Bob Shanks
Analyst · Patrick Archambault, representing Goldman Sachs. Please proceed
Okay, let’s go on to the next region; we’ll talk about South America on slide 11. So looking at South America, I mean the first thing you have to talk about is the external environment. It is very, very tough, particularly in Brazil. And we’re not seeing any good signs from recent economic indicators, fiscal actions in Brazil have been taken to improve the economy longer term and that probably means more pain in the short-term. So, no signs at this point of reaching bottom. Our team is managing very, very well and very proactively in this environment and we believe that they’re positioning our business for recovery, once it does occur. But again, no signs of a bottom and certainly we’re not talking about a recovery today. But having said that, certainly our One Ford product strategy is paying off; we saw strong share growth in the region and in Brazil once again that was driven by the all new car, but we also saw the Fusion leading its segment once again in Brazil and we saw the F-Series and the Cargo leading the semi-light and the light segments; also proud to say that the Argentina -- in Argentina that the Ford brand was again number two there in terms of market share. The loss in the quarter was $185 million that was a pretty good improvement year-over-year that was due to higher net pricing. Two elements of that: One is the fact that we’re recovering or trying to recover inflation which is very high in the region as well as the adverse operating exchange effects of the weak currencies but we did also see positive pricing from new product in particular, the car. The results were pretty much the same on a quarter-to-quarter basis. If we look at Wholesales that was down, that was due to the lower industries. And if we look at revenue that was down sharply as well, again due to lower industries but also exchange. In fact about two-thirds of the overall decline in revenue was due to the weaker local currencies. If we look at the full year, we continue to expect a loss but we expect that loss to be lower than what it was a year ago. Alright, let’s go on and we’ll go to slide 13 and we’ll look at Europe. Actually feel quite encouraged by what we saw in Europe in the quarter. We approached breakeven which is about where were, a year ago, as you can see here. We did do better on a quarter-to-quarter basis and that was due to market factors. But let me talk about some things that we think indicate that there are some positive things going on here and certainly make us feel that we’re on a good path towards profitability. If you look first at the external environment, we’re seeing modest but good growth in the euro area, stronger growth in the UK in terms of GDP. If you look at industry sales, we’re seeing growth in total Europe and that’s despite big decline in Russia and we’re seeing growth in Europe 20. Our wholesale volume is doing well, it’s up in total. If you look at share, in terms of total Europe, it was up in the second quarter; it was also up in the first half which isn’t shown here. If we look at Europe 20, it was flat in the quarter but it also was up in the first half. The revenue decline that was more than explained by exchange translation, so again on a local basis, we’re seeing growth in revenue. There are a few other things that I just want to highlight in terms of the results for you to think about. If you look at slide 14, which we won’t go to now, but you’ll see in the callout box for volume and mix that we took a hit in the quarter of about $150 million from the fact that in the quarter, stocks only increased by 1,000 units. Normally in the second quarter in Europe for seasonal reasons, we’ve got the plant shutdowns in the third quarter; they’ll have a stock build, which is what we had last year. So, on a year-over-year basis, we’re taking about $150 million hit in the quarter because we did not have that normal stock build. Several reasons for that, first of all, we had a pretty decent level of stock going into the quarter but during the quarter we had industry strikes in Turkey that affected our operations there, that limited the supply of transits back into our European operations and then very late in the quarter, we had launches of the all new S-Max and the Galaxy, which constrained supply of those products in the quarter. Another factor to think about is that in the quarter compared with the year ago, we had higher pension cost. These are lower discount rates that we saw at the end of last year that are increasing the amortization of losses related to our pension obligations in Europe. So, think of this as sort of a penalty for something that’s already happened in the past; it’s non-cash. The underlying run rate of the business is better. But I just wanted to call that out for your awareness. And then the last thing I guess, I’d mention is a year ago -- we talked about it year ago, we did benefit from a onetime reserve release associated with our Cologne investment agreement, so that did not obviously occur this year and we still delivered about the breakeven result that you see today. So we feel that the European transformation plan is continuing to progress. We clearly have to push even further on brand, product and cost but we do feel that we’re on track towards profitability. In terms of the full year, it’s not going to happen this year. We still expect the loss; it will be better than it was a year ago. I will say that we do think the second half results will be worse than the first half and that is due to normal seasonal factors. So with that what I’d like to do is turn to Mark to see if he’s got any comments on Europe.