Dan Florness
Analyst · William Blair. Your line is open
Good morning, everybody and thank you for joining in on our earnings call this morning. And I also want to welcome Holden to not only the earnings call, but to our organization as well. Holden has been here now for, I believe, about 5.5 weeks, so he is seasoned veteran at the Fastenal organization. When we started 2016, we had a handful of expectations for the year. And I thought I’d run through those expectations and talk a little bit how the year has played out relative to those expectations. First expectation for the year, we are going to open some stores. We hadn’t opened much stores in recent years. We are going to open a few more stores and not a lot, but a few more because that is part of our long-term growth and it’s about always exploring ways to grow in different markets. The second thing we were going to do is we are going to reinvigorate our store network. We talked about the CSP 16 at our Investor Day last November. Essentially, we injected about $75 million of inventory in our store network to be a better supplier, a more efficient supplier and a better same day supplier. And we are pretty good already, but let’s get better. Third item, let’s reinvigorate our vending. We have created a wonderful vending business in the last 5 years. But in the last 2 years, we have lost some steam. In 2014 and 2015, we had – we were signing about 4,000 a quarter, so we had run-rates of about 16,000 a year and really saw there is a lot more potential there and our capabilities are strong and this naturally works with our store and onsite network. Let’s go back to this more aggressively. The fourth, speaking of our onsite network, let’s transition to an onsite mentality for growth. History says we will sign about 5 to 10 a year. In 2015, we have started a transition. We signed about 80. Could we sign 200 in 2016? Five, our comps are going to ease in Q3 – sorry about that, folks. I am not sure where that came from. Our comps were going to ease a bit in Q3 would allow from mid single-digit growth in sales and it gives us a little more flexibility on what we could afford to spend as we approach the year. Let’s focus on our growth drivers in 2016. Let’s demonstrate to ourselves and others that we can grow in this environment. And let our regional vice presidents, our district manager group, our hub manager group, our support leads run their business. It’s an incredibly talented group. They run an incredibly impressive business. Let them run it. Let’s focus on our growth drivers. And point 7, 8, 9 and 10, serve your customers, serve them everyday, improve their business and ours and be creative, we will grow. What are some of the realities of the year? We are opening some stores. We opened about 30 – we will have opened between 35 and 40 stores for the year. I think that’s a good number for us in 2016. One item that changed on our stores is in May of 2016, the Department of Labor published some new rules regarding exempt employees. This rule, while it doesn’t impact our company in totality, because it essentially raised the threshold of what qualifies as an exempt employee from – there is rules for duties that qualify you and there is also a rule for pay, and those rules were increased dramatically in 2016. Because of that change, it does impact our smaller stores, because in our smaller stores, we don’t always compensate above that $48,000 level, because we have folks that are building a business and we are a sales minded organization, but the opportunity is huge. But as you all know from the years of us publishing our pathway to profit data, stores under $75,000 a month are not profitable – are marginally profitable and this damages that. And we decided to close some stores. We moved fairly aggressively on it. We closed 65 stores in Q3. We have another 32 stores queued up to close in Q4 and we are also evaluating another group we are going to look at in 2017. But because of the close to 100 stores that we identified for closure, we did book up a reserve in the third quarter for those closures primarily related to the occupancy, but we move fairly quickly on it. These closures should have a minimum impact on our revenue similar to closures in the past because the stores have another – these locations have another store in reasonably close proximity. And as you know from previous conversations, the vast majority of our revenue is business-to-business, most of it going out our back door and we are delivering to the customer sites. So if we are serving a market with five stores versus four stores or three stores versus four stores doesn’t necessarily change our ability to grow or our ability to maintain the business we have. And typically, we maintain 90-plus percent of the business when we close the store. But it did change a bit of our thought process as we have gone through the year just because of the changing landscape, the reality we live in. CSP 16, we moved aggressively on that early in the year. Our store conversion is largely behind us. We believe this broadens our ability as I mentioned earlier, be a better same-day supplier, appeal to a broader range of customers. We believe that ultimately this will help us as we go on in 2017 with our construction customers. But we believe it makes us the more efficient business. On vending, our run rate has improved. We have been signing 4,700 to 4,800 per quarter instead of the closer to 4,000 we were doing the last 2 years. Right now, our run rate, if you just take that number and annualize it, it’s about 19,000 run rate versus the 16,000 the last couple of years. This is okay, it’s not great. We added 200 and some people earlier in the year to ramp this number up. That ramp has been moving a little bit slower than I would have liked. I would like the quarterly number to start with a five versus a four but we have improved it nicely. And I also have to acknowledge the fact that as you all know from previous calls, we signed a rather sizable vending leasing program earlier in the first half of the year and we have deployed in the last four months roughly 11,000 vending machines into that program. That’s created a little bit of distraction to our program, but I would still like a number that starts with a five. But we have made nice progress. Regarding the transition to onsite, I am frankly impressed with our team. We still have work to do, but I am impressed with the fact that we have signed 133 year-to-date. That put us on pace to do roughly 180. Our record year last year was 80. I believe we are creating momentum for our business into the future because the closer we get to the customer, whether that be with our store network, our vending platform or our onsite, history has demonstrated we take market share when we do that because we have a servant’s heart within our organization. Our covenant with our customer, we will help you be a better business by being a great supplier, a great partner to you, and the onsite strategy only makes that better. And I am very pleased with the transition we are making and with that I expect us to continue making as we enter 2017. Point five, the comps were easing in the third quarter and that will help us. Unfortunately, we are still stuck in that band of one to three. If you look at it from Q2 to Q3, our sales are treading water but there is two stories going on in there. Our fastener business continues to be weak. That business has been weak since the spring of 2015 and our fastener revenue dropped about $10 million from Q2 to Q3. Under the hood, our fastener margin improved nominally from Q2 to Q3. Under the hood, our non-fastener margin improved nominally from Q2 to Q3. We didn’t execute that – we haven’t been executing that well, in my opinion, in 2016 in general on our freight. Our propensity to charge freight has weakened in the last six quarters, seven quarters. Lower fuel prices and its part of the reason, discipline is the other, perhaps the marketplace is making it a little bit more challenging to charge freight. But there are still ample examples where we can charge it we are not and we need to be better at executing on that front. But the product margins under the hood again, we have mix going against us because the fastener business was down about $10 million. We continue to see us inching along and improving the relative gross margin on the components. If sales are up 5% and – 5% to 6% as we were expecting, the fact that our expenses are up a little bit above 5%, would be okay, wouldn’t be great, but it would be okay. Unfortunately, that’s not the fact pattern and we are pulling some levers on expenses. One of those levers that we are pulling is to help offset some of DOL impacts as we go into 2017, to offset some of the investment impacts we made in 2016. The regulatory environment, well, you all watch the news, I am not sharing a secret here. It’s not a great environment to do business in. But that’s the world we live in and that’s the world we need to contend with. And there is a lot of uncertainty. But the certainty I do know is that we have a great organization, a great group of people out there managing our business. And we are going to continue to focus on our growth drivers and we are going to continue to let our regional vice presidents, our district managers, our hub managers, our support leads run their respective groups. But we will need to be mindful of the environment we are in. It’s a different earnings call for me this quarter and as the last couple of quarters have been in and that I don’t have a bunch of spreadsheets set in front of me ready to answer any and every question, just talking about the business. And I am upbeat about our business as I look forward. There is a lot of good things from a momentum standpoint, but it was tough quarter. With that, I will turn it over to Holden.