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Transcript
OP
Operator
Operator
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the fourth quarter Ford Motor Company earnings conference call. My name is Katrina, and I will be your coordinator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. We will conduct a question-and-answer session towards the end of this presentation. (Operator instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the presentation over to your host for today’s call, Mr. Brian Harris, Director of Investor Relations. Please proceed.
BH
Brian Harris
Management
Thank you Katrina, and good morning ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to all of you who are joining us today either by phone or webcast. On behalf of the entire Ford management team, I would like to thank you for spending time with us this morning. With me here today are Alan Mulally, President and CEO of Ford Motor Company; and Lewis Booth, Chief Financial Officer. Also in attendance are Bob Shanks, Vice President and Controller; Neil Schloss, Vice President and Treasurer; Paul Andonian, Director of Accounting; and K.R. Kent, Ford Credit’s CFO. Before we begin, I would like to cover a few items. Copies of the morning’s press release and presentation slides that we will be using here today have been posted on Ford’s Investor and Media Website for up to your reference. The financial results discussed herein are presented on a preliminary basis. Final data will be included in our 2009 Form 10-K. Additionally, the financial results presented here are on a GAAP basis, and in some cases on a non-GAAP basis. The non-GAAP financial measures discussed in this call are reconciled to our GAAP equivalent as part of the appendix to the slide deck. Finally, today's presentation includes some forward-looking statements about our expectations of Ford's future performance. Actual results could differ materially from those suggested by our comments made here. Additional information about the factors that could affect future results is summarized at the end of this presentation. These factors are also detailed in our SEC filings, including our annual, quarterly, and current reports. With that, I would now like to turn the presentation over to Ford’s President and CEO, Mr. Alan Mulally.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
Thank you, Brian, and good morning everyone. We are very pleased to be able to share today our fourth quarter and full-year 2009 financial results. As you all know, 2009 was an extremely challenging year for the global automobile industry. For Ford, it was also a pivotal year and the strongest proof yet that our One Ford plan is working, and we are forging a path toward profitable growth by working together as one team leveraging our global scale. Despite the deep, deep economic downturn, historically weak sales, and the government-funded bankruptcies of our domestic competitors, Ford returned to profitability in 2009. For the full year, excluding special items, we posted a pre-tax operating profit of $454 million, a $7.3 billion improvement over 2008, despite the decline in business conditions and lower worldwide revenues. On an after-tax basis, including special items, Ford’s full-year income was $2.7 billion. In addition, we returned to positive automotive operating related cash flow in the second half of the year, increased full-year market share in North America, South America, and Europe, while continuing to improve transaction prices and margins, reduced automotive structural costs by $5.1 billion, exceeding our 2009 goal by over $1 billion and made progress in strengthening our balance sheet. We finished the year with automotive gross cash of $25.5 billion. However, we still have significantly higher debt on our books than our key competitors. Our North American operation posted a fourth-quarter pretax operating profit, excluding special items, of $707 million, its second straight profitable quarter. As a result of our 2009 US financial performance, we will pay profit-sharing to 43,000 eligible US hourly employees, consistent with the 2007 UAW-Ford Collective Bargaining Agreement. The average amount is expected to be approximately $450 per eligible employee. Ford's product resurgence continued in 2009, with the…
LB
Lewis Booth
Chief Financial Officer
Thanks Alan. Let’s move on to slide 9, which provides more detail on the financial results. Our fourth quarter pre-tax operating profit excluding special items was about $1.8 billion, a $5.5 billion improvement from a year ago. Rest of the remaining slides will focus on these pre-tax operating results. Our pre-tax operating profit excluded unfavorable special items, with $711 million, which we will cover on the next slide, and we recognized $109 million of tax expense and $65 million of our income was related to non-controlling interests. Bottom line, fourth quarter net income attributable to Ford was $868 million, a $6.8 billion improvement from a year ago. For the full year, pre-tax operating profit excluding special items was $454 million, a $7.3 billion improvement from a year ago. Full-year net income attributable to Ford was $2.7 billion, which included about $2.6 billion of special item net gains we will discuss on the next slide. As mentioned last quarter, a new accounting standard effective January 1st, 2010 relating to the consolidation of variable interest entities will require us to deconsolidate many of our joint ventures. This will have no effect on net income attributable to Ford and is expected to have minimal impact on cash flow. This change however is estimated to reduce our full-year 2010 pre-tax operating and business segment results by $350 million to $400 million. Our 2010 first quarter earnings review will provide additional information on this accounting standard change. Slide 10 covers special items, which are unfavorable pre-tax amount of $711 million in the fourth quarter. We recorded $346 million for retiree healthcare and related charges, reflecting primarily a net loss on the settlement of the UAW retiree healthcare VEBA agreement, and this will be covered in more detail on the next slide. We recorded a charge…
