Stuart Grimshaw
Analyst · Jefferies
Thanks, Jeff, and good morning to everyone. We have put strongly with some great Q4 results as we go through today. But the numbers that we're outlining below reflect the continuing drive we have delivered on our vision of serving and satisfying our customers' needs for cash. And as we've always said, that's the driver of everything that happens, and it leads to the great growth we have seen in PLO, which is up 18% to $199 million, and that's driven the adjusted EPS of being up 38% with the diluted EPS of $0.20. We've also excelled in the merchandise margin. We're up 120 basis points to 37%. EBITDA increased 35% to $28 million in the fourth quarter resulting in adjusted profit before tax increasing 38% to $16.2 million. These strong results were driven by exceptional growth in Latin America, and you'll see below that the PLO of 110% to $44 million, this 18 consecutive quarter of same-store PLO growth with this quarter at being 7%. The PLO per store, we set a record of 96,000 per store, the highest since 2008, and we've increased our store count by 84% in LatAm, which is profit before tax increase of 86% to $9.9 million in Q4. Also pleasing was the growth we saw in the U.S. and you'll recall in Q3, we said there was a normally that we did have negative same-store PLO growth, which should concern us that we indicated to you at that time that we put all hands on deck to actually get us refocused on our mission of meeting our customers' needs for cash and this we have done. The reason we have a concern was that typically if we're losing PLO growth, it goes negative, we're concerned that we're losing customers and we reacted appropriately to get it back because it's very difficult for the customer to go somewhere else to get them back over time, and we're pleased to see that the U.S. has returned to the same-store PLO growth of 5% and the highest PLO per store, $305,000 since 2011. Merchandise margin continues to improve to 39% but on adjusted EBITDA up 15% in Q4. The balance sheet remained strong with cash up 74% to $286 million and provides strategic flexibility with us and also credit, the payments from the sale of the Grupo Finmart continues to be received on time in terms of all the schedules that have occurred. Turning out to Slide 4. What we always have this slide, and it reflects the operating leverage in the business. What you'll see across all the U.S. pawn level and Latin America pawn level will continue to see growth in the operating leverage within the company, which is pleasing, and you'll see that, particularly in Latin America, the numbers there on the efficiency are stellar, and this reflects the management team and also the opportunities that we do continue to see in that market where growth is actually coming on the fact of the strong management actions we've taken. On Slide 5, this is a new slide for you, but I think it reflects why we have undertaken the vision of focusing on our customers need for cash. And you'll see this reflected in the adjusted EBITDA numbers, which in '15 were $47.5 million, we're going to this year $100.6 million. This has been driven by 3 levers that customer engagement reflected in the PLO and PSC increases. The sort of the work we've done in the customer product analytics, which have driven us 22% higher annual merchandise growth profit, and at the same time, making sure that we are as lean as we can at the corporate center which produced 17% of annual corporate expense savings. But those three levers have delivered a 28% CAGR over those three year period, which we believe is a great result. Turning now to Slides 6. The recent Q4 I think is quite a great result, you see the momentum coming out of this quarter. The PLO growth up 18%, store count up 27%, EBITDA in Q4 growing at 35% versus the 17% annual and the EBITDA margin showing quite a strong increase. So we believe, and we continue to believe that successful focus on the customer experience leadership, which we've seen reflected in all these measures will continue to drive the revenue growth in FY '19. I'll turn now to Slide 7. We had 94% increase in store count in Latin America over the past 12 months, 80% of that is really from acquisitions with 4% from de novos, and we'll continue to accelerate de novo strategy in the year ahead. This growth has made 28% of total leasing property in Q4 comes from the segment, which is up 17% same time last year. And as you'll see that we invested heavily in our GPMXs we acquired in early October and the first year acquisition of ROIC was around 12%, and we expect that to grow to 15%. But as we do these acquisitions, we always talk about the operating model that we bring to these acquisitions in the first 12 months of ownership, the EBITDA, this has increased by around 40%. So it's been a great, great result, and we think Latin America continues to offer opportunities. However, as you would have seen in the last month, it's not what political and security risk that sits around the business. The comments recently made by a member of the party coming into power, she spooked the markets and to with the ATM fees and transfer fees, none of which actually have any direct correlation to ourselves and then the Latin America and the Mexican economy, we're not seeing as a bank and the regulations are really based around more of the retailing and not on the landing. So we continue to believe that we offer a great service, which is supported by the government, state governments particularly and we'll continue to operate quite successfully in the region. But as we've seen, there is volatility that comes from being in the Latin American countries but with the growth rates coming out of these countries that would also suggest that we should continue to reinvest and invest in it. If I turn now to Slide 8, a new slides, what I want to do here is to show the growth that we've had in the operating cash flow from the company. From '17 to '18, we've increased net cash from operating activities by 53% and obviously, this funding PLO growth, and that's a good cost to have because funding this PLO growth actually ensures that the business continues to grow and delivers cash to us. And if you look at the operating cash flow after that, it's up 65% year-on-year. What we've shown in the slide below is - sorry, in the chart below we showed receipts from AlphaCredit, we've invested about $16 million as we've told you in a number of calls into the refurbishment of the store. So we took the opportunity with the AlphaCredit receipts to actually over invest in the rehabilitation of that store, a lot of which haven't been invested for over 10 years. So this is a one-off catch up, and we do not expect that to be ongoing. And as you've seen through this, we've grown from 25 to 40 this year. As we look at the progress ahead of us, we always want to try to keep it in the $25 million to $30 million. But importantly, if you look at the chart on the bottom, you see the maintenance CapEx running around $11 million, which is about 45% of total profit. Now if we can invest right on 50% of CapEx and growth, that's a pretty good opportunity, and we'll continue to look for those growth opportunities and to return positive for us. I'll say that these - the investment activities are outside of the acquisitions we have made, which are about $93 million and the investments we made in Cash Converters and as you've seen, we took a write-down of the investment. The main cause for that is an industry-wide shares in the subprime market in Australia, which were affected negatively by the result of the announcement of the sale of inquiry following on from the bank commission that has been undertaken in Australia. So the whole market was affected by this. The analyst have an average consensus net profit after tax around $25 million for Cash Converters and a 12-month price target is between $0.40 and $0.50. So as it says, it's 27, there is at the analyst we're looking at is upside there, but there's an overhang from the inquiry that is going to be held in the next month or 2. So I just want to sort of clarify some of those issues while I pass over to Danny.