Daniel L. Florness
Analyst · William Blair
Thanks, Will, and good morning, everybody, and thank you for participating on our call today. Before I start, I'm going to touch on one housekeeping note, and that is related to a change we plan to do next quarters -- for our first quarter release, so that would be our release scheduled in April. What we have done over the last, gosh -- most of our public life is that before market opens, at 7:00 in the morning Central Time approximately, we publish -- we publicly release our earnings for the previous quarter. And one thing I've learned over time is that you always keep your ears open for suggested improvements or changes that you could make that maybe improve the process. Something we're going to try in April, and in our scheduled conference call is for Thursday, April 19, I believe I wrote that date down correctly, and -- or April 12, excuse me. But instead of releasing at 7:00 in the morning, before market opens, we're going to release the evening before. Typically, the way our process works currently is that we will queue up all of our documents for release somewhere between 7 and 8 p.m. in the evening and schedule them to come out the following morning. We're going to queue them up between 7 and 8 as we've done in the past, go through our normal process, but make them immediately available. We believe that will help inform the marketplace, the analyst community and the marketplace in general on our quarter; and will add to the quality of this earnings call, potentially some of the questions; and also help with the dissemination of information. So that will be a change. We'll try it next quarter. We'll do it for this year, and we'll see how it goes and continue to try to improve the process of communicating with The Street. I will echo some comments that Will made and delve a little deeper on a couple of them. This morning at 7:00, I had my typical call with our Regional Vice President. It's basically -- it's our group of leaders, our regional CEOs if you will, that manage our business and are a large part of the success behind our business. And some of the messages I've shared with them, first and foremost, was nice quarter, nice year. And we did a really nice job in a lot of fronts and like always, we identified the things that we did well, we identified the things that we can improve on, and we'll work on those as we move into 2012. As Will mentioned, and I would echo the comment, continue to be impressed by our top line performance. As all of you know, over the last several years, especially in the bottom of the 2009 dip, tried to do a lot of things to try to look at our seasonal trend patterns, to try to really understand and communicate what our business normally does, and we used that '98 to 2003 as a benchmark for that. If you look at the chart we published in our press release and in our quarterly documents, you can see that we have soundly been at or above that trend line now for both 2010 and 2011. So it's not about the recovery or easy comps or hard comps or all that kind of stuff you can talk about. It's really what happened from June to July, July to August, August to September. Are we building the fundamentals of our business every day to launch us into the next year? And that's the secret of Fastenal's top line growth for the last 40 years, is we build a little bit more everyday and we step higher. And when I look at that, we continue to handily outperform those numbers, which makes me feel very good as we go on into 2012. And as you see in the ISM numbers, they continue to support what we're doing, and we feel very good going into the new year. On the expense side, Will touched on both the labor and the nonlabor side. I'll add a few more tidbits to the nonlabor side. If I look at 2009, 2010 and 2011, our total operating expenses have gone from 35.6% of sales in 2009, granted that was a high number because of the recession, to 32.8% in 2010 and 31.1% in 2011. So we dropped 450 basis points in 2009. Probably the more meaningful comparison is we dropped 170 from 2010, 2011, because 2010 was a good number. If I look at that, we've always talked about labor being about 70% of operating expenses, labor and labor-related. So payroll, health care, school business, those types of expenses, versus all the other expenses. Our occupancy, our store fleet, our gasoline going into that fleet, all the expenses we have to operate our business day in and day out. That represents about 30% of our operating expenses. That 30% piece has performed so well in the last 2 years that 80% of our improvements in operating expenses have come there. And a big piece of that would be on the occupancy side, and that's 'pathway to profit'. It's not complicated math, it's just we're leveraging our store base. When I look at that, the good news, good news in that story is we've done a great job with that component. And I think we're poised really well coming into 2012 to have another piece, a big piece of our operating expenses, that we can leverage quite attractively, and we've jumped on that midway through the fourth quarter to really go into the new year and attack that well. And with the rising sales and gross profit dollars because seasonality of our business, it poises us well for 2012. The other thing that I think is real compelling when I look at that, the non-payroll piece, is that non-payroll piece also contains all of our vending expenses. So we've gone from 567 units in service at the end of 2009, or said another way, the start of 2010, to almost 7,500 machines in service at the end of 2011, a thirteen-fold increase. And all those expenses have been absorbed in an area where we saw great leverage in our P&L, frankly [ph] everything else, but even better. And I don't want that to be lost in the whole message. Speaking of vending, there is one clarification I do want to make when I look at the information we've released, and this is on top of Page 6 of our earnings release. In there, we have a table of information, and that table goes through -- and it talks about the number of machines we added, that we signed contracts on during the quarter. That's to try to give you a current touch on what activity is happening, of machines that will go online today and in the future and what those trends look like: The cumulative machines installed, so how many machines did we end up each quarter with, the machines in service; the percent of total sales to vending customers, so that's customers -- total sales for that customer group, both vended and non-vended dollars so we can measure the impact of it, how big that business is; and then the final is what's happening with that business, how fast is it growing. If you take a good close