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EZCORP, Inc. (EZPW)

Q4 2007 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 8, 2007

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Quarter Four and Fiscal2007 EZCORP Conference Call. At this time, I would like to introduce your host,Joe Rotunda. Thank you, and have a great conference. Go ahead, Mr. Rotunda.

Joe Rotunda

Management

Thank you, Lisa. Good afternoon, thank you for joining ustoday. With me is Dan Tonissen, our Chief Financial Officer. We'll beaddressing our fourth quarter and fiscal year 2007 results. I am going to begin with a high level overview of thequarter and the year; Dan will follow with a more in-depth review of thefinancials; and we'll conclude with guidance for the new fiscal year. 2007 has been a busy and productive year for us. In June, wecompleted the largest acquisition in our history: the 15 store chain of JumpingJack Cash pawnshops in Colorado.In August, we entered into an agreement to make the most strategic acquisitionin our history: the 20 store Mister Money pawn operation in Mexico. We just closed this deal in October, a few weeks in to thenew fiscal year. By year-end we opened a 100 new EZMONEY stores, and we grewour chain to 731 stores, compared to 614 stores a year ago. And that doesn'tinclude the Mexicoacquisition. We additionally surpassed, for the first time in ourcompany's history, $1 billion in loans made or brokered in a fiscal year, andwe maintained a strong balance sheet completing all these actions and stillending fiscal year 2007 debt free. As a sequel to our financial performance, we also recordedour 21st consecutive quarter and seventh consecutive fiscal year of earningsimprovements. In fact, after more than doubling quarter four income last year,we are very pleased to report further strong year-on-year improvement in thesame quarter this year. Our fourth quarter net income was $11.2 million, an increaseof 22% on top of the 150% earnings growth achieved in the same quarter a yearago. Our diluted earnings per share were $0.26, and that compares to $0.21 lastyear. For the full 2007 fiscal year, net income grew by 29% to$37.09 million, and our diluted earnings per share grew…

Dan Tonissen

Management

Thanks Joe. Joe gave you an overview of some of the numbers,and I'll give you a little more detail, starting with our statement ofoperations, on page 3 of the earnings announcements. Now, I will start with thefew comments on pawn net revenue. For the quarter our pawn net revenues comprised of salesgross profit, which is lines 2 plus 3, less line 11. Pawn service charges,which you see on line 4 and other revenues on line 6, increased $5 million or14% to $41.3 million. Merchandise sales, line 2, increased $3.1 million or justover 10% to $33.1 million. Same-store sales growth for the quarter wasapproximately 3%. After a 1 percentage point margin improvement, merchandisegross profit. Line 2 minus line 9 increased $1.5 million or just under 13% to$13.5 million. Scrap gross profit, line 3 less line 10, decreased $264,000or roughly 5% to $5.4 million. During the quarter, we scrapped approximately$1.7 million grams of gold jewelry, a decrease of roughly 2% from the prioryear quarter. Our proceeds per gram increased 7% to $10.08, while our cost pergram increased 13% to $7.16. Included in jewelry scrapping sales is approximately$460,000 from the sale of loose diamonds. This is comparable to the proceedsfrom the sale of loose diamonds in the prior year quarter. We typically forward contract our gold scraping, 30 to 90days in advance, and as a result we only realized benefit from the run up inthe gold market that we experience starting in September. For the quarter we turned our inventory 3.5 times, and thatcompares to 3.3 times a year ago. Inventory levels per ending store at the endof the quarter were flat with prior year quarter at a $127,000. Fund service charge revenues, line 4, increasedapproximately $3.7 million or 20% to just under $22.1 million. Same-store pawnservice charge revenue increased 9%. Our annualized…