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
Great. Thank you very much Lewis. Slide 35 provides an overview of the business environment. Global economic conditions are improving that remained fragile. Modest recoveries in some markets are held back by weak labor markets and tight credit. The consumer spending outlook for the US and Europe remains weak with the low trend growth likely in 2010. In addition, our suppliers and dealers have been weakened by the impacts of the global economic downturn. With the worst of the financial crises now subsiding, global central banks are likely to remove some stimulus by retiring special lending programs and begin modest policy interest rate increases. Even with this, interest rates are likely to remain relatively low in 2010 and supportive of the economic recovery. Upward pressure on commodity prices has resumed in conjunction with the emergence of an economic recovery. This trend is likely to continue in 2010. Our business continues to be affected by currency volatility; reasonably the US dollar has gained some ground against the British Pound and the Euro. Global industry volume last year is estimated at 64 million units down around 6% compared to 2008. This reflected weak conditions in the US market with more modest declines in Europe owing to substantial scrappage programs. For 2010, we expect to see a gradual improvement in global industry volumes but significant uncertainties remain. As a result of the very effective 2009 European scrappage programs, there is expected to be substantial payback in 2010, particularly in Germany. We expect to see continued growth in Asia Pacific markets in 2010 supported by robust economic performance in that region also. Now on slide 36 which shows the results of our 2009 full-year key planning assumptions and our operational metrics; industry volume was 10.6 million units in the US and 15.8 million units…
BH
Brian Harris
Management
Thank you, Alan. Ladies and gentlemen, we are now going to start the Q&A session. We have about 35 minutes from the question-and-answer period. We will begin with questions from the investment community and then take questions from the media who are also on the call. In order to allow as much time as possible for questions within our timeframe, please keep your questions brief. Katrina, can we have the first question please?
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. (Operator instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Joe Amaturo, representing Buckingham Research. Please proceed.
Joe Amaturo – Buckingham Research: Good morning. How are you? One question, Alan; you did a very good job with net pricing in 2009, and I was just wondering, you know, what approach you expect to take in 2010, particularly given some of the current events with one of your major North American competitors?
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
Well, the initial answer to that question, Joe, is that we are very pleased to see the customers appreciating the value that we are incorporating in all the vehicles. And so, you know, as we go forward, as you well know, we are improving the breadth of our product line, plus the quality, so we anticipate that the customers will continue to value that. We expected that last year itself, we think it will be maybe a little bit less than we experienced last year. Clearly, that will be bounced the value that we will be increasing for the new products.
Joe Amaturo – Buckingham Research: Okay, great. And then, one other; Lewis, maybe you could explain this exchange issue and how much of it was due to the Canadian dollar, particularly as it relates to the North American automotive performance; and then, what you would expect in 2010 or what we should expect in 2010 as it relates to FX?
LB
Lewis Booth
Chief Financial Officer
Most of the effect was the Canadian dollar, and it was promising to adjustments. And I don’t know, Joe, I'm not really prepared to guess what we are to expect from that share.
Joe Amaturo – Buckingham Research: I guess I should probably ask you a little differently, I mean, do you have any hedges in place as it relates to the foreign exchange or –?
LB
Lewis Booth
Chief Financial Officer
We have some hedges on inter-company loans, but not on policy [ph] assessments.
Joe Amaturo – Buckingham Research: Okay, great. Thank you, and excellent quarter.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
Thanks a lot, Joe.
OP
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from the line of John Murphy, representing Banc of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed.
