Dan Florness
Analyst · Raymond James. Your line is open. Please go ahead
Thanks Lee and good morning everybody. Thank you for joining on the Fastenal call today. We changed up the look of our press release with this quarter. Hopefully, you find it useful. We tried to really boil it down and summarize little bit better than I think we’ve done in the past. Our Q which will go out on Friday, still has a little bit more than meat [ph] that you’ve grown accustomed to in the past, but we felt the best way to communicate is to get to the point fast. And if you want a little more detail, we can cover some stuff on the call and cover some stuff in the general Q. The cash flow for the quarter, I’ll touch on a few things and then I’ll kind of work back through the press release little bit. Operating cash year-to-date, 97.5% of our earnings, we feel good about that number. Typically we think a good number for Fastenal’s in that low 90s 90% to 95% neighborhood. So, we feel good about what we’re doing. We’re doing nice job. Obviously the accounts receivable growth really centers on what’s going on with our sales growth. But I think we’re doing a nice job managing the growth of inventory. There is a lot of places we have found where we can free up some inventory dollars; there is lot of places where quite frankly, we want to invest some additional inventory dollars. But I think all in all in total, we’re doing a nice job managing the first six months of the year and I’m confident in our ability to continue managing that in the future. If I look at our CapEx, no surprises there; we talked in our annual report about what we expected our CapEx for the year to be. That number was moderating from what it’s been the last few years. A lot of our big distribution projects are behind us with automation and a bunch of our DCs over the last three years. Our vending, we spent a lot of money for about three years, building up our vending capacity, both from the standpoint of the teams and our equipment, and now we’re in more of a steady state mode and so that number has come down a little bit to better match what we are actually installing as opposed to building up a base of machines. And so, feel good about our CapEx in the first six months of this year. Free cash which is operating minus, our net CapEx about 177 million, so about 66% of earnings, again, I believe a very good number for Fastenal. We in the first six months of this year, paid out about a 165 million in dividends, so about 61% of earnings. So, most of our free cash went to funding dividends thus far this year. As you all know, we bought back some stock in the latter half of the 2014 and we’ve been busy buying back some stock in the first four and a half months of 2015. We think it’s a good wise decision for our shareholders. So, year-to-date, we’ve bought back about $250 million worth of stock and we borrowed about $240 million to fund it. And as a quick snapshot of our cash flow, we think it’s good decisions for our shareholders short-term and long-term. In the first page of the press release, continuing on to second page of the press release, I touched on four bullets about the business that and I am going to touch on it again here. The first one, I think Lee did a great job talking about the people side of the business. We’re putting people into the stores; we’re trying to really allow the efficiency of the organization between the automation we’ve put in, some of the technology we’ve put in, everybody working smarter everyday to minimize what we’re adding outside the store to minimize the expense growth there. And I think we did a nice job of adding people into the right spots in the first six months. Item two touches on; we’ve been head hard this year by a number of factors. In here, I talk about oil and gas. I don’t think there is any surprise by that. Our customers have been hit hard by the strength of the U.S. dollar. Most of our business is in the U.S. and anything that impairs the manufacturing output of this country, impacts us and the strong dollar has done some of that. We also sell a fair amount in the Canada and that business is all denominated in the Canadian currency. So, that’s created some headwinds for us. I site in bullet two that we see some signs of stabilization in the oil and gas. And I want to share a little more insight what I mean by that. As you know from our press releases and our filings over the years, we’ve put a lot of emphasis. We try to really understand the trends of our business, what’s going on to improve our business, what’s going on to hurt our business. And if I look at the Texas and Louisiana geography within our business and I look at that business and look at their sequential patterns, so not the company numbers but those two states and look at those sequential patterns and what’s actually happening in our business, the story is really different in three distinct time periods this year. In the January and February time period, I look at history and I look at actual results, there is about a 9 or 10 percentage point delta between what history says should happen and what’s actually happening. So from January to February, if history says we should be up 2% sequentially, we’re 9 or 10 points and we’re down 7 or 8 points. So I want to explain that what I’m talking about. In the March, April and May timeframe that 9 or 10-point delta, the deficiency on our sequential pattern contracted to about 4. In June, it contracted to two in change. Now, does it mean -- I mean our year-over-year numbers are pretty weak right now but sequentially the trends are starting to move closer to normal and that makes me feel better