Pearce Hamond - Simmons and Company
Analyst · Pearce Hamond from Simmons and Company. Go ahead
Thank you very much.
R. Daniel Brdar : Sure.
Operator : Your next question will come from the side of Stuart Bush of RBC Capital Markets. Go ahead.
Stuart Bush - RBC Capital Markets : Yes, hi, good morning.
R. Daniel Brdar : Good morning Stuart.
Stuart Bush - RBC Capital Markets : I was hoping you could walk us again through the time line, for how long after Project 100 makes its selection, to how low should we expect it to take to negotiate with the utilities, and then how long after that we would expect to see any revenue from the projects?
R. Daniel Brdar : The schedule as we understand it is, the Clean Energy Fund will make selections on the 26th of March. There will be some kind of a public announcement, probably around the first week of April. It takes probably another 30 days to get through the discussions with the utilities, and there's probably another 30 days for PUC approval. So that puts us probably into the late June time frame for an actual award, at which point we would be off wrapping up the business. And depending on which projects get selected, we would start to see down payments starting to flow for equipment orders, probably in the July time frame.
Stuart Bush - RBC Capital Markets : And then you would get the bulk of the revenue when it ships? Is that right?
R. Daniel Brdar : No, we would structure most of these so we would get progress payments. We want to make sure we are managing working capital as we ramp up. So for a typical project, our payment terms would be 10% down, 40% on material, another 40% when we ship. Joe, anything you want to add to that?
Joseph G. Mahler : Yeah, and Stuart, from a revenue-recognition standpoint, we're under percentage of completion, so delivery cycle on these projects would probably be somewhere from 9-15 months. It really depends on how many orders we get and we would be taking that over that cycle, which is how the revenue would be recognized.
Stuart Bush - RBC Capital Markets : OK, so I guess along those lines, what is your best guess on guidance for your cash needs for fiscal '07 at this point? I guess you obviously have some sort of internal targets that you're assuming from Project 100 along with all of your other backlogs. So what would be your best guess for cash needs for this year?
Joseph G. Mahler : Well, let me take that a little differently, Stuart, because we're really not in the business of guessing. [Laughter] But in any event, our cash flow right now is targeted to being very similar to our cash flow last year. The question you're asking is what happens if we get a Connecticut 100 project?
Stuart Bush - RBC Capital Markets : Right.
Joseph G. Mahler : Let's take, let's say 20 megawatts. So all the costs into the 20 megawatts would be about $80 million. The $80 million is the cash requirement. We would expect, depending on the...you know, there's a couple of paths how you would fund that. We have one scenario where we have our developers basically buy product from us. So we are a product supplier, they will buy product, the payment terms as Dan was describing will be somewhat our standard payment terms: we'll get 10-40-40-10, or something to that extent. So we'll get a significant amount of cash in the up-front periods, in order to build out the inventory and then get the remainder of the cash at the time. So in that scenario you'd have 50% of the cash. So you have $80 million times 50% is obviously $40 million. That all wouldn't hit you at one point in time, but over the life of that project, you'd have some kind of working-capital path that would be that kind of a number. Now, in that scenario, what we would expect to do, we've got a good customer, which would be the State of Connecticut, which is that we would be in effect able to borrow against that, which would really mitigate that cash flow. So we're not looking at a huge cash flow from an equity standpoint, for example, a huge cash-flow drain. The other scenario is that we won a project where we would be responsible for finding project finance. And in that case what we would expect is, we would get instruction to build financing, and then the take-out would be with the project-finance company. So again, we wouldn't see a significant drain on cash flow. Does that answer your question?
Stuart Bush - RBC Capital Markets : Yes, that's very helpful, I think. One last question, and it sort of shifts more to your comments about the technology improvements that you're targeting.
Joseph G. Mahler : Yeah.
Stuart Bush - RBC Capital Markets : Can you give me some color on this 15% additional power increase that you're targeting? Does that involve tech changes to the stack, or to the balance of plant? And maybe just give me better color on what you guys are doing there, if you can.
Joseph G. Mahler : Yeah. One of the things that's really unique about our technology, versus other fuel-cell technology, such as phosphoric acid, is that we're really nowhere near the theoretical limit of what you can do with a carbonate stack. So what we have been doing in our R&D efforts is looking at how we can improve the core technology to be able to take and draw more current from a stack. If you draw more current from a stack, you make more heat. So a lot of it comes down to, how do we manage heat better? So what we have been doing is coming up with some changes to the core fuel-cell design that will allow us to produce more power from an individual cell. The changes to the balance of plant really are not significant, in terms of their impact on power output. Our efforts there, really, are focused on cost reduction. So we're continuing to improve that core technology, and that's what we've been testing in what we call sub-scale stack. It's basically full-sized cells, but only at 10 kilowatt in height for the stack. And we're pretty pleased with the results we see there.
Stuart Bush - RBC Capital Markets : Cool. So I guess that leads me to a last question then. Can you put any numbers around how close we are to the theoretical limits affecting stack efficiency?
Joseph G. Mahler : In terms of what we can do in terms of output of the stack, we're probably, I'd say, about 75% of theoretical.
Stuart Bush - RBC Capital Markets : Great, thanks a lot, guys.
Joseph G. Mahler : Sure thing.
Operator : We'll take our next question from the side of Walter Nasdeo from Ardour Capital. Go ahead.
Walter Nasdeo - Ardour Capital : Thank you, good morning.
R. Daniel Brdar : Good morning, Walter.
Walter Nasdeo - Ardour Capital : Just briefly, can you give me an update on the status of the micro-turbine fuel-cell hybrid? How that's coming along?
R. Daniel Brdar : Yeah, we actually shipped that unit to Montana where it's been running very well. The demonstration phase up there is over, and what we're finding is that there is some significant interest in Japan to take that unit and ship it over there to a major player in the Japanese market. So we're in the process of working out what that demonstration will look like in Japan. So we'll likely bring that unit back here, make sure it's current in terms of anything we've seen from its operation, and then ship the same thing off to Japan to do a demonstration over there. Because what we see in the Japanese market is, they're so driven by efficiency, that there is tremendous pent up interest in seeing this product operate over there. So we want to make sure that we continue to stimulate that.
Walter Nasdeo - Ardour Capital : Okay. What size fuel cell are you using with what size micro-turbine right now?
R. Daniel Brdar : What we've been doing for our demonstration project is one of our 250-kilowatt units with a capstone 60-kilowatt micro-turbine.
Walter Nasdeo - Ardour Capital : Right, right. Do you envision being able to continually step that up in size on both, in using multiple micro-turbines, with a larger fuel cell going forward?
R. Daniel Brdar : Yeah, in fact, if you really get out of the micro-turbine size and get to more an industrial- class gas turbine, the performance takes a pretty significant leap in terms of the kind of efficiencies we can achieve. We demonstrated at the customer's site with our demonstration unit, 56% efficiency, but we've been doing some work with some of the major turbine players. And we can pretty easily break the 62% efficiency level, by using a more commonly available gas-turbine design.
Walter Nasdeo - Ardour Capital : Interesting, OK. And I just wanted to jump over to the sales side for a brief second. Can you...I know that right now it's kind of hit or miss, and you're going after contracts and things like that, but can you give us some sort of detail on what the sales cycle is shaping up to be, and what you are looking at doing as far as a sales force going forward?