John Murphy – Banc of America Merrill Lynch: Good morning, guys. We have a pretty good view of what happens at the end of the purchase funnel, obviously, and the numbers we are seeing on a monthly basis. But at the beginning in that consideration set, I wonder if you could just highlight what you are seeing, maybe statistically or whatever comments you can make on the expansion of the consideration set for four products that will ultimately lead to you know, the execution of the sale.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
You bet. Well, it is a pretty neat story, John, as I know you know, because the four brands that has always had tremendous recognition, and one of the most recognized brands around the world. And the neatest thing is that with the prove points, especially on the product side, the complete family, the best-in-class on quality and fuel efficiency and safety and the neat features on each one of the new vehicles, and of course, the value proposition is that we are seeing a dramatic improvement in the favorability, which is the next step on the purchase tunnel [ph]. And we are starting to see that improve all the way through the tunnel now and the more the people appreciate, especially this complete family of vehicles now that we have always had that on the SUVs and the trucks as you know, but what’s really moving very fast is appreciating for the smaller and mid-sized cars and utilities. So, an upper trend that we anticipate will continue.
John Murphy – Banc of America Merrill Lynch: Okay, and then second, just staying on the product, you got to explore any Super Duty launching in the second half of this year, which should be pretty favorable for mix, but obviously you know, the Fiesta would be mix down, I mean, in general would looking at mix in 2010 versus 2009 as about neutral be a fair assessment or, I mean, you know, how should we think about mix, or how are you thinking about mix in 2010?
LB
Lewis Booth
Chief Financial Officer
Sure, let me – we are just kind of looking at some data. The Super Duty, just to make sure that we got is second quarter and Explorer is in the fourth quarter.
John Murphy – Banc of America Merrill Lynch: Got it.
LB
Lewis Booth
Chief Financial Officer
Okay, and which is a part of your answer also is that we are seeing, you know, continuous strong demand for all of the segments of our product line, and I think it just gets even more enhanced as we add some more of the smaller medium-sized vehicles. So, I think overall, I would say about the same.
John Murphy – Banc of America Merrill Lynch: Okay, and then just –
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
Once we get little bit more information –
LB
Lewis Booth
Chief Financial Officer
It’s probably a bit bad, because the Explorer comes in right around you, really doesn’t get much production. So, I think we are going to see the impacts of Fiesta more than we are going to see the impacts of Explorer. So, I think we are going to see a bit of adverse product mix.
John Murphy – Banc of America Merrill Lynch: So, that Super Duty is launching in the second quarter, so you get almost three quarters of that?
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
Yes, that’s correct.
John Murphy – Banc of America Merrill Lynch: Okay. And Lewis, just on Ford Motor Credit, continuing to outperform here, used car pricing is fading a little bit, but it’s not, you know, dropping off, so in that lead stuff, it sounds like it should be reasonably good this year, but we are also seeing your securitizations being upsized, spreads tightening, I mean, what is – I mean, how should we think about this, because I understand there are some factors that were not repeatable, but you are doing $500 million to $600 million in pre-tax profits here for the last three quarters. I mean, should that really be killing off that much from there?
LB
Lewis Booth
Chief Financial Officer
Yes, there’s couple of quite significant items. One is our receivables take another pretty substantial hit in 2010, because of you know, as the industry levels have downsized and we have rolled off some of the book, but we are also rolling off Jaguar Land Rover book, the Mazda book, we are starting to roll of the Volvo, but we are making progressing on that. We have taken, we have found alternative business arrangements in some of the Asia-Pacific and European countries. There was also, I think we have talked about this in the second quarter, there was a pretty substantial currency gain on unhedged in the company loan that from then it was several hundred dollars, I think $300 million. So, there are a couple of pretty big, and one non recounting it and the other is the fact that we have been downsized in the Credit company to recognize the realities of our future ability to fund and also the fact that we are no longer managing the PAG business.
OP
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Rod Lache representing Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.
Rod Lache – Deutsche Bank: Good morning everybody.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
Hi Rod.
Rod Lache – Deutsche Bank: A couple of things, just looking at the North American results this quarter, if I look at North American shipments sequentially, it looks like they were 115,000 units higher, and earnings of $350 million better. So, it’s about $3,000 per unit, and I was wondering whether it just looks a little like relative to what we have seen in the past, but can you just comment a little bit of that sequential walk as you have done in the past?