Joe Rotunda

Management

Thank you, Dan. Looking forward, we will maintain the sameintensity on growing the business, improving profitability, and strengtheningour balance sheet as we have over the past seven years, and we continue toexpect all business segments to contribute with year-on-year growth andimprovements in earnings contribution. In our EZPAWN Operations, our guidance incorporatessame-store mid-to-high single-digit growth in net revenues. Included in this isan average market price of gold at $750 an ounce for the year. In addition, theJumping Jack Cash acquisition's layered in incrementally for the first threequarters of the year. For our EZMONEY signature loan segment, we are planning tocontinue our strong growth trend. Organically, we'd expect significantdouble-digit same-store loan growth. We expect our bad debt to be in the rangeof 26% to 29% for the new year, fluctuating seasonally by quarter. Our guidance on store growth is to add approximately 100 newEZMONEY stores. The new store builds will be in our existing 11 states plus theaddition of Missouriduring 2008. In our Mexicopawn segment, we're going to focus on assimilating the 20 acquired stores in toour infrastructure during the first quarter. We will follow this immediatelywith the integration of our four existing Mexican stores in to theiroperations. During the new year, we plan to add between seven and 10 newpawnshops in Mexico,and in 2008 with a store count in the range of 31 to 34 locations. All-in-all, we're providing guidance for fiscal 2008 of $1.12in diluted earnings per share versus 2007s $0.88, an improvement of 27%. Weexpect first quarter EPS of $0.28 as compared to last years' $0.23, animprovement of 22%. While we were pleased with what we've accomplished over thepast several years, and this past year in particular, our excitement grows aswe contemplate the potential we still have in front of us. That concludes our prepared comments for today. Dan, ifyou'll read the safe harbor, we'll go on to questions.

Dan Tonissen

Management

This conference call and earnings announcement containscertain forward-looking statements regarding EZCORP's expected performance forfuture periods, including but not limited to new store expansion, expectedfuture benefits of acquisitions and investments, and expected future earnings. Actual results for these periods may materially differ fromthese statements. Such forward-looking statements involve risk anduncertainties, such as changing market conditions in the overall economy andthe industry, consumer demands for the company's products and services, actionsof third parties who offer services and products in the company's locations,changes in the regulatory environment, and other factors periodically discussedin the company's annual, quarterly, and other reports filed with Securities AndExchange Commission. Lisa we'll now open up the call to questions

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from theline of Daniel O'Sullivan of Utendahl Capital Management. Please proceed

Daniel O'Sullivan -Utendahl Capital Management

Analyst

Yes. Hi Joe and Dan, thanks for taking my questions. Greatquarter guys.

Joe Rotunda

Management

Thanks Dan.

Daniel O'Sullivan -Utendahl Capital Management

Analyst

Quick question. Out of the entire group, I have to say youguys actually came right in line with my last expectations. Most othercompanies are little bit higher. May you can expand ….

Joe Rotunda

Management

We lost you, Dan. Lisa

Operator

Operator

One moment, his line did [drown]. Please proceed Mr.O'Sullivan

Daniel O'Sullivan -Utendahl Capital Management

Analyst

Can you guys hear me now?

Joe Rotunda

Management

Yeah

Daniel O'Sullivan -Utendahl Capital Management

Analyst

Okay, great, sorry about that. Yeah I was asking about loanlosses. I made a comment that you guys came in right in line with what I waslooking for during the quarter as opposed to some others in this space, whichwere higher. So wondering, if you guys may be have tweaked the underwriting oryour collections, what are your thoughts on loan losses for the quarter?

Joe Rotunda

Management

We did basically what we talked about last quarter. And, ifyou recall, in quarter three we saw that is an opportunity to expand marketshare and we reduced, we adjusted some of our underwriting. We were veryaggressive at the beginning of the quarter, and as we saw our losses, our baddebt, began to increase, all we did was adjust our underwriting. We thought we brought it back in line as we moved throughthe end of the June quarter, and it was pretty much on projection with in apoint or so of where we thought it would be this quarter.

Daniel O'Sullivan -Utendahl Capital Management

Analyst

Okay.

