Aubrey McClendon
Analyst · Tudor, Pickering, Holt
Great. Thank you, Jeff. Good morning. We hope you've had time to review Monday's Fayetteville sale announcement along with yesterday's operational and financial release. We are very pleased with our 2010 results as well as the results from our Fayetteville sales agreements with BHP. Our sale of the Fayetteville strongly validates a critical point we have made for some time. The assets of our company are worth far, far more than what is implied by our current stock price even after the $10 round in the past few months. As first announced on January 6 of this year, Chesapeake has moved into a very exciting phase of our company's history. During which our 25/25 Plan will deliver to investors investment-grade balance sheet metrics resulting from reducing our long-term debt by 25% and best-in-class production growth of 25% during 2011 and 2012. The effect of achieving these two objectives will also accelerate the rapid transition of our capital spending towards higher value liquids-rich plays will be completely transformative for Chesapeake in its investors in the years ahead. And we're certainly off to a fast start in implementing this plan in the first two months of this year. We will continue to focus on profitably harvesting some of the great assets we have gathered in over the past few years. Looking forward to the next five years, through an accelerated development drilling program that is increasingly directed to liquids-rich plays, we believe we can generate $10 billion to $11 billion of EBITDA in 2015. If we are able to do so, then we should be able to increase our enterprise value to a range of $70 billion to $80 billion versus our current enterprise value of about half that. We have the strategy, the land, the science, the people and the capital to achieve this goal and I believe we will achieve it. Clearly, the implied value creation and delivery to our investors from achieving that level of enterprise value is enormous, and we are very excited about delivering it to you in the years ahead. There are two aspects of our 2010 performance that I would like to feature this morning because I believe they are so important to understanding the potential of our future performance. First of all, we were able to double our oil production from about 30,000 barrels per day in the 2009 fourth quarter to over 60,000 barrels per day in the 2010 fourth quarter. Our liquids growth rate was particularly strong in the 2010 fourth quarter, increasing 23% sequentially versus the 2010 third quarter. Secondly, the company through the drillbit developed 5.1 Tcfe of proved reserves in 2010 at a cost of only $1.07 per Mcfe. That means in just one year and just through drillbit, we found more reserves than any of these highly regarded companies have built up in their entire history, Range, Ultra, Southwestern, Newfield and Petrohawk, to name a few, all of them have enterprise values of $10 billion or more. We duplicated or exceeded their reserve base in one year through the drillbit. This is an extraordinary achievement and we hope each of you will reflect on what that tells you about the powerful value creating machine we have built at Chesapeake. It is truly unique in the industry and will create huge value in the years ahead as we rapidly convert our undeveloped acreage in production, proved reserves, cash flow and earnings. Now I'd like to turn to our Fayetteville asset sale to BHP and review its four most important implications for our company. First and most obviously, it is the key to achieving the 25% debt reduction portion of our 25/25 Plan which we believe will unlock the enormous asset value that we have built up inside our company. Second, I would like to point out what this sales price tells you about the value of our remaining assets. Please note that we are selling just 10% of the PV-10 of our proved reserves as of year-end 2010, implying that our remaining proved reserves are worth at least $40 billion. That means that all of our unproved resources, that's 175 Tcf of natural gas and 15 billion barrels of liquids, are valued at absolutely zero at today's Chesapeake market valuation. Where else, but at Chesapeake can you acquire resources of this size and quality for free? World-class resources such as in the Marcellus, Haynesville, Bossier, Barnett, Eagle Ford, Niobrara, Cleveland, Tonkawa, Granite Wash, Mississippian, Avalon, Wolfcamp, Bone Spring and Wolfberry plays to name just the most well-known of our plays with huge amounts of unrecognized upside. And what could these 175 Tcf and 15 billion barrels of unproved resources be worth? We think we have established these various joint ventures into the value paid for our Fayetteville assets that our unproved assets are worth at least what our proved assets are worth or around $40 billion. In addition, we also have $6 billion of non-E&P assets such as our midstream assets and our interest in Chesapeake Midstream partners CHKM in our service company assets, plus $4 billion of drilling carries that are also not reflected in our current market value. Added all up, and I think you can easily confirm asset values of more than $80 billion for CHK. Third, please consider that we are selling the Fayetteville asset that only represents 14% of our production, 14% of our proved reserves, 10% of our PV-10, but yet 20% of our market cap and yet we're still going to be able increase our production this year by about 8% to 9%. Please ask yourselves what other company could sell 14% of its production or 20% of its market cap and still grow production in proved reserves by 8% to 9% in the same year. We think that once again, proved that Chesapeake is unique in its capability to grow production in an extraordinarily efficient and profitable manner. Fourth and finally, our Fayetteville sale accelerates our transition to a more balanced production profile between natural gas and liquids. In 2009, only 8% of our production was liquids. In 2010, we increased it to 11%, but in 2012, we project liquids will make up more than 20% of our total production. And in 2015, our liquids will further increase to more than 30% of our total production mix. Before I turn the call over to Nick for his financial commentary, I'd like to share a few thoughts with you about the macro environment. First and obviously, oil prices should remain strong, maybe even scary strong for years to come. Global oil demand growth appears set to outstrip supply growth at present oil prices, even before considering the potential supply disruptions that may occur as historic geopolitical events unfold before our eyes across the Middle East. The developing world continues to increase its energy intensity and will aggressively compete with the developed world for stagnated oil supplies going forward. We quickly repositioned Chesapeake over the past two years to benefit from strong liquids prices in a technological revolution in