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
Yes, I will just give you an update in a minute. Yes, I think the reason that (inaudible) were some seasonal structural cost changes on a quarter-over-quarter basis that go up a little bit in the fourth quarter. Other than that, nothing really significant, we are still continuing to feel pretty good about the margin before we get to fixed cost.
Rod Lache – Deutsche Bank: Okay, but you would include those seasonal issues in the volume line as you have broken that out?
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
No.
Rod Lache – Deutsche Bank: Okay. Can you, I guess maybe just switching gears a little bit, K. R., I didn’t see an mention this quarter about planning or plans for bank holding companies status or looking to get any kind of support there, I was wondering if you can comment on those plans and are there any implications that you see from the proposals in Washington vis-à-vis taxing liabilities of financial institutions, how do you see that kind of affecting your business if at all?
KK
K.R. Kent
Analyst · Rod Lache representing Deutsche Bank
Yes, just a couple of things. There are no plans to recover bank holding company. That’s clear. We still have a pending application on the ILC.
Rod Lache – Deutsche Bank: Sorry, yes, ILC.
KK
K.R. Kent
Analyst · Rod Lache representing Deutsche Bank
Sorry.
Rod Lache – Deutsche Bank: I apologize.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
Big difference.
Rod Lache – Deutsche Bank: I understand right.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
We know you do.
KK
K.R. Kent
Analyst · Rod Lache representing Deutsche Bank
And that application is still pending, Rod. As we have always said, it was always a small piece of the business if it goes through. As far as regulatory changes, it’s really hard for me to tell at this point in time, we are getting our funding done, we are getting the securitization done, spreads are tightening, things are looking really good from our perspective as far as being able to compete in the marketplace and get people on to Ford vehicles and keeping our dealers funded.
Rod Lache – Deutsche Bank: Okay.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
We are still convinced that we don’t do the year that captures credit companies of strategic assets, absolutely.
Rod Lache – Deutsche Bank: Yes. And just back to the motor company, could you just talk about where your UAW cost per hour is today all in and can you just remind us, it looks like you are storing a higher people, what is the all-in costs for new hires, do you have any targets for the ratio of Tier 1 versus Tier 2? And also, just given the European decline, are there any actions that you are taking to mitigate some of that decline? That will be my last question.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
Okay. Let me answer the second part first. The European decline, during the year, we took out a substantial, during 2009, we had a substantial deal-out stock reduction in Europe, because frankly scrappage were a lot stronger than we expected, and continued a lot longer. So, with that repeat of that which we don’t anticipate, we will have about flat production year-over-year. So, you know, structurally, with Europe is about where at least things change, we will take another look, but we think we are about okay. In terms of the way we are on the UAW, we are really not much different from where we have talked to you about before. We are now at about $55 an hour against, you know, best estimate when they still had a substantial number of attempts of the – about $50 now. When we got up to a 20% blended rate of new hires would be, that would close the gap to $50, but you know, we haven’t got near-term hiring plans that would get us up to that $20. So, we are still less than we have – as production grow, just making sure we are utilizing people we already have.
OP
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Brian Johnson representing Barclays Capital. Please proceed.
Brian Johnson – Barclays Capital: Hi, good morning. Two questions, one housekeeping and then one strategic about South America. On the housekeeping front, what was the contribution to cash flow above and beyond net profits from the translation of balance sheet currency impact you talked about?
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
Hold on, I am just asking my housekeeper. What don’t you ask the second question, we will just –?
Brian Johnson – Barclays Capital: Yes, could you give us some color on both how on what you see for South America going forward, particularly in light of or particularly your expectations maybe for market growth Ford position, obviously it’s an important product geographic area reported several other global competitors, and then how that might translate to profitability, in particular these 14% EBIT margins we are seeing are those going to be sustainable?
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
You know, we just announced a very substantial investment plan in South America. It’s obviously both products and we expect capacity as well as continued work on patron down in South America. We don’t expect it to be a growing area, and we expect it to continue to be a significant credit to our profit stream, but beyond that, we wouldn’t speculate on just how much.
