Bradford James Cooke
Analyst · Gramercy Capital
This is Brad Cooke. We are seeing a worldwide increase in government take from the mining sector. So it's not unique to Mexico. Mexico is actually a bit late to the game, introducing taxes when the metal prices have already dipped significantly. And from our point of view, well from the broad point of view, the general point of view, nobody likes to pay more tax. But to be honest, Mexico was the most attractive jurisdiction for new mine investment for the last decade worldwide. The unique combination there of political stability, open for business, great infrastructure, emerging middle class, low tax rates, prolific mineral potential and other factors, obviously, drove our decision to make significant investments in Mexico over the last 10 years. Changing the rules of the game while many companies are in the middle of significant capital investments, for instance, we just made a big investment in El Cubo, has ramifications, obviously, in general. It makes investors question whether or not this is still an attractive jurisdiction to bring new investments. All of us in the silver sector, excepting maybe 1 company, have operations in Mexico. So it is particularly impacting the silver mining sector worldwide. And all of us, obviously, are going to be looking at more taxes and lower profits. So the main pushback again, industry-wide, will be to tighten up our cost yet again and try and squeeze more cash out of our operations to be able to pay these taxes without dramatically impacting our profit margins. And I think that can and will be done. It does mean that there's some potential for more layoffs industry-wide in Mexico as companies tighten up their operations, and that's not exactly the result that the government was looking for. The more broader impact though, is on new investments. Mexico, having had that significant competitive advantage for many years, is basically giving it away. And now they're either at par or not as good as countless countries like Chile or Peru or Brazil, perhaps even certain provinces and states in Canada and the U.S. So instead of Mexico being the go-to country for silver mining, new silver mining, now, it's just a wide-open playing field. So specific to Endeavour, obviously, we have 3 operating mines there and we're going to do our best to maximize value for stockholders out of those mines. The taxes don't tremendously put us under, but we are in the middle of a major capital investment and to have the rules change is not a very attractive thing for us. We can find a way to pay for these additional taxes and the silver price alone, for instance. And again specific to Endeavour, if you just took this year's anticipated income taxes and compare it to the same numbers under the new rules coming in next year, the difference is north of $6 million. And while we would love to have that $6 million for reinvestment to continue mine expansions, exploration, opening up new mines, et cetera, I guess the government wants that money and they're going to have a right to it and we're going to pay it and the way to adjust for that is to again, tighten up our costs and even if we are unable to do that, if we saw simply a $1 move in the price of silver, that would be enough to offset the additional taxes based on this year's performance. So ramifications are primarily on new mine investments and Mexico has lost its competitive edge.