins that you expect to book for this year similar to what's in your pipeline?

Chip Bottone

Analyst

That was about three questions there. So I forget the first one, Craig, but the second one was Advanced Technologies, I think. That business – this company started as an R&D business. That was kind of what we did. And then few years ago, we were doing a lot of work there on new applications, which ultimately turned into commercial products. It was a cost center, not a profit center. The big changes, that's becoming a profit center for us. And I can tell you that while the backlog has increased, the pipeline of activity is advance. So that model will – as Mike said, part of that is transformation of the business. That’s another one that sometimes is overlooked that will generate some very positive margins for us for a sustainable period of time. I can’t remember the other question.

Michael Bishop

Analyst

I’ll take it. So, Craig, as far as profitability of the pipeline, as I mentioned, we see EPC – we target EPC profitability in the low to mid-teens and then service about that. Certainly, over time, we’re going to push those numbers up. As I mentioned, we do have new products that will be coming into production in late 2017. The biggest example of that is the high-efficiency fuel cell. That can deliver 60% electrical efficiencies, so that reduces the overall fuel cost of a project over a long period of time, pushing down the LCOE. So value should accrue back to fuel cell energy for that product being out in the marketplace. And then, of course, we’re also working hard to extend the life and the power output of the core technology. So it’s all of those rollout. We do expect margins to grow to the business over time.

Craig Irwin

Analyst

Great. And then last subject I wanted to hit on was the investment tax credit. So can you maybe give us color on how much of the updated guidance for 2016 you would associate with delays in fixing the investment tax credit? I know there has been public discussion about ITC creating complications, a little for LIPA. I would assume it is elsewhere. And, Chip, we'd heard that you were in DC last week with Exxon, walking around, visiting our good legislators. What we're hearing is, this gets attached to the Puerto Rico debt relief bill. If you have any color there or if you would maybe point us in another direction, that would be helpful. Thank you.

Chip Bottone

Analyst

I guess you’re tracking my every move here, Craig, but anyway no problem. So, first of all, the ITC question has zero impact on our 2016 numbers because everything I said we’re going to get done. The current tax credit is that everything has to be operational by the end of 2016, which is December when our year ends in 2016 or end of October and everything we can get done by that period of time. Relative to what’s happening, just maybe to educate the audience here, so this is a tax bill. Therefore, it has to be on a major bill that has tax implications and there are several of those potential tax bills that the Congress is working on. One is the FAA bill. One is, as you said, is the Puerto Rico bill. There’s some others, Craig. So, yeah, we’re working to get that amendment, as we call it, put on any number of those tax kind of bills. I don’t know if it will be specifically Puerto Rico. There’s a number of them. But at the end of the year, there’s a wrap-up kind of omnibus that happens every year to do these things if it doesn’t get done, which is why, as I said to Jeff, I’m very confident that it will get done because nobody is against it. All the leaders, House and Senate, are in favor of it. And it’s just a question of finding the right bill, frankly, to put it on that gets done because it’s not about our amendment, it’s about the other bills that might have some things in there that people might be debating like Puerto Rico and some other things.

Craig Irwin

Analyst

Yeah. And just if I could share from our DC contacts we hear, you message of, hey, we compete against solar, this isn’t exactly fair, and these are US jobs, don’t make them go away. Those two messages are really resonating. So we look forward to the positive outcome there.

Chip Bottone

Analyst

You mentioned Exxon, just to be clear, the new news there, the reason for the tax credit was right, fairness and all of the things you said. The mistake that was made by Congress was an omission and it need to be fixed. But the new news, when you show up with Exxon, you realize that this carbon capture thing does a lot for coal, does a lot for clean energy, does a lot for gas. But all of a sudden, you have an opportunity not just to solve some of the domestic problems in an affordable way, but all of a sudden, this thing is a tremendous tool to solve some of the bigger challenges of the two biggest polluting nations in the world right now which is China and India. So that’s exports. So this is all jobs. It’s kind of the reverse of the solar panels where somebody else is shipping it in. We want to be the ones shipping it out. So there’s bipartisan support when you start to throw that in there as well, so it just kind of strengthens our story.

Craig Irwin

Analyst

Thanks again for taking my questions.

Chip Bottone

Analyst

Great question. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes Anne Crow of Edison. Your line is now open.

Anne Crow

Analyst

Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I had originally wanted to ask about expansion in Europe, but that's been very thoroughly covered in other responses. But I'd like to take the opportunity to ask about the technology. Clearly, you're no longer an early-stage company where technology is all you have to talk about. But I was wondering, are you doing any improvements on the carbonate technology at the moment? And if so, in what areas? And secondly, when do you think you're going to have the solid oxide fuel cell technology commercially available?

Chip Bottone

Analyst

Good afternoon, Anne. This is Chip. Let me take that. And if I miss anything, Mike could fill in. But your first question was, what are improvements or things to the current carbonate fuel cell. And the answer to that, there’s many. We’ve made public discussions. Obviously, we’re looking to extend the life of the cells, which we’re actively pursuing and that's going fine. We put together some new versions that now have the electrical efficiency growing from 47% to 60%. I can go on and on. But, basically, we continue to make that apply to more applications in a more affordable way around the world. Many of those things that we’re looking to improve would apply to Europe as well. Relative to solid oxide, we do have a set solid oxide technology, a company that we acquired several years ago, called Versa Power. And there’s really two parts to that business, Anne. One is small-scale products for distributive generation and the technology is different than carbonate. It does lend itself to scaling down and it has some higher – it has about 60% electrical efficiency, et cetera, et cetera. But really the other piece of that is that that product lends itself to a storage application. By way of the fact that you can run that to produce either hydrogen or use the hydrogen and produce electricity. So there's more to follow on that topic. That's an exciting market today. Probably on one of the future analyst calls or earnings calls, we’ll bring that up. But we are pursuing, primarily at this point, early commercial R&D projects with the solid oxide technology that will eventually be a global offering for us.

Anne Crow

Analyst

Thank you. I look forward to the analyst call where you're talking about that in more depth.

Chip Bottone

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And at this time, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Chip Bottone, Chief Executive Officer, for any closing remarks.

Chip Bottone

Analyst

Thank you very much, everybody, for joining today. Hopefully, what you took away from the call is that we’ve got a lot of activities that will both happen in the near term as well as have a tremendous impact on the company. Our strategy, as I mentioned in my comments, was to work with the biggest companies in the world, not just Exxon, but if you think about E.ON and the others, that’s what we’ve done. We can’t always control time, but we only have one way to do things and that's the right way. The fundamentals of this company have never been stronger. We’ve got great people doing great things. We get compliments every day from some of these biggest companies or governments in the world. So I think, as Mike said, we’re well positioned for the future here. So we thank you for your good comments. And we look forward to talking to you here on the next earnings call. Have a great day, everybody.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation on today’s conference. This concludes your program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.