Brian Johnson – Barclays Capital: Are you running full capacity?
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
We are just about flat out, yes. The Thomas plant is flat out, the Sao Paulo, I think has a bit of open truck capacity, so it’s flat out, and we are flat out on power train. In terms of your question, it’s pretty timely in terms of the exchange rate effect, 0.2 billion [ph] something like that, from just about an exit.
Brian Johnson – Barclays Capital: Okay, thanks.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
Thanks Brian.
OP
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Chris Ceraso representing Credit Suisse. Please proceed.
Chris Ceraso – Credit Suisse: Thanks good morning.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
Good morning Chris.
Chris Ceraso – Credit Suisse: Couple questions around the finance company, first, the size of the book you referenced in the slide around 11 billion, and I don’t mean to be picky here, it’s 10.3 the last quarter, is that 11 a rounded number or you are growing the book here?
KK
K.R. Kent
Analyst · Chris Ceraso representing Credit Suisse
You are talking about the 11 billion of equity trust?
Chris Ceraso – Credit Suisse: Yes, exactly. Is it like 10.5 and you put it as 11 because it’s rounded or what’s the –?
KK
K.R. Kent
Analyst · Chris Ceraso representing Credit Suisse
No, it’s pretty close to 11. One second, I will find it. 10.969 [ph].
Chris Ceraso – Credit Suisse: Okay, so where do you see that going? Lewis mentioned the JLR and the Volvo and the Mazda, where does the book value go, let’s say by the end of 2010?
KK
K.R. Kent
Analyst · Chris Ceraso representing Credit Suisse
Real high level, we mentioned that we are sizing the balance sheet, was reduced to about between 80 billion and 90 billion, we ended the fourth quarter at 95 billion. JLR, Mazda, and Volvo receivables will continue to wind off, which should free up capital. So, the 11 billion ends up being in our profits for 2010, plus the plant distributions that we have planned. We plan to pay $1.5 billion of distributions in 2010, which reduced the 11 billion down, then it will be offset by profit, it will end up being between 10 billion and 11 billion by the end of the year.
Chris Ceraso – Credit Suisse: Okay, and then is it trying to take away some of the noise of the different adjustments and one-time items? Is it, I mean, you guys used to do something in the neighborhood of a 14% ROE in the Credit business, is that a good neighborhood, is that like an after-tax return on equity around 14%?
KK
K.R. Kent
Analyst · Chris Ceraso representing Credit Suisse
We don’t actually give any guidance on that. You know, it’s a fair long-term objective.
Chris Ceraso – Credit Suisse: All right.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
And this is a long term, Chris.
KK
K.R. Kent
Analyst · Chris Ceraso representing Credit Suisse
Right.
Chris Ceraso – Credit Suisse: Just lastly and just so I understand how you are doing the math here, on the $500 million favorable that you showed in the finance company in the quarter, is that the change in the value of the lease book that you are writing up, so that you depreciate differently, or is it the benefit of vehicles that are coming off lease that are worth more than you thought they would be?
KK
K.R. Kent
Analyst · Chris Ceraso representing Credit Suisse
Yes, it is primarily the vehicles that actually came off lease and were sold at auction during the quarter compared to where they have been depreciated to prior to, basically prior to the quarter. So, some of it is, for example, like the impairment we took. You can’t actually undo an impairment when it comes to a depreciable asset. So, eventually when the vehicles come back, they go through auction, we will recognize that gain at that point in time.
Chris Ceraso – Credit Suisse: So, how much more of this do you expect and how many more quarters can you continue to book again vehicles come off lease?
KK
K.R. Kent
Analyst · Chris Ceraso representing Credit Suisse
It will, I don’t have a specific forecast again, but at least a several more quarters.
Chris Ceraso – Credit Suisse: Several more quarters, okay. At the same tight magnitude?
KK
K.R. Kent
Analyst · Chris Ceraso representing Credit Suisse
That I don’t want to get into just yet.
Chris Ceraso – Credit Suisse: Okay, thank you very much.
KK
K.R. Kent
Analyst · Chris Ceraso representing Credit Suisse
Could I just before the next question, I would just clarify our response to Mr. Brian on the São Paulo facility. We are at capacity on cars, but we are operating on one shift. So we are at man capacity rather than at facility capacity.