Joe Rotunda

Management

Basically we just followed it through with what we said wewere doing.

Daniel O'Sullivan -Utendahl Capital Management

Analyst

Great. Do you guys feels like you picked up some marketshare in Texas?

Joe Rotunda

Management

Texasperformance has been good. What was really encouraging for us in the quarterwas the growth that we had in fees was actually higher than the same growth wehad in this quarter a year ago, we were a couple of points higher. And when you consider the fact that we added about the samenumber of stores through the quarter end and through the year, a 100 stores onthe basis today of 400 stores that will give you the same lift that a 100 storesdoes on a basis of 300 a year ago or 200 a year before that. So, we werepleased with the performance we had in the growth of business now. As far as taking away from our competitors or peers, I amnot sure about that. I believe, as I stated so many times before, this isprobably $100 billion marketplace, and our industry is only scratching thesurface. We still have (inaudible).

Daniel O'Sullivan -Utendahl Capital Management

Analyst

Okay. Well, I mean, if we take a look at the Texas market,in particular, there is a lot of focus out there that as of way I have beenmentioning more competition and saturation in that market. What your thoughtsthere?

Joe Rotunda

Management

Basically, as I said in past I don't know believe we areanywhere near saturation and I think, I said on the last earnings call or theone before that, we could probably add another a couple 100 stores in Texas andcontinue to grow the marketplace.

Daniel O'Sullivan -Utendahl Capital Management

Analyst

Okay. And Joe, I am sorry, there is (inaudible) just a fewcouple of minutes of the conference call at beginning. Did you talk about yourconsumer loan product and how that's ramping up?

Joe Rotunda

Management

I talked about the installment loan.

Daniel O'Sullivan -Utendahl Capital Management

Analyst

Okay.

Joe Rotunda

Management

We are quite pleased with that and we believe we have armsaround the underwriting and managing the bad debt and we are continuing toexpand it. We will throughout Texas and windupwith 125 stores by the end of fiscal year '08 in Texas and we will take it outside of thatstate as well. And the debit card with overdraft protection, the customertake up hasn't been near where we thought it would be and I believe that theprimary obstacle or issue we have there is that requires the customer to committhe direct deposit of their income into the debit card account and that seemsto be some what of the hindrance on growing it as we thought we would but we'recontinuing to watch it.

Daniel O'Sullivan -Utendahl Capital Management

Analyst

Okay. And one last question just given where we think goldprices over the last few weeks have you guys been opportunistic and maybe scrapit little more than you normally would?

Joe Rotunda

Management

Yeah that scrapping more we have sort of locking in someprices, so we would get out in November, December.

Daniel O'Sullivan -Utendahl Capital Management

Analyst

Okay. And how does that impact the loan to value ratio? Haveyou yet to move that up, I mean, there has been competition in that area?

Joe Rotunda

Management

We haven't, we are still watching that we haven't made anychanges in the last 30 days, we've made several changes, as you know, duringthis past, latter half of this past fiscal year and with that we've been quitepleased because we build our portfolio nicely and our redemptions have beengood and the yield's been very good. We haven't had the forfeitures that we've had in the pastand we haven't been scrapping with the kind of growth that we've had inscrapping in the past. We are continuing to watch it, we haven't been much moreaggressive with pricing at loan [value share].

Daniel O'Sullivan -Utendahl Capital Management

Analyst

Okay. And one last quick one, given where the stock has beenand you guys are sitting at almost $23 million in cash down in September, if youguys can give any consideration through a buyback, has the Board discussed thata lot?

Joe Rotunda

Management

We've discussed a lot of different alternatives, Dan and westill believe that the long-term benefit to our shareholders is best served bycontinuing to invest in earning assets and that's what we are continuing tolook for.

Daniel O'Sullivan -Utendahl Capital Management

Analyst

Okay. So, that wouldn't preclude acquisitions in 08 then?

Joe Rotunda

Management

No, we are very interested in acquisitions that make goodeconomic sense.