look at some of the numbers compared to prior quarters, you'll see some slight changes in the numbers. Really what's happened is we've -- as vending ramped up, we were compiling a lot of that information in a very manual process. We've migrated now to a more automated platform. Decided that -- we took another look at the data, and we slightly modified the field of definitions. The first group, any changes there would just be cleaned up and the changes are very modest. The second group, you would see some changes. Really, what happened was a definitional change. Instead of the number of machines installed and scheduled at the end of the quarter, it is now very clean number. It's the number of machines installed and producing revenue at the end of the quarter, which I think is a cleaner number. None of it changes the trends, but whenever you see numbers that change, I think it's worthwhile pointing it out. The third category, slight changes, very modest. The fourth category, if you look at Q2 and Q3, instead of growth in the upper 40s, it's growth in the lower 40s. Still a very attractive number but slightly lower than what we previously reported, and I wanted to point that out in the release. My take, when I look at all 4 sets of data, unbelievable numbers and doesn't change my opinion, it only enhances our opinion of vending as we go into 2012 and the future. I think it's a very compelling growth component to our business, one of many. The -- as always, as I mentioned earlier, we talk internally and we talk externally about the good things in our business and some of the things that were proved more challenging or maybe the work side of the business, if you will. Two things jump out in my mind when I look at 2011, particularly fourth quarter. Our gross margin did drop about 70 basis points from 51.9% to 51.2%. Hopefully, the narrative I put in the release helps to explain the sum. I will provide a little more insight. Historically, we talk about the transactional piece of our gross margin, the organizational piece of our gross margin and the vendor incentive. And the transactional is about things we do every day, day in and day out. Organizational is more about leveraging our trucking network, as well as our ability to source products domestically and globally, using tremendous volume capabilities to buy, as well as a dedicated focus to improve our source of supply. And the third, vendor incentive, while it's a smaller component of the gross margin, it's a piece that can move around some. So that's why we mention it periodically. If I look at those 3 pieces and I take even a deeper dive into some components, one component of the transactional and organizational, it crosses actually a little bit of both, is the freight side. How are we utilizing our trucks, how are we doing charging freight, how we are doing with our -- how much LTL shipping are we doing because we don't have volume on certain lanes, et cetera. And Will touched on this earlier but when I look at that piece, one thing you see -- whenever you're predicting numbers coming into a quarter or looking at a year or you're looking at what you think you can do, you always have kind of a mind of where those pieces are. And one piece is going to be higher, one piece is going to be lower, and that's just life. What we really saw in the fourth quarter is, directionally, they all moved the same direction. We gave up 6 basis points here, we gave up 7 basis points there, 12 in another spot, 15 in another. If I look at all those pieces, we gave up about 40 basis points. Now a piece of that, about 1/3 of that, ends up being in our ending inventory. So it doesn't hit the P&L because it's capitalized in the inventory. But most of that, 25, 27 basis points does impact our gross margin in the fourth quarter. A second piece and an almost equal size is the rebate number does fluctuate a bit from quarter-to-quarter. Typically, in the fourth quarter, you have some true-ups. It might increase the number slightly, it might lower the numbers slightly because trueing up, most programs are calendar based. Gave up about 25 basis points there. That's the bad news. The good news is when I look at those pieces, that is a seasonal piece of our business and now the freight piece, we got to do some hard work to improve those. Some of it occurs naturally because we better leverage our trucking network. Our trucks have more product on them. So our relative cost is lower. Some of it takes -- sometimes taking a good hard look at it, kicking a few people in the butt, including ourselves, and saying we need to be better at this as we go into the new year. The last piece I'll touch on is what we talked about our organizational gross profit. Gave up a little bit in the quarter. That always moves around a bit from quarter-to-quarter, some natural gives and takes. Things that we're doing to exclusive brands tend to improve that number over time. Our large national account program tends to erode a little bit of that number. The real case is managing the mix over time to constantly improve it. Long story short, gave up some gross margin in the fourth quarter. I believe we're poised well as we go into 2012. So the last one is on the working capital. We continue to improve our working capital. That's part of the 'pathway to profit.' Our inventory utilization should improve over time. My issue there is we're just not making fast enough progress and that's something we'll work on. Our internal calculation really looks at the ending inventory and looks back in time against cost of goods to comp with the days of inventory and days that they are on hand. So how much working capital. Our business, as everybody on this call knows, historically uses quite a bit of working capital but we get great returns on that working capital, so we can afford it. But we operate in that 220, 225 days of working capital neighborhood when you combine the 2 together. Our challenge is how do we get to that sub-200, down in the 185, 190 neighborhood and how long does it take us to get there. Not to say we can't improve beyond that, but you always have shorter and longer-term goals. We made about 8 days of improvement from last year. That should have been twice that number. So that's our challenge for 2012, is continuing to improve those days and do what we think we should do, not what we did in 2011. So I think we have good opportunity there, and that just enhances our cash flow and our ability to get returns as we go forward. I believe our operating margin and our pretax margin will continue to improve if we can improve the relative performance of our working capital. It's a great one-two punch. With that, I will stop talking, and we'll open up for some questions. Thank you.