OP
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Himanshu Patel, representing J.P. Morgan. Please proceed.
Himanshu Patel – J.P. Morgan: Hi, good morning. Couple of questions. Just given what is happening with commodity costs, can you guys touch on what the outlook is for net product costs in 2010?
LB
Lewis Booth
Chief Financial Officer
Yes, we expect them to be going up. We do think we are starting to see commodity turns. As we start the new contracts, we would see some increased price because of that. So, product costs, we expect to be going up a bit.
Himanshu Patel – J.P. Morgan: Okay, and then Lewis, could you give us any help on 2010 pension expense and pension cash contributions?
LB
Lewis Booth
Chief Financial Officer
I am not sure I can be of help. I am sorry. I just worked out why I can’t be helpful. We will give you the details, Himanshu, in the 10-K when we finish the analysis.
Himanshu Patel – J.P. Morgan: Okay, and then I guess there is a story out today about Ford halting production of the China version of the Transit because of the same accelerator problem that Toyota has. Can you just give us a sense for where are you on the analysis of this issue? Could this – is this pretty isolated in your view, or is there a chance that this could spread to North America or Europe as well?
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
Our assessment right now is it is very isolated, this is a little bit more information. You know, following our normal process, when anybody has an issue in the industry, we check everything about the Ford design and production worldwide and as you pointed out, it appears to us that there might be a similar design in one of the older Transit, what they call in China the Transit Classic, that is being produced in our joint venture with Jiangling Motors. And so they announced this morning, with our support, that they are going to suspend production until they can finish the investigation. It involves less than 2000 vehicles and it appears that the design might be similar, which kind of fits with them switching suppliers in December last year over to the CTS supplier. So, we think it is pretty isolated, but you know, we are aggressively running at the ground.
Himanshu Patel – J.P. Morgan: Okay, thank you.
OP
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Patrick Archambault, representing Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.
Patrick Archambault – Goldman Sachs: Hi, good morning. You know, I wanted to just get a little bit more guidance on the impact of Volvo being put into special items. You know, how separate is Volvo operationally as well as administratively. You know, when you do alternately sell it, you know, how much penalty can we sort of expect from some of the duplicative administrative and operating functions that you will sort of – that will remain with you that you would have to sort of restructure separately? You know, how much of a penalty in and above removing whatever future PVP [ph] forecast we would have in our models should we be thinking about, both in terms of when it actually comes off the books as well as how it'll be treated when you report it as a special item.
LB
Lewis Booth
Chief Financial Officer
If you can think of all the pretty stand-alone capability in terms of product development and manufacturing, some shared engines, they supply Ford with engines and Ford supplies them with engines, and an independent sales network and dealer network. So there are a couple of areas where we are going to have to work to make sure we don’t incur – I don't know what the word is, dis-efficiencies. But I don't think there is going to be a material effect. And we will obviously, when we do the deal, it will be somewhat like Tata-Land Rover, where there will be some short-term transitional service agreements, where as they build up (inaudible) for example in accounting or IT or whatever that we continue to provide them with a service for a period. And then there will be some long terms agreements on major license like engine supply, or so. But I am not anticipating a material financial effect.
Patrick Archambault – Goldman Sachs: Okay, great. And I guess just another one just on the cash flow. You mentioned that in this quarter, you know, some one-off tax benefits that you know, I think we are part of that sort of working capital other. Can you quantify those for us?
LB
Lewis Booth
Chief Financial Officer
Yes, it was about $400 million from memory.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
You know, the reason we are talking about – and I'm not using it as a guide for future levels, obviously, as we started seeing production come back to more reasonable levels, we started seeing the payables coming back to more reasonable levels, which is how things duplicate and we also – the business units, particularly in the fourth quarter did a knockout job on bringing down inventory. And the challenge for us as we start increasing production, particularly in North America as we go forward will be making sure that inventory don’t break up a little bit. So that’s why we think third and fourth quarter a little unrepresentative of our running rate.
OP
Operator
Operator
(Operator instructions) Your next question comes from the line of Bryce Hoffman representing The Detroit News. Please proceed.