about what it means for third quarter and fourth quarter and going into next year as far as the health of that underlying business. So, I just wanted to touch on that. Point number three, gross profit is hit by large accounts. It’s no secret that our growth has been driven by the success we’ve enjoyed in leveraging this network we’ve built into growing a large account business. Because for so many years, most of our growth centered on local customers, local business as we were rolling out our short network. As we’ve developed that store network in the last 15 to 20 years, we’ve very aggressively gone after large account business. We’ve had great success there. That business does not operate at companywide gross margins. But the beauty of going after that business is we can afford to go after that business even with the lower gross profit because that leverages the network we already have in place. And so those growth profit dollars shine right through quite well to the bottom line. In fact this quarter, if you look at it for every dollar in sales, we picked up about $0.41 in gross profit. $0.40 of that $0.41 actually shut, made us way down to our pretax line because our operating expenses were essentially flat. Now that’s in spite of the fact that we were adding people at a very fast clip in the last -- as we site in our release, in the last 12 months, we’ve added almost 1,400 people into the organization, an increase of 7.7%. We funded that by not spending dollars everywhere else. And that’s the exciting part about what we were able to accomplish in the last 12 months in my opinion. And again, the fourth point just touches on what I just said, the strong incremental margins. I’m sure there has been periods in our history where we’ve had incremental margins of 40%. I’d have to go back up Bob Kierlin and see it back in the 70s quarter-by-quarter, if he has that information still. I can’t recall the time in my 19 years here at Fastenal that we’ve done it. And so, I’m really, really impressed with that. Some thoughts on revenue growth and in the past, I’ve touched on this in passing in the calls. Sometimes I don’t want to get too deep into the numbers into the weeds because I’ll lose everybody on the call. But I think it’s helpful to understand our business. And in the press release, I touched on we’re really two distributors in one. We’re this fastener distributor that has built up a book of business over the last 50 years; and we’re an MRO distributor, really built up that business in the last 20 years. We really started to expand our product lines beyond fasteners in the early, the mid 1990s and have grown that non-fastener business now to [ph] 60% of our sales and that’s 40% fasteners and 60% non-fasteners are really different businesses, different end markets going through a common channel. And so, if I look at that fastener business, a lot of production business in there. The beauty of that business is incredibly sticky. It’s really invasive and complicated and painful to switch a fastener supplier. Because that’s a very tight relationship because I’m supplying you the stuff you need in what your producing and the quality, the source supply, all those things we bring to the table are critical and it’s very, very disrupted to change your supplier. That’s the good news of that business. The bad news of that business is linked directly to production. If our customer’s production is down 10% that business is down 10%; if our customer’s production is down 30% that business is down 30%. The good news is if it’s up 20, our business grows by 20. And that’s really what we’ve been seeing in the last few months. If I look at our top 25 customers, and I took a good hard look at that group of business, 11 of those 25 customers were negative in June; 7 of those 11 were negative double-digit; and 5 of those 11 were negative in excess of 25%. That’s a negative of being directly linked to their business. The positive is when I look at those relationships, these are solid relationships. I’ve visited with most of those customers in the last six months. We have a great relationship; we’re continuing to strengthen as most of those customers; we are growing our business with them. There is only one on that list that I can think of we’re not growing our business and it’s actually going backwards a little bit. The other 24 were growing our relationship but their business is struggling in this economy. That’s a function of the end market economy. If I take that a step further and go beyond the 25 and I look at our top 100 customers in the company that group of customers represents a little bit over 20% of our sales. That group of customers has gone from 7% growth four months ago to 2% growth in June; it’s still growing but it’s struggling because there are so many in that group that are negative. The good news is, if I look at all of our other large account customers, all of our national accounts outside of our top 100, that business is growing and growing well. In March that business grew at 11.3; in April it grew at 13.5; in May it grew at 14.5; and in June it grew 14.2. That’s about Fastenal taking market share that’s not about Fastenal being impacted by the economy. We’re out taking market share as fast as we’ve ever done. I look at our signings in the first six months of this year; they are ahead of our signings in the first six months of last year. So, I feel very good about the underlying business as far as our ability to take market share. But we’re struggling with some headwinds right now. With that I have used up a little bit more time than I planned on. I will be quiet and we’ll take some questions.