our industry that will enable Chesapeake to produce volumes of liquids from unconventional resources that were unthinkable just two years ago. Second, I would like to mention that we have recently enjoyed increasing levels of interest from investors who would like to discuss whether there exists an out year bull case for North American natural gas. We agree that now is the time to examine the North American natural gas market to determine if the worst is over. Even though Chesapeake's transitioned to an oilier asset-based is well underway, and will not change regardless of what happens to natural gas prices in the near term, we would like to remind you that natural gas is of course still important to us, and we still own over 175 Tcf of unrisked natural gas resources under our leasehold. In our delivery of value to shareholders in the future, can exceed the substantial levels I have discussed earlier if North American natural gas prices were able to increase in years ahead. So in these recent discussions with investors, we've been able to identify for them six elements of an out year bull case for North American natural gas that I would like to quickly review with you. First, during the past two years, natural gas has already achieved significant market share gains in the electrical generation market at the expense of coal largely on the basis of price, but also because of environmental issues. Certainly, the social and political acceptance of burning coal in the U.S. will become more challenging than the years ahead, and we expect natural gas to pick up at least 10 to 15 Bcf per day of increased demand at the expense of coal in the electrical generation market during the remainder of this decade. Number two, North America has the lowest natural gas prices in the industrialized world and with much of the rest of the world using oil-based, NAFTA as the fundamental building block for chemicals and plastics, we believe industrial natural gas demand in North America can increase annually by up to 1 Bcf per day as a result of the low prices for natural gas in North America, especially relative to Europe and Asia. Number three, we are finding increasing momentum in the marketplace for CNG vehicle, especially the gasoline and diesel prices continued to increase. Even though our federal government and Congress have yet to understand the importance of CNG to reducing U.S. oil imports, creating American jobs, improving the environment and our economy and enhancing national security, we believe that $4 and $5 gasoline and diesel prices may finally get their attention. In the meantime, the CNG market is moving ahead with virtually every corporate and state and local government fleet in the U.S. considering moving to CNG vehicles, and OEMs are now responding as well. I believe CHK's CNG vehicle team is the best in the country in advising these potential fleet customers on how best to make this transition to American natural gas from foreign oil. Number four, we believe that by year-end 2015, liquified natural gas will be exported from the U.S. and/or Canada to foreign markets connecting, for the first time, North American natural gas markets with higher valued European and Asian natural gas markets. This development will be notably aided by a widening of the Panama Canal in the next few years to accommodate large LNG vessels. We believe LNG exports from the U.S. will be a very bullish event and should begin to effect the back of the natural gas curve once ground breaks on several of these projects by year-end 2012. I will add that Chesapeake is actively engaged in helping to advance several of these LNG export projects. Number five, we believe commercial scale gas to liquids or GTL facilities will be in operation in the U.S. by year-end 2016. When ground breaks on at least one of these projects by year-end 2013, we believe it should also have a very bullish effect on North American natural gas markets. I might also add that Chesapeake is actively engaged in this market as well, helping to advance several GTL projects. Number six, finally, we believe that drilling for natural gas in North America will continue to decline during the remainder of this year and in 2012, especially once acreage in many of the large natural gas shale plays becomes held by production or HBP, especially in the Haynesville. We estimate that the marginal cost of gas supply in the U.S. is around $5.50 per Mcf. Today, drilling economics are being largely ignored as the industry races to hold acreage acquired in the great shale gas landgrab of 2008. As that HBP process comes to an end this year, we believe that natural gas production growth should stop until prices settle in at a long-term price range of $6 to $7 per Mcf. There's one more factor here at work that I'd like to highlight. And I think we can agree that there's almost unanimous consensus among investors and analysts in North American natural gas prices will never increase above a certain long-term ceiling price. For some of you that's $4.50 per Mcf, for others, that's $5 per Mcf and perhaps for others, it's $5.50. We certainly understand the reason for this low current ceiling price unanimity. However, I'd like to remind you that Chesapeake, along with virtually every other natural gas producer both big and small, in both public and private, is responding to the huge return on investment gap that exists between drilling oil wells today versus drilling natural gas wells and we are responding by transitioning our drilling programs as rapidly as we can from gas to oil. To remind you the obvious, we can drill a natural gas well and receive around $4 per unit of production or we can drill an oil well and receive around $15 per unit of production. We believe that once the industry drilling rigs move away from natural gas plays. To oil rig plays, oil plays for the rigs will be drilling wells that produce $15 units in a much more competitive rate of returns, we think the natural gas curve will have to increase to make natural gas drilling competitive with oil well drilling. I do find it curious as investors and analysts believe that somehow, a potential increase in natural gas prices from, say, $4 to $5 or maybe even a $6 per Mcf will somehow bring those rigs back from drilling oil projects where the revenue level will be $15. I guess, today, I should say, $16 or $17 per Mcf. So to me, this is the greatest misconception about the natural gas market today that somehow an increase of $1 or $2 per Mcf in the price of natural gas in the years ahead is going to create a sufficient financial incentive to cause the return of hundreds of rigs from drilling and more valuable oil plays to drilling in less valuable natural gas plays. I can assure you that it will simply not happen without a substantial rise in natural gas prices. I'll now turn the call over to Nick, and we certainly appreciate your time today and to your ongoing interest in our company. Nick?