Daniel O'Sullivan - UtendahlCapital Management

Analyst

Okay, great. Again nice performance this quarter guys,thanks.

Joe Rotunda

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you Mr. Sullivan. Our next question comes from theline of Dennis Telzrow of Stephens Inc. Please proceed.

Dennis Telzrow -Stephen Inc.

Analyst

Good afternoon, Joe and Dan.

Joe Rotunda

Management

Hi Dennis. Dennis Telzrow –Stephen Inc.: Joe on installment loan product, refresh my memory on whatright were charging there and how's that structured?

Joe Rotunda

Management

It's a five-month product, if you use an APR to calculatethe type of rate that's associated with it. It's about 70% or 75% of the rateson a traditional payday loan.

Dennis Telzrow -Stephen Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And the [pawn] rate there is too soon to tell wherethey sort of go out, I guess, you haven't had it out there long enough?

Joe Rotunda

Management

We have quite a few loans that are out there, but they arelayered with the different levels of underwriting we had, because again it's afive-month loan and as we measured the customers' behavior. In last quarter I actually covered with you all two thingsthat we did to adjust the underwriting and one of which was going to adifferent type of evaluation, a more thorough evaluation of the customer witheven quasi scoring model, and then moving in to direct ACH debit as a convenienceto the customer on their payday or the installment payments, and those are thetwo of the major tweaks that we made in that. We have with those three layers of different types ofunderwriting that we were watching, and that's what's given us the confidenceas we have seen the evolution of the customer's behavior, as those changes thathave been made to move forward with the product now. And it probably would be slightlyhigher than the typical payday loan. Loss rate would be as a percent of these.

Dennis Telzrow -Stephen Inc.

Analyst

And you mentioned possibly going to other states, obviouslythose would have to be states that have an appropriate law or I guess or has aCSO is that correct?

Joe Rotunda

Management

That is correct. We would certainly do it under the auspicesof the appropriate regulations that will allow us to do it.

Dennis Telzrow -Stephens Inc.

Analyst

And Dan, from a cash flow standpoint, how much free cashflow do you think you throw off in '08 excluding any acquisitions obviously?

Dan Tonissen

Management

Well, if you look at the trailing EBITDA, probably about $65million, maintenance CapEx is going to be at the probably around $5 million to$6 million, and then the growth in 100 stores that's roughly $50,000 to $60,000each, and then limited expansions, limited capital used in Mexico. It will besubstantial; I would say in excess of $40 million.

Dennis Telzrow -Stephens Inc.

Analyst

$40 million in excess in free cash flow

Dan Tonissen

Management

Yeah.

Dennis Telzrow -Stephens Inc.

Analyst

Right. Okay. And Joe obviously the challenge in Mexico isbuilding inventories, it just takes maturity to stores for that to happen Iguess?

Joe Rotunda

Management

It does. And I think that we could probably expand a littlefaster to first year, except we are going to go through the pain ofassimilation of the business. We are going to change the operating systems inthe stores that are in Mexicoto our EZ system here. There are a lot of features that [Jose Manuel Fernandez]who runs the business there has found very attractive that will enhance theperformance of the stores there. When you will change the operating system and you have to gothrough the entire organization and teach them how to use it, a littledifferent approach to loan values and so forth. It's going to command a lot ofattention for the first three or four months, and we are going to begin slowlythen after that to expand. We think there will probably be enough inventory to do whatwe need to do, because most of the stores, most of the inventory there isgeneral merchandise, and jewelry is the one category of goods that we can movein as long as it's NAFTA identified product, we can move into Mexico. We think that the first year we will start a little slow andthen we will accelerate it after there, and we think the inventory issue willbe taken care of.

Dennis Telzrow -Stephens Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Mr. Telzrow. And there are probably no questionswaiting from the phone.

Joe Rotunda

Management

Okay. Well, thank you all. We really appreciate your timeand your continued interest in EZCORP.