Peter Kern
Analyst · UBS. Your line is open
Thank you very much, Pat. And good afternoon, everybody. Thank you for joining us. I'll be fairly brief as the fourth quarter, of course, kind of reflected what the rest of the year looked like and so much as it was a bumpy ride. COVID news dominated, of course, everything in travel. And I would say that, we saw a mixed world of some optimism coming from the vaccine rollouts beginning, mixed with obviously very bad news on caseloads across the globe, closures in many countries, restrictions all over the various geographies. So with that, as the background, we're happy to turn the page on the year and move into 2021. I will say that, on the whole, as you saw in our release, booking trends in the fourth quarter pretty much near the third quarter at about down 60% for total gross lodging bookings, net of cancellations that did moderate towards the holiday season. And the end of the quarter, and we saw that moderate into the high 50s down. And that has - that improvement has seemed to continue through January. And in the latter part of January, we've seen down in the high 40s. So, the trends are generally good, although, very bad or for all, going in the right direction. But I would caution everybody that, we continue to expect it to be bumpy as this is a story of a thousand different geographies. And a thousand different facts sets around the virus and, of course, vaccine rollouts, et cetera. We did see that improvement overall, driven by Vrbo, not a big surprise. That continues to be a terrific use case with the whole home market being very attractive. Family travel being very attractive in that form. And North America generally has been a relative bright spot, of course, our relative strength in North America certainly helps us in that. So we continue to hope and expect vaccine rollout to drive consumer confidence and drive things forward. But we certainly are not trying to predict what consumer sentiment will be as the buyers changes over the ensuing months. So we continue to expect a bumpy ride. We are watching for what governments are doing, what the rules may be on international travel or things like travel passports, et cetera, with the goal just of making that process as soonest as we can for our travelers and getting people back moving again. We know there's a lot of pent-up demand, and we certainly want to serve it as much as we can. With that market background in mind, in the fourth quarter, we were investing more heavily in marketing. This was intended to get ahead of what we thought would be the coming demand from the vaccine rollouts, but it was largely focused certainly on the upper funnel brand marketing side on Vrbo, where we knew there was a lot of momentum, and as I've said before on these calls, we are using this moment to try to drive as much brand recognition and long-term value and to the brand over time. So we pushed into Vrbo. On the Performance marketing side, which we view as more of a quick twitch muscle. We have continued to be relatively conservative. Again, we saw lots of closures happen across the globe. Those closures drive massive cancellation spikes. And they can make performance marketing very unattractive very quickly when it goes the wrong way. So we have been relatively conservative. And in that vein, we have actually removed Vrbo from Google's vacation rental meta product. Again, our focus is as much as possible, on driving direct traffic, driving incremental profitability from all our performance marketing and as we see opportunity to remove unprofitable activities, we do that. And as we leg back into a more normal market, we think we'll be able to drive more into the upper funnel, more direct traffic and be much more calculated in performance marketing. On the rest of the marketing side, and this is really about brand differentiation and geographic differentiation. I've talked about this before, but we continue to focus on driving whatever brands make sense, wherever they are in the globe. So for example, we have leaned heavily into our Wotif brand in Australia, a company we bought years ago. It's a very strong domestic brand in Australia, particularly associated with domestic travel, which has been the primary use case, and we're seeing good reaction from the market by doing that. And we are looking at that everywhere. That goes for Vrbo as well, which is not a global brand. It has strength, particularly in North America, but there are parts of Europe where we have other brands that are stronger. Australia, we have another brand called Space - that's stronger. So we are leaning into those and seeing good growth across all our alternate accommodation brands in our strong markets. Longer term, I would just point out that, in addition to driving that brand neutrality, if you will, we are also intending to drive alternative accommodations through our OTA brands. We haven't - we've been saying that for a long time. We are now highly focused on doing it. It's not ready to roll yet. We do, do it, but it is not - the consumer experience is not yet where we want it, but we are highly focused on driving that in the future. And that will be the way we attack markets where we don't have an existing Vrbo or other alternative accommodation brand. And then finally, we continue to do work on the marketing side on just brand differentiation and segmenting the market and Brand Expedia, our biggest pool of OTA brand, will be rolling out in the spring with a new campaign focused on essentially the complete trip, Brand Expedia is the most complete OTA and we are going to focus on people who are trying both multiple things, more complex trips, we think there is a big opportunity there and the brand does sufficiently ran the message over the years, so we are optimistic about the new approach to that. On the other side of the house, and perhaps the most important place we are investing our time, energy and calories which we've talked about frequently, is the tech platform. That continues to be a key focus of ours. I just want to point out this is an area of opportunity for us. It will be years of mining that opportunity, and 2021 is an important year where we expect to have significant delivery on important steps forward on simplifying our tech platform. And we are keenly focused on that, along with being focused on turning ourselves into a Tier 1 tech company and looking for and building systems to find and retain and recruit great talent and retain our great talent that we have and build Tier 1 tech enterprise that focus is keenly on solving consumer problems and our business partner problems, and we think we're well on our way to that. And finally, I'll end with something that's a little less easy to calculate by revenue or margin, but I think it's equally critical to the success of our enterprise going forward, which is that end of this year, we re-landed, reset our company mission, purpose and values with an emphasis on travel being a force for good, bringing people together, broadening horizons and strengthening connections. And we think, obviously, in this time and place that the US and the world is in, that is obviously an important role we play in the world. But we want to bring that to everything we do, everything we do in the product, and really express that through the experience. And in doing that, we also acknowledged as a company that what we do has impact on the environment, and we are refocusing ourselves on the facts that travel creates on the environment, particularly and initially around tools and information to help our travelers and help our suppliers make better choices to help drive better outcomes for the environment. So that's an important push for us. And then finally, we've made some bold, ambitious goals for ourselves around diversity and inclusion in terms of our workforce. And it really goes beyond our workforce because we really want to express that through travel as well. There are many people who have challenges and having successful travel outcomes, we have not done enough to help all people in that. And we want to drive that through everything we do, every time we roll a product out, every time we think about building a product and the consumer experience, and we intend to drive that through the business. So with that, I'll just close by saying expect things to be bumpy for a while. I don't think this is linear, what we've been going through, and I don't think we should expect it to become linear. We are optimistic that when consumer confidence comes back, when people feel confident that the vaccine rollout is going well, that they will be able to travel. We clearly see demand and I think we're just going to power through it. And when consumers are ready to travel, we're going to be there. And with that, I will turn it over to Eric. Thank you.