Domenic Dell’Osso: Thanks, Aubrey. Our fourth quarter and really all of 2010 represent the culmination of a very important shift in our strategy. We believe the success of that shift in strategy will become more apparent with each day during 2011 and 2012. As Aubrey noted in Monday's announcement, we'll lead to a quick win in our plan to reduce debt 25% by the end of 2012. Additionally, the closing of the Niobrara JV facilitates our oil production growth targets as we are now drilling with the benefit of a significant carry in the play. To cover a few quick points on the Fayetteville transaction, the sale represents a true win-win for BHP and Chesapeake, and that we're selling an asset for a very nice return and BHP is a acquiring what we think is a perfect entry into onshore North American market. Given our tax bases and the asset is rather low, we do anticipate a substantial gain for tax purposes on the sale, but expect nearly all of that gain to be absorbed by our NOLs. Of course, as a full cost company, you will see the proceeds from this transaction applied to our full cost pull, and so in the future we'll see a lower DD&A rate rather than a big slug of current income as you would see in a successful efforts company. Our outlook for 2011 and 2012 has been adjusted to reflect the adjustments to production and costs, including this lower DD&A rate as the result of the sale. As stated before, upon closing, we will look to retire $2 billion to $3 billion of our senior notes. Onto the results for the period, we had a very solid 2010 with about a $1.7 billion of net income and $4.5 billion of operating cash flow and just over 1 Tcf of production which equates to adjusted earnings per share of $2.95. Aubrey briefly mentioned our liquids production growth in 2010 which grew over 100% when you compare the fourth quarter of 2010 versus 2009. That increase in our liquids production represented 30% of our overall production increase during a period where we allocated about 30% of our drilling and completion to liquids plays. I'd like to remind you that we plan to allocate 53% and 74% of our drilling and completion capital to liquids plays in 2011 and 2012, respectively. Next, I'd like to touch briefly on our production costs. We experienced an 11% year-over-year decrease to $0.86 per Mcf equivalent. This is best in class by a pretty healthy margin and is aided by a number of factors including the overall scale of our operations. I'd also like to remind you that the LOE that burden that BP's represent is included in this number, so it's still best in class after that affect. Additionally, I'd like to cover a few points on our hedging program. Our natural gas production is currently very well hedged for 2011 and contracts, including contracts already settled, we expect our average realized price for 2011 to be $5.98 per Mcf on gas. We have enhanced our hedge price on gas by selling calls and out years on a relatively small portion of our projected production. I believe that our resulting expected price for 2011 highlights our desire to use our hedging program to chop off the peaks and fill in the valleys of volatile commodity price curves. One of the things that makes this possible is our multiparty hedge facility that allows us to hedge to 12 different highly rated financial counter parties for as much as five years of our production at one time. Today, we have used just over 50% of that capacity. Also, I'd like to remind everyone that given the facility supported by our oil and gas reserves is collateral. If we are ever underwater on our trades, the value of our counter-parties collateral goes up as an offset. As the result of this, it is very difficult for us to ever have a cash collateral call against the facility. However, despite that unlikely scenario, we maintained a significant portion of our reserves as unencumbered collateral. Lastly, on hedging, I'll point out that we have proactively managed down our hedge position for 2011 to take into account the pending Fayetteville sale, so we've already brought ourselves in line with the changing projected production for the year. Looking forward, we're excited to close the Fayetteville sale and as discussed previously have one significant additional JV transaction forecast for the second half of the year. As we will begin to think about that JV a bit more in the coming months, I'd like review the economics of the JV as we see them. You may wonder why we would pursue another JV given the cash created by our Fayetteville sale. However, the returns to Chesapeake and therefore shareholders on assets where we complete JVs are materially higher than should we choose to hold the entire asset. This dynamic is created by the size and scale of the operations needed to develop these fields coupled with the ability to receive our full investment back at the outset of the process. For the JV in place on both the Eagle Ford and Niobrara, our IRR will be about 50% higher than it would have otherwise been. Additionally, our maximum net cash out-of-pocket becomes a very manageable number, allowing us to take the proceeds from the Fayetteville transaction and return them to investors in the company through a debt buyback. So that concludes our prepared remarks for today, and with that, operator, we'll turn it back over to you for questions.