Patrick Moore
Analyst · Citigroup
Thanks, Reade, and good morning, everyone. My remarks begin on Slide 9. As Reade noted, our business continues to perform well in the fourth quarter. The two fundamental revenue drivers of our business are new store growth and comparable store sales growth. During the quarter, we opened 16 new stores and closed one store. For the year, we opened 74 stores and closed five locations or 6.8% year-over-year increase in unit growth with the openings entirely in our America's Best and Eyeglass World brands. For these two growth brands combined, unit growth increased 10.1% in the quarter. Our 2018 openings were balanced between new and existing markets. In our newer markets, we continue to expand our store base and invest where our new stores are still ramping and building awareness. We note that the majority of our new stores have historically taken approximately three to five years to mature and pay back invested capital. We're excited about these newer markets and see a lot of our potential competitors there. The chart of adjusted comparable store sales growth presents our comps calculated on a cash basis. Same store sales increased 2.9% versus the 10.4% increase in the fourth quarter last year. As Reade mentioned, five stores were closed for much of the fourth quarter due to weather events, which hurt comparable store sales growth by about 40 basis points. As of today two of the stores remain closed. The comp growth was driven primarily by an increase in average ticket with a slight increase in transactions, customer transactions were negatively impacted by the one less selling day in the final week of the year as well as the impact in closed stores. Importantly, comps for America's Best were driven by increases in customer transactions and average ticket and Eyeglass comps were primarily driven by increases in transactions. During the fourth quarter, we generated solid comps in our growth brands compared to strong comparisons in last year's fourth quarter. America's Best and Eyeglass World generated gains of 5.9% and 2.3% respectively. Legacy costs declined 5.6 in the fourth quarter, the brand faced a robust 5.5% comp comparison for the fourth quarter of 2017 which was its strongest comp in almost three years. On a two-year stock, Legacy comps were relatively flat. Turning to income statement highlights on Slide 10. As a result of the solid comp and unit growth, net revenue increased 10.6% to $355.9 million. Revenue growth was positively impacted by about 70 basis points due to the timing of earn revenue. Net revenue included over $9 million from the expanded contact lens distribution relationship with Walmart which benefited revenue growth by approximately 290 basis points but had a minimal contribution to profitability. This line of business is one element of our larger 29- year Walmart relationship. Cost applicable to revenue increased 13.8% or an increase of 130 basis points as a percentage of net revenue versus last year. The increase was driven by the impact from this expanded contact lens distribution relationship with Walmart. Cost to pick applicable to revenue before the impact of the new Walmart business was unchanged as a percentage of net revenue versus last year. In the quarter, we experienced higher optometrist cost that were partially offset by a higher mix of eye exam sales as a result of our growing managed care business. Optometrist-related expenses reflect expanded coverage as well as wage inflation in certain geographic market. For our doctors, we pay competitive salaries for the good work that they do. As Reade noted, we work very hard to attract and retain optometrists and compensation is an important part of this equation and our improved retention rate. SG&A expenses increased 8.8% or a decrease of 80 basis points from a percentage of net revenue versus last year. This decrease was driven by the impact of the expanded contact lens distribution relationship, which benefited SG&A expenses by 120 basis points as a percentage of net revenue. Higher stock compensation and long-term incentive expenses as well as the support of the citizens’ initiative in Oklahoma were partially offset by IPO-related sponsor fees paid last year and lower write-offs with managed care receivables this year. Adjusted EBITDA increased 16.3% and adjusted margin rose 40 basis points to 8.1% in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA growth benefited by 660 basis points from the net change in margin on unearned revenue. We would expect that this timing benefit would reverse to some extent in the first quarter. Depreciation in amortization expense increased 15.4% compared to the fourth quarter last year. The growth primarily reflects our ongoing investments in these stores including the impact of capital leases, our network of optical laboratories, and our omni channel-related investments. Interest expense decreased $5.4 million versus the fourth quarter of last year primarily due to a decrease in deferred debt cost amortization as well as lower debt levels both of which resulted from the $360 million IPO debt pay down in the fourth quarter of 2017. In terms of taxes, we recorded a $10 million income tax benefit this quarter compared to a $47 million dollar tax benefit in the fourth quarter of 2017. This reflected a $7.5 benefit from stock option exercises this year and a one-time $42 million benefit last year associated with the new tax legislation. We project our 2019 tax rate to be approximately 26% excluding the impact of stock option exercises. Adjusted net income increased $4.4 million to a profit of $1 million and excluded the income tax benefit from the option exercises. Adjusted diluted EPS of $0.01 swung to a profit compared to the adjusted diluted loss of $0.05 per share last year. Turning to Slide 11 and our full year results. Our adjusted comparable store sales growth was 5.7%, net revenues were up almost 12% and adjusted EBITDA increased over 10%. This performance highlights the consistency of our business over time. Adjusted EBITDA margin decreased 20 basis points to 11.3%. This production reflects the impact of the expanded Walmart contact lens business and higher public company expenses partially offset by the benefit from the net change in margin on unearned revenue. We're pleased to have delivered relatively stable margins in 2018 as we have continued to reinvest some margin gains into the business. We believe these investments, such as advertising, optometrist's related programs, and omni channel capabilities will help drive continued consistent top line growth and market share gains over the longer term. On Slide 12 at the end of the fourth quarter, our total debt was $578 million and our cash balance was $17 million, net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 3.2 times. We were