Bryce Hoffman – The Detroit News: Good morning, congratulations gentlemen. I just wanted to ask a question about Toyota. Do you foresee any impact or any opportunity on your US business from the Toyota recalls?
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
The way that we are approaching it Bryce is that we are really focused on the customers and what they want. And going through – one of the new things about going through 2009 was how (inaudible) to see the customers considering Ford and also buying Ford. And so clearly everybody realizes now that we are competing with the best in the world including Toyota. So we anticipate that going forward in 2010 that we are going to see more and more interest in Ford.
Bryce Hoffman – The Detroit News: Have you seen opportunities out from Toyota’s trouble to pick up any share from them?
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
Bryce Hoffman – The Detroit News: Great. Thank you.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
You are welcome.
OP
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Dee-Ann Durbin representing The Associated Press. Please proceed.
Dee-Ann Durbin – The Associated Press: Good morning gentlemen.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
Good morning.
Dee-Ann Durbin – The Associated Press: I was wondering if you could give me an example of favorable net pricing on a specific vehicle.
LB
Lewis Booth
Chief Financial Officer
A couple of ways. As we launched new products have increased content, but the customers see as value we can get the opportunity to price for that, and then I would say, see the vehicle as more attractive than its predecessor. We’ve been able to reduce incentives because people see our vehicles now as world-class whereas, in the past, historically on some of our vehicle lines. Our customers didn’t see that. So what we are really trying to do is with world-class products achieve competitive levels of revenue, which means typically slightly higher, strictly priced with significantly reduced incentive. So you get a better transaction price. But it’s all around the product and it’s all around getting competitive prices rather than getting prices at high end. And the Tourist [ph] is a good example, when the Tourist – when we launched we were able to close the gap of our competitors because we had a fundamentally brand new product that the customers thought was really worth, what we were asking come to pay for it.
Dee-Ann Durbin – The Associated Press: Thanks.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
I assume you wanted a general answer on dollars and cents?
Dee-Ann Durbin – The Associated Press: Actually dollars and cents.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
So send in your order, we will help you out.
Dee-Ann Durbin – The Associated Press: Thank you.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
You are welcome.
OP
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Brent Snavely representing Detroit Free Press. Please proceed.
Brent Snavely – Detroit Free Press: Hi guys, and congratulations.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
Thank you.
Brent Snavely – Detroit Free Press: I guess one broad question, one specific one. On the profit sharing with the UAW, do you now expect or have they agreed to end this sort of mass country wide grievance effort that is under way?
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
We have no comment on where they are on that Brent. But clearly it is a very positive development as we move forward to be able to recognize people for the great progress we are making.
Brent Snavely – Detroit Free Press: And then broad picture on this restructuring and turnaround plan, you have been on for several years. You called 2009 a pivotal year for Ford, just where you guys at now in terms of the progress of completing Ford’s turnaround?
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
At the broadest level to your question, we are never going to be done; we are going to continuously improve forever. The new thing about the – your question about the pivotal year, and it really is favorable and historic that during the worse economic recession in 30 years or 40 years because of the strength of the plan we put in place a few years ago, we were able not only to survive but also to create a foundation that is delivering now profitable growth during that year, based on the strength of our products and all the actions that we have taken on continually improving our quality and our productivity. So, the way we are thinking about it of course is that going forward, as we stay on the same plan, we are going to keeping matching new capacity to the real demand, we are going to continue to improve our quality and productivity and we are going to lead with the freshest lineup and most complete lineup cars, utilities and trucks; small, medium and large with a best-in-class quality. So we look at this as a long term delivering great products, ever-improving strong business and being part of the solution for everybody going forward.
Brent Snavely – Detroit Free Press: Thank you very much.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
You are welcome Brent.
OP
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Chris Isidore representing CNN Money, please proceed.
Chris Isidore – CNN Money: Yes, three months ago when you reported the third quarter results, you weren’t quite ready to predict the profit for 2010. What has changed in the last three months that made you more bullish about the year ahead? And do you see there being more upside or downside to that forecast right now?
LB
Lewis Booth
Chief Financial Officer
Coming to think of it, I think we have obviously got a good quarter under all that, so we continue to see good performance on the stuff under our control in terms of our business and the recession of our products. I think we are seeing perhaps the opportunity of a little bit more life in Europe, because some of the (inaudible) programs are continuing. You know, we said at the end of the third quarter the thing that is concerning us most was an inability to read the market trends as we were exiting the third quarter on the (inaudible), which had really sort of distorted the running rates in the US. We finished with a good December, so I think we feel just a little bit more positive that the green shoots are still there, they haven’t shriveled up. We remain concerned about the fragile nature of the economic recovery around Western Europe and the US, really encouraged by the growth in China, and our ability to participate in the growth of the rapidly growing Asia-Pacific sales. So it is just a tiny wee little bit of confidence than when we finished the third quarter, I think based on those factors.
Chris Isidore – CNN Money: Thanks
OP
Operator
Operator
The next question comes from the line of Joann Muller, representing Forbes. Please proceed.
Joann Muller – Forbes: Hi, there. I had a question about the debt and I am wondering, what is your – what was the debt payment for the year last year in total, and what I am trying to get at here is, what is the debt penalty per vehicle and does it give you a disadvantage against your competitors?
LB
Lewis Booth
Chief Financial Officer
There is no question that our net debt levels give us a disadvantage against our competitors, because of the higher interest rates we occur. You know, doing a direct comparison is a bit tough, because you have to understand the net cash. Not just the debt position, Joann, but you have got to look at the net cash position in terms of interest level. So we wouldn’t give a specific number, but we are acutely aware that we still have too much debt on our balance sheet. We worked at it very hard last year, with you know, debt restructuring and equity offering, a dribble out convertible term and prepayment to the VEBA and some payments of the revolver as part of the amended (inaudible) and we are going to continue to work on it. I think that we are focused on inside Ford is best way to improve our balance sheet is to improve the fundamental profitability of the company to generate, and the positive operating cash flow to enable us to pay down our debt. So, that’s our focus at the moment.
Joann Muller – Forbes: Can you elaborate on any actions you might be taking in the coming year?
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
No, I mean, the thing I can elaborate on is we still have a lot of work to do to continue to improve the business, being profitable as we have given guidance and generating positive operating automotive-related cash flow is the single most important thing we do in terms of, I think our balance sheet.
Joann Muller – Forbes: Based on your projections, do you have any estimate on how long it will take you to work that down?
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
We certainly do, but as you would understand, it’s not something we would share outside the company.
Joann Muller – Forbes: Okay, thanks.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
You bet. Katrina, I think we just have time for one more question, please.
OP
Operator
Operator
Thank you. The final question comes from the line of Jeff Bennett representing Dow Jones. Please proceed.
Jeff Bennett – Dow Jones: Thanks very much. Just two questions. Lewis, what are we seeing for the pacing of the commodity price increases, do you think it’s something that’s going to pick up in the middle of the year, or just kind of continually right throughout the year? And then, Alan, are you considering just an entire recall of the vans in China?
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
Lewis will go first here.
LB
Lewis Booth
Chief Financial Officer
Okay. Well, we have already seen commodities start moving starting in the fourth quarter or the third quarter. So, I think we are seeing, you know, a steady increase during the year, but it’s going to be heavily dependent on industrial activity in China, and I think, so we are going to just have to watch this space very closely.
Jeff Bennett – Dow Jones: Okay, thanks.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
And Jeff, with respect to that, the pedal assembly, we have not determined whether we have a problem there yet. What we do know is that, that we found a similar design that, and also the fact that they had switched suppliers to the CPS supplier. So, with what we know, that’s why we are very supportive of it, of the genuine motors and joint venture suspending production for those that less than a few thousand units. And so, we are continuing with our investigation, and then we will, you know, we will take the appropriate action. Also, I would like to just point out that we have found no issues with the customers with this issue in China also. So, but we are going to follow our normal decisive process and understand the issue and then we will move on it.
Jeff Bennett – Dow Jones: Okay, thanks.
AM
Alan Mulally
President and CEO
You bet. Hi, thank you everyone. That concludes today’s presentation. We thank you all for joining us today.
OP
Operator
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today’s conference. This concludes your presentation. You may now disconnect. Good day.