pleased to receive the corporate credit rating upgrade to be A3 from Moody’s in September which lowered our interest rate on our term loan debt by 25 basis points. In addition, during the quarter we completed a $200 million Term Loan A loan refinancing which lowered the interest rate on that tranch by 75 basis points from the existing loan rate. In January of 2019, S&P raised our corporate credit rating to DD- which triggered a provision that lowered interest rate on our new Term Loan A loan by an additional 25 basis points. We're very pleased with the improvements to our borrowing costs. For the year we invested $104 million in capital expenditures in line with our outlook with the majority of the CapEx Folkestone growth initiatives including our new Texas lab. Turning to Slide 13, now I'll conclude with some commentary regarding our 2019 outlook which we included in today's earnings release. Our 2019 outlook is as follows. Net revenues of $1.675 billion to $1.705 billion adjusted comparable store sales growth in the range of 3% to 5% percent opening approximately 75 new stores, adjusted EBITDA between $186 million and 191 million and a vested net income between $53.5 million and $56.5 million. We project another year, our 18th consecutive year, of positive same-store sales growth in 2019. It's important to remember that while we expect our growth brands to continue to perform well, we will be facing challenging comparisons from the strong comp trend for the last four years especially at our America's Best brand. As a result, we believe it is responsible to plan a business in the 3% to 5% comp range as reflected in our 2019 outlook. Store opening this year will continue to be predominantly America's Best locations with the remainder being Eyeglass World stores. Most of our store growth will be in existing markets and openings are expected to be skewed towards the first half of the year. We project that these store closings as is typical each year. We expect to generate $20 million to $25 million in incremental revenue from the expanded Walmart contact lens distribution relationship, which as noted would dampen our adjusted EBITDA margin due to the minimal contribution to profitability for this line of business. We estimate that our adjusted EBITDA margin before the impact of this incremental Walmart business to be relatively stable despite approximately $4 million in planned incremental investment in cyber security this year. Specifically, the cyber security investment is estimated to have a negative impact of 20 basis points to adjusted EBITDA margin as well as over 200 basis points to adjusted EBITDA growth. We're pleased to be delivering stable margins while making smart investment decisions that will drive future growth. We expect depreciation in amortization of $88 million to $90 million or about 20% growth at the midpoint and similar to our growth rate in 2018. Since 2015, we've been investing at a high rate and increased e-store growth, land and system improvements to support that growth and more recently enhanced omni-channel capabilities. Given the depreciable lives of these investments, G&A growth should continue to outpace revenue growth over the next few years. Finally, we estimate annual interest expense to $36 million to $37 million and CapEx between $100 million and $105 million or very similar to the 2018 level of investment. As you can see from our guidance, we expect another year of consistent growth driven by the underlying momentum in our business. Let me highlight a few other factors that will affect the P&L in 2019. First, the incremental contact lens distribution business with Walmart will increase our cost applicable to revenue as a percentage of revenue and reduce our SG&A expenses as a percentage of revenue. Before the impact of this Walmart business, we would expect generally stable margins in 2019. As a percentage of revenue, we would expect cost applicable to revenue to turn flat to down and SG&A to be flat to up slightly. Second, cyber security is an enhanced focus. This plan formally an investment is a near-term growth pressure but it's an important investment to support the forward momentum of our business. Finally, our new Texas lab is a prime example of growth investments we're making today that we believe will drive future performance. Over time, we expect to see benefits for our unit cost from this lab. In 2019, as this lab ramps up, we expect to see a modest drag to adjusted EBITDA in the range of $1 million to $1.5 million in a similar amount of depreciation. So the overall impact is a little heavier to adjusted net income in the range of $1.5 million to $2 million. As we have indicated on prior calls, we do not provide specific quarterly guidance. However we do want to make sure that you take into account the expected impact of these items on quarter-to-quarter comparison in 2019. We expect that certain items will impact adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter, collectively in the range of $7 million to $8 million. The majority of the estimated impact of these items is timing-related and tied to the net change in margin on unearned revenue as well as the timing of vendor rebates. Additionally, we expect the impact from our investments in cyber security and our continued support of managed care growth. But as you can see from our outlook, we would expect solid adjusted EBITDA growth over the remainder of the year. As a reminder, as we enter our peak selling season, the timing of tax refunds is a variable that can affect our performance between our first and second quarters while our business can experience fluctuations quarter-to-quarter due to timing and other factors. Our business has delivered very consistent results on a semi-annual to annual basis. As of January 1, 2019, we are adopting new lease accounting standards. This new standard alters our accounting for operating leases as we are required to record a right to use asset and corresponding liability on the balance sheet. We estimate that adoption will result in additional assets and liabilities in the range of $325 million to $345 million with no material impact on our cash flows or profitability. Finally, as noted in today's release and 10-K filing, we made immaterial revisions to prior period financial statements related to lease accounting. These revisions were noncash in nature and not related to business operations. As you think about our 2019 outlook and how the impact of these revisions roll forward, we would note that the projected impact to adjusted EBITDA is in the vicinity of $2 million. In summary, we're very pleased with our consistent performance in 2018. We're focused on executing our 2019 growth initiatives and look forward to delivering another year of consistent growth. At this point, I will turn the